# How long US military in Iraq **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 30, 2003, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-us-military-in-iraq/191793 "2003-07-30T00:43:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Susma\_Rio\_Sep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/35a633/32.png) [@Susma\_Rio\_Sep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Susma_Rio_Sep)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2003, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-us-military-in-iraq/191793/1 "2003-07-30T00:43:58Z")
The U.S. military juggernaut can stay forever in Iraq, keeping Iraqis subdued to the will of Washington; if no effectively sizable opposition develops among Americans in the U.S. homeland. How long can Iraqis last who are resisting and fighting against the U.S. military occupation? The answer depends upon: 1. How soon the U.S. military occupation can win over decisive numbers of Iraqis, with the introduction of all the favorable changes coming from Washington’s campaign of regime change; 2. How long the personnel and materiel resources of the Iraqi resistance/opposition can last; 3. How long the greater mass of Americans will continue to support the military occupation of Washington in Iraq over the Iraqi people. Shall we hear from the military, political, economic, cultural, and also very important, social anthropological experts/analysts here? Susma Rio Sep ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2003, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-us-military-in-iraq/191793/2 "2003-07-30T03:21:29Z")
This is a GD topic because there is no single, factual answer to any of the questions posed. ---
**Author:** ![xash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c6cbf5/32.png) [@xash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xash)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2003, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-us-military-in-iraq/191793/3 "2003-07-30T13:58:46Z")
**Susma Rio Sep** , there is no question in your OP that can have a factual answer. You have repeatedly flouted forum guidelines with regards to posting your questions in the correct forum. This is your first warning. There may not be a second. Do not do this again. I’m moving this to Great Debates. - **xash** General Questions Moderator ---
**Author:** ![alibey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ebca7d/32.png) [@alibey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alibey)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2003, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-us-military-in-iraq/191793/4 "2003-07-30T14:39:07Z")
how long was the American and Allied Military running Germany and Japan after WWII? use that as a starting point. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2003, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-us-military-in-iraq/191793/5 "2003-07-30T17:31:08Z")
Rumsfeld has told Congress that he now predicts American troops will be in Iraq for 5-10 years, IIRC. Which is noticably longer than the “one or two years” he was touting before the war began. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2003, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-us-military-in-iraq/191793/6 "2003-07-30T19:25:55Z")
I side with \*_alibey_ on this. If the occupation is going to have a lasting effect that is useful and peaceful, the Americans will have to stay in Iraq about as long as they hung around Japan (who regained self rule in 1952, though an American military prescence lingered) and West Germany (1948, and ditto). Anyone who was dumb enough to buy a “one or two years” assessment was… well, dumb. I favoured the war, but I had no illusions about the length of time required to pacify Iraq after the battles were over. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2003, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-us-military-in-iraq/191793/7 "2003-07-30T20:28:08Z")
Something that goes along w/ a WWII assumption is a reconstrcution plan that’s analguous to the Marshall plan. I hope to Og that the invasion of Iraq makes things over there wonderful. I’d love to see Iraq emerge as an industrial powerhouse like Germany. The differences between WWII and today are vast and myriad. So far, though, the reconstruction of Iraq is sort of touch and go. Congress is pressing for reasonable estimates so that they can fund the reconstruction. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2003, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-us-military-in-iraq/191793/8 "2003-07-30T21:20:25Z")
Barring opposition to US presence turning into a large scale, lengthy guerilla war ala Vietnam, I don’t think the US is planning on leaving. Even once formal occupation is over and the number of military personnel reduced, bases for US forces and a smaller actual military presence will likely be maintained. The US is committed to having a presence in the region, and bases in Saudi Arabia have been closed. As has been mentioned, US presence lingered in Germany and Japan and still continues today. As to how long the Iraqi opposition will last, there’s no way to tell for certain. The Pentagon is frankly guessing in its estimates of the numbers in the opposition, though they don’t have much choice in the matter. I personally don’t see it ending anytime terribly soon, though.