# How Long Until Gay Marriage Is Legal Everywhere? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 19, 2012, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729 "2012-07-19T15:50:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Alice\_The\_Goon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Alice\_The\_Goon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alice_The_Goon)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/1 "2012-07-19T15:50:31Z")
So I bet someone 10 bucks that SSM will be legal everywhere within 5 years. Too optimistic? And do civil unions count as marriages? ---
**Author:** ![Lamia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Lamia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamia)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/2 "2012-07-19T15:54:34Z")
Do you mean everywhere in the US, or everywhere in the world? If Obama is re-elected I think it’s possible we’ll see gay marriage recognized throughout the US, but I think it’s extraordinarily unlikely that it will be recognized by 2017 in, say, Mauritania, where it’s not currently even legal to have gay sex. ---
**Author:** ![Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a587f6/32.png) [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freddy_the_Pig)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/3 "2012-07-19T15:55:38Z")
_Everywhere_? Even in the Islamic world? Wow, I want to make some bets with you. ---
**Author:** ![Anamorphic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/anamorphic/32/3057_2.png) [@Anamorphic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anamorphic)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/4 "2012-07-19T15:55:43Z")
“Everywhere” within the U.S., or “everywhere” around the world? If just the U.S., I’d say within 25 years. The whole world? Not for a very, very, very long time, if ever. ---
**Author:** ![Alice\_The\_Goon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Alice\_The\_Goon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alice_The_Goon)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/5 "2012-07-19T15:56:01Z")
What- there’s other places in the world besides the US? 😕 Sorry, yes- I mean in the US. ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/6 "2012-07-19T15:57:10Z")
It will take a few decades for it to be legalized in every state in the US. It will be more common, but it’s unlikely that Bible Belt states would even consider it. Worldwide, it might take centuries. ---
**Author:** ![divemaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/divemaster/32/78_2.png) [@divemaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/divemaster)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/7 "2012-07-19T16:15:30Z")
Maryland leans heavily blue and the state legislature legalized gay marriage there recently. There was enough backlash that a citizen’s petition has succeeded in getting the issue put on the November ballot as a referendum. I think it’s a coin flip whether or not it will be repealed. If \*Maryland \*shows this much resistance, I don’t think you are going to see much movement toward gay marriage as long as people have the vote. If the Supreme Court gets involved a la Roe v. Wade, then who knows? But my guess is that you just lost $10. ---
**Author:** ![Acid\_Lamp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Acid\_Lamp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acid_Lamp)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/8 "2012-07-19T16:26:17Z")
10 years or so. Like a lot of other social issues, there is a generational problem in the way. Once the worst of the oldsters die off or retire permanently from service, we’ll see movement on this issue. ---
**Author:** ![Covered\_In\_Bees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7ab992/32.png) [@Covered\_In\_Bees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Covered_In_Bees)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/9 "2012-07-19T17:21:30Z")
I think five years is pretty optimistic, but not unrealistic. My money is on 10, give or take two, for a range of 8-12 for those bad at math. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/10 "2012-07-19T17:38:00Z")
> [@Acid\_Lamp](#): > > 10 years or so. Like a lot of other social issues, there is a generational problem in the way. Once the worst of the oldsters die off or retire permanently from service, we’ll see movement on this issue. Yep. I’m thinking when Generation Y comes into political power. About 20 years. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/11 "2012-07-19T17:40:30Z")
How do you mean “legal”? I could see there being a period where states are forced to grudgingly accept accept out-of-state same-sex marriages but not actually perform them. ---
**Author:** ![markdash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@markdash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/markdash)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/12 "2012-07-19T17:47:54Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > Yep. I’m thinking when Generation Y comes into political power. About 20 years. I agree with this, there are some pretty conservative states that will be hesitant to legalize SSM even if they’re in the small minority. I’m looking at you, Utah. ---
**Author:** ![Alice\_The\_Goon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Alice\_The\_Goon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alice_The_Goon)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/13 "2012-07-19T18:20:01Z")
> [@divemaster](#): > > Maryland leans heavily blue and the state legislature legalized gay marriage there recently. There was enough backlash that a citizen’s petition has succeeded in getting the issue put on the November ballot as a referendum. I think it’s a coin flip whether or not it will be repealed. > > If \*Maryland \*shows this much resistance, I don’t think you are going to see much movement toward gay marriage as long as people have the vote. If the Supreme Court gets involved a la Roe v. Wade, then who knows? > > But my guess is that you just lost $10. I’m no expert, by far, but I was thinking that it will be resolved through the courts, rather than the vote. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/14 "2012-07-19T18:34:15Z")
5 years seems optimistic, but looking back it was only around 1999-2000 that the Vermont Civil Union situation created the first same-sex union in the country. Massachusetts same-sex marriage happened in May 2004. Things are moving faster than I expected they would. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/15 "2012-07-19T18:38:53Z")
I think it will either be in a couple years if the supreme court rules on the prop 8 thing from California in the most liberal/universally applying way (very, VERY doubtful), or it will be decades. They might repeal DOMA though within 5 or 10 years, and who knows what that would do. ---
**Author:** ![shiftless](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9c0ed/32.png) [@shiftless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shiftless)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/16 "2012-07-19T18:43:01Z")
I’d guess 5 years until half the states have it, then some backlash for a while. 30 years from now about 48 states will have SSM with maybe two holdouts (yes, I’m looking at you Alabama.) In the mean time there will be all kinds of legal wrangling about what it means for two same sex people to be married. We will be finding old laws that explicitly reference husband and wife for example and it will need to be fought out in court what that now means. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/17 "2012-07-19T20:23:34Z")
> [@Alice\_The\_Goon](#): > > I’m no expert, by far, but I was thinking that it will be resolved through the courts, rather than the vote. Sad, but, yeah, that’s the greater likelihood. Loving v. Virginia: the legislature(s) didn’t even have the guts to permit blacks and whites to marry, and the courts had to do the right thing. Q: What is “Absolute Truth?” A: A five-to-four decision of the Supreme Court. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/18 "2012-07-19T20:27:49Z")
> [@shiftless](#): > > 30 years from now about 48 states will have SSM with maybe two holdouts… No way. Either the Supreme Court of the United States will have ruled in its favor, or it will have ruled against, and there will be more than two holdouts. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/19 "2012-07-19T20:28:56Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > I think it will either be in a couple years if the supreme court rules on the prop 8 thing from California in the most liberal/universally applying way (very, VERY doubtful), or it will be decades. I think that’s about right. And if the SCOTUS rules in favor of SSM, I think that will guarantee a Republican landslide in Congress and the Presidency. It would be almost as bad for the Democrats as overturning _Roe_ would be for the Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2012, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/20 "2012-07-19T20:56:08Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > And if the SCOTUS rules in favor of SSM… Well, if it does that, the resistant states will likely all write civil marriage out of their statutes entirely. It’s possible, but I think unlikely, for the SCt to rule on the Prop 8 case in a way that requires SSM nationwide. The trial court’s reasoning striking down Prop 8, if adopted by the SCt, would apply nationwide, while the appellate court attempted to find a way to limit its ruling to California. This attempt was somewhat unconvincing in my view, and in my opinion, the Ninth Circuit has effectively mandated SSM throughout its jurisdiction. I may be alone in this view, however, at least until we see if litigants in Idaho and Montana try to use it that way. I think it’s most likely that the SCt will simply decline to review the Prop 8 decision. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729.md?page=2)