# How long should it take to find the WMDs in Iraq? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 9, 2003, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133 "2003-05-09T16:11:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/1 "2003-05-09T16:11:09Z")
Seems like there have been a lot of threads started along the lines of: “Why no WMDs yet?” Here’s your chance to debate the actual time you are willing to give the US to find these imfamous WMDs in Iraq. According to [this article](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030504/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_weapons_hunt_2) there are currently 200 US experts searching, with an additional 1,000 to be added shortly. > [@](#): > > Hopes now may lie in greatly expanding the search effort. Advance teams for a group of some 1,000 experts, including former U.N. weapons inspectors and experts in intelligence, computers, demolition and such have started to arrive in the region to set up a larger program for analyzing intelligence, interrogating prisoners and scouring suspicious sites. > > The new group will take control of the roughly 200 experts who have been searching so far, bringing additional expertise to the task. But officials say it is likely to be a couple of months before they are all assembled in Iraq. I had this discussion w/ Randy Spears quite awhile back and we agreed on a compromise position of 4 months. Roughly the amount of time that the UN inspectors were looking before Bush started the war. But that’s somewhat political, since it relies on a fairly arbitrary time frame. Still, I think something in the range of 4-6 months should be enough. With pretty much open access to the whole country, and the help of some Iraqi scientists, we should be able to turn up something substantial if it exists. Thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/2 "2003-05-09T16:21:48Z")
Sounds good to me. ---
**Author:** ![CyberPundit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/76d3ee/32.png) [@CyberPundit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyberPundit)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/3 "2003-05-09T16:55:25Z")
The problem is that the longer the WMD are left lying around the more chances that they will be taken by remnants of the Baath regime or even looters and sold on the black market which would defeat the whole purpose of the war. Given the stories of widespread anarchy especially in the first couple of weeks it’s likely that it’s already happened. This is the key difference with the inspections. The inspections were taking place in a framework where there was strict central control over the weapons. By destroying central control the US has made it much more likely that the weapons will go missing. You can’t compare the time inspectors would have taken with the time the US forces have; it’s a completely different and vastly more urgent situation. It was always going to be extremely difficult to find the weapons which was a major reason I was opposed to the war. However even given this, the administration has been extraordinarily lax in hunting them down: eg. the story of looting at a nuclear site **after** US troops were assigned to protect it. ---
**Author:** ![X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/bbe5ce/32.png) [@X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/X_Slayer_ALE)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/4 "2003-05-09T17:07:59Z")
3 months to find the first ones. more afterwhich to follow up, as needed. A year after the start of the war, if no substantial number of WoMD are found, a congressional investigation must be launched to find out why there arent any WoMD found and was the war in Iraq justifiable in its commission. That should pretty much guarantee that Bush be a one term prez. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/5 "2003-05-09T17:19:11Z")
Won’t happen, **X**. Congress is controlled by Bush’s own party, which has a deeply-vested interest in _not_ embarrassing him. The Democrats dare not risk looking whiny. Neither party’s people dares risk the question being turned on them of why they didn’t inquire more closely before signing the blank check. Although Bush claimed he didn’t need the resolution, it did have the effect of making Congress an accessory to the decision - sorta like a Mafia boss making every one of his crew participate in a hit to keep them from squealing, ya know? ---
**Author:** ![X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/bbe5ce/32.png) [@X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/X_Slayer_ALE)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/6 "2003-05-09T17:44:55Z")
Unlike the Mafia, congressmen rely on popularity to stay in power and next year being an election year with no real contender on the democratic side, they may well resort to an investigation to hedge their bets. Most of congress were not privy to all of the intelligence information. They can call for an accounting as to why they were “misled”. ---
**Author:** ![ElJeffe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/958977/32.png) [@ElJeffe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElJeffe)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/7 "2003-05-09T18:09:36Z")
CyberPundit: > [@](#): > > This is the key difference with the inspections. The inspections were taking place in a framework where there was strict central control over the weapons. By destroying central control the US has made it much more likely that the weapons will go missing. > You can’t compare the time inspectors would have taken with the time the US forces have; it’s a completely different and vastly more urgent situation. While situation is certainly different, I disagree that it’s more urgent. While there may be an increased risk of WMDs “disappearing”, the production and development of those weapons has ceased, as has the chance of Saddam donating any weapons to terrorist causes. Overall, I would say the overall risk has decreased. While the WMDs should certainly be found ASAP, I think the situation is now _less_ urgent, and I’m willing to grant inspectors more time than I would’ve pre-war. I’d say 4-6 months should do. After that, we should probably conclude that any great quantities that may have existed have been moved, were destroyed just before or during the war, or weren’t there to begin with (my money’s on the first option). Then again, Iraq’s a big place, and hunting for something can be an indeterminate process. If asked to give a time frame to hunt down my missing keys in my house, I’d have no idea what sort of figure to give. Could find them in 5 minutes, could find them in a few days - depends on where they are. If all the WMDs are hidden in some abandoned residence somewhere, who knows how long it’ll take? Jeff ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/8 "2003-05-09T18:11:23Z")
**X** , complicity doesn’t end with Congress, either. It extends to that portion of the _citizenry_ who were, and are, cheering the effort on unquestioningly. It’s very difficult for a human to face the possibility, not only of having been wrong, but of having been _fooled_, so any approach that lets the citizenry avoid that will probably be successful. If it falls under the weight of cognitive dissonance, then yes, you’ll see a scapegoating fest. But, that would require some positive, inescapable, widely-publicized proof that those wascally WMD’s did not exist, and that conclusion is easily evadable by means we’re seeing every day right now. There’s not even a public outcry to get that long-stalled 9/11 investigation going, a year and a half later, is there? You’re right, the things you mentioned _should_ happen. But don’t hold your breath. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/9 "2003-05-09T18:12:42Z")
Cyber: That was a nice anti-war post. How about weighing in on the debate of this thread? How long are you willing to give the US troops to find the weapons before you say “there aren’t any”? ---
**Author:** ![X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/bbe5ce/32.png) [@X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/X_Slayer_ALE)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/10 "2003-05-09T18:23:23Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by ElvisL1ves \* > \*\ ***X** , complicity doesn’t end with Congress, either. It extends to that portion of the _citizenry_ who were, and are, cheering the effort on unquestioningly. It’s very difficult for a human to face the possibility, not only of having been wrong, but of having been _fooled_, so any approach that lets the citizenry avoid that will probably be successful. \*\* I dont place myself under the category of being “fooled” by anyone. The reasons as presented were adequate for the time. I am satisfyied with the results so far and am willing to wait a reasonable amount of time to clear up all the details. War is not a venture that is best handled in a democracy. It takes a leader and in this country, the actions of the leader are accountable to the public. The anti-war crowd have not disappeared. They were temporarily silenced by the events that proved them partially wrong. But important issues still remain to be addressed and the location of the WoMD is paramount among them since it was the impetus for this war. One way or another, this issue will be settled. I dont know if it means anything to this thread, but I was never at issue with the whole WoMD thing anyway. I wanted Saddam outta there. The actual issue (for me) was is Saddam’s non-cooperation. So whether or not WoMD are found is inconsequential to me. ---
**Author:** ![Age\_Quod\_Agis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d07c76/32.png) [@Age\_Quod\_Agis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Age_Quod_Agis)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/11 "2003-05-09T18:31:25Z")
> [@](#): > > _Cyberpundit:_ > The problem is that the longer the WMD are left lying around the more chances that they will be taken by remnants of the Baath regime or even looters and sold on the black market which would defeat the whole purpose of the war. Given the stories of widespread anarchy especially in the first couple of weeks it’s likely that it’s already happened. Why do you assume that? If I was a looter, I think I’d be picking up tv’s and food instead of canisters of anthrax or weaponized uranium, even assuming that I knew where the Iraqi army kept their WMD. > [@](#): > > _Cyberpundit:_ > This is the key difference with the inspections. The inspections were taking place in a framework where there was strict central control over the weapons. By destroying central control the US has made it much more likely that the weapons will go missing. > You can’t compare the time inspectors would have taken with the time the US forces have; it’s a completely different and vastly more urgent situation. I see on preview that the wise and inimitable **El Jeffe** has already posted on this. > [@](#): > > _Cyberpundit:_ > It was always going to be extremely difficult to find the weapons which was a major reason I was opposed to the war. Interestingly enough, that’s one of the reasons I was in favor of the war. Everyone agreed that Iraq either had WMD, or was desperately trying to get them, and I thought Hussein was a threat to use them. But UNMOVIC was unlikely to ever find Iraq’s WMD or WMD program. So I didn’t (and don’t) see any point in giving them more time. > [@](#): > > _Cyberpundit:_ > However even given this, the administration has been extraordinarily lax in hunting them down: eg. the story of looting at a nuclear site after US troops were assigned to protect it. I haven’t seen this story, but I’d obviously be interested. Could you post a cite, please? And I think your example is odd, given that the administration didn’t appear to be lax; after all, they ordered the nuclear site protected, which is exactly what they were supposed to do. It seems, if anything, the military personnel at the site were lax. As for the OP, you can probably tell that I’m not overly concerned with finding WMD. Stopping Saddam’s WMD development program, combined with freeing the Iraqi people, is plenty of justification for the war. I have no time frame. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/12 "2003-05-09T19:08:23Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by John Mace \* > I had this discussion w/ Randy Spears quite awhile back and we agreed on a compromise position of 4 months. Roughly the amount of time that the UN inspectors were looking before Bush started the war. Seems okay to me, though shouldn’t that be adjusted for the number of inspectors the U.S. currently have in Iraq vs. the number of inspectors Hans Blix had before the war? I mean, giving Blix’s smaller team 4 months and the Bush Administration’s larger team 4 months seems a tad unbalanced… ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/13 "2003-05-09T19:48:41Z")
Did Blix have fewer than 200 people? Since it was the UN, maybe there were 10 support people for every 2 people actually doing any work. Of course, the US military may need time to get their $600 wrenches over to Iraq, too. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/14 "2003-05-09T19:51:54Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Age Quod Agis \* > \*\*Why do you assume that? If I was a looter, I think I’d be picking up tv’s and food instead of canisters of anthrax or weaponized uranium, even assuming that I knew where the Iraqi army kept their WMD. \*\* Yeah, maybe so; however, if you were an agent of a terrorist org who could fence the stuff, you’d rather grab the mutli-million dollar items rather than the multi-thousand dollar items. ---
**Author:** ![CyberPundit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/76d3ee/32.png) [@CyberPundit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyberPundit)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/15 "2003-05-09T20:22:38Z")
“if you were an agent of a terrorist org who could fence the stuff, you’d rather grab the mutli-million dollar items rather than the multi-thousand dollar items” Exactly the WMD ,if they exist, will be worth huge amounts of money if sold to terrorists or other parties. That means someone is likely to be trying to grab hold. Also the remnants of the Baath regime will presumably be keen to get revenge on the US. Giving WMD to anti-American terrorists is one way of doing this. And some regime members surely know where the weapons are kept. It’s hard to see what would have stopped them from carrying the weapons by now. “How about weighing in on the debate of this thread? How long are you willing to give the US troops to find the weapons before you say “there aren’t any”?” I don’t know. It’s a secondary question. The important issue isn’t to obtain evidence of the existence of WMD; it is to control all the WMD stockpiles as quickly as possible. Suppose the US obtains definite evidence of the existence of Iraqi WMD today. What use is it if there are large numbers of stockpiles which could be taken and handed over to terrorists? “While there may be an increased risk of WMDs “disappearing”, the production and development of those weapons has ceased, as has the chance of Saddam donating any weapons to terrorist causes” Except that there is very little evidence that production of new WMD was going on or that Saddam was likely to hand them over to terrorists before the war. He had good incentive to not do this; for instance fear of American retaliation if caught. OTOH there was absolutely nothing to stop the Baath regime from handing over weapons to terrorists after it was clear the war was lost or for the remnants of the regime to do so now. How do you know that the fleeing members of the regime didn’t have WMD with them to sell or give to terrorists? By any rational analysis the war has increased the chances of Iraqi WMD landing in the hands of terrorists. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/16 "2003-05-09T20:35:20Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by CyberPundit \* > \*\* > By any rational analysis the war has increased the chances of Iraqi WMD landing in the hands of terrorists. \*\* Oddly enough, this was the CIA assesment of the venture. ---
**Author:** ![CyberPundit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/76d3ee/32.png) [@CyberPundit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyberPundit)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/17 "2003-05-09T20:43:49Z")
[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10888-2003May3.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10888-2003May3.html) BTW here is the article about the looted nuclear site. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/18 "2003-05-09T22:56:01Z")
[U.S. Weapons Hunters Lower Expectations](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=535&ncid=535&e=5&u=/ap/20030509/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_weapons_hunt) > [@](#): > > The commander of the American weapons hunters in Iraq (news - web sites) says he’s certain the U.S. invasion has ended a program capable of producing Iraqi chemical and biological weapons. But Col. Richard R. McPhee says his teams have found no such weapons thus far. And members of McPhee’s team and U.S. defense officials say that banned arms may never be found in Iraq. This marks a shift in expectations to confirming an Iraqi capability to produce weapons of mass destruction, rather than actually finding them. Last month we were “certain” the weapons themselves existed. Is there anything left to the pro-invasion folk’s argument that this was _not_ simply a war of conquest ? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/19 "2003-05-09T23:06:59Z")
Squink: Can I interpret your post as saying that we’ve already passed your deadline? ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2003, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133/20 "2003-05-09T23:31:49Z")
Well, the threat _was_ supposed to be so severe that Saddam could kill American children in less than an hour. The mere existence of Ph.D. scientists and engineers in Iraq doesn’t rise to that level of terror. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-should-it-take-to-find-the-wmds-in-iraq/174133.md?page=2)