# How long until self driving cars become everpresent, or mandatory **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 18, 2015, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330 "2015-05-18T21:43:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2015, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/121 "2015-05-24T05:02:32Z")
> [@Balthisar](#): > > Something else that I predict (and terrifies me as I’m in the car industry) is that we will approach 100% resource utilization. Maybe not get there 100% (some people will still insist on ownership), but get close. Why own a car if you only use it for 9% of its availability? It’s much better to use a car-hire service. You’ll never have to worry about an inappropriate vehicle for a task because you can hire what’s needed. Granted fleet owners have to worry about 100% utilization, and so this might not really be achievable without societal changes for working hours, i.e., instead of everyone commuting at 9 and 5, we’d have to better stagger ourselves to support the resource utilization (many of us do this now, e.g., going to work early to avoid traffic). It’s not all doom and gloom. The full up, sticker price of an automated car with solid engineering, all the testing and sensors, etc will probably be a decent chunk of change higher. I’ve seen estimates of 10 grand. So if the average car sold is 50% more expensive, but less cars are sold due to overlap like you say, it might be a wash for the industry. You’re also creating value. Right now, a car is worth a certain amount to people. I buy a car, I, in exchange for a certain amount of irreplacable hours concentrating, can go to a destination. It also costs me a certain amount of depreciation and fuel. If I am sharing the car with others, that depreciation is less to me personally. If the car is robotic, I can be sleeping in the back instead. If it drives carefully like a robot, it probably costs less fuel. Point is, once taking a trip somewhere is a matter of mashing the buttons on your cell phone to summon an automated car, climbing in, mashing the buttons for where you want to go (obviously the app would remember where you’ve been before so you don’t even need to remember the whole address), and going to sleep in the back…people might take a lot more trips. What if you had a girlfriend in another city or a part time job there? If you can commute back and forth while asleep, and this was a reasonably safe thing to do, people might start doing this routinely. So, due to more total miles being driven, it could actually result in more total demand for cars. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2015, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/122 "2015-05-24T14:18:47Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > This all depends on how you want to use the car. For example most families are multi-car households. With an autonomous car, it could first take the husband to work, come back home and take the wife to work–and likewise in the evening. So the family only needs one car. Or you could have a fleet of autonomous Uber cars. Eh. But it’s making empty trips back and forth. I know the answer will be “but it could ferry someone else on the way back!” I wouldn’t want that any more than some anonymous stranger in my guest room. For us living in rural areas that just isn’t going to work. For many of us, our car is an extension of our home. When you live in the sticks, that’s really what it is. We don’t and can’t take public transportation, and frankly, don’t care to. If you could offer me an autonomous car for the same price that I pay for transportation now, that will instantly appear when ever I need it I MIGHT be interested in it if it could do the things I need. It would of course need to have room for dogs and whatever gear I need for wherever and whenever I need to go. Oh, I’ll also have to ask it to haul our trash to the transfer station. This is not asking too much as I already have that service now. It’s sitting in my driveway. I can’t imagine that self driving cars will ever become mandatory. It may work for some, but there are just too many variables that would make it fail to work for many. Mandatory (from the title of the thread) is the key word here. They might be able to work in very specific limited conditions, for the rest? um no. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2015, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/123 "2015-05-24T17:48:49Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > Eh. But it’s making empty trips back and forth. I know the answer will be “but it could ferry someone else on the way back!” I wouldn’t want that any more than some anonymous stranger in my guest room. For us living in rural areas that just isn’t going to work. > > For many of us, our car is an extension of our home. When you live in the sticks, that’s really what it is. We don’t and can’t take public transportation, and frankly, don’t care to. > > If you could offer me an autonomous car for the same price that I pay for transportation now, that will instantly appear when ever I need it I MIGHT be interested in it if it could do the things I need. It would of course need to have room for dogs and whatever gear I need for wherever and whenever I need to go. Oh, I’ll also have to ask it to haul our trash to the transfer station. > > This is not asking too much as I already have that service now. It’s sitting in my driveway. > > I can’t imagine that self driving cars will ever become mandatory. It may work for some, but there are just too many variables that would make it fail to work for many. > Mandatory (from the title of the thread) is the key word here. They might be able to work in very specific limited conditions, for the rest? um no. One thought I have had about that is that there will arrive a class of driverless cars that consist entirely of an engine, transmission and chassis. The passenger compartment will be a pod which will be owned by individuals/families. You keep the pod wherever you are: home, work, etc. and the car itself comes to wherever you summon it, hooks up automatically to the pod, and then drives you wherever. Gives you that personal space you desire, without your having to pay for the mechanical/fuel end of the car, saving lots of money. And since the car’s driverless, fuel costs are saved, since the routes won’t be simple back-and-forths as most commuting is. And of course, further savings as you can have individual pods. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2015, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/124 "2015-05-24T20:25:38Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > One thought I have had about that is that there will arrive a class of driverless cars that consist entirely of an engine, transmission and chassis. The passenger compartment will be a pod which will be owned by individuals/families. You keep the pod wherever you are: home, work, etc. and the car itself comes to wherever you summon it, hooks up automatically to the pod, and then drives you wherever. Gives you that personal space you desire, without your having to pay for the mechanical/fuel end of the car, saving lots of money. And since the car’s driverless, fuel costs are saved, since the routes won’t be simple back-and-forths as most commuting is. And of course, further savings as you can have individual pods. An interesting idea, but it won’t work in many places. I could elaborate, but hope I don’t have to. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2015, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/125 "2015-05-24T22:34:10Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > I can’t imagine that self driving cars will ever become mandatory. It may work for some, but there are just too many variables that would make it fail to work for many. > Mandatory (from the title of the thread) is the key word here. They might be able to work in very specific limited conditions, for the rest? um no. Mandatory, probably never. Ever-present - also in the title of the thread, yes. After all, while age restrictions on driving are mandatory, kids younger than of licensed age drive on farms all the time. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2015, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/126 "2015-05-25T03:29:08Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > I’m fine with automated cars crusing down the highway. I argue that it MUST allow the human to take complete control whenever a human wants to. Some folks seem to think that a computer is ALWAYS going to handle anything better than a human. > > And here is an obvious, flag waving, red light disconnect. A 12" snow drift? Bwahaahahahh. Not neccessarily - I’ve been driving for more than 25 years - in that time I’ve driven in snow all of about 5 or 6 times. I’ve never needed to go anywhere, at anytime, where snow stopped me. Sure - in some places at some times, snow will be a major problem. However that doesn’t mean that just because those people can’t use an autonomous car during the winter months, such a car wouldn’t be a huge benefit in the summer and these never going to be a market for it in places that very rarely get snow. You may as well say there’s never a market for jogging singlets because a Maine winter is too cold for them. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2015, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/127 "2015-05-25T04:27:28Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > I can’t imagine that self driving cars will ever become mandatory. It may work for some, but there are just too many variables that would make it fail to work for many. > Mandatory (from the title of the thread) is the key word here. They might be able to work in very specific limited conditions, for the rest? um no. I can believe that self-driving cars will be mandatory in some urban areas (like Manhattan) for better traffic control. I can also imagine a legal premise: if one gets into a car accident while under human control then the penalties are much higher; it would be tantamount to reckless driving (this assumes that autopilot is much safer). ---
**Author:** ![Habeed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a587f6/32.png) [@Habeed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Habeed)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2015, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/128 "2015-05-26T21:39:17Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > You keep the pod wherever you are: home, work, etc. and the car itself comes to wherever you summon it, hooks up automatically to the pod, and then drives you wherever. Gives you that personal space you desire, without your having to pay for the mechanical/fuel end of the car, saving lots of money. A simpler and cheaper method would be that there would be a variety of companies providing driverless car fleets that are out roving for passengers. Some companies would promise to clean the passenger compartment after every passenger. There would be online reviews you could check to see what other users have to say. There could be special-purpose cabins that could show up. Want to impress someone? Mash a few buttons on your phone and agree to pay more, and a car with a limo style passenger compartment and a minibar shows up. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/129 "2015-05-27T03:20:49Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > I can believe that self-driving cars will be mandatory in some urban areas (like Manhattan) for better traffic control. I can also imagine a legal premise: if one gets into a car accident while under human control then the penalties are much higher; it would be tantamount to reckless driving (this assumes that autopilot is much safer). I suspect that if self-driving cars are much safer than human driven cars, if a human driver is found at fault the driver’s license will be forfeit, for life, period, since you can’t argue necessity in a world of self-driving cars. The penalty for being at fault in an accident where people are injured would probably include jail time even for minor injuries, and very long sentences for major injuries. Much safer to let the car do the driving. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/130 "2015-05-27T03:21:55Z")
> [@Habeed](#): > > A simpler and cheaper method would be that there would be a variety of companies providing driverless car fleets that are out roving for passengers. > > Some companies would promise to clean the passenger compartment after every passenger. There would be online reviews you could check to see what other users have to say. > > There could be special-purpose cabins that could show up. Want to impress someone? Mash a few buttons on your phone and agree to pay more, and a car with a limo style passenger compartment and a minibar shows up. I’ve been in very few cabs that didn’t stink, literally. So, not buying it. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/131 "2015-05-27T03:28:44Z")
> [@Habeed](#): > > A simpler and cheaper method would be that there would be a variety of companies providing driverless car fleets that are out roving for passengers. > > Some companies would promise to clean the passenger compartment after every passenger. There would be online reviews you could check to see what other users have to say. > > There could be special-purpose cabins that could show up. Want to impress someone? Mash a few buttons on your phone and agree to pay more, and a car with a limo style passenger compartment and a minibar shows up. I’ve been in very few cabs that didn’t stink, literally. So, not buying it. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/132 "2015-05-27T03:29:38Z")
Here we have Volvo’s self-parking car. Be amazed at the technology: watch the video: [![]( " - YouTube") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8nnhUCtcO8) Some comments: > **[Self-Driving Volvo Tries To Run Some People Over](https://jalopnik.com/self-driving-volvo-tries-to-run-some-people-over-1706970068)** > > An unofficial demonstration of a Volvo XC60’s semi-automated driving functionality in the Dominican Republic ended with the Volvo slamming into a strangely stationary man, who folded forward like a book slamming shut. Volvo essentially blames the... ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/133 "2015-05-27T03:30:47Z")
So, here is my question in all this: When will self-driving trains become ubiquitous? There are a lot of automated trains in the world now, but they are not the rule just yet. It would seem trains would be perfect for this technology - so why are automated trains not yet universal? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/134 "2015-05-27T03:42:43Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > So, here is my question in all this: When will self-driving trains become ubiquitous? There are a lot of automated trains in the world now, but they are not the rule just yet. It would seem trains would be perfect for this technology - so why are automated trains not yet universal? Good point. I remember reading after the most recent horrific Amtrak accident that it would not have occurred if technology that was supposed to be installed to prevent the train from speeding had been installed. There was some snafu involving bureaucracy, I believe. Driverless cars will undoubtedly face similar hurdles. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2015, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/135 "2015-05-29T18:13:18Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > To the OP, I’ve often quipped that I’m not 100% sure my children (now 3 and 8 mos) will ever learn to drive a car. That’s probably optimistic, but I’m reasonably confident that THEIR children never will. When the apocalypse happens, your grandchildren will have no chance at becoming _Warboys_. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [June 11, 2015, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330/136 "2015-06-11T17:49:52Z")
Aaaand … it begins. [Goodbye, transportation industry jobs.](http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/06/driverless-truck-to-hit-albertas.html?m=1) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-until-self-driving-cars-become-everpresent-or-mandatory/720330.md?page=6)