# How Long Until Gay Marriage Is Legal Everywhere? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 19, 2012, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729 "2012-07-19T15:50:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2012, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/41 "2012-07-22T00:38:52Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Is that the question being put before the SCOTUS? Yes, and they will likely rule VERY narrowly with my WAG being that Kennedy writes a 5-4 opinion holding that since a right was taken away, Prop 8 is invalid, but only in California. Leave for another day the question of a nationwide right of gay marriage, and then that “other day” will be after all of the current justices are no longer on the Court. Scalia will write a raving dissent joined by Thomas and Alito, and Roberts will write a separate dissent in less harsh terms trying to be Mr. Cool Chief Justice while repairing his conservative credentials. As I predicted earlier, SCOTUS does not want another Roe v. Wade type decision that will galvanize the country for years to come. Wait 30 years until it’s not an issue anymore and then rule. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2012, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/42 "2012-07-22T00:42:06Z")
> [@lawbuff](#): > > Q for you, since you are in law school. Ever come across language that an AMENDMENT is also a STATUTE, for public policy purposes. I have seen it somewhere? I have not, but I’m out in the boondocks this week and on a dialup connection. Research is difficult. 🙂 I can’t imagine an argument that would distinguish a state constitutional amendment as being LESS of a public policy position than a simple statute. How would that be framed? I would also think that those two cases will have zero effect on the minds of any judge or justice ruling on SSM today except as a cite for a reason to uphold bans on it. IOW, I can’t see Breyer thinking “Gee I think that SSM is a constitutional right, but I must follow this 1934 decision. Shucks.” ---
**Author:** ![Cinnamon\_Imp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/58956e/32.png) [@Cinnamon\_Imp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cinnamon_Imp)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2012, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/43 "2012-07-25T18:36:03Z")
> [@Alice\_The\_Goon](#): > > What- there’s other places in the world besides the US? 😕 > Sorry, yes- I mean in the US. Huh. Well, I’m coming in from outwith the US to brag that as well as civil unions, gay marriages are now [legal in Scotland](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-18981287) (but not the rest of the UK, just to add confusion to the whole UK countries discussions!) Progress, slowly but surely. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Greg\_Charles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/839c29/32.png) [@Greg\_Charles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Greg_Charles)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/44 "2014-07-18T01:33:37Z")
It’s just about two years into the five of Alice’s bet, and it’s looking much more likely she’ll be winning that $10. It’s really amazing to think how much has changed in that time: 19 states plus D.C. have legal SSM, and (I believe) every single state with a ban on SSM has an active legal challenge against that ban. Utah has appealed to the Supreme Court after its ban was declared unconstitutional by the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals, and other federal district court decisions against bans are pending appeal in five of the seven other circuits where SSM is banned in at least one of the states. The 6th and 7th Circuit Courts will hear those appeals next month. It seems likely the Supreme Court will be compelled to rule on the issue in their next session, and certainly within the next three years. Good luck Alice, we’re rooting for you! ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/45 "2014-07-18T14:30:32Z")
It is interesting to read this thread two years later. First comment is that things are moving faster then anticipated. Of course we now know that SCOTUS essentially ducked Prop 8 and outlawed DOMA. Nate Silver guessed it would take till the early 2020s for states like AL and MS to act. But now that the circuit that includes Utah has ruled in favor of gay marriage, I don’t think SCOTUS will be able to duck it much longer. Still, I would expect the current court to uphold state bans. If not, I think Alice will lost. Much better if she had said 10 years. But it is remarkable how quickly public opinion has shifted on this. Incidentally, marriage is not primarily a religious matter; it is all about property. In the middle ages, in England at least, peasants did not formally marry since there was no property involved. I imagine that is where common law marriage came from. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/46 "2014-07-18T14:50:52Z")
Right, this is interesting stuff. I’d be surprised if the court didn’t take up this issue in the fall because the lower courts are essentially screaming for it. If so, they’d announce their decision by June and Kennedy’s _Windsor_ decision suggests there could be five voters willing to kill these bans. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/47 "2014-07-18T15:00:11Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Right, this is interesting stuff. I’d be surprised if the court didn’t take up this issue in the fall because the lower courts are essentially screaming for it. If so, they’d announce their decision by June and Kennedy’s _Windsor_ decision suggests there could be five voters willing to kill these bans. Sure. Although Windsor’s language claimed only its narrow effect, the logic used to get there (as Scalia pointed out in his dissent) essentially requires that state bans be struck down as well – and, indeed, almost every federal court that has confronted the issue post-Windsor has ruled in favor of the concept that banning same-sex marriage is impermissible. In my view, the Supreme Court must either substantially rewrite Windsor, or accept that same-sex marriage bans are untenable. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/48 "2014-07-18T15:13:31Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Sure. Although Windsor’s language claimed only its narrow effect, the logic used to get there (as Scalia pointed out in his dissent) essentially requires that state bans be struck down as well – and, indeed, almost every federal court that has confronted the issue post-Windsor has ruled in favor of the concept that banning same-sex marriage is impermissible. I expect that was intentional. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Annie-Xmas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecc23a/32.png) [@Annie-Xmas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Annie-Xmas)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/49 "2014-07-18T16:15:03Z")
I’d say 5 years to make it to the Supreme Court, which will make it legal in the entire country. As my sweetie puts it: I have to admire gay people: In 50 years they went from being in the closet to at the altar. ---
**Author:** ![Greg\_Charles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/839c29/32.png) [@Greg\_Charles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Greg_Charles)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/50 "2014-07-18T16:44:11Z")
Really, five years? I think the issue has to make it to the Supreme Court long before that. The only way it wouldn’t is if the Supremes refused to hear the appeals coming from the circuits, and that would make SSM marriage legal in the 10th Circuit, and in fairly short order probably the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 9th as well. (It’s already legal in all states of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Circuits, though not in places like Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.) ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/51 "2014-07-18T19:03:16Z")
> [@Greg\_Charles](#): > > Really, five years? I think the issue has to make it to the Supreme Court long before that. The only way it wouldn’t is if the Supremes refused to hear the appeals coming from the circuits, and that would make SSM marriage legal in the 10th Circuit, and in fairly short order probably the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 9th as well. (It’s already legal in all states of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Circuits, though not in places like Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.) Note that this thread was started before US v Windsor and before Kitchen v Herbert, i.e. before the DOMA decision and the Utah decision. ---
**Author:** ![Greg\_Charles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/839c29/32.png) [@Greg\_Charles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Greg_Charles)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/52 "2014-07-18T21:38:37Z")
> [@yellowjacketcoder](#): > > Note that this thread was started before US v Windsor and before Kitchen v Herbert, i.e. before the DOMA decision and the Utah decision. I was actually responding to Annie’s post one up from mine, and posted just a half hour before. I guess I should have quoted it. ---
**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2014, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/53 "2014-07-19T00:59:02Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > Missouri is the only state on that map in bright yellow, that existed in 1860, which was NOT part of the CSA. The rest of the yellow state were part of the CSA, NO non-yellow state was part of the CSA. That map is unsurprising. Kentucky and Delaware are yellow and were not part of the CSA. ---
**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2014, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/54 "2014-07-19T05:13:24Z")
> [@OldGuy](#): > > Kentucky and Delaware are yellow and were not part of the CSA. Kentucky was chicken - it was a slave state, but was unwilling to join the fight to keep them. > **[History of slavery in Kentucky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_slavery_in_Kentucky)** > > The history of slavery in Kentucky dates from the earliest permanent European settlements in the state, until the end of the Civil War. In 1830, enslaved African Americans represented 24 percent of Kentucky's population, a share that declined to 19.5 percent by 1860, on the eve of the Civil War. Most enslaved people were concentrated in the cities of Louisville and Lexington and in the hemp- and tobacco-producing Bluegrass Region and Jackson Purchase. Other enslaved people lived in the Ohio Ri... Delaware, ditto: > **[Slave states and free states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slave_and_free_states)** > > In the United States before 1865, a slave state was a state in which slavery and the internal or domestic slave trade were legal, while a free state was one in which they were prohibited. Between 1812 and 1850, it was considered by the slave states to be politically imperative that the number of free states not exceed the number of slave states, so new states were admitted in slave–free pairs. There were, nonetheless, some slaves in most free states up to the 1840 census, and the Fugitive Slave... ---
**Author:** ![Greg\_Charles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/839c29/32.png) [@Greg\_Charles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Greg_Charles)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2014, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/55 "2014-10-06T22:25:53Z")
A quick bump to note that as of today, the first Monday in October, the SSM state count seems to have risen to 24, with a pretty clear route to 30. When the 9th Circuit rules (and what’s taking them so long?), there could be a route to 35. If that happens, it could still be close for Annie’s bet, but she would still have more than two years to pull in the fifteen holdouts. ---
**Author:** ![Greg\_Charles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/839c29/32.png) [@Greg\_Charles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Greg_Charles)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/56 "2015-06-26T14:59:43Z")
Alice is 10 dollars richer, and it only took three years. Congratulations! (And sorry for calling you Annie last year.) ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/57 "2015-06-26T17:47:45Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > I disagree that interracial marriage progress is really very useful as a predictor. I agree with an earlier estimate of 25 years or so. I think it’ll take 20 years just to get a SCOTUS even willing to consider ruling on gay marriage like the SCOTUS did on _Loving_, and another 5 years before you actually have such a ruling. In that time I suspect around 30 states will have legalized it at a State level. > > The only way gay marriage would be nationally legal within 5 years would be SCOTUS decision, but based on ages of current justices and past positions I just don’t think you’ll have a SCOTUS lined up to rule such a way within 5 years time. > > Plus, interracial marriage really is different. Gay marriage is essentially a totally new thing, historically marriage was an important cultural / social thing that often times **had to happen** for various reasons. Aside from a few eccentric rich people who had the means to basically ignore societal obligations and expectations (people like perhaps Frederick the Great or such), virtually all gay people historically ended up in heterosexual marriages and had families. > > Interracial marriage has a long history in America with some of the earliest American colonists taking native wives. It was a lot more common in the Spanish colonies than the English/British colonies, but we still had a decent amount of it happening here. That is really only to be expected when you have ships coming over with far more males than females, those guys have to find someone to marry–because again, historically the option of not marrying wasn’t something often exercised. > > Outside of White-Native American partnerships, White-Black marriages were also common enough that no one would act like they had never thought of the idea all the way back to the 18th century in America. Sure, it was socially scandalous but especially in frontier settlements people could often marry whoever they wanted and keep the fuck to themselves enough that it wasn’t a huge problem. > > In some ways anti-miscegenation laws were a reactionary sort of thing intended to halt a practice in its tracks, because under most State laws prior to passing miscegenation laws marriage law didn’t really get written to be racially specific, the original lawmakers most of the times just didn’t consider that aspect of it. Anti-miscegenation laws started popping up as the matter began to be viewed as a “problem.” It’s at least somewhat suspected part of the reason for Virginia’s early anti-miscegenation laws was the wealthy class’s response to Bacon’s Rebellion, as many of the rebels were indentured servants or former indentured servants and many of them were practicing interracial marriage between white and black. > > It’s also worth noting even some Southern states later exempted White-Native marriage from anti-miscegenation laws, so there wasn’t truly a philosophical opposition to any mixing of the races, but most specifically between whites and blacks. Interesting to see how much has changed in just 3 years. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/58 "2015-06-26T18:04:18Z")
> [@Shalmanese](#): > > Interesting to see how much has changed in just 3 years. It was fascinating to read the first page of this thread. I’m smiling. ---
**Author:** ![Greg\_Charles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/839c29/32.png) [@Greg\_Charles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Greg_Charles)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/59 "2015-06-26T19:04:18Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > It was fascinating to read the first page of this thread. I’m smiling. +1. Not even the most optimistic of us Dopers predicted it would be a done deal this fast. Think how we would have rolled our eyes at a comment like, “Alice will win the bet easily. The U.S. will completely legalize SSM within three years. Right after Ireland does.” It’s nice when reality exceeds cynicism in this direction. It doesn’t happen often. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2015, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729/60 "2015-06-26T19:54:33Z")
2 posts from July 2012. The first held up reasonably well: > [@Bricker](#): > > Sure. Although Windsor’s language claimed only its narrow effect, the logic used to get there (as Scalia pointed out in his dissent) essentially requires that state bans be struck down as well – and, indeed, almost every federal court that has confronted the issue post-Windsor has ruled in favor of the concept that banning same-sex marriage is impermissible. > > In my view, the Supreme Court must either substantially rewrite Windsor, or accept that same-sex marriage bans are untenable. > [@John\_Mace](#): > > I think that’s about right. And if the SCOTUS rules in favor of SSM, I think that will guarantee a Republican landslide in Congress and the Presidency. It would be almost as bad for the Democrats as overturning _Roe_ would be for the Republicans. As for the second the Economist once said, “If you must forecast, forecast often.” The polling currently favors gay marriage and support among Millennials tops 70%. Indeed Justice Alito in his dissent wrung his hands and gripped his skull about how SSM opponents were the true victims: “In the course of its opinion, the majority compares traditional marriage laws to laws that denied equal treatment for African-Americans and women. The implications of this analogy will be exploited by those who are determined to stamp out every vestige of dissent.” Every single vestige! Wow: that’s some quality hysteria. If a liberal, conservative or moderate made this claim about any subject in US public life on this message board they would be grilled, flipped over, and subjected to further ridicule. Justice Alito has expressed stupidity dumber than our dumbest posters: congratulations counselor! Over at “New posts”, this is the only gay related thread listed AFAICT. When I joined here a poster named Esprix had an “Ask the gay guy” thread. How interesting and novel! In 2004, Democratic Presidential candidate Kerry passed over gay marriage in favor of civil unions. Today, there’s not much of a debate on this subject left on this board. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-gay-marriage-is-legal-everywhere/628729.md?page=4)