# How long do you think the US government shutdown will last? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2019, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486 "2019-01-09T20:16:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2019, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/81 "2019-01-12T18:30:03Z")
> [@Uncle\_Jocko](#): > > And the talk that’s making me endlessly mad now is the GOP talking point of “The Democrats won’t even negotiate!” > > When your bargaining position is “We won’t even consider your point (re-opening government) until you grant our point ($5.7 billion for the Wall),” it’s absolute bullshit to claim it’s the _other_ side that’s failing to negotiate. I personally think the Democratic offer to fund everything except DHS for the rest of the year and have talks about DHS funding is very reasonable (Transportation, Agriculture, National Parks have no direct connection to border security, why are they being punished?), but I do understand the concept of leverage. Looks like the shutdown will continue until the Democrats start taking President Russian Asset’s demands more seriously. This damn US government- not only does it impose an unacceptable tax burden on the wealthy and intrude on their personal affairs with things like audits and, yanno, laws, but it also hands out, _for free_, things like food, medicine, and education to its citizens. How are Russia and China supposed to compete under these conditions? So, yeah, a monument to hatred against our closest neighbor it is. All of this free trade, cooperation and hard-working, population-increasing immigration is making America too strong for the Russians’ comfort. After the Dems give in to this shutdown, there’s another one due in October… ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2019, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/82 "2019-01-12T18:40:42Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …Sarah Kendzior characterized the shutdown as a [“hostile restructuring.”](https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/status/1083762296239865856) And I think that’s a much more accurate way of describing what we are seeing here. > > The events of the last couple of years have moved so quickly lets not forget the early days of the administration. Steve Bannon. Bannon is a believer in [“The Fourth Turning.”](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/08/us/politics/bannon-fourth-turning.html) > > The goal is to break the system. To bring it to its knees. In the early days of the administration we saw how they approached this: either getting rid of or marginalising the “smart” people and the people not loyal to Trump. Leaving important posts unfilled and departments woefully understaffed. I said at the time that this wouldn’t break the Federal Government. The Federal Government is a huge chaotic “machine” that thunders along like a runaway railway-train. But things would slip through the cracks. Not everything that “used to be done” would get done. Corners would be cut. As anyone who have had to work in situations where you are understaffed and under-resourced we know this would be inevitable. > > And the shut-down is merely another phase in the “stealth civil war.” Because the reality is that WillFarnaby is not alone in his opinions. And in an administration that allowed Michael Wolff to just hang out at the White House, that was unable to stop Omarosa from covertly recording private and confidential encounters, it is very easy to imagine that there are plenty of people running wild in the WH that share WillFarnaby’s views. > > It doesn’t matter that Bannon’s no longer there. His surrogates, like Stephen Miller, are still there and are key in everything that we are seeing happening. Putin wants to break everything as well. And there are others in the administration who just want to make money. Its a perfect storm of evil people with different motivations who have figured out how to take advantage of the stupidest person on the planet to wreck havoc with the most powerful country in the world. > > So how long will this last? > > I’m too scared to make a prediction. The best case scenario IMHO is a couple of weeks-to-a-month from now. For a quick resolution to the shutdown it relies on Republicans putting pressure on McConnell, it needs for someone to figure out a way to give Trump a win without actually giving him anything. Trump is the wildcard. He is thick-as-shit and does whatever the last-person tells him to do. So this could all be over with a single tweet. > > Here’s what I’m imagining the worst case scenario is. > > The shutdown continues. The news cycle moves on. People stop paying attention. > > [Law suits start.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/11/shutdown-air-traffic-controllers-union-sues-trump-administration-.html) The administration looses, maybe they start limited payroll. Or they start to look at ways of replacing federal employees with contractors. They start to sell off the national parks, increase privatization. WillFarnaby is our guide on what they plan to do, just read his posts to get an insight into how they think. > > Trump wants his wall. The goal of everyone else is to break things, to destabilize America, to make money. Looking at it from a distance its fascinating to watch, in a very morbid sense. If you wanted to take over the United States you wouldn’t do it with an army: you would do it with a plan as utterly preposterous as this. So in the worst case scenario when would it end? It wouldn’t. It would evolve, the administration would “rebrand” the shutdown, ignore the law, a new crisis will be introduced, the media moves on, and our perception of what is and isn’t “normal” shifts yet again. > > I’m picking and hoping for some variation of the best case scenario. But the longer this drags out the happier people like Bannon will be. This is everything he’s been dreaming of and more, and it takes him one step closer to his goal. As I said: why drown government in a bathtub when you can just close it for lack of funds? The GOP is finally getting rid of our government; it’s been their goal for decades now. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2019, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/83 "2019-01-12T20:20:37Z")
I don’t think that the problems will ever get through to Trump. But I think that food riots (which are coming at the start of February) will be enough to get through to either McConnell, or to enough Senate Republicans to ditch McConnell. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2019, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/84 "2019-01-12T20:58:09Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I don’t think that the problems will ever get through to Trump. But I think that food riots (which are coming at the start of February) will be enough to get through to either McConnell, or to enough Senate Republicans to ditch McConnell. Are the silos going empty? ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2019, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/85 "2019-01-12T21:43:49Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Are the silos going empty? No, but the food stamp coffers are. And in the near future run, if this fiasco goes on for long, the farmers who depend on government loans and handouts to plant crops won’t be able to, and the silos will gradually empty if nothing is coming in. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2019, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/86 "2019-01-12T22:37:44Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > … food riots (which are coming at the start of February) … This sounds exciting. Who / where do you think there will be riots? SNAP recipients? ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2019, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/87 "2019-01-12T23:53:31Z")
The conspiracy level thinking depends on way too much discipline and control from the Trump Administration and their Republican Party. This is not some secret 4D chess plan. This is more Trump stupidity. The Republicans in the House and Senate were willing to avoid this, so it would only be a matter of time before they’d override the veto if the Trump Administration was going rogue. The only problem with predicting when this will end is Trump’s stubbornness, not some Grand Plan. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2019, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/88 "2019-01-13T00:11:05Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > The Republicans in the House and Senate were willing to avoid this, so it would only be a matter of time before they’d override the veto if the Trump Administration was going rogue. Overriding the veto is the only way I can see this ending. McConnell could make this happen, but it seems like he’s on board the Trump Train on this one (otherwise, he’d have allowed an override vote a lot sooner, knowing how this is damaging Trump and the Republicans). I don’t understand what senate Repubs are doing here, so I can’t see what the end looks like. Something massive would have to shift the calculus (maybe the House threatens to subpoena Trump’s tax returns, maybe he trades the wall against that). I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2019, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/89 "2019-01-13T00:30:23Z")
Yes, of course because of people not getting their SNAP. What the heck do you think happens when people can’t get food? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2019, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/90 "2019-01-13T00:56:30Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Overriding the veto is the only way I can see this ending. McConnell could make this happen, but it seems like he’s on board the Trump Train on this one (otherwise, he’d have allowed an override vote a lot sooner, knowing how this is damaging Trump and the Republicans). > > I don’t understand what senate Repubs are doing here, so I can’t see what the end looks like. Something massive would have to shift the calculus (maybe the House threatens to subpoena Trump’s tax returns, maybe he trades the wall against that). I don’t know. Keep in mind, many, many Republican voters…are not at all poor. They’re suburban and rural. They’re a minority of the American voting public, but the Republicans gerrymandered their asses off in 2010 and won the electoral college in 2016, which means that they owe their allegiance to a plurality that is white, suburban or rural, and fairly well off. As far as they can tell, the bigger political price to pay is to support blue collar government workers. Never forget, folks: behind scumbag politicians are millions of scumbag voters. Time to make them a minority. They need to be dominated. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2019, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/91 "2019-01-13T02:57:30Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Yes, of course because of people not getting their SNAP. What the heck do you think happens when people can’t get food? I would guess they’d pay for it themselves, or find someone else to give it to them. Maybe (but I think it unlikely) we’ll get to see first-hand what happens. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2019, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/92 "2019-01-13T05:29:03Z")
_**“The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.” [COLOR=“White”]…― John Kenneth Galbraith** [/COLOR]_ > [@asahi](#): > > Keep in mind, many, many Republican voters…are not at all poor. They’re suburban and rural. They’re a minority of the American voting public, but the Republicans gerrymandered their asses off in 2010 and won the electoral college in 2016, which means that they owe their allegiance to a plurality that is white, suburban or rural, and fairly well off. As far as they can tell, the bigger political price to pay is to support blue collar government workers. True. There are many millions of well-off white suburbanites who _do_ have empathy for fellow Americans, but these mostly vote for Democrats. Trumpists and/or Republicans (is there a difference these days?) behave like the “conservatives” Professor Galbraith described. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I would guess they’d pay for it themselves, or find someone else to give it to them. Maybe (but I think it unlikely) we’ll get to see first-hand what happens. See? ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2019, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/93 "2019-01-13T06:35:01Z")
Isn’t **H.Ditka** a Mormon? If things go pear-shaped, he will probably still have the church’s charities to fall back on. I think he’s like a lot of younger folks who come up in a right-wing environment, kind of indifferent to the idea of “theoretical” harm to other people. It hasn’t hit him yet that this is real and terrible. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2019, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/94 "2019-01-13T12:17:39Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I would guess they’d pay for it themselves, or find someone else to give it to them. Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses? ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Erudite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Ancient\_Erudite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Erudite)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/95 "2019-01-14T21:21:45Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > I give it about two more weeks. Federal employees will lose one paycheck on Friday. As the second pay period looms, Republicans will cave. Losing two paychecks will turn Republicans into Democrats. Aren’t Federal employees something like 80% Democratic? And aren’t most of them based in DC are, which will never vote Republican. I don’t think the shut down will cost Trump any electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/96 "2019-01-14T21:32:16Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > … this is real and terrible. They’re a bunch of overpaid government bureaucrats. They’ll be fine. Loudoun County is quite literally [the wealthiest county in the country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States#Median_household_income). It is with that backdrop that we should consider the “plight” they face: > [@](#): > > The Loudoun County Board of Supervisors will aid hundreds of area federal employees and contractors facing hardships during the partial government shutdown. > > On Wednesday night, the board approved the appropriation of up to $25,000 in the fiscal 2019 budget for Loudoun Hunger Relief and the Dulles South Food Pantry. Additionally, transit and commuter bus fees will also be waived starting Monday for a period of the shutdown to federal government employees “that are not receiving paychecks,” a phrase that was discussed by board members. > > "There are going to be other things we are going to try and do … but these two things will start to ensure people are eating,” Chairwoman Phyllis Randall (D-At Large) said. “You need to have food, shelter and heat—especially this weekend—and if we can do that that would be real important, and if we can get people to and from work who are not getting paid without costing them money that would all be helpful.”… [source](https://www.loudountimes.com/news/loudoun-county-to-aid-federal-employees-contractors-impacted-by-government/article_fa2b217a-146c-11e9-bb71-aba1d4e0eeec.html) Yes, the poor dears need free bus fare and food pantries or else they’ll freeze to death. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: There aren’t enough eyerolls on the Internet for that bullshit. LMAO. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/97 "2019-01-14T21:43:54Z")
There are federal employees all over the place, and people who depend upon federal employees to be able to do their own jobs even more spread out. Here, let me try to make it relevant to you. Do you ever make use of a grocery store? A non-negligible portion of a grocery store’s profits come from people using food stamps, and it’s an industry with thin margins. If those food stamps skip a month, a lot of them are going to go out of business, and when that happens, you won’t be able to buy food, either. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/98 "2019-01-14T21:51:46Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > … If those food stamps skip a month, a lot of them are going to go out of business, and when that happens, you won’t be able to buy food, either. What’s your estimate of “a lot”? There are [almost 40,000 grocery stores in the United States](https://www.foodindustry.com/articles/how-many-grocery-stores-are-there-in-the-united-states/). How many should we expect will be out of business if SNAP payments don’t go out this month or next? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/99 "2019-01-14T22:25:22Z")
I dunno, maybe half? I’ven’t seen the statistics. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/100 "2019-01-14T22:28:32Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I dunno, maybe half? I’ven’t seen the statistics. LOL, alrighty then. I’ll tell you what, I’ll spot you 25% and join you in screaming about how the sky is falling when one quarter of grocery stores go out of business, ok? Hell, I’ll even throw in some singing of your praises and tell you how sorry I am that I voted for Trump and that you were right all along. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486.md?page=6)