# How Much Longer Does Ginsburg Have? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 7, 2019, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368 "2019-01-07T19:17:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/21 "2019-01-08T02:31:18Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > OK, my morbid joke: she needs to make out a living will requiring that if she should fall into a coma, she be put on artificial life support if at all possible until January 21, 2021, at which point it may be withdrawn. Unless, against all odds, Trump wins reelection, and Ginsburg isn’t conscious to update her living will to January 2025… ---
**Author:** ![SmartAlecCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SmartAlecCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmartAlecCat)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/22 "2019-01-08T03:36:56Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > I’m sure this is tongue in cheek, but I’d bet anything that the GOP would abandon those “principles” and ram through a nominee on January 19th 2021 if they could. Doesn’t the McConnell rule only apply to the final year of the second term of a President? The end of the first term would be fine. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/23 "2019-01-08T03:52:17Z")
> [@SmartAlecCat](#): > > Doesn’t the McConnell rule only apply to the final year of the second term of a President? The end of the first term would be fine. Let’s not pretend that there was an actual rule here. ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/24 "2019-01-08T04:14:05Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > OK, my morbid joke: she needs to make out a living will requiring that if she should fall into a coma, she be put on artificial life support if at all possible until January 21, 2021, at which point it may be withdrawn. I’d be satisfied with her as a brain in a jar if it kept McConnell’s greasy mitts off that chair. Meanwhile, I’m rooting for Clarence Thomas to do a Harold Washington. ---
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/25 "2019-01-08T06:10:30Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Unless, against all odds, Trump wins reelection, and Ginsburg isn’t conscious to update her living will to January 2025… Well, Trump won against all odds the first time around. I agree that Judge Ginsberg has an uphill battle to make it to 2021 and I really don’t think she’s going to make it and certainly not through another four after that. I’d like to think that Trump would reach across the aisle for a nominee to replace her, but I wouldn’t bet any significant amount of money on it. ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/26 "2019-01-08T06:31:38Z")
I believe we did this not too long ago. According to the SSA, her current life expectancy is 6.8 years. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/27 "2019-01-08T15:54:29Z")
She has a 52 percent chance of dying this year even if you don’t take her health issues into account. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/28 "2019-01-08T16:03:25Z")
She missed a second day of work now: [https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/424287-ginsburg-misses-second-day-in-a-row-at-supreme-court](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/424287-ginsburg-misses-second-day-in-a-row-at-supreme-court) ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/29 "2019-01-08T16:29:35Z")
> [@Projammer](#): > > I’d like to think that Trump would reach across the aisle for a nominee to replace her, but I wouldn’t bet any significant amount of money on it. No chance. There is absolutely 0 chance that they would pass up the opportunity to sew up a 6-3 Republican advantage on the Supreme Court. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/30 "2019-01-08T16:42:29Z")
I don’t know if we should really read too much into her missing two days of work. Would you be going to work a little over two weeks after doctors removed part of your lung? At 85? A little googling shows that recovery from that sort of surgery takes “weeks to months” according to the American Cancer Society, and that’s for an average person, not an 85 year old. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/31 "2019-01-08T16:43:09Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > She missed a second day of work now: [Ginsburg misses second day in a row at Supreme Court | The Hill](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/424287-ginsburg-misses-second-day-in-a-row-at-supreme-court) Pro-tip: Drool is bad for keyboards. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/32 "2019-01-08T16:44:23Z")
Meh, I was just reporting the current news on the topic. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/33 "2019-01-08T17:16:59Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > She missed a second day of work now: [https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/424287-ginsburg-misses-second-day-in-a-row-at-supreme-court](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/424287-ginsburg-misses-second-day-in-a-row-at-supreme-court) So? She’s recovering from surgery she had only 2 weeks ago. It’s more important that her recovery is successful than speedy. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/34 "2019-01-08T17:45:46Z")
I’m pulling it out of my ass but I give her 6 months. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/35 "2019-01-08T20:19:21Z")
There’s a difference between the questions, “How long can Justice Ginsburg fulfill her duties as a Justice,” and “How long before Justice Ginsburg’s seat is vacant.” AIUI, the answer to the first question is, “Now,” so long as she cannot participate in the closed-session conferences with the other Justices. From her home, she may be able to listen to transcripts of oral argument, read the briefs, and draft opinions. I thought though, that participation in those conferences—which are so closed to non-Justices that the most junior Justice is detailed to answer the door to get coffee, papers, and other administrative tasks—was required by Supreme Court custom in order to be able to vote on the cases. And she can’t do that from home—though I’ve no doubt a Skype or WebMeeting solution will be set up so that she can try—nor can she delegate the task to a clerk. As to the second question, consider if the Justice were to fall into a persistent vegetative state. Clearly she couldn’t fulfill the duties of her office. Moreover, with her age and ailments, there’s no possibility of recovery from that condition. Yet, she isn’t dead, and that was traditionally the line. You could keep that beat going on her EKG for a very long time, at least until January 2021. Could she be removed from office, considering past Supreme Court practice? IMHO, a lot of the ‘Justices hanging onto the job way too long’ was due to the position being comparatively lucrative, the Justices’ families being dependent upon the income, and the removal of non-functioning Justices therefore being done with that in mind. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/36 "2019-01-08T21:11:59Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > You could keep that beat going on her EKG for a very long time, at least until January 2021. The hysterical part of that would be that it’s essentially the same sort of BS trick that the Republicans pulled by not agreeing to hold hearings for Merrick Garland. “Oh, you think she’s going to die and you’ll get to put another of yours on the court? Think again! Meet 21st century medicine and life support!” ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/37 "2019-01-08T21:14:41Z")
That would be a rather ignominious end for “Notorious RBG” but if she / her family agree to hook her up to machines to keep her heart beating for the next two / six years to achieve some political aim, yeah, I suppose “hysterical” isn’t the worst word for it. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/38 "2019-01-08T21:51:13Z")
Most people have a living will that states they don’t want to be kept alive just by machines. Her husband died but she does have kids to see her wishes are carried out . ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/39 "2019-01-08T22:14:30Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Most people have a living will that states they don’t want to be kept alive just by machines. Her husband died but she does have kids to see her wishes are carried out . Actually, I bet most people, probably the vast majority, don’t have a living will at all. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/40 "2019-01-08T22:17:34Z")
Modern medicine can keep people alive for a long time in the ‘end stages’ if unlimited money and resources are spent. Look at George HW Bush… I thought he was a goner years ago, but they somehow kept him going for a long time. And you can bet that there are people pulling out the stops to keep RBG going. I wouldn’t take even money that she makes it to the of Trump’s term, but I also wouldn’t discount the possibility too heavily. By the way, even if Trump does get another appointment Democrats shouldn’t freak out. The last three Republican appointments have not turned out so bad. John Roberts appears to be moving into the David Souter role as a moderate who is unpredictable. Justice Gorsuch has been allying himself with Sonia Sotomayor on a number of issues, most specifically around law enforcement and sentencing reform. The jury is still out on Justice Kavanaugh, but I expect him to be reasonable as well, as that’s what his record shows. These are not hard-right ideologues - they are merely constitutionalists, and the constitution constrains Republicans as well as Democrats. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368.md?page=3)