# How many of California's federal representatives to the house are republicans now **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 13, 2018, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437 "2018-11-13T00:19:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Yookeroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yookeroo/32/323_2.png) [@Yookeroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yookeroo)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/21 "2018-11-17T01:18:44Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > And the 45th has now flipped. It’s right in the middle of Orange County. [Democrat Katie Porter flips U.S. House seat in California's Reagan country, beats GOP incumbent Mimi Walters | AP News](https://apnews.com/ea379b7d1e9641a18537ea14c27125a9) All of (notoriously conservative) Orange County went Dem. Trump has really lost the GOP the suburbs. Good. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/22 "2018-11-17T01:42:03Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Gil Cisneros is now in the lead. > > Edit: by a thousand votes? wow. Could’ve sworn his lead was only a few hundred votes not long ago. > > Looks like 8 republicans, 45 democrats in the house from California. Nice. It’s now over 3000 votes. > [@Yookeroo](#): > > All of (notoriously conservative) Orange County went Dem. Trump has really lost the GOP the suburbs. Good. Fucking Californians on the new tax bill was a bad idea. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/23 "2018-11-17T03:40:30Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Fucking Californians on the new tax bill was a bad idea. That’s a good point. How many of the democratic pickups are from districts hit by the tax law and the SALT deductions? I assume upper middle class households in California, New york and New Jersey were hit hard by the tax law. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2018, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/24 "2018-11-18T14:44:35Z")
The 39th has been [declared](https://www.apnews.com/4cf871d084ff48999e4138112336ca69) for the Dem. He is also a big lottery winner. $ So: Final tally 45-8 . ---
**Author:** ![friedo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8edcca/32.png) [@friedo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/friedo)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2018, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/25 "2018-11-18T16:30:55Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > That’s a good point. How many of the democratic pickups are from districts hit by the tax law and the SALT deductions? > > I assume upper middle class households in California, New york and New Jersey were hit hard by the tax law. All of New Jersey’s suburban Republican districts flipped. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2018, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/26 "2018-11-18T18:28:47Z")
> [@friedo](#): > > All of New Jersey’s suburban Republican districts flipped. IIRC, all of New York City’s rep are now Dems. But it only required flipping 1 seat. ---
**Author:** ![friedo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8edcca/32.png) [@friedo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/friedo)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2018, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/27 "2018-11-18T18:34:13Z")
Yeah, that was not particularly surprising though. Staten Island has been a R stronghold for decades but only barely. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2018, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/28 "2018-11-18T19:13:14Z")
On _Meet the Press_ this AM, Chuck Todd noted that that there is now only 1 Congressional district of the lower 48 that touches the Pacific Coast that is Republican. That 1 district is in WA. I think he may have made the mistake of leaving out the “lower 48” part when he talked about this. IIRC, he did not include Alaska or Hawaii on the map he showed-- just CA, OR and WA. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2018, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/29 "2018-11-18T20:03:59Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > On _Meet the Press_ this AM, Chuck Todd noted that that there is now only 1 Congressional district of the lower 48 that touches the Pacific Coast that is Republican. That 1 district is in WA. I think he may have made the mistake of leaving out the “lower 48” part when he talked about this. IIRC, he did not include Alaska or Hawaii on the map he showed-- just CA, OR and WA. None of the house seats in new england are currently republican now either. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2018, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/30 "2018-11-18T20:32:23Z")
This is better suited to Elections. Colibri General Questions Moderator ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2018, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/31 "2018-11-18T21:12:01Z")
> [@friedo](#): > > Yeah, that was not particularly surprising though. **Staten Island has been a R stronghold for decades but only barely**. I think this sentence is an oxymoron. Just sayin’. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2018, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/32 "2018-11-18T22:16:20Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > I think this sentence is an oxymoron. Just sayin’. 😛 I see your dilemma :), but if you follow NY politics it actually makes perfect sense. “Stronghold”: Going back to about 1982 or something, a Republican has virtually always won whatever district Staten Island was in. I’m sure there are congressional districts (Nebraska’s 3rd district, several districts in OK and UT and SC, say) that have always gone Republican during this time, but the Staten Island seat came mighty close to that level of consistency. “Just barely”: many, though not all, of the elections were pretty close, forcing the Republicans to spend a lot of money, campaign hard, etc. So, the GOP wound up almost always in control of the district, but couldn’t count on it from one year to the next. Weird wording, true, but very apt. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2018, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/33 "2018-11-19T15:02:48Z")
> [@ftg](#): > > The 39th has been [declared](https://www.apnews.com/4cf871d084ff48999e4138112336ca69) for the Dem. > > He is also a big lottery winner. $ > > So: Final tally 45-8 . [Nate Silver’s been saying](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062847177565880320) [CA-21](https://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/21) isn’t over yet. So probably 45-8, but possibly 46-7. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2018, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/34 "2018-11-19T15:08:09Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > [Nate Silver’s been saying](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062847177565880320) [CA-21](https://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/21) isn’t over yet. > > So probably 45-8, but possibly 46-7. A 2200 vote difference??? Seriously? That was said 5 days ago. I think it’s likely that is not the current feeling? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2018, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/35 "2018-11-19T15:13:35Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > A 2200 vote difference??? Seriously? > > That was said 5 days ago. I think it’s likely that is not the current feeling? None of the outstanding ballots have been counted in the meantime (or at least, there’s been no change in the CA SoS site’s counts), and Nate’s most recent tweet about CA-21 was still that Cox could still pull it out. ETA: I have done exactly zero analysis of this race myself. But if Nate Silver says it ain’t over, it probably ain’t over. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2018, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/36 "2018-11-19T16:40:11Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > None of the outstanding ballots have been counted in the meantime (or at least, there’s been no change in the CA SoS site’s counts), and Nate’s most recent tweet about CA-21 was still that Cox could still pull it out. > > ETA: I have done exactly zero analysis of this race myself. But if Nate Silver says it ain’t over, it probably ain’t over. Mainly because there are still a lot of ballots to count in the most Democratic part of the district. It’s still rather a long shot, but Cox does have a chance. And this was a race that was called for the Republicans by the networks ages ago! ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2018, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/37 "2018-11-19T18:39:32Z")
The interesting thing about this race is that Valadao’s now quite the outlier in terms of being a Republican holding on (if he does so!) in a very Democratic district (Cook PVI of D+5). As best as I can tell, only one other Republican, John Katko in NY-24 which is D+3, will still represent a district that leans Dem as measured by the Cook PVI. The Republicans won’t even hold any seats with a Cook PVI of Even in the new Congress. And Nate Silver [still calls this a tossup](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064580965236908032): > [@](#): > > Democrats are currently at 38 pickups and have 4 remaining opportunities to pick up an additional seat or two. > > CA-21 (Valadao): We rate as a Tossup > UT-4 (Love): Lean R > GA-7 (Woodall): Likely R > NY-27 (Collins): Likely R (TX-23 isn’t listed because Ortiz Jones (D) just conceded to Hurd (R). NY-22 isn’t listed because 538 has called that as a Dem pickup.) ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2018, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/38 "2018-11-24T22:14:12Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > A 2200 vote difference??? Seriously? > > That was said 5 days ago. I think it’s likely that is not the current feeling? It’s now 447 votes and still uncalled. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2018, 10:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/39 "2018-11-25T10:54:19Z")
And I’ve made the offer in other threads, so I should do so here: if anyone wants to put down an even-money bet on Valadao, I’m ready to put a few bucks down on T.J. Cox. Looks like another batch of ballots will be counted by Monday evening, bets should be made before then…🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2018, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437/40 "2018-11-25T13:29:31Z")
I assume that that’s meant as a show of solidarity, not as an actual hope for profit? Because even the most optimistic projections still show the race as favoring Valadao. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-many-of-californias-federal-representatives-to-the-house-are-republicans-now/824437.md?page=3)