# How long/much of a lockdown will people tolerate? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 18, 2020, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747 "2020-03-18T18:55:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/162 "2020-03-26T11:58:22Z")
My cite does not back you up actually, as at the time of its writing there weren’t any 10-20 year olds in ICU. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/163 "2020-03-26T12:04:29Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > My cite does not back you up actually, as at the time of its writing there weren’t any 10-20 year olds in ICU. > [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …what you don’t seem to understand here is what is meant by _vulnerable_. Those 70 plus people that are wandering around the supermarket are probably more likely to be hospitalised and die from Covid-19. But the 22 year-old waiter or the 19 year-old student are equally vulnerable to catching and spreading Covid-19. And being 22 years of age does not make you immune to being hospitalised or from dying of Covid-19. **There are people that age tying up hospital resources on ventilators as we speak.** …what my cite said: a twelve year old on a ventilator. What your cite says: a (small) percentage of 20-30 year old people in ICU. Both cites back up what I said. Nothing I said spreads panic and misinformation. I made a simple, factual statement that both my cite and your cite backs up. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/164 "2020-03-26T12:07:59Z")
Whatever you say. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/165 "2020-03-26T12:24:37Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > Why? When I went to the grocery store there were several elderly people easily plus 70 years walking around with no masks on. > > Those are the people most vulnerable and should be quarantined. > > NOT the 22 year old waiter who just lost his job or the 19 year old whos college was closed. > > No, I know darn well how this virus works plus I see the economic and social impact on our society. You may understand how the virus works and not understand the impact it will have on the health system. I’ve got news for you: one in six people will need hospitalization, and many of those one in six are well below the age of 70, and in some cases, quite young. More than that, it’s not just old people getting sick - that’s a terrible misconception. It’s anyone with an underlying condition, and guess what? About 40% of this country has a huge underlying condition called obesity. It’s a numbers game, Urban. The health system hasn’t calculated the epidemic. It never factored that into the system the way it did even a bad strain of influenza. Do you get that?! If young people say “Screw it, I’m gonna live life” and go out infecting just other young people, you’re going to have tens or even hundreds of thousands of other young people so sick that they will stagger into ICUs all over America gasping for air. And if you get enough of them concentrated into one place at the same time, that creates a health triage crisis. But beyond that, who exactly is the young waiter supposed to serve food to? Who are your consumers going to be? Who’s going to consume and keep the economy going – fresh college graduates with six figure debt? I mean get real. You fundamentally don’t understand what’s going on. Take a break from Fox News and do some reading once in a while. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/166 "2020-03-26T12:31:04Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You kind of are spreading panic. A pretty insignificant number of 10-20 year olds will need ventilators. [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21190033/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-by-age) That’s true, but pretty unimportant to point out. It’s not an insignificant number overall, across all ages. The 10 or 12-person medical team of anesthesiologists, radiology technicians, ER physicians, pulmonologists, and other members of the medical team and assistants really don’t have time to consider someone’s age. The bodies just start piling up to the point where they not only can’t do their job, but end up getting themselves sick, putting even further strain on the system. I’m not saying you’re doing this, but nitpicking about who’s most at risk is a fool’s errand. What really matters is getting the total numbers of infected down, getting the number of disease vectors down. It’s a game of math, and we’re losing. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/167 "2020-03-26T12:48:18Z")
I think a good way to illustrate the math wrt to the “flattening the curve” is talking about hospitalizations. If 50% of America gets covid-19, an average of about 20% will require a hospital stay, (330M×.5×.2) so about 33M. In 2018, the CDC said there was about 7.9% of Americans who required a hospital stay, (330×.079) so about 26M. There’s probably some overlap of people who would’ve required hospital treatment but you can see this conservative estimate shows hospitals will likely have over double the normal patients this year. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/168 "2020-03-26T14:39:33Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > You fundamentally don’t understand what’s going on. Take a break from Fox News and do some reading once in a while. Maybe you need to take a break from CNN. Well we will just have to see now wont we. I guess if your right and millions of people under age 60 start flooding our hospitals and later our cemeteries, you will be right. Right now thousands of spring breakers have recently returned from going their usual crazy selves in Florida and yes, some have been reported to have the virus. Lets see what happens. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/169 "2020-03-26T14:45:57Z")
[QUOTE=Banquet Bear;22210678 This…isn’t how ANY of this works. This [animation] ([Viral animations explaining the importance of social distancing during coronavirus pandemic](https://www.dezeen.com/2020/03/22/coronavirus-animations-toby-morris-siouxsie-wiles-design-graphics/))shows how viruses spread. You could have zero connections with China, and only a single case of Covid-19 and you would get the same exponential explosion of cases. [/QUOTE] I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands. Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I’d think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/170 "2020-03-26T15:14:39Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. . Maybe we shouldn’t be washing our hands so much. We are robbing our grandchildren’s fresh water supply. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/171 "2020-03-26T15:23:34Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands. > > Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I’d think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November. Just imagine how many people have been infected by pot luck meals! CMC fnord! ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/172 "2020-03-26T16:51:32Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands. > > Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I’d think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November. That and as some scientists are pointing out, real-life infections don’t work the way some of the numbers are being presented. The 1 person=2.3 new infections for instance. In reality, since most people tend to interact with mostly the same people everyday, so infections don’t spread as fast and can be contained. The lockdown is necessary though. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2020, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/173 "2020-03-26T21:41:15Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. …this was a simplified animation put together by the [head of the Bioluminescent Superbugs Lab at the University of Auckland](https://thespinoff.co.nz/author/siouxsie-wiles/) to help laypeople like you understand how Covid-19 spreads, and how social distancing can break the chain of transmission. So don’t fight the hypothetical. > [@](#): > > A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands. in other words, a sick person might not give it to someone else because they are practicing safe distancing? Congratulations. You might finally be understanding how this all works. > [@](#): > > Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I’d think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November. In the last few minutes America raced ahead of both China and Italy in number of [total cases of Convid-19](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/). Considering how little testing is happening and the inconsistency of how different states are handling this crisis the actual number is probably significantly higher. And considering how weak the Federal response has been I think we are going to see this number spiral out of control. This has \*barely \*started for America. The worst is yet to come. Save lives. Just stay home. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/174 "2020-03-27T02:45:45Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > Maybe you need to take a break from CNN. > > Well we will just have to see now wont we. I guess if your right and millions of people under age 60 start flooding our hospitals and later our cemeteries, you will be right. Right now thousands of spring breakers have recently returned from going their usual crazy selves in Florida and yes, some have been reported to have the virus. Lets see what happens. They may not be flooding the cemeteries (yet), but they’re flooding the hospitals already. [![](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/figures/mm6912e2-F2.gif) ](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/figures/mm6912e2-F2.gif) Whether they die or not isn’t the only consideration; if you encourage young people to carry on as if this isn’t a big deal, you’re going to crush the healthcare system. As I’ve said: the healthcare system doesn’t have enough beds, enough doctors, enough medicines. We’re in the early innings of a long game, urbanredneck. And the hospitalization rates and the fatality rates are growing **exponentially**. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2020, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/175 "2020-03-27T03:28:27Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > Maybe you need to take a break from CNN. > > Well we will just have to see now wont we. I guess if your right and millions of people under age 60 start flooding our hospitals and later our cemeteries, you will be right. Right now thousands of spring breakers have recently returned from going their usual crazy selves in Florida and yes, some have been reported to have the virus. Lets see what happens. The CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report has an article posted on [Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w) The money quote: > [@](#): > > Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table). Let that sink in: very nearly half (48%) of those admitted to an ICU were working-age adults, aged 20 to 64. They weren’t admitted to ICU for shits and giggles; they required extensive medical intervention, which may or may not have included ventilators. The younger you are, the more likely you are to survive a spell in ICU, but that is still a bed occupied and staff involved, which works only as long as the beds and staff are available. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/176 "2020-03-30T18:33:48Z")
Florida finally issues a stay at home order, for only half the state. The spread is already exponential. [https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490159-governor-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-south-florida%3Famp](https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490159-governor-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-south-florida%3famp) ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/178 "2020-03-31T12:45:24Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > I wonder how much the fact that it’s Trump is making this more controversial than it should. For one thing, one of the drivers of the “let’s sacrifice Granny on the alter of Mammon” trial balloons is fear on the right that the GOP is big-red-capital-Superman-“S” screwed as a result of Trump’s bungling this crisis. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/179 "2020-03-31T13:36:22Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > They may not be flooding the cemeteries (yet), but they’re flooding the hospitals already. > > [https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/figures/mm6912e2-F2.gif](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/figures/mm6912e2-F2.gif) > > Whether they die or not isn’t the only consideration; if you encourage young people to carry on as if this isn’t a big deal, you’re going to crush the healthcare system. As I’ve said: the healthcare system doesn’t have enough beds, enough doctors, enough medicines. > > We’re in the early innings of a long game, urbanredneck. And the hospitalization rates and the fatality rates are growing **exponentially**. Does the US have a website with a detailed national epidemiological summary, the way Canada does? > **[Home - Canada.ca](https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/)** > > Get quick, easy access to all Government of Canada services and information. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/180 "2020-03-31T14:57:36Z")
Well if news from Italy and Spain are to be believed, 3 weeks is when people start to seriously chafe > **[Subscribe to read | Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/eb81dc96-c2bd-4c1c-ac8a-bf88653b0b8d)** > > News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2020, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/181 "2020-04-01T19:20:50Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Well if news from Italy and Spain are to be believed, 3 weeks is when people start to seriously chafe > > [Lockdown fatigue hits as Europe enforces coronavirus restrictions ](https://www.ft.com/content/eb81dc96-c2bd-4c1c-ac8a-bf88653b0b8d) We’ve been effectively isolated for five weeks and we’re not chafing, only bored. YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747/182 "2020-04-12T07:57:35Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Even with some countries paying most of an employee’s salary to stay home, I don’t see how a half-year or longer shutdown would be tolerated anywhere. In Australia, there is a general understanding that 6 months is a long as the government can afford to pay people to stay at home. It’s not just the people who’s nerve is going to break after 6 months. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-much-of-a-lockdown-will-people-tolerate/849747.md?page=10)