# How long/much of a lockdown will people tolerate? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 18, 2020, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747 "2020-03-18T18:55:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/81 "2020-03-22T02:33:25Z")
I think a lot of people are going to start seriously considering whether an economic depression is worth slowing down a virus that kills about 0.5% of the people who get it. Yeah even at that number the numbers dead are still huge. 5 billion people on earth may be affected, which means 25 million deaths globally. But I think people are going to start seriously considering which one is the worst of the two scenarios. A global depression or 25-50 million elderly people dying. Assuming those are our only two options. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/82 "2020-03-22T02:34:00Z")
I should add, the unintended consequences of these quarantines and other measures can be incredibly complicated. It takes trained professionals decades of study to figure out all of the details. Which is why it’s a good thing that we have those trained professionals, who have been studying it for decades, at places like the CDC. And the CDC has not recommended most of the quarantine actions that have been taken. For instance, they only recommend closing a school if there’s a diagnosis of a student or staff member. Is it really safe, in a crisis, to ignore the people most qualified to give advice? ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/83 "2020-03-22T02:51:33Z")
If we were just doing it on instructions, sure, I could see the problem. But people are also doing it because they’re scared of contracting the disease. The reason people turned so violently towards it is fear and the need to be doing what they can to stop it. So the only way I see it easing up is if the numbers of people who have it decrease. And then they’ll increase again when there is a new outbreak. But then that would be appropriate. There was a study from the UK saying that serial isolation is actually the most effective method, more effective than even longer isolation periods. Basically, when the outbreaks are contained, you relax the isolation, but bring it back with the inevitable outbreak. This still results in fewer people getting the disease overall, and keeps things spread out. So, sure, isolating for the whole 18 months is unlikely to hold. But it won’t have to, if we listen to the science. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/84 "2020-03-22T03:24:51Z")
I have merged two similar threads. Colibri Quarantine Zone Moderator ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/85 "2020-03-22T03:34:57Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > That long a time period isn’t needed. If everyone around the world stayed home for 3-4 months we would knock out the virus. We’d knock out half the economy, too. Unemployment would exceed twenty percent; there would be severe shortages of rudimentary goods. “Everyone” is totally impossible, anyway, but even if we limit this to everyone except medical staff, cops and soldiers and the guys who keep electricity and water flowing, it’d blow the economy up. Sending everyone home for four months would be a disaster as bad as a pandemic. A better strategy is needed. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/86 "2020-03-22T04:03:18Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > it’d blow the economy up Too late; it’s blown up like Sgt. Hulka. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/87 "2020-03-22T04:50:19Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I think a lot of people are going to start seriously considering whether an economic depression is worth slowing down a virus that kills about 0.5% of the people who get it. Why did events start shutting down before US quarantine orders were issued? Liability. Do you cancel or postpone and lose some money; or do you go ahead, suffer casualties, and get sued to hell, maybe with criminal charges too? A local low-life bar broke the governor’s closure order; they lost their licence and lease and have a nice bright sheriff’s tape across their door. How many business folk will risk total destruction for a violation? IMHO lockdowns will be tolerated until businesses think they can escape punishment. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/88 "2020-03-22T06:11:47Z")
> [@R3d\_Anonymous](#): > > Secondly, damage to mental and social health of citizenry. It’s being trivialized in the rhetoric of, “Your grandparents fought a war, and you’re simply being being asked to stay home.” But it doesn’t consider the fact that legitimate human interaction is an irreplaceable need for most. And this is not just at any other time, but in a time of great uncertainty and panic, where this sort of contact is even more so naturally sought out. This, exactly. I live alone, and haven’t spoken face-to-face with another human for a week, except to say “thank you” at the supermarket. My local hangouts have closed. My place of business has closed. I have spoken with others on the telephone; but infrequently; and it doesn’t match a face-to-face conversation. I talk to my cats more often than I usually would, simply to use my voice. It may be true that my parents and grandparents fought wars, but they never had to do so without face-to-face contact with other human beings. I know that all these precautions, bannings, closures, and cancellations, are all for our good; but I am tempted to say, “Screw this, let’s just go back to normal, and let the chips fall where they may.” I’m old, and the chips may well fall on me, but fercryingoutloud, I’m not sure how much more I can take of this. I miss talking face-to-face with my friends. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/89 "2020-03-22T06:25:58Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Sending everyone home for four months would be a disaster as bad as a pandemic. A better strategy is needed. :dubious: Maybe gather everyone who is infected in unpopulated areas and nuke it? Dude, right now anyone who can come up with a …a “better strategy” is going to be richer than Bezos, Gates and Buffet, combined. The planets’ brightest mind (_the best men!)_ are on it. Its not like they have missed the obvious problems with the present approach. ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/90 "2020-03-22T06:30:29Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > I have merged two similar threads. > > Colibri > Quarantine Zone Moderator Oh, well i won’t start a new thread and will ask here. Its a couple of months from now, consider the following exchange. Cop who has pulled driver over: “Where are you going”? Driver: “What did you pull me over for? You don’t have probable cause for anything.” Cop: “I’ll ask one more time. Where are you going.” Driver: “Then i’ll exercise my right to not speak” Cop: “Out of the car, hands behind your back.” (Applys handcuffs and places driver in back seat. Drives him downtown and charges him with breaking quarantine. Driver later says he was driving to grocery store, is told ‘tough shit’ shouldn’t have been a smartass.) Do you think the driver is out of line? The cop? Would you resist arrest? ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/91 "2020-03-22T06:31:57Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > :dubious: > Maybe gather everyone who is infected in unpopulated areas and nuke it? > > Dude, right now anyone who can come up with a …a “better strategy” is going to be richer than Bezos, Gates and Buffet, combined. The planets’ brightest mind (_the best men!)_ are on it. Its not like they have missed the obvious problems with the present approach. My suggestion to open a restaurant called “The Immune Herd” staffed only with immunized people and allowing in only immunized people was met with…indifference. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/92 "2020-03-22T13:15:07Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > :dubious: > Maybe gather everyone who is infected in unpopulated areas and nuke it? > > Dude, right now anyone who can come up with a …a “better strategy” is going to be richer than Bezos, Gates and Buffet, combined. The planets’ brightest mind (_the best men!)_ are on it. Its not like they have missed the obvious problems with the present approach. South Korea is clearly doing a smarter job. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/93 "2020-03-22T13:18:49Z")
The problem isn’t in coming up with a better strategy. The problem is in getting people to listen to the better strategies. I’ve actually got people calling me a troll in another thread because I’m saying to follow the CDC guidelines (which are much less severe than what most people are doing). ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/94 "2020-03-22T13:33:37Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The problem isn’t in coming up with a better strategy. The problem is in getting people to listen to the better strategies. I’ve actually got people calling me a troll in another thread because I’m saying to follow the CDC guidelines (which are much less severe than what most people are doing). A lot of people are still not taking it seriously. Last night our store was crowded again and the lines were long. At one point a foursome of folks (I am guessing husband, wife and two early teenage kids) made it to the front of the line and placed down their purchase: a single package of Klondike bars. What would you do for a Klondike Bar? Catch or spread coronavirus? In normal times of course it is not unusual for several people to be out together shopping for one or two items. But I struggle to think of a reason why four people would be together in a crowded store to get one dessert. Do they not watch the news? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/95 "2020-03-22T13:59:16Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > South Korea is clearly doing a smarter job. One of the ways South Korea got ahead of it is that they have a law that allows unlicensed test kits to be used in a public health emergency. That’s why they were able to do such high levels of testing right away. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/96 "2020-03-22T15:25:09Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Too late; it’s blown up like Sgt. Hulka. There is a difference between “recession” and “total collapse.” This is going to be a bad, bed recession, but one was coming anyway. The economy in a recession still works. Food can be purchased. The electricity remains on. Water will still run into your house. The apparatus of state works. Have everyone stay home for six months. Those things will not be true. ---
**Author:** ![R3d\_Anonymous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aeb1de/32.png) [@R3d\_Anonymous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/R3d_Anonymous)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2020, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/97 "2020-03-23T03:55:43Z")
The Australian Prime Minister is telling his citizens to expect 6 months of restaurants, pubs, gyms, etc being closed. This is starting to look frightening and as if it might actually be attempted to pull off. ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2020, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/98 "2020-03-23T04:08:13Z")
Look for Halloween to go bye-bye…but when they come after Thanksgiving and Christmas is when the riots start ---
**Author:** ![R3d\_Anonymous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aeb1de/32.png) [@R3d\_Anonymous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/R3d_Anonymous)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2020, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/99 "2020-03-23T06:51:12Z")
Andrew Cuomo is saying 4, 6, 9 months. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2020, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/100 "2020-03-23T13:52:12Z")
Apparently none at all, [according to this CNN article](https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/us/california-stay-at-home-beach-goers/index.html), showing crowded beaches in California, and Florida boat owners having boat parties, in some cases “rafting” – tying multiple boats together – to have even bigger parties! :mad: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747.md?page=6)