Bull.
Those that think that complete autonomous driving should just get on a bus. As another poster said, I may want to park in the middle of the garage. Or as I have said, I need to blow through the snow drift. I may or may not do it. It would be my choice. My driveway? Now that’s comical. A totally computer controlled car is going to say ‘no way’. I want the option of way. Need it. I can get my truck and winch it up if I don’t make it.
I think these are both good points. I could see the generation born in the past ten years, who have never known crappy computers, to be much more willing to accept that computers can be better at things than people.
I agree the tech problems will be solved.
Also remember though - how dangerous it is to “just blow through” that snow drift.
How many times have you seen cars in serious trouble because they tried to drive through a puddle when they couldn’t see the bottom, or driving in snow that obscured the road?
While I agree that right NOW your judgement in snow is better than a computers - but it won’t always be that way. Over time, the computer will get it right. And be better than you.
Now, until that happens - manual control will need to be an option.
BUT here’s my question to you - would it be really difficult, as things stand right now - to have the computer evaluate conditions and say
a) I am happy to drive in these conditions
b) My sensors are not good enough - human control required
c) Conditions are too dangerous even for a human driver
Exactly what he said
There are now computer controlled cars that can drift and computer control can be faster than a human on a racetrack.
The day that computers can take complete control is not so far away.
One thing to remember - while the scenario that was described here was saved by the computer aides - had the Camry been computer controlled, it would never have arisen in the first place
I was using it in the sense of “how the industry generally does it”, which is the original sense. As noted earlier, that car was bound to get itself in a problem where it needed a human to get it out. It still can’t handle a wide variety of situations, and is completely bound to the roads that Google has mapped for it. Even if it is the bleeding edge, it’s not practical, and It’s not as capable a driver as I am. I can handle snow, rain, areas that haven’t been mapped by Google, balls of paper, and stoplights I wasn’t informed about beforehand. Until Google solves it’s mapping problem, which it doesn’t seem to have a plan for at the moment (see the linked article), those cars will be a curiosity, making them mandatory isn’t even in the picture.
I think you misunderstand me. I think that the computer will never be really “in control” until you have a strong AI (and AI as least as smart as yourself) driving it. Until then, you’ll get more and more sophisticated driver’s aids, but you’ll still have to be available to drive when things get bad.
And well, if the Camry had been what we can currently do with self-driving cars, it wouldn’t have been out there in the first place, Google would have wisely stopped it due to the driving conditions. The self-driving car of any caliber isn’t going to be a panacea against emergencies happening in the first place. Cars will fail catastrophically, and sometimes come right for you. Right now, the self-driving car doesn’t even have a firm grip on what an emergency is. much less be able to resolve the large number of them that can happen while driving.
I totally disagree. 99.999% of driving is “Stay on the road, follow driving laws, don’t hit anything.” The remaining .001% can be handled by stopping until the danger passes.
Anything that actually requires human level intelligence to decipher isn’t going to be deciphered by a human quickly enough to act.
The overwhelming majority of accidents are due to driver inattention and error, not catastrophic failure or Act of God. Driver inattention is SOLVED with automated driving, the computer never gets tired or distracted, never looks at the pretty girl on the sidewalk, never changes the radio station, never picks up the phone. Driver error is SOLVED with automated driving, they don’t break the rules, they never speed, never run red lights, never back up on the highway because they missed their exit.
How many accidents do you think happen where the root cause isn’t “the driver fucked up”? They exist, for sure, but they aren’t that common.
Sure, but a human driver is still more capable than the current self-driving car design in almost every other way. The self-driving car solves inattentiveness, but it can’t handle 99% of the roads out there (most roads aren’t in Mountain View), and it can only handle them in relatively nice weather. It’s an impressive toy, but it’s far from an effective tool at the moment. And really, automatic brakes can be used to mitigate inattentiveness without conceding control to the car.
Many of the experts agree with me that you won’t have anything more capable than the Google car until you solve the computer vision problem, which is a very difficult AI problem in itself. After that, to get a car that you won’t need to occasionally drive, you’ll need an AI that has something akin to common sense. We don’t have that now, and there are no likely candidates on the horizon.
Scabpicker, your common sense comment here made me realize why 11 accidents caused by other drivers in only 1 million miles driven is not a good track record.
If a friend of mine said they were a good driver and only had 11 accidents in his million miles of lifetime driving, all caused by others of course, he would not live that one down in this lifetime.
If you have that many accidents you are doing something wrong. Per AAA human drivers on all roads in all conditions only have 4 to 5 accidents per million miles driven cite (pdf) page 4.
Try to understand. I get 20 to 30 FEET of snow every year. The road I live on is used by me and my neighboor. I CAN evaluate if it is safe or not to blow through a snow drift. If need be, I can get out and look around and on the other side of it.
Plenty. And If I get stuck in the snow, I walk home and get my truck and winch myself out. If I get through, I don’t have to walk.
Very, very doubtful. Again, very few people understand what’s it like to have to use 4x4 every day for six months out of the year. My driveway right now is very, very tricky because of the snow. I need to go to the end of the road, turn around and approach it with speed from a different angle than I usually do to get up it. A computer is just going to say ‘ummm… no’. And again, I play the odds. Should I plow first, or will I make it up? Maybe I don’t feel like plowing tonight and it’s worth the ‘risk’ of not making it up the drive. This is my choice.
a)- Fine as long as I can turn you off.
b)- Fine.
c)- Bullshit. I’ll make that decision.
Roads do get shut down because of weather or rock slides or whatever. Fine, I can find a different route. Even with 20-30 feet of snow a year, I’ve only not made it to work 3 times in 22 years. That’s driving over the continental divide at 11,500 feet.
I’ll not have a car tell me it’s too nasty to drive.
I want to make it clear that the 3 times I did not make it to work was because I deceided to not even try.
Nonsense. A strong AI must be able to pass the Turing test (at least) and handle a wide variety of tasks. A self-driving car must just drive. It does not need to climb stairs, it does not have to know how to cook, it can’t pick a melon.
Almost all driving is simple, and can be done on autopilot, which is why texters don’t cause more accidents. Most one in a million situations can be solved by simple rules. A kid runs out in front of you (or a ball) slow or stop. If the Big One hits and a pit opens in front of your car (more likely then ten feet of snow around here) stop before falling into it.
I have been involved in the design of diagnostic systems that beat AI systems by building on experience. People start from square zero. Each person has to learn to drive. If a car screws up because of an unanticipated situation, the software gets updated and no other car will have that problem. And it can be updated to all cars very quickly. Not AI. They will start as good or better than human drivers, but will soon exceed us.
Yes, that’s what I’m saying.
Could we cut this “only in Mountain View” crap out right now? The New Yorker article on the cars shows them driving on I880 which runs from Oakland through Fremont and Milpitas. I assume they take 237 to Mountain View. If you think this is a country drive, I invite you to drive with me in the morning and evening. 11 accidents in 1 million miles of 880 driving is damn good.
So, are you saying that self-driving cars will never catch on because of the few dozen people who get blocked by snow drifts a few times a year? Even when I lived in the East it has never happened to me. If you are saying that the cars won’t be mandatory in some places, fine. But they sure as hell will be everpresent.
This is exactly the same argument as the “no one will ever buy an electric car because I have to drive 100 miles to work” one.
Actually, those 11 accidents were across the entire fleet of Google driverless cars- 23 cars in total. That means they’ve each only had, on average, two accidents per million miles. Using just that ratio, they’re already twice as good at driving as we are.
My ONLY argument is that I want to have the ability to take control of the car when it cannot handle the conditions. That’s where I started and have ended. I SURE as hell don’t want it dictating to me whether or not I can go to work today. Would you?
Sure, if it had a better idea than I do whether driving conditions warrant it.
Bolding mine. That’s a BIG freaking IF if you ask me.
Warrant it??? Really. So it’s going to know just how important (or not) it is for you to be at work that day? Is that going to part of the input into the system?
I guess if you want a ‘snow’ day, you could always blame it on your stubborn car.
I believe we’ve already had this discussion. Suffice it to say that there are an almost infinite number of special cases that the car isn’t capable of handling, that any human could. There is currently no method of endowing this car with even the common sense necessary to drive in snow, and no public plan for making it capable of doing so.
Your examples in the quoted paragraph weren’t related to what I was speaking about, and I think you probably know they weren’t. If you didn’t, you were either woefully ignorant about the difficulties of making a self-driving car, or were ignoring them for some reason. How about just having it recognize a stop light that it wasn’t informed about, and reacting to it? Or being able to decide that the blowing paper in the street isn’t a problem? The article I linked to before quotes the Google developers as saying it would potentially blow through a street light that it hadn’t seen before – even if it recognized the light as a light, and knew it was red. It can’t tell the difference between a tow truck and a cop car, or an ordinary pedestrian and a cop (and as far as I can tell, it would just identify them as “object”). It also has problems with construction areas. That’s what the AI will need to be able to address before such cars can conceivably become mandatory, much less galavant around unattended.
No, we can’t drop it. It’s currently a convenient shorthand for “where Google has the resources to map”. They don’t have the capabilities to map the whole nation, much less the world, and they admit it. Without the map, the Google car goes at a screaming 2mph in fail-safe mode. You walk faster than that.
And, as noted above (thanks, TommyzNR, it’s nice to know that you can convince people!), 11 accidents in 1 million miles is lower than the average human. The human drives everywhere it pleases, in all weather. The bleeding edge of AI can’t even begin to do that. The Google car is impressive considering 10 years ago all of the self-driving cars couldn’t complete a closed course, but it’s got a ways to go.
No, those miles are across the whole fleet of cars. None of those cars has been out long enough to realistically travel 1 million miles.
Dear lady in the computer, do you see the avalanche ahead headed to the road we’re on? I’m asking because you missed the “road closed due to flooding” sign that the cops just put there. I suppose it might have something to do with the virus someone sent to the GPS satellite, or maybe your electronics are just a little off. I sure hope all self driving cars react the same when the line runs into a fog bank at 60MPH. Anyway, where’s the steering wheel?