# How long will bin Laden remain at large? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 27, 2008, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674 "2008-11-27T06:41:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2008, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/41 "2008-12-01T16:09:03Z")
First off, Pakistan will not allow, under any circumstances barring total rebellion, U.S. raids acros the border. The limited efforts we’ve made so far already antogonized them and Obama, unless he is a total idiot, will not go further. Period. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2008, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/42 "2008-12-01T21:01:55Z")
He’s alive. I saw him at my subway stop last week; he likes to hang out there. I assume he’s constantly praying when I see him…though maybe he’s just talking to himself. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2008, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/43 "2008-12-01T22:47:41Z")
No idea how long he’ll remain large and in charge…er, I mean at large. As others have said, we haven’t heard anything from him since 2007, so there is a distinct possibility he’s already shuffled off this mortal coil. Hopefully he died alone and in pain in the dark. It would also be nice if there actually was a god, and if s/he/it is currently having a heart to heart conversation with good ole ObL…one involving eternal fire, pitchforks, demons and all that jazz. > [@](#): > > "Soon after President-elect Obama enters office, military efforts against al-Qaeda in the Pakistan/Afghanistan border area will be stepped up. As the withdrawal of troops from Iraq starts, significant resources will be reassigned to hunt for bin Laden. Well, this is what Obama says he’s going to do. Looking at a map of the region though, I have my doubts it will do much good. Assuming he’s actually in Pakistan (and in a really NASTY part of Pakistan too boot), there isn’t a hell of a lot we could do about that, unless we want to further piss off the Pakistani’s. Just because Obama is the president now instead of Bush isn’t going to magically make it cool for us to cross the border to whack AQ terrorists. Even if we could cross the border I don’t think many people have ever bothered to look at what that area looks like…we could deploy our entire armed forces to those mountains and they would be swallowed up. And trying to support large forces in there would be a nightmare…as would our casualties. > [@](#): > > On the Afghanistan side, major efforts to reduce the available support to bin Laden will be made, with U.S troops establishing a presence along the border. On the Afghanistan side, extreme pressure will be placed on Pakistan to allow similar, joint U.S/Pakistan missions. Air and satellite reconnaissance will also be stepped up. No chance that we could apply enough pressure to make Pakistan do this. Even when we had a quasi-friendly Pakistani government, their PEOPLE wouldn’t go for this. And the folks on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan don’t much like US OR the Pakistani government. Again, even if you could get the Pakistani’s to agree to this, it would be a logistics nightmare to try and put anything but special ops teams into that area. Look at a topographical map of the region some time, then try and figure out how we’d supply large formations in there. > [@](#): > > President Obama will succeed in eliminating the U.S.A’s No. 1 enemy, and if so, when, how and to what effect? No, I don’t think he will, and I don’t think he will even try. If we redeploy significant troops from Iraq to Afghanistan (something that is far from certain), it will be to combat the Taliban and attempt to stabilize the Afghani government…it won’t be to hunt for ObL in any stepped up way (we are ALREADY hunting for him as much as I think we could, using special ops teams and local support…that’s really the best we COULD do). -XT ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/44 "2008-12-02T00:33:39Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > (we are ALREADY hunting for him as much as I think we could, using special ops teams and local support…that’s really the best we COULD do). You forgot letting CIA desk jockeys flying R/C planes shoot hellfire missiles at every tall guy in a burnoose. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/45 "2008-12-02T00:50:24Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > And given the nature of the North-West Frontier ‘in hiding’ is probably quite salubrious. He’s not cowering in a cave. Oooh, [new word](http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/cowering)! ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/46 "2008-12-02T01:18:22Z")
[QUOTE=carnivorousplant] You forgot letting CIA desk jockeys flying R/C planes shoot hellfire missiles at every tall guy in a burnoose. [/QUOTE] Leaving the hyperbole aside, we are doing that already. The OP seemed to be implying that we’d be doing more and on a larger scale. I don’t see us doing more than the occasional cross border raid we are currently doing…and certainly don’t see any reason we’d deploy a large number of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan with the sole or even primary purpose of getting ObL…or even just up in those gawd awful mountains. That would be a good way to get a hell of a lot of our troops killed to no real meaningful purpose IMHO. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a9a28c/32.png) [@Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oslo_Ostragoth)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2008, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674/47 "2008-12-02T05:08:50Z")
> [@Ferris](#): > > President Obama will succeed in eliminating the U.S.A’s No. 1 enemy, and if so, when, how and to what effect? Are you implying, or even stating outright, that anything less than maximum practical effort is being exerted now? You gotta give me a cite for that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-will-bin-laden-remain-at-large/474674.md?page=2)