# How might a ground battle between NATO and Russia in Ukraine go? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 3, 2014, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721 "2014-03-03T01:31:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2014, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/41 "2014-08-31T03:49:24Z")
B-2 airstrikes. Lots of them. No ground troops. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2014, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/42 "2014-08-31T03:51:22Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > There seems to be no way such a war would not spiral up into a nuclear exchange. I don’t see why it would. The Ukraine isn’t worth either Russia or the USA going nuclear over. ---
**Author:** ![chacoguy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/50afbb/32.png) [@chacoguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chacoguy)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2014, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/43 "2014-08-31T03:53:44Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > You don’t. Limit the theater of operations to just Ukraine and you lose. The direction to send at least have the NATO force is through Poland into Russia itself. > > Would it escalate? Damn straight. But any other path leads to a loss. The way to win is to not allow your opponent to choose the field of battle. > > Still, it’s silly to speculate. However, Anne Applebaum’s column this morning [sure caught my attention](http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/anne-applebaum-war-in-europe-is-not-a-hysterical-idea/2014/08/29/815f29d4-2f93-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html). With all due respect, you and Anne Applebaum are out of your goddamned minds. ---
**Author:** ![chacoguy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/50afbb/32.png) [@chacoguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chacoguy)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2014, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/44 "2014-08-31T03:55:17Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I don’t see why it would. The Ukraine isn’t worth either Russia or the USA going nuclear over. It’s all fun and games until someone accidentally bombs Coventry. ---
**Author:** ![thirdname](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/d07c76/32.png) [@thirdname](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thirdname)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2014, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/45 "2014-08-31T04:11:18Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > B-2 airstrikes. Lots of them. > No ground troops. 19 aircraft, which can only operate at night, can’t win a war. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2014, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/46 "2014-08-31T11:10:38Z")
> [@chacoguy](#): > > With all due respect, you and Anne Applebaum are out of your goddamned minds. Oh, I’m not advocating it by any means. And it’s some scary shit. It begins to feel like the 70s and early 80s again visit a vis US-Russian/Soviet relations. As for Applebaum, she’s a Russian and Eastern Europe specialist who lives in Poland and is strongly plugged into Eastern European governments at the highest level. Toss in her Pulitzer for writing on Russia and Eastern Europe and she’s got a better feel that we do. That’s what makes it so frightening. ---
**Author:** ![Atomic\_Alex](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atomic_alex/32/175_2.png) [@Atomic\_Alex](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atomic_Alex)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2014, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/47 "2014-08-31T19:13:21Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > There seems to be no way such a war would not spiral up into a nuclear exchange. I agree with Velocity, sure it _could_ escalate to those levels but really its not the Cold War anymore, why would Russia and the West necessarily resort to nukes when they aren’t even fighting on their own soil? btw this is a fascinating question, thanks Habeed. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2014, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/48 "2014-08-31T19:43:16Z")
> [@Bagpiper1917](#): > > Overtime it’s an easy equation that the U.S./NATO would win. Russia is experiencing crashing birthrates where they’ve been depopulating hard for over the past twenty years. According to CIA statistics they’re down to 138 million citizens while the U.S. is approaching 315 million. Russia is their own worst enemy as their demographic population decline is on track to bring them down to under 100 million citizens in the next thirty to forty years. > > It turns out that vodka, heroin, increased divorce rates and abortions are more effective weapons against Russia than the M1A1, Minuteman III or the M-16 ever were. Add to this our European allies and the outcome is a no brainer. You’re aware that Russia’s population experienced natural increase in the last two years, right? And that the birth rate decline seems to have mostly bottomed out? Russia’s population is probably going to start declining again in a few years, because of the age structure of the population, but now that they’ve got their fertility rates increasing, I strongly doubt they’re ever going to ‘drop below 100 million’. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/49 "2014-09-01T06:24:46Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Oh, I’m not advocating it by any means. And it’s some scary shit. It begins to feel like the 70s and early 80s again visit a vis US-Russian/Soviet relations. > > As for Applebaum, she’s a Russian and Eastern Europe specialist who lives in Poland and is strongly plugged into Eastern European governments at the highest level. Toss in her Pulitzer for writing on Russia and Eastern Europe and she’s got a better feel that we do. That’s what makes it so frightening. She is also sleeping with the [Polish Foreign Minister](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rados%C5%82aw_Sikorski#Personal_life). ---
**Author:** ![Boogly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Boogly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boogly)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/50 "2014-09-01T06:53:58Z")
Is NATO totally neutered without the US as an immediate back up? Can NATO field enough ground forces in a gradual build up of forces in the Ukraine? Or can NATO field enough air forces or anti-air forces in a rapid build up in the Ukraine? In a battle defensive forces are likely to take less losses in an engagement…is NATO not able to supply anti-air and/or anti-armor weapons in significant numbers and in a timely manner? In very broad strokes this could be Putin telling the world that the US (NATOlol) can’t protect everyone…and this could be where NATO shows that they don’t need the US to be effective. Again very broad strokes from a person who doesn’t come close to knowing all the details… ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/51 "2014-09-01T07:06:57Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > However, Anne Applebaum’s column this morning [sure caught my attention](http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/anne-applebaum-war-in-europe-is-not-a-hysterical-idea/2014/08/29/815f29d4-2f93-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html). > [@Anne Applebaum](#): > > A far more serious person, the dissident Russian analyst Andrei Piontkovsky, has recently published an article arguing, along lines that echo Zhirinovsky’s threats, that Putin really is weighing the possibility of limited nuclear strikes — perhaps against one of the Baltic capitals, perhaps a Polish city — to prove that NATO is a hollow, meaningless entity that won’t dare strike back for fear of a greater catastrophe. If Putin is really weighing such a possibility, then Putin is genuinely batshit crazy. I would suspect that the only possible American response to a Russian _nuclear attack_ on a NATO ally would be an immediate all-out counterforce strike on Russia–launch our nukes at their nukes and try to take out as many of their warheads as we could before the crazy man over there nukes _us_. It wouldn’t work of course, but I would bet that’s what we’d do, because what the fuck hell else could we do, and then it’s Game Over for Western (and Russian) Civilization. And I think the Shirtless One is probably non-crazy enough to know that. I think a _slightly_ more plausible road to World War III might involve something like Russia trying to pull a Crimea in some place like [Ida-Viru County in Estonia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ida-Viru_County)–right on the Russian border, about 125 miles from St. Petersburg; “contains most of Estonia’s energy resources”; and, oh, yeah, has a population that’s over 70% Russian. Get a bunch of “oppressed Russians” forming a “local self-defense militia” (with a lot of uniforms and weapons that they, uh, got from Army-Navy surplus stores, natch) then “declaring independence” and then “asking to be reunified with the Motherland”. Or some similar stunt in some part of Latvia, which also still has [a large number of ethnically Russian people](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2075.html#lg). _Then_ Putin would truly see if NATO is “a hollow, meaningless entity” or not. (I’m not saying I think that’s what’s going to happen. Russia already had troops present in Crimea, by agreement with the Ukrainians, which of course they don’t in Estonia and Latvia. Estonia and Latvia are both NATO members. Just that something like that is more likely than Russia just up and nuking Riga.) ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 8:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/52 "2014-09-01T08:07:30Z")
While a nuclear attack on a non nuclear NATO country will certainly have very serious strategic repercussions, it is not certain it would necessarily lead to nuclear attacks on Russia itself (as opposed to say, Russian Naval forces in the Indian Ocean). ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/53 "2014-09-01T20:00:21Z")
> [@MEBuckner](#): > > I think a _slightly_ more plausible road to World War III might involve something like Russia trying to pull a Crimea in some place like [Ida-Viru County in Estonia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ida-Viru_County)–right on the Russian border, about 125 miles from St. Petersburg; “contains most of Estonia’s energy resources”; and, oh, yeah, has a population that’s over 70% Russian. Get a bunch of “oppressed Russians” forming a “local self-defense militia” (with a lot of uniforms and weapons that they, uh, got from Army-Navy surplus stores, natch) then “declaring independence” and then “asking to be reunified with the Motherland”. This. As much as I despise Putin, Russia’s annexation model for grabbing Crimea was genius. ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/54 "2014-09-01T22:37:28Z")
> [@Boogly](#): > > Is NATO totally neutered without the US as an immediate back up? > Can NATO field enough ground forces in a gradual build up of forces in the Ukraine? > Or can NATO field enough air forces or anti-air forces in a rapid build up in the Ukraine? > > In a battle defensive forces are likely to take less losses in an engagement…is NATO not able to supply anti-air and/or anti-armor weapons in significant numbers and in a timely manner? > > In very broad strokes this could be Putin telling the world that the US (NATOlol) can’t protect everyone…and this could be where NATO shows that they don’t need the US to be effective. > > Again very broad strokes from a person who doesn’t come close to knowing all the details… Against a major country, NATO without America is pretty nearly neutered. The European side found it a struggle to successfully act against **Libya** –and that was mainly just an air campaign! > [@](#): > > France and the United Kingdom flew over 40 percent of the sorties, together destroying more than a third of the overall targets. > > * * * > > However successful, NATO’s intervention in Libya suggested that the organization must strengthen its basic infrastructure if it hopes to increase its role in global security. > > * * * > > Instead of investing in NATO, many member states have depended on the United States to compensate for these deficiencies. In Libya, Washington provided 75 percent of the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance data employed to protect Libyan civilians and enforce the arms embargo. It also contributed 75 percent of the refueling planes used throughout the mission – without which strike aircraft could not have lingered near potential targets in order to respond quickly to hostile forces threatening to attack civilians. > > * * * > > On average, U.S. allies in Europe now spend just 1.6 percent of their GDPs on their militaries, and many spend less than one percent; the United States, in contrast, spends over four percent of its GDP. > **[NATO's Victory in Libya](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/libya/2012-02-02/natos-victory-libya)** > > NATO’s operation in Libya has rightly been praised for saving lives and ending a tyrannical regime, write the U.S. permanent representative to NATO and its supreme allied commander for Europe. But to replicate the success, member states must... [http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/world/africa/nato-sees-flaws-in-air-campaign-against-qaddafi.html?pagewanted=all&\_r=0](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/world/africa/nato-sees-flaws-in-air-campaign-against-qaddafi.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2014, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721/55 "2014-09-02T00:37:14Z")
> [@MEBuckner](#): > > If Putin is really weighing such a possibility, then Putin is genuinely batshit crazy. I would suspect that the only possible American response to a Russian _nuclear attack_ on a NATO ally would be an immediate all-out counterforce strike on Russia–launch our nukes at their nukes and try to take out as many of their warheads as we could before the crazy man over there nukes _us_. It wouldn’t work of course, but I would bet that’s what we’d do, because what the fuck hell else could we do, and then it’s Game Over for Western (and Russian) Civilization. Just suggesting he’d nuke Warsaw or some such place more or less guarantees NATO is, right now, gathering intelligence, running simulations and designing plans to figure out a way to launch either a preemptive or retaliatory strike. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-might-a-ground-battle-between-nato-and-russia-in-ukraine-go/682721.md?page=2)