# How long would it take for a modern city to disintegrate... **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [August 2, 2010, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887 "2010-08-02T14:00:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2025, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/21 "2025-11-22T15:09:58Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > That’s debatable. Some people feel that since all of the easily available resources have already been tapped, if our present civilization falls no technologically advanced culture will ever again be able to arise. They won’t be able to get what they need to bootstrap themselves up. I think that this view is too… Hmm, what’s a good word… Not anthropomorphic because we’re talking about humans all around… To convinced that the path _we_ took to get where we are is the _only_ path that gets here. Let’s be clear, the only “available resources” that you could be referring to here are hydrocarbons that we burn for energy. Yes, we mined up much of the metal that’s easy to get to, but we didn’t atomize that metal; it’s going to be much easier to get metal out of the ruins of New York City than it is to get metal out of a vein in the belly of a mountain. And things like forests and herds of animals will come back if civilization goes away. So the question is whether society can industrialize without easy access to hydrocarbon based energy. And it helps to keep in mind that wind and hydro power are both in fact older than steam power. In China, they were doing some pretty serious metal crafting on a massive scale using hydro power; and the Romans were likewise pseudo-industrialized. If our planet didn’t have massive stores of hydrocarbons from the Carboniferous, I think it’s quite likely that someone somewhere would have eventually discovered electricity even without steam power, and from there, they already had wind and water wheels that could drive a generator. And eventually, you can make fuel from crops, if you come up with the idea. In our world, in a post apocalyptic situation, the survivors would have the benefit of knowing that such things are possible, so they’re even more likely to go towards biofuels. A society that never finds hydrocarbons laying around may never think to make corn into fuel, but a society on post apocalyptic Earth would find evidence of internal combustion engines everywhere. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2025, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/22 "2025-11-22T15:11:51Z")
> [@lazybratsche](#): > > In a few hundred years, forests will grow back – at least enough to run a small steam-powered civilization until they rediscover coal or wind and solar power. Right. They might never discover coal if all the easily discoverable coal is gone (or if this society evolved on a planet with a geologic history that didn’t allow for the formation of large coal seams) but they _would_ discover charcoal, water wheels, and windmills. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2025, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/23 "2025-11-22T15:13:03Z")
Oops, I didn’t realize that this was a zombie thread. Zombies would make rebuilding society a lot harder. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2025, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/24 "2025-11-22T15:38:08Z")
Not harder, just much slower in development. And everything would have to be within shambling distance. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2025, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/25 "2025-11-22T16:00:56Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Zombies would make rebuilding society a lot harder. Until somebody realizes they can generate electricity by putting zombies in giant hamster wheels… ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2025, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/26 "2025-11-22T16:17:58Z")
I’m a bit puzzled by how in the movie “Beneath The Planet Of The Apes”, supposedly a civilization-ending thermonuclear war took place– and yet the ruins of New York City still stand, albeit a bit worse for 2000 years of wear: [![](https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-umrvVs-SmBU/WMIii71G9zI/AAAAAAACQ9Y/Qi9j0VATryc8m7MDpTMzYdB-PUhCp4gIwCLcB/s1600/Beneath%2BThe%2BPlanet%2BOf%2BThe%2BApes%2B%25287%2529.jpg) ](https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-umrvVs-SmBU/WMIii71G9zI/AAAAAAACQ9Y/Qi9j0VATryc8m7MDpTMzYdB-PUhCp4gIwCLcB/s1600/Beneath%2BThe%2BPlanet%2BOf%2BThe%2BApes%2B%25287%2529.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2025, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/27 "2025-11-22T16:42:18Z")
It’s just artistic license, there’d be nothing significant left after so long. A modern city would be pretty much gone in decades, at most. I recall reading that the developers of Fallout III asked experts how much would be left 200 years after the apocalypse and the answer was “basically nothing”. So they essentially said “oh well” and decided to entirely ignore that so the setting could have proper post-nuclear ruins anyway. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2025, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/28 "2025-11-22T18:10:48Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > And it helps to keep in mind that wind and hydro power are both in fact older than steam power. In China, they were doing some pretty serious metal crafting on a massive scale using hydro power; and the Romans were likewise pseudo-industrialized. Way older than steam. A noted Roman use of water power is a big mill near Arles, France: [Barbegal aqueduct and mills - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbegal_aqueduct_and_mills). Wind mills were invented in Persia somewhere in the 700-900 A.D. period. Fulling mills, using water power for processing wool, were common in the Medieval period, dating from the late 11th century. But even after the steam engine was invented, they still used water and wind power for mills. For example, sawmills and grist mills were commonly built near water falls and rapids on the American frontier to take advantage of the water power. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2025, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/29 "2025-11-23T05:22:59Z")
> [@bob\_2](#): > > For a real life example, look up Varosha, an abandoned resort in Cyprus. Yes, also discussed in _The World Without Us._ ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2025, 6:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/30 "2025-11-23T06:36:50Z")
We’ve found previously undiscovered abandoned settlements in the Amazon, that have been taken over by foliage. There’s also Pripiyat, abandoned after the Chernobyl disaster. ---
**Author:** ![md-2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@md-2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md-2000)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2025, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/31 "2025-11-23T21:31:18Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > I recall reading that the developers of Fallout III asked experts how much would be left 200 years after the apocalypse and the answer was “basically nothing”. So they essentially said “oh well” and decided to entirely ignore that so the setting could have proper post-nuclear ruins anyway. Considering some Roman ruins and roads are still partially intact after 2,000 years, I would be surprised if the basic concrete structures did not remain fairly intact. I would expect steel skyscrapers to start to disintegrate over the hundreds or so years. (Any examples of those old iron age steel structures not maintained over a century or more?) how much maintenance do they actually do to exterior of structures like the Brooklyn bridge towers, or the exterior of the Empire State building? I would assume failure would happen when the windows fail and water (weathering) gets into the building. How often does window glass fail without the assistance of humans? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2025, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/32 "2025-11-23T21:41:27Z")
> [@md-2000](#): > > I would expect steel skyscrapers to start to disintegrate over the hundreds or so years. (Any examples of those old iron age steel structures not maintained over a century or more?) > > how much maintenance do they actually do to exterior of structures like the Brooklyn bridge towers, or the exterior of the Empire State building? Googling, it appears the estimate is that unmaintained skyscrapers would last between fifty to a hundred years (more complicated parts like elevators would fail faster). And apparently both the Empire State Building and Brooklyn Bridge have undergone major renovation [projects.](https://www.parsons.com/project/brooklyn-bridge-rehabilitation-brooklyn-ny/) ---
**Author:** ![md-2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@md-2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md-2000)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2025, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/33 "2025-11-25T06:34:38Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Googling, it appears the estimate is that unmaintained skyscrapers would last between fifty to a hundred years (more complicated parts like elevators would fail faster). The question I guess is whether this means “apparently intact”? I would imagine as partial relics several hundred feet tall, they would remain much longer. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2025, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/34 "2025-11-25T07:06:33Z")
> [@md-2000](#): > > The question I guess is whether this means “apparently intact”? I would imagine as partial relics several hundred feet tall, they would remain much longer. I doubt that. They aren’t solid construction of rock or concrete, they are complicated, mostly hollow buildings largely made of (rustable) steel that I’d expect to decay rapidly once their internal components are exposed to the weather. ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Nerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ed655f/32.png) [@Ancient\_Nerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Nerd)\ **Post date:** [November 27, 2025, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/35 "2025-11-27T21:43:11Z")
> **[Babylon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babylon)** > > Babylon (/ˈbæbɪlɒn/ BAB-il-on) was an ancient city located on the lower Euphrates river in southern Mesopotamia, within modern-day Hillah, Iraq, about 85 kilometres (53 miles) south of modern-day Baghdad. Babylon functioned as the main cultural and political centre of the Akkadian-speaking region of Babylonia. Its rulers established two important empires in antiquity, the 19th–16th century BC Old Babylonian Empire, and the 7th–6th century BC Neo-Babylonian Empire. Babylon was also used as a regio... > Babylon stopped functioning as an urban centre between the 2nd century BC and the 7th century CE. Over those 700 years, it gradually declined from a major city to near-total abandonment. Small communities have continued to live in the area, and nearby towns such as Hillah remain inhabited on the historical site. 1300 years later, the ruins of Babylon are still there and archologists explore them from time to time. ---
**Author:** ![ThisOneGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c0e974/32.png) [@ThisOneGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisOneGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2025, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/36 "2025-12-02T21:34:24Z")
Many in this thread seem to be answering “how long till you wouldn’t want to live there” rather than " boundless and bare The lone and level sands stretch far away." The answer to the first is decades, but without being buried by a volcano or swept away by a flood the second is many millenia. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2025, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/37 "2025-12-04T01:50:28Z")
> [@Ancient\_Nerd](#): > > 1300 years later, the ruins of Babylon are still there and archologists explore them from time to time. They used different construction methods. Big piles of clay, earth and stone don’t rust. Our taller and lighter buildings are inherently more fragile once they start to break down. ---
**Author:** ![md-2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@md-2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md-2000)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/38 "2025-12-05T06:38:26Z")
Ran across this as a side note in some news report: > **[North and South Brother Islands (New York City)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_and_South_Brother_Islands_(New_York_City))** > > North and South Brother Islands are a pair of small islands located in New York City's East River between the mainland Bronx and Rikers Island. North Brother Island was once the site of the Riverside Hospital for quarantinable diseases but is now uninhabited. The islands had long been privately owned, but were purchased by the federal government in 2007 with some funding from the Trust for Public Land and others; both were given to the city. They were then designated as sanctuaries for water ... After 60 years of abandonment, definite signs of deterioration. Some building burned a few years ago. Access is forbidden except for serious scientific reasons. However, the brick walls will likely last a few decades or centuries more. I wonder to what extent we can take examples like the many ruined cathedrals and monasteries (and castles) of Britain. Mortar and concrete likely last better than steel construction. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2025, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/39 "2025-12-05T21:43:01Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Big piles of clay, earth and stone don’t rust. … but they most certainly have other issues: rain/water/”splash” comes to mind … and quakes … both are notoriously incompatible with clay/earth/stone/adobe building… That material is mostly used for one reason: it’s FREE … not b/c it is durable in time source: Al128, who lived in an adobe house 4 or 5 years. [![](https://i.postimg.cc/N08PCQPV/image.png) ](https://i.postimg.cc/N08PCQPV/image.png) ---
**Author:** ![md-2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@md-2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md-2000)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2025, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887/40 "2025-12-06T02:08:14Z")
Freeze-thaw cycle is worst in the temperate zones, obviously. Also, I recall reading a number of classic downtown buildings in one city were rendered effectively derelict when the city removed the central steam plant - without heat, the interior plaster absorbed condensation in the cold months and became spongy. It wasn’t worth installing new boliers in a hundred-year-old building. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-it-take-for-a-modern-city-to-disintegrate/548887.md?page=3)