# How long would civilization last if all males became sterile? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 12, 2019, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562 "2019-08-12T17:03:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/1 "2019-08-12T17:03:42Z")
The hypothetical is that some disease sterilizes all human males. Without exception, and I realize that’s virtually impossible, but don’t fight the hypothetical. Say it’s alien space bats that do it, if that makes you happier. Anyway, no one can find a cure or immunization for the sterility, so humanity is reduced to using whatever sperm banks have on hand. The question is, how long could civilization last in this situation? Some thoughts: only one sperm actually fertilizes an egg, but somewhere (likely here on the SDMB) I read that it actually takes a few million or so sperm to dig into an egg in order for that one sperm to do the fertilization. If that’s true, the available sperm can’t be spread out too thinly. Civilization needs a certain minimum number of people to make it run, say half a billion or so, so the reproduction rate can’t be reduced too far. The thing is, I have no idea how much stock sperm banks keep on hand. I suspect not a lot. Also, I’m not sure how many countries even have sperm banks. I suspect they don’t exist in much of the world, but could easily be wrong on that. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/2 "2019-08-12T17:12:59Z")
In your hypothetical is it only the current living males who are sterile, or will all future males being conceived (from, say, sperm banks) also be sterile? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/3 "2019-08-12T17:18:18Z")
If it were a high priority (which it would be), we could develop the technology for women to reproduce without men, within the lifespan of those currently alive. So civilization could continue indefinitely. The biggest risk would be that the discovery of the sterility would be the catalyst for a global nuclear war, as various nations blamed The Others for causing the sterility, or thought that The Others had a cure that they were withholding, or decided that since The End is Nigh anyway, there’s nothing left to lose. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/4 "2019-08-12T17:19:48Z")
All future males will be sterile too. The disease is still around and it’d be impossible to keep kids from getting it. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/5 "2019-08-12T17:25:25Z")
Under lab conditions, it is possible to have female-only reproduction. For example [Mouse Created From All-Female DNA](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/Technology/story?id=118237&page=1). If all men became sterile, I’d imagine that there would be a lot of work directed at finding similar techniques for humans. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/6 "2019-08-12T17:31:33Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > If it were a high priority (which it would be), we could develop the technology for women to reproduce without men, within the lifespan of those currently alive. Since we haven’t developed that technology yet, there’s a possibility that it’s impossible for some reason. OK, that’s also not too likely, but lets assume it for this question. > [@](#): > > So civilization could continue indefinitely. The biggest risk would be that the discovery of the sterility would be the catalyst for a global nuclear war, as various nations blamed The Others for causing the sterility, or thought that The Others had a cure that they were withholding, or decided that since The End is Nigh anyway, there’s nothing left to lose. Also assume that nuclear war does not break out, or at least is limited to not being a major problem for humanity going forward. ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/7 "2019-08-12T17:50:35Z")
And what if all females went sterile? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/8 "2019-08-12T18:02:38Z")
Just in really round numbers, the world has seen something like 7 or 8 billion successful impregnations in the last 80 or so years. There’s _no way_ that the world’s sperm banks (and medical experts necessary to effect the procedure) could match that sort of volume. Not even close. For most everyone, there’d be no more children, and populations would start to decline rapidly, and what we call “civilization” would grind to a halt over the next few decades. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/9 "2019-08-12T18:14:48Z")
Is this a Valerie Solanas kind of question we’re asking here? Radical solution to misogyny, etc? ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/10 "2019-08-12T19:24:42Z")
Define civilization. With IVF and the available frozen sperm on hand, you could prolong a very small civilization (village) for a very long time. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/11 "2019-08-12T19:43:24Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > Define civilization. With IVF and the available frozen sperm on hand, you could prolong a very small civilization (village) for a very long time. The OP says: > [@dtilque](#): > > … Civilization needs a certain minimum number of people to make it run, say half a billion or so, so the reproduction rate can’t be reduced too far. … I don’t know that I agree with the number given, but if all that’s left is a “village”, I don’t think that really counts for the OP’s purposes. Just one “village” is probably going to see it’s lifestyle regress to something more like 18th century living. They wouldn’t be able to produce more automobiles, or refrigerators, or paint. Virtually no additional movies or books would be released. I’d be impressed if they could keep a steady supply of electricity for themselves. Research and development efforts in a whole swath of fields would come to a halt. Tasks like training new doctors would be a real challenge, etc. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/12 "2019-08-12T20:01:11Z")
There are hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of [already-fertilized frozen embryos](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/features/nation-s-fertility-clinics-struggle-growing-number-abandoned-embryos-n1040806) in deep freezes in the US alone, plus more in Western Europe, Japan, etc. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/13 "2019-08-12T20:44:13Z")
There were something like 140 million live births last year. “hundreds of thousands” of frozen embryos are barely going to put a dent in replacing those, even if all the necessary technicians, doctors, facilities, (and willing patients!) were available to perform the procedures. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/14 "2019-08-12T21:01:04Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > There were something like 140 million live births last year. “hundreds of thousands” of frozen embryos are barely going to put a dent in replacing those, even if all the necessary technicians, doctors, facilities, (and willing patients!) were available to perform the procedures. There were 3.8 million live births in the U.S., against the hundreds of thousands to low millions of frozen embryos here. If you want a kid, and the choice is a frozen embryo or no kid, then you’ll find willing patients. There are of course far fewer, if any, frozen embryos in the high-birth-rate countries of sub-Saharan Africa, etc.; I do not know how many may exist in Canada, Australia, Japan, the UK, etc. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/15 "2019-08-12T21:01:36Z")
> [@AHunter3](#): > > Is this a Valerie Solanas kind of question we’re asking here? Radical solution to misogyny, etc? I don’t recognize that name. But the question is more in the line of research for a fictional story. Chances are I’ll never write it, but I like to work out the details of the background in my head. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t know that I agree with the number given, I just pulled a number out of my nether orifice. Perhaps the number is only 100 million or even less. Certainly lots more than a million, though. If you think half a billion is too high, go with 100 million. How many fertilizations per year do we need to maintain a population of 100 mIllion? Do we have enough medical people to do that many IVFs? Can the process be streamlined to do more with fewer people? > [@slash2k](#): > > There are hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of [already-fertilized frozen embryos](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/features/nation-s-fertility-clinics-struggle-growing-number-abandoned-embryos-n1040806) in deep freezes in the US alone, plus more in Western Europe, Japan, etc. Yes, those could be used. I expect most, if not all, sperm banks, fertility clinics, and any other potentially useful facilities to be nationalized in such an emergency and any rights anyone had to the contents thereof to be taken away. ---
**Author:** ![Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blue_blistering_barnacle/32/3386_2.png) [@Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blue_Blistering_Barnacle)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/16 "2019-08-12T21:19:02Z")
For some reason I find myself thinking about Cordwainer Smith. “The Crime and the Glory of Commander Suzdal” > **[The Crime and the Glory of Commander Suzdal](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crime_and_the_Glory_of_Commander_Suzdal)** > > "The Crime and the Glory of Commander Suzdal" is a science fiction short story by Cordwainer Smith, set in Smith's "Instrumentality" universe. It was first published in Amazing Stories in May 1964, and is collected in The Rediscovery of Man compendium. > Commander Suzdal is a captain of "The Navy and the Instrumentality" sent on a "one man" mission of exploration (in actuality he is accompanied by several generations of "Turtle-People"). He hibernates in cryogenic sleep while long-lived turtle un... From the Wikipedia article on the story: > [@](#): > > A deep space probe is found. It tells a brilliantly conceived but utterly false story about the plight of a group of settlers calling themselves the Arachosians. Suzdal is deceived and turns his ship towards the planet Arachosia and reenters hibernation. > > When he arrives he learns the horrible truth. The original settlers nearly became extinct, succumbing to a plague that (in Smith’s words) rendered “femininity carcinogenic.” They were only able to save their women by chemically (and later genetically) making them male. However, the resulting society is deeply unbalanced by the lack of females and ordinary family structure. The Arachosians, not truly male or female and calling themselves “klopts”, realize on an instinctive level what they are missing and as a result, hate normal human beings with unbridled fervor and regard them as abominations to be destroyed (even though they have not seen one in many generations). To carry out this plan, they have dispatched traps in the form of messages, such as the one Suzdal encountered, throughout the galaxy. ---
**Author:** ![ASL\_v2.0](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asl_v2.0/32/3525_2.png) [@ASL\_v2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ASL_v2.0)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/17 "2019-08-12T21:25:52Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > I don’t recognize that name. But the question is more in the line of research for a fictional story. Chances are I’ll never write it, but I like to work out the details of the background in my head. Just try not to make it too much like “Children of Men.” Because apart from your premise requiring that it specifically be the males that are sterile (why does it matter? Does it change your premise much if it’s just that for “reasons” people can’t reproduce anymore?) that’s basically the world “Children of Men” is set in. It’s been 20 years since the last infant was born, things have gone to shit, and then one day… ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/18 "2019-08-12T21:40:00Z")
Even if alternate methods of conception were cheap and easy (e.g. at home kits sold at 7-11), it would likely mean that conception became more of a choice. Accidental pregnancy would not be an issue. I suspect that many people would not really try all that hard to get pregnant. Even when everything is working normally it can take many tries to get pregnant. I don’t know how dedicated people would be if they had to keep buying kits or getting procedures done to get pregnant. Some people do endless IVF, but I don’t think most people want kids that badly. I also don’t know how dedicated people would be to the cause of carrying on the human race. If society is collapsing because of the resulting population decline, would people want to bring a baby into that world? Even now, people have concerns about bring kids into the world we have today with all the social unrest and climate issues. I would think there would be even more worries in a world in decline. ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/19 "2019-08-12T21:43:10Z")
We’ve been able to clone mammals since the 1980’s. So we have the technology available to create new humans even apart from ordinary reproduction or using frozen sperm (which will of course run out eventually). It would be an existential crisis, and we’d have twenty years to ramp up facilities for artificial insemination/cloning before the working-age population started to suffer. I’m pretty sure any high-tech developed country could manage this. The developing world would be screwed, however. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562/20 "2019-08-12T22:17:53Z")
IVF treatment seems like a reasonable approximation of whatever no-sperm-necessary wizardry we might invent to keep the human race going once the sperm banks and egg freezers are drained. [WebMD](https://www.webmd.com/infertility-and-reproduction/guide/in-vitro-fertilization#2) describes the process like this: > [@](#): > > The first step in IVF involves injecting hormones so you produce multiple eggs each month instead of only one.You will then be tested to determine whether you’re ready for egg retrieval. > > Prior to the retrieval procedure, you will be given injections of a medication that ripens the developing eggs and starts the process of ovulation. Timing is important; the eggs must be retrieved just before they emerge from the follicles in the ovaries. If the eggs are taken out too early or too late, they won’t develop normally. Your doctor may do blood tests or an ultrasound to be sure the eggs are at the right stage of development before retrieving them. The IVF facility will provide you with special instructions to follow the night before and the day of the procedure. Most women are given pain medication and the choice of being mildly sedated or going under full anesthesia. > > During the procedure, your doctor will locate follicles in the ovary with ultrasound and remove the eggs with a hollow needle. The procedure usually takes less than 30 minutes, but may take up to an hour. > > Immediately following the retrieval, your eggs will be mixed in the laboratory with your partner’s sperm, which he will have donated on the same day. > > While you and your partner go home, the fertilized eggs are kept in the clinic under observation to ensure optimal growth. Depending on the clinic, you may even wait up to five days until the embryo reaches a more advanced blastocyst stage. > > Once the embryos are ready, you will return to the IVF facility so doctors can transfer one or more into your uterus. This procedure is quicker and easier than the retrieval of the egg. The doctor will insert a flexible tube called a catheter through your vagina and cervix and into your uterus, where the embryos will be deposited. To increase the chances of pregnancy, most IVF experts recommend transferring up to three embryos at a time. However, this means you could have a multiple pregnancy, which can increase the health risks for both you and the babies. The article mentions success rates of ~20-40%, but that’s probably driven by the self-selecting group of women who are already having difficulty getting pregnant. If we started doing it for all sorts of young, healthy women, I suspect you’d get better results. [https://www.pennmedicine.org/updates/blogs/fertility-blog/2018/march/ivf-by-the-numbers](https://www.pennmedicine.org/updates/blogs/fertility-blog/2018/march/ivf-by-the-numbers) says there were 61,740 IVF births in 2012 (in the US), roughly 1-2% of all births. To keep the population going at the present level, we’d need to train about 50-100 times as many doctors and lab technicians in the new process than we have IVF-performing fertility docs and support staff today. I don’t think we have the med school capacity / internship opportunities / whatever to do that, and we can only really start after we’ve ironed out the kinks in the new cloning / sperm-free process, a fairly heavy R&D lift, I think, that could span years or decades. I imagine it’d be something like the Apollo program or the Manhattan Project in terms of national urgency, but still seems tough to pull off. And that’s, of course, focusing on the US. Other modern democracies might be able to roughly approximate our effort, but like Aspidistra said, “The developing world would be screwed”, as in, essentially cease to exist in a few decades. I suspect America would be the most populous nation in the world by 2100 at the latest. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-civilization-last-if-all-males-became-sterile/838562.md?page=2)