# How many Iraqis have died because of the war & occupation? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 22, 2005, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658 "2005-03-22T00:45:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2005, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/1 "2005-03-22T00:45:36Z")
How many Iraqis have died because of the Coalition invasion and occupation? I’m looking for a total figure, including both combatant and civilian casualties – and those killed by Iraqi troops during the war and by insurgent freedom fighters/terrorists/whatever after active combat operations ended. (Whether the Coalition bears responsibility for the latter is debatable – but I want to include them on the grounds that nearly all of them still would be alive if the war had never happened.) According to this account ([http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=2472](http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=2472)) from Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, estimates range from 16,500 (CBS Evening News) to more than 100,000 (British medical journal _The Lancet_). That’s one whopping margin of uncertainty! Can anybody shed some light on it? Perhaps I should post this in GQ because I’m looking for a simple factual answer, if possible. But I think it’s bound to wind up in GQ, for obvious reasons, so I’m starting it here. Mods, move it if you think that’s appropriate. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2005, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/2 "2005-03-22T00:50:23Z")
Sorry, I mean, “I think it’s bound to wind up in **GD,** for obvious reasons.” ---
**Author:** ![Plan\_B](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Plan\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plan_B)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2005, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/3 "2005-03-22T02:28:15Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > How many Iraqis have died because of the Coalition invasion and occupation? I’m looking for a total figure, including both combatant and civilian casualties – and those killed by Iraqi troops during the war and by insurgent freedom fighters/terrorists/whatever after active combat operations ended. (Whether the Coalition bears responsibility for the latter is debatable – but I want to include them on the grounds that nearly all of them still would be alive if the war had never happened.) > > According to this account ([FAIR - FAIR is the national progressive media watchdog group, challenging corporate media bias, spin and misinformation.](http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=2472)) from Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, estimates range from 16,500 (CBS Evening News) to more than 100,000 (British medical journal _The Lancet_). 1st point: It’s doubtful that all of them would be alive today. Remember that there was a very high death rate under Saddam. Some were estimating 5,000 children a month becaue of the sanctions/corruption in oil for food, oppression of minorities, etc. No way of knowing the exact numbers but almost certainly higher than it’s been for the last two years. 2nd point: The Lancet stats are pretty much useless. They conducted a survey that estimated something like 8,000 to 200,000 deaths so they just chose a number in the middle. Lots of methodological problems with this one. Let’s hope that recent positive trends continue and that Iraq permanently joins the peace loving democracies. Hopefully in a year or so no one will be talking about recent war related deaths. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2005, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/4 "2005-03-22T03:28:06Z")
> [@Plan B](#): > > Remember that there was a very high death rate under Saddam. Some were estimating 5,000 children a month becaue of the sanctions/corruption in oil for food, oppression of minorities, etc. No way of knowing the exact numbers but almost certainly higher than it’s been for the last two years. Cite? Especially for that last sentence? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2005, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/5 "2005-03-22T03:42:22Z")
I suppose it all depends on who you believe BG. As I’ve posted (numerous times) in other threads, here is [IBC’s estimate](http://www.iraqbodycount.net/): Min:17085 Max:19457 They have a blurb on the Lancett study as well. Personally, as I said in the two or three other threads that Lancett came up in, I don’t find it very useful for various reasons. However, if you want to go with that, others will agree I’m sure. I’ll go with part of it…I’m reasonable sure the actual count IS between 8000 and 194,000. -XT ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2005, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/6 "2005-03-22T03:50:54Z")
> [@Plan B](#): > > 1st point: It’s doubtful that all of them would be alive today. Remember that there was a very high death rate under Saddam. Some were estimating 5,000 children a month becaue of the sanctions/corruption in oil for food, oppression of minorities, etc. No way of knowing the exact numbers but almost certainly higher than it’s been for the last two years. > > 2nd point: The Lancet stats are pretty much useless. They conducted a survey that estimated something like 8,000 to 200,000 deaths so they just chose a number in the middle. Lots of methodological problems with this one. The Lancet’s numbers represent deaths over and above the pre-invasion fatality rates. At best, 8000 _more_ people have died than in a like period before the war. The fatality rate in Iraq had increased, it’s just a question of how much. I recall reading the study, and the difficulty the survey team had in gathering data. It was the loose definitions of “household”, among other things, that resulted in the wide spread, not the methodology. I’d link to a copy of the study and quote the relevant bits but it doesn’t seem to be available gratis anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2005, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/7 "2005-03-22T04:12:15Z")
If American soldiers would lose their appetite for freshly harvested infant hearts, the death rate would probably be lower. Additionally, the tradition of serving the flesh of innocent Iraqis at the monthly Neo-con world domination parties should stop as well. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2005, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/8 "2005-03-22T04:12:26Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > estimates range from 16,500 (CBS Evening News) This is pretty obviously a lowball estimate. There’ve been at least 1500 US military personel killed, and in combat reports we typically see 20 to 30 or more insurgents killed per US death. That’d give a figure of about 37,000 Iraqi deaths. Of course this ignores remote attacks, like roadside bombs, or cruise missiles, but those factor in on both sides of the estimate. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2005, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/9 "2005-03-22T04:28:23Z")
> [@Evil One](#): > > If American soldiers would lose their appetite for freshly harvested infant hearts, the death rate would probably be lower. Additionally, the tradition of serving the flesh of innocent Iraqis at the monthly Neo-con world domination parties should stop as well. Letting Halliburton sub-contract food services is just one example of the poor planning behind this war. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2005, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/10 "2005-03-22T04:39:11Z")
> [@The Tooth](#): > > Letting Halliburton sub-contract food services is just one example of the poor planning behind this war. Why? From what I understand live boiled Iraqi children taste like chicken… -XT ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2005, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/11 "2005-03-22T04:51:06Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Why? From what I understand live boiled Iraqi children taste like chicken… > > -XT Pork, actually. 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2005, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/12 "2005-03-23T02:23:28Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > This is pretty obviously a lowball estimate. There’ve been at least 1500 US military personel killed, and in combat reports we typically see 20 to 30 or more insurgents killed per US death. That’d give a figure of about 37,000 Iraqi deaths. > Of course this ignores remote attacks, like roadside bombs, or cruise missiles, but those factor in on both sides of the estimate. Then when all the Iraqis are dead, we can move in at our pleasure. I mean that was our plan after all? Because the US Government, its Allies in Iraq, the US Military, are just Nazi stormtroopers in diguise, and Hitler wasn’t dead, he was a lizard, changed his suit and turned in GWB. What? ---
**Author:** ![Plan\_B](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Plan\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Plan_B)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2005, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/13 "2005-03-23T03:29:28Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Cite? Especially for that last sentence? It took me about five minutes to find this one; I’m sure there are more. > **[FAIR hypes shaky estimate of Iraqi casualties](https://www.brendan-nyhan.com/blog/2005/03/fair_hypes_shak.html)** > > The political abuse of statistics continues. In an action alert sent to its email list today, the liberals at Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting claim that Iraqi civilian casualty estimates of 16,500-20,000 offered by the network newscasts, including... While you’re there, make sure to follow all the links and read them fully. It will give you some valuable context on this issue. I’m feeling like the straight man on this one. I should be joining the sub-thread already. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2005, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/14 "2005-03-23T04:18:34Z")
I don’t generally like using a blog as a reference because anyone can write any old thing, but since [this](http://leninology.blogspot.com/2004_10_01_leninology_archive.html#10992266679126213) article includes correspondence from one of the survey’s authors I think it’s a cut above: > [@](#): > > First, violence accounted for only 2% of deaths before the war and was the main cause of death after the invasion. That is something new, consistent with the dramatic rise in mortality and reduces the likelihood that the true number was at the lower end of the confidence range. Secondly, there is the Falluja data, which imply that there are pockets of Anbar, or other communities like Falluja, experiencing intense conflict, that have far more deaths than the rest of the country. We set that aside these data in statistical analysis because the result in this cluster was such an outlier, but it tells us that the true death toll is far more likely to be on the high-side of our point estimate than on the low side. So it’s not a crapshoot: the probability of the actual number being at the low end of the confidence interval is not the same as it being at the high end. It’s not fair to say the number is equally likely to be 8000 as 194 000. ---
**Author:** ![cosmosdan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a6a055/32.png) [@cosmosdan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cosmosdan)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2005, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/15 "2005-03-23T04:22:07Z")
[QUOTE] > [@Plan B](#): > > 1st point: It’s doubtful that all of them would be alive today. Remember that there was a very high death rate under Saddam. Some were estimating 5,000 children a month becaue of the sanctions/corruption in oil for food, oppression of minorities, etc. No way of knowing the exact numbers but almost certainly higher than it’s been for the last two years. While I agree some would die under Saddam there’s no way of knowing whether there would be more now or not. One difference is that under Saddam he was directly and indirectly respinsible for many deaths. Under the current conditions , we are. > [@](#): > > Let’s hope that recent positive trends continue and that Iraq permanently joins the peace loving democracies. Hopefully in a year or so no one will be talking about recent war related deaths. Hopefully in a year or so?..Ahhhh my mind is at ease. Only a year or so of deaths to be responsible for. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2005, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/16 "2005-03-23T04:30:13Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > What? If the kill ratio of our professional military against Iraqi irregulars is less than 10:1, we’re fucking up big time. That implies that you can take the mortality figures for US troops, multiply by a minimum of 10, and get an estimate of Iraqi deaths. 10 X 1524 = 15000. If you count non-american coalition members it’s 10 X 1700 = 17000. The later is already larger than the CBS estimate. By all reports, the actual kill ratio is much greater than 10:1. In Fallujah for instance, we lost less than 100 troops, while reports of Iraqi deaths go to 2000 or more. In the latest insurgent attack south of Baghdad, [they lost 27 to our zero.](http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Mar2005/20050322_278.html) The news has been running like this for two years, so the kill ratio is obviously closer to 30:1 than 10:1. That implies at least 35,000 Iraqi deaths. Simple enough for you, or do you _need_ to invoke Hitler to understand the math? ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2005, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/17 "2005-03-23T04:34:24Z")
Simple answer: too many. ---
**Author:** ![Walloon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/fbc32d/32.png) [@Walloon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walloon)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2005, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/18 "2005-03-23T05:21:59Z")
What percentage were killed by their fellow Iraqis? ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2005, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/19 "2005-03-23T15:19:28Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > I suppose it all depends on who you believe BG. As I’ve posted (numerous times) in other threads, here is [IBC’s estimate](http://www.iraqbodycount.net/): > > Min:17085 Max:19457 This is a more narrowly defined set - ‘reported killed _by_ the occupation’ opposed to ‘as a result iof the occupation’. Thus those who died as a result of poor drinking water or from a lack of available healthcare are not included. From IBC: “It only includes individual or cumulative deaths as directly reported by the media or tallied by official bodies (for instance, by hospitals, morgues and, in a few cases so far, NGOs), and subsequently reported in the media.” Second IBC merely measures _civilian_ deaths. Combatants’ deaths are not a part of their total. > [@xtisme](#): > > …I’m reasonable sure the actual count IS between 8000 and 194,000. > -XT Did they generate some sort of a probability curve? Are some totals morel likely than others? > [@Squink](#): > > If the kill ratio of our professional military against Iraqi irregulars is less than 10:1, we’re fucking up big time. … That implies at least 35,000 Iraqi deaths. Simple enough for you, or do you _need_ to invoke Hitler to understand the math? Apparently, the CBS estimates is of Iraqis, not merely Iraqi combatants. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2005, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658/20 "2005-03-23T15:49:05Z")
Of course the use of the word “occupation” is a statement in and of itself. Of course the radical Sunnis see us as occupiers. We took the power away from them. But do the majority of Shiites and Kurds see us as occupiers? My guess is that they would use “liberators”…but that would convey a positive message instead of a negative one, so we’d better just sweep that little idea under the rug. Regarding kill ratio, it appears to hover between 20 and 25 to one. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-iraqis-have-died-because-of-the-war-occupation/295658.md?page=2)