# How long would the US last in a war with China? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 30, 2015, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829 "2015-06-30T01:34:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/81 "2015-07-03T13:42:56Z")
What nobody has mentioned is the fact that military-style wars are passe. Any war between the USA and China will be in cyberspace. It will involve sophisticated on-line hacks, viruses, worms, and network shutdowns. suppose the Chinese found a way to cancell all credit card purchases in the USA? then the US economy would halt-banks could not get paid, consumers could not buy, vendors would not be paid. That would be far more devastating than sinking a few ships. ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/82 "2015-07-03T16:13:10Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > What nobody has mentioned is the fact that military-style wars are passe. Any war between the USA and China will be in cyberspace. It will involve sophisticated on-line hacks, viruses, worms, and network shutdowns. suppose the Chinese found a way to cancell all credit card purchases in the USA? then the US economy would halt-banks could not get paid, consumers could not buy, vendors would not be paid. > That would be far more devastating than sinking a few ships. Well, I think it would give someone the edge to then bring more conventional materiel into play. In the end you want to achieve some actual gain besides having shut down part of the infrastructure for a while. ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/83 "2015-07-03T16:16:11Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > It is mischiefmaking but a lot of people are concerned the F35 is trying to be all things to all people. It’s a lot of money to go wrong … There is of course the spectre where armchair tacticians get it drastically wrong. Like not fitting the Phantom with cannon, because the new sidewinder was going to make cannons obsolete. Or wanting to scrap the A-10. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/84 "2015-07-03T16:39:10Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Where do you get these numbers from? Lockheed Martin is producing dozens of F-35’s every year, and that’s just the LOW-RATE initial production. At full production, they expect to produce more than 150 F-35s each year. > > Raytheon produces something like 70 AMRAAMs each month. > > Our shipyards are turning out two Virginia-class submarines every year. > > Sure, it’s not like the good old days in WWII where they’d slap a destroyer together in a week, but the US is certainly capable of producing and fielding new equipment during the course of a war. MRAPs are proof of that. The first funding for long-lead items for F-35 LRIP lot 8 was in 2013. Deliveries start in 2016. So that’s three years, not five, but my point stands. The USS Illinois was put on contract in December 2008. The keel was laid a few weeks ago, and it is going to be delivered to the Navy in mid-2016. I can look up the AIM-120 production schedule, but it is roughly two years from the time the money arrives at Raytheon until a missile is delivered from a factory. You don’t exactly go down to Radio Shack to buy solid rocket motors and small x-band radars. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/85 "2015-07-03T18:40:29Z")
Chinas one child policy means that unless China itself was invaded any other war would meet massive resistance. China never fights well outside of its borders, ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/86 "2015-07-03T18:53:38Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Chinas one child policy means that unless China itself was invaded any other war would meet massive resistance. China never fights well outside of its borders, That is an utterly bizarre statement. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/87 "2015-07-03T19:00:01Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > That is an utterly bizarre statement. You know little about Chinese history ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/88 "2015-07-03T19:12:08Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Chinas one child policy means that unless China itself was invaded any other war would meet massive resistance. China never fights well outside of its borders, > [@even\_sven](#): > > That is an utterly bizarre statement. [QUOTE-madsircool] you know little about Chinese history [/QUOTE] I think even sven was talking about your two separate lines of thought; the part of about China not fighting well outside it’s borders is arguable, but you may have a point there; but the “one child” policy meaning that any war not on the mainland would meet massive resistance? I think I am with sven and you need to show your work there, mad. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/89 "2015-07-03T19:14:46Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > [QUOTE-madsircool] > you know little about Chinese history > > I think even sven was talking about your two separate lines of thought; the part of about China not fighting well outside it’s borders is arguable, but you may have a point there; but the “one child” policy meaning that any war not on the mainland would meet massive resistance? I think I am with sven and you need to show your work there, mad. Put yourself in parent mode: Would you risk the life of your only child on a foreign war? ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/90 "2015-07-03T19:18:51Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Right, how about the economic reality of China being the USAs largest creditor with £1.32 trillion of Treasury Bonds, and also 30,000 tonnes of gold to hit the market with. > > That’s one crashed and crushed enemy economy: poof! If there’s a war between the US and China, what do you think the United States will do with all those IOUs? Continue to pay them, all while we’re shooting at China? Those IOUs will be suspended and never repaid except as a condition of the peace treaty. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/91 "2015-07-03T21:06:55Z")
The US doesn’t have to buy them. You flood the market. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/92 "2015-07-03T21:15:30Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > The US doesn’t have to buy them. You flood the market. With…what? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/93 "2015-07-03T21:25:34Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Put yourself in parent mode: Would you risk the life of your only child on a foreign war? Never heard of Chinese nationalism, eh? Can I ask, what is your source of expertise in China? ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2015, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/94 "2015-07-03T21:39:25Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Put yourself in parent mode: Would you risk the life of your only child on a foreign war? Plenty of only-children are in militaries, so I’m guessing it happens. Perhaps more relevently here, the one-child policy is FAR from universal. I’m sure Chinese people don’t want to see their kids die, but they aren’t in some special category because of that. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2015, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/95 "2015-07-04T01:50:44Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Never heard of Chinese nationalism, eh? > > Can I ask, what is your source of expertise in China? Studied it in college. China has not fought well outside its borders. Vietnam…India…clashes with the Soviets. China is basically impotent in relation to its size when trying to project power. Of course there is strong Chinese nationalism but there really isnt a history of foreign military adventure. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2015, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/96 "2015-07-04T02:27:00Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > suppose the Chinese found a way to cancell all credit card purchases in the USA? then the US economy would halt-banks could not get paid, consumers could not buy, vendors would not be paid. > That would be far more devastating than sinking a few ships. It’s not clear to me what this cancellation consists of. If you are thinking that stuff I have bought I now get for free, I doubt it because of storage redundancy. If it just means that credit card machines don’t work for a couple hours, I don’t think it amounts to much. If for a couple days, that would be both probably impossible and far less devastating that sinking a few ships. Historically, sinking a few ships leads the US into wars (“Remember the Maine” – Spanish American War; Lusitania – World War I; Pearl Harbor – World War II). War with China would be a lot more expensive than this, but the cost of the Iraq war was, for the US, over $2 trillion: [http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/14/us-iraq-war-anniversary-idUSBRE92D0PG20130314](http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/14/us-iraq-war-anniversary-idUSBRE92D0PG20130314) The cost of a whole year of US credit card transactions – not a day or two, but a whole year – is not quite $2 trillion: > **[2011 Credit Card Facts & Statistics - Free Infographic Report -...](https://www.indexcreditcards.com/finance/creditcardstatistics/2011-report-on-credit-card-usage-facts-statistics.html)** > > People still generally don't leave home without it, but in the wake of the recession of 2008-2010, the credit card today isn't quite as popular as it once was. Still, it remains a major force in the U.S. economy.  Here are some facts and figures... Cyber war would be, as war goes, wonderful. To quote Phil Ochs, “if you ever get a war without blood and gore, I’ll be the first to go.”\* Little did Phil know that it would soon be an actual possibility. But, while cyber war could be a little part of a war, it’s too good to be true that it would be the main part. * * * - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFFOUkipI4U](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFFOUkipI4U) ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2015, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/97 "2015-07-04T04:09:18Z")
People who say that the USA or China couldn’t ever go to war because such a war wouldn’t make practical sense are ignoring the snowball effect. Prior to World War I, nobody would have said that an assassin’s bullet was worth the death of millions of soldiers. But one thing led to another, and then one thing led to another, and then one thing led to another, and then one thing led to another, and then one thing led to another, and then one thing led to another, and then one thing led to another… …and then, yes, millions of people ultimately did die just because of one measly assassination. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2015, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/98 "2015-07-04T04:28:02Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Put yourself in parent mode: Would you risk the life of your only child on a foreign war? The PLA is a volunteer military. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2015, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/99 "2015-07-04T05:04:45Z")
Didn’t see post 98. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2015, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829/100 "2015-07-04T13:31:42Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > Well, I think it would give someone the edge to then bring more conventional materiel into play. > In the end you want to achieve some actual gain besides having shut down part of the infrastructure for a while. Again, just how do you invade China? If we sent troops there, how would they occupy such a vast country. Face it, the Japanese tried invading China, how did that work out? The whole idea is simply crazy. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-would-the-us-last-in-a-war-with-china/723829.md?page=6)