# How long will bin Laden remain at large? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 27, 2008, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674 "2008-11-27T06:41:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2008, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/21 "2008-11-27T18:56:26Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > We’ve had video’s from him referencing current events (current at the time it surfaced in 2007) so we know he wasn’t killed at **Bora Bora**. I knew the Bush administration was incompetent, but this suprises me. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2008, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/22 "2008-11-27T19:14:22Z")
Quoth **Dex** : > [@](#): > > While we have no evidence that he’s dead, we also have no evidence that he’s alive. Seems to me that if he were alive, he’d be taunting us on a fairly regular basis, with videos or newscasts or something. The absence of evidence that he’s alive (when he WANTS publicity) is pretty indicative that he’s dead. Added to that, last we knew, he had several chronic health problems, and he can’t be getting the best medical care out in the middle of nowhere. A heroic death as a martyr would certainly be widely publicized, but there’s not much his supporters can do with natural death by kidney failure, so the silence probably does mean that’s what happened. But it doesn’t really matter anyway. Dead or alive, bin Laden has always been a symptom, not the problem himself. Even if he were dead (whether from natural causes or an acute case of high-velocity lead poisoning), someone would step up to take his place. And even if we were to completely wipe out the entire hierarchy of al Qaeda, some other terrorist organization would take their place. We need to either get so good at rooting out terrorists that we can catch them faster than they recruit (which seems unlikely to me), or win the morale war against them to prevent the next group from cropping up. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2008, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/23 "2008-11-28T01:58:20Z")
[Iran and World](http://iranandworld.com/showarticle.asp?id=2721) Benny has croaked a while ago. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2008, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/24 "2008-11-28T07:00:46Z")
> [@C\_K\_Dexter\_Haven](#): > > While we have no evidence that he’s dead, we also have no evidence that he’s alive. Seems to me that if he were alive, he’d be taunting us on a fairly regular basis, with videos or newscasts or something. The absence of evidence that he’s alive (when he WANTS publicity) is pretty indicative that he’s dead. Bin Laden has sent [23 video or audio messages since the 2001 attacks](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Videos_of_Osama_bin_Laden#March_20.2C_2008). Many reference current events. Four have been sent in 2008. So we certainly have evidence that Bin Laden is alive, and none that he is dead. ---
**Author:** ![Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a9a28c/32.png) [@Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oslo_Ostragoth)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2008, 7:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/25 "2008-11-28T07:07:26Z")
> [@Ferris](#): > > How likely is this scenario? > > … > > President Obama will succeed in eliminating the U.S.A’s No. 1 enemy, and if so, when, how and to what effect? No. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2008, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/26 "2008-11-28T12:18:43Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > I knew the Bush administration was incompetent, but this suprises me. Tora Bora then.:smack: Not that an incompetent like Bush could lay a finger BL if the guy was in the process of inserting himself ungreased up Bush’s own ass. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2008, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/27 "2008-11-28T13:41:20Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > [Iran and World](http://iranandworld.com/showarticle.asp?id=2721) Benny has croaked a while ago. He put out a video message in September 2007, which makes it unlikely he died before the publication of this article in March 2007. No matter who is president, even with a larger force on the lookout, catching Bin Laden is a very tall order. He’s surrounded by a small and apparently very loyal group and is hiding in a vast area that’s hard to get into and very hard to search. Finding him would take luck and probably a major, extended effort. > [@tagos](#): > > If he was dead I think his death as a martyr would be used as a recruitment tool and pretense for savagery. As opposed to his life, which has been used for the exact same things. I’m sure there would be retalation if he were killed, but he’s devoted his life to inspiring terrorism, so it’s not like he’s worth more in those terms if he is dead. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2008, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/28 "2008-11-28T13:47:48Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > He put out a video message in September 2007, which makes it unlikely he died before the publication of this article in March 2007. > > No matter who is president, even with a larger force on the lookout, catching Bin Laden is a very tall order. He’s surrounded by a small and apparently very loyal group and is hiding in a vast area that’s hard to get into and very hard to search. Finding him would take luck and probably a major, extended effort. > As opposed to his life, which has been used for the exact same things. I’m sure there would be retalation if he were killed, but he’s devoted his life to inspiring terrorism, so it’s not like he’s worth more in those terms if he is dead. Martyrs, particularly to the religiously insane, are always worth more. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2008, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/29 "2008-11-28T13:57:49Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > Martyrs, particularly to the religiously insane, are always worth more. I don’t think that rule holds in his case. If he’s alive and free, he’s Robin Hood, if he’s dead, he’s a martyr. I can’t see one as much worse than the other. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2008, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/30 "2008-11-28T21:31:48Z")
Again, not all dead heroes are martyrs. If he were killed in an American attack, then he’d be a martyr, but death by natural causes does not a martyrdom make. If he were alive, then I would expect him to have commented on the US election, and if he were dead from enemy action, then I would expect his compatriots to have publicized the event as a martyrdom. Since neither of these has happened, I suspect that he has died of natural causes: It’s the only scenario that seems consistent with silence. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2008, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/31 "2008-11-29T00:11:53Z")
It’s always possible. I’m just not going to be sold in it without more proof. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2008, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/32 "2008-11-29T20:56:14Z")
Bush and Cheney need their boogie man to be alive to keep the Americans afraid. A lot of countries and sources say he is dead. The Israelis claimed his videos are faked. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2008, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/33 "2008-11-29T21:40:33Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Bush and Cheney need their boogie man to be alive to keep the Americans afraid. A lot of countries and sources say he is dead. The Israelis claimed his videos are faked. Have you got a cite for that? Since Bush and Cheney will be gone in about seven weeks, are you expecting Obama to quickly announce that Bin Laden is dead? ---
**Author:** ![Markxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5daacb/32.png) [@Markxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Markxxx)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2008, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/34 "2008-11-30T03:59:02Z")
Certainly Osama matters, unless you can’t catch him, then those who failed will say he doesn’t. It’ll take decades for him to turn into a Castro, someone who was a thorn in your side, then just died off. If Osama is in Pakistan, which doesn’t control it’s own borders, he’s safe. Pakistan has nukes, this is WHY countries want them, because even small amounts of nukes make you safe. If Iraq had nukes there would have been no attack on it. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2008, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/35 "2008-11-30T23:20:20Z")
[http://www.nogw.com/download/2006\_osama\_dead.pdf](http://www.nogw.com/download/2006_osama_dead.pdf) There are sources that say he is dead. A teen could fake videos. There has been nobody who has laid eyes on him in a long time. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2008, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/36 "2008-11-30T23:38:02Z")
[http://spaces.muxlim.com/UmmNaeema/blog/34288/osama-bin-laden-dead-in-case-you-haven-t-figured-it-out](http://spaces.muxlim.com/UmmNaeema/blog/34288/osama-bin-laden-dead-in-case-you-haven-t-figured-it-out) There are several sources like this around. They are convinced he died of natural causes. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2008, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/37 "2008-12-01T02:11:18Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > [http://spaces.muxlim.com/UmmNaeema/blog/34288/osama-bin-laden-dead-in-case-you-haven-t-figured-it-out](http://spaces.muxlim.com/UmmNaeema/blog/34288/osama-bin-laden-dead-in-case-you-haven-t-figured-it-out) There are several sources like this around. They are convinced he died of natural causes. In 2001, 2004 or 2006? ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2008, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/38 "2008-12-01T02:46:58Z")
Fact is we do not know. Many middle east experts disagree. Pick one you like. I am open minded and do not know if he is dead or alive. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2008, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/39 "2008-12-01T03:06:05Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > I am open minded and do not know if he is dead or alive. That’s not what you appeared to be saying earlier. I don’t know for sure either, but I think if there was convincing evidence he was dead, it would be public. ---
**Author:** ![Ferris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ferris/32/11573_2.png) [@Ferris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ferris)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2008, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/40 "2008-12-01T08:24:13Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > I’d appreciate it if the OP would explain the premise a bit further. Are we assuming that bin Laden himself continues to actually come up with or facilitate (in any practical sense) any terrorist actions? Are we assuming that Islamist terrorism would suddenly dry up if he were captured or killed? Thanks for the thought and clarification. OK, to add a bit of detail, I’m assuming that bin Laden’s future involvement with terrorist actions is very limited: giving his approval to plans brought to him, and ‘rallying the troops’ with the odd audio tape. I definitely do not assume that his capture or death would have any significant effect on the number or organisation of terrorists. A ‘spike’ in terrorist action might occur as a form of retaliation. [QUOTE=Marley23] Finding him would take luck and probably a major, extended effort. [/QUOTE] I agree. There seems to be common ground here that given the uncertainty of his even still being alive, that making all that effort might not be worth it. So what would be a reasonable limit (dollars, manpower, time) beyond which the U.S government should abandon all efforts to bring bin Laden to justice? [QUOTE=Marley23] Since Bush and Cheney will be gone in about seven weeks, are you expecting Obama to quickly announce that Bin Laden is dead? [/QUOTE] I’d be surprised if this happened! My main contention is that President Obama _will_ go after bin Laden. It’ll take a while, won’t end any attacks, but will provide some closure. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674.md?page=3)