# How long until self driving cars become everpresent, or mandatory **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 18, 2015, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330 "2015-05-18T21:43:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/21 "2015-05-19T13:23:49Z")
They are going to simply have to have an override so that a human can take over when need be. I very much doubt that a self driving car is going to be able to negotiate my driveway or road to my house. Especially when we get 15"s (or more) of snow. Like we did this morning. Or when you put a tow strap on it to pull someone out (or visa versa). Unless they just simply refuse to move in conditions like this. ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/22 "2015-05-19T13:24:05Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > Also, in checking out the [Wiki](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car) article on this, I got stuck on this obstacle: _Self-driving cars could potentially be loaded with explosives and used as bombs_. In our age of security hysteria, which seems to be getting worse, I can see that some cities, or parts of cities, could be “no-autonomous-car-zones”. No matter how good the technology is, it may never be able to overcome some of our fears. Sure, but manually driven cars can be loaded with explosives to be used as bombs now. Just requires someone willing to die for it. And, as we’ve seen, there’s certainly people out there willing. ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/23 "2015-05-19T14:28:48Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > They are going to simply have to have an override so that a human can take over when need be. I very much doubt that a self driving car is going to be able to negotiate my driveway or road to my house. This is a manageable problem, it’s an information problem. If the self driving car can see more than you, can sense more than you through the car’s systems, and has pinpoint high speed multidimensional control over every aspect of the car’s operation, it can theoretically drive anywhere you can drive, and places you can’t. > [@](#): > > Or when you put a tow strap on it to pull someone out (or visa versa). The question is, who are you towing? A person who drove their car into a ditch. A person who you want to be given control during lousy weather. I can see work trucks and off-road vehicles keeping driver controls. Not because humans are better drivers, but when you’re off road, at a work site, or a trail, how do you communicate where you want the truck to go? You want to back up to where Joe is standing so you can offload some bags of cement, I’d much rather just back the truck up than try to tell a computer where to go. Commuter car? No way, get rid of thousands of dollars of controls and a bunch of stuff cluttering up the passenger compartment, keep my insurance low since they know I’m not going to be driving, and I’ll gladly accept my computerized chauffeur, thank you. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/24 "2015-05-19T14:42:59Z")
> [@Cheesesteak](#): > > I can see work trucks and off-road vehicles keeping driver controls. Not because humans are better drivers, but when you’re off road, at a work site, or a trail, how do you communicate where you want the truck to go? You want to back up to where Joe is standing so you can offload some bags of cement, I’d much rather just back the truck up than try to tell a computer where to go. Which is basically my driveway and ‘road’. Off road. Add deep snow into the mix, and a human is going to do a better job. Not everyone lives in a sanitized subdivision. As far as tow straps are concerned, it’s not always because someone drove off the road. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/25 "2015-05-19T15:58:38Z")
> [@usedtobe](#): > > Keep in mind that all data to date is severely cherry-picked. > > We’ve driven 1,000,000 Miles! (on roads and tracks with no other vehicles). You mean I880 has no other cars on it? Where the hell are the cars jamming my way to work coming from? I don’t know where this story comes from. > [@](#): > > If the story that Google is mapping every stop sign and speed limit so the car needs little real-time interaction is true, those tests are of limited value. > You still can’t map the kid darting into traffic, or a semi jackknifing or emergency road closure. As already mentioned, it can do this already. And collision avoidance systems like this are probably going to be mandatory on non-self-driving cars long before they dominate the market. > [@](#): > > You can get some great clinical results for your new drug if you get to pick the patients you treat. > You hear a LOT more about “Promising new cancer drug results” than FDA approvals of new “Breakthrough treatments for cancer”. > > I see no reason to expect the folks pushing autonomous cars to behave any better than the pill-pushers… Cancer death rates have gone down almost 15% since 1950. ([Cite](http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2012/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=1&pageSEL=sect_01_table.03.html)) So I think some of the drugs you scorn work. Not that I’ve seen any magic cures discussed. I think it boils down to that the fact that you can’t figure out how to design a self-driving car doesn’t mean that people at Google can’t. ---
**Author:** ![Razncain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/9d8465/32.png) [@Razncain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Razncain)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/26 "2015-05-19T16:09:48Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Cancer death rates have gone down almost 15% since 1950. ([Cite](http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2012/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=1&pageSEL=sect_01_table.03.html)) So I think some of the drugs you scorn work. Not that I’ve seen any magic cures discussed. Think that might be better attributed to personal health style choices such as more people giving up smoking, and working on diet, exercise, things like that? IIRC, according to the NAS (National Academy of Sciences) 90-95% of all cancers are preventable. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/27 "2015-05-19T16:32:34Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > Well, I DO give a shit about it being fun to drive. Am I going to be left out in the lurch? I dunno. Do you own enough land to set up your own private speedway? ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/28 "2015-05-19T16:48:30Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > I dunno. Do you own enough land to set up your own private speedway? Good point. You know what else is fun? Riding horses, but if I do it down I-95 somebody’s writing me a ticket. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/29 "2015-05-19T18:29:00Z")
> [@](#): > > Keep in mind that all data to date is severely cherry-picked. > [@](#): > > You mean I880 has no other cars on it? Despite the fact that highway 880 is full of other cars, and the Google car has not yet caused an accident, I’ll bet that the engineers at Google are still cherry-picking the data. Notice that they proudly declare that their car has never been in an accident…but they do _not_ claim that their car has never made a mistake. They have never said “our car always reached its destination with no problems.”(say, stopping in the middle of the road because it is confused.) For the public to fully adopt robo-cars, even one incident that leaves you stranded and helpless will be too many. Every software program in the world markets itself as the perfect solution—but when the beta version gets into the hands of the experts, thousands of problems are always found, And when the final version gets sold to the general public, there is still a huge need to send updates/fixes/service packs, virus-blockers, etc etc. There’s a definite market for robo-cars, but there will be _lot_ of problems along the way, some of which will result in people dying. It will take 50 years or more before robo-cars will be the majority on the road.And even then, they will still require a licensed driver at the wheel to be legally responsible, and able to take over if necessary.(for example: construction blocks your lane, and a worker tells you to drive in the opposite lane) It will take 100 years before we have “pods” with no steering wheel that can pick up your 10 year old kid after school and bring him home safely, with 100% dependability… ---
**Author:** ![cladking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4af34b/32.png) [@cladking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cladking)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/30 "2015-05-19T20:23:36Z")
Self driving cars are perfect for people who like to text and talk on the phones while theoretically driving a car. They are great if you’d rather read or eat the garbage you just got at McDounall’s drive through. It’s OK to have sticky fingers or no glasses or even have a high BAC if you’re newly arrived at the morgue because the technology failed. The best part of self driving cars is that now accident victims will be the result of random malfunctions rather than terrible drivers. We wouldn’t want the human race to become more competent through natural selection at this late point in time. It’s just plane rude to ask drivers to pay attention so it’s high time they quit needing to. …widespread in ten years mandatory in fifteen. ---
**Author:** ![cladking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4af34b/32.png) [@cladking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cladking)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/31 "2015-05-19T20:25:47Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > Despite the fact that highway 880 is full of other cars, and the Google car has not yet caused an accident, I’ll bet that the engineers at Google are still cherry-picking the data. > > Notice that they proudly declare that their car has never been in an accident…but they do _not_ claim that their car has never made a mistake. They have never said “our car always reached its destination with no problems.”(say, stopping in the middle of the road because it is confused.) > For the public to fully adopt robo-cars, even one incident that leaves you stranded and helpless will be too many. > Every software program in the world markets itself as the perfect solution—but when the beta version gets into the hands of the experts, thousands of problems are always found, And when the final version gets sold to the general public, there is still a huge need to send updates/fixes/service packs, virus-blockers, etc etc. > There’s a definite market for robo-cars, but there will be _lot_ of problems along the way, some of which will result in people dying. > It will take 50 years or more before robo-cars will be the majority on the road.And even then, they will still require a licensed driver at the wheel to be legally responsible, and able to take over if necessary.(for example: construction blocks your lane, and a worker tells you to drive in the opposite lane) > It will take 100 years before we have “pods” with no steering wheel that can pick up your 10 year old kid after school and bring him home safely, with 100% dependability… I’m figuring they’ll just bury a wire in the road that cars follow like a modern warehouse. It will take 50 years before robots are capable of driving. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/32 "2015-05-19T20:35:54Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > 1. Taxis, trains, buses and airplanes will not be thrilled. Why would these industries care about self-driving cars? How is a self driving car in any sort of competition with buses, let alone trains and planes? And taxi companies, I’d think, would be thrilled, because they could fire all their drivers and replace them with automated cabs. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/33 "2015-05-19T21:16:18Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > Why would these industries care about self-driving cars? How is a self driving car in any sort of competition with buses, let alone trains and planes? And taxi companies, I’d think, would be thrilled, because they could fire all their drivers and replace them with automated cabs. I wonder if you could lease your self driving car to some Uber-equivalent which would ferry around people back from bars at 3 am while you are sleeping. It may be a recipe for theft, but not moreso than self-driving taxis in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/34 "2015-05-19T21:21:07Z")
I hope we have self-driving cars like the ones shown in Woody Allen’s movie “Sleeper”. They made such a neat sound! ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/35 "2015-05-19T21:31:52Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **enipla** : > > They are going to simply have to have an override so that a human can take over when need be. I very much doubt that a self driving car is going to be able to negotiate my driveway or road to my house. Why would you want your car to have a “make this vehicle less safe” button? That’s like the [“wings fall off”](https://www.google.com/search?q=far+side+wings+fall+off&biw=1276&bih=809&tbm=isch&imgil=jBA9hhLseIra8M%253A%253BRFfym_yD7nKlPM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fquoderat.megginson.com%25252F&source=iu&pf=m&fir=jBA9hhLseIra8M%253A%252CRFfym_yD7nKlPM%252C_&usg=__t5dNaoW46g4wTRxbLx_fhduC_YE%3D&dpr=0.8&ved=0CCsQyjc&ei=IKtbVf76EtLYggSB64H4DQ#imgrc=jBA9hhLseIra8M%253A%3BRFfym_yD7nKlPM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.defordmusic.com%252Fwp-content%252Fuploads%252Fwhat-site-changes-do.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fquoderat.megginson.com%252F%3B373%3B500) switch. And are you seriously saying that your driveway is navigable by bad drivers, but not by good drivers? How is that even possible? Really, we already have standards for how good a driver needs to be before we allow them on the roads. Can a Google car pass a standard DMV driving test? If so, then we should just let them drive. If they can pass the test and we decide that they’re still not good enough, then that means we need to make the test harder (which also means a lot of humans would no longer pass). ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/36 "2015-05-19T22:02:14Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > And the poor will likely never be able to afford an autonomous car, even second-hand, as long as regular cars are still around. Perhaps they will be as common as hybrids and electric cars today within the next 30 years, but again, only in urbanized areas. As has been noted, once self-driving cars become mainstream (to offset the production costs) they will likely be _cheaper_ to own and operate because the insurance, among other things, is much cheaper, especially if they have teenagers. Poor families might be able to get by with a single self-driving car (instead of two jalopies) because it’s easier to share. Or they can potentially rent them out Uber style. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/37 "2015-05-19T23:18:05Z")
> [@razncain](#): > > Think that might be better attributed to personal health style choices such as more people giving up smoking, and working on diet, exercise, things like that? IIRC, according to the NAS (National Academy of Sciences) 90-95% of all cancers are preventable. Reduction in smoking has helped a lot. On the other hand, with longer life expectancies there is more time to get cancer (as opposed to dying of something else) so the reduction is more significant than it might first appear. No magic pills, but a good job has been done on certain cancers, but not all. ---
**Author:** ![Renee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/renee/32/287_2.png) [@Renee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Renee)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/38 "2015-05-19T23:34:56Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > Which is basically my driveway and ‘road’. Off road. Add deep snow into the mix, and a human is going to do a better job. Not everyone lives in a sanitized subdivision. > [@Cheesesteak](#): > > I can see work trucks and off-road vehicles keeping driver controls. Not because humans are better drivers, but when you’re off road, at a work site, or a trail, how do you communicate where you want the truck to go? You want to back up to where Joe is standing so you can offload some bags of cement, I’d much rather just back the truck up than try to tell a computer where to go. I could see both of these problems being solved by a sort of navigation stick that you’d keep in the car. Remove it from the car or truck, type in a code to authorize the stick nav, and the vehicle follows the stick (I can see TONS of applications for this for farm work). It could also learn new routes this way, like a tricky driveway. ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/39 "2015-05-19T23:36:38Z")
> [@razncain](#): > > Think that might be better attributed to personal health style choices such as more people giving up smoking, and working on diet, exercise, things like that? IIRC, according to the NAS (National Academy of Sciences) 90-95% of all cancers are preventable. _Childhood_ cancer survival rates improved dramatically from [1950 to present](http://www.cancerprogress.net/timeline/pediatric-cancer) (it says survival rates went from from \<10% to ~80%), and I doubt that’s attributable to exercise and diet (I’ll grant smoking cessation and environmental cleanup as valid reasons in general, but given the changes in the obesity rate, healthy eating and exercise and reasons for increasing survival is a very hard sell to me). Indeed, the previously linked page 80% difference in the \<4s and \>30% for every age range under 55. ---
**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/40 "2015-05-19T23:53:28Z")
When Google, Apple, Tesla, and everybody else who imagines a driverless car is willing to give them to independent analysts (_ **Car and Driver** _, etc.) with no more instruction than a user manual equivalent to those now found in glove compartments, we will get real results. The vehicle ahead throws mud on your sensor, the idiot plowing the snow in his driveway presents a wall of snow. Or even a door opening on a parked car. Until there is the equivalent of a “Pull handle to deploy Parachute” (as found in some light planes) for these vehicles, there had damned well better be a “Plan B” that does NOT involve STOP. That solution is not compatible with the dream of high-speed, close-spaced carefree travel. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330.md?page=3)