# How Much Longer Does Ginsburg Have? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 7, 2019, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368 "2019-01-07T19:17:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/41 "2019-01-08T22:19:35Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > … By the way, even if Trump does get another appointment Democrats shouldn’t freak out. … They shouldn’t, but they will. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/42 "2019-01-08T23:11:08Z")
> [@bump](#): > > The hysterical part of that would be that it’s essentially the same sort of BS trick that the Republicans pulled by not agreeing to hold hearings for Merrick Garland. > > “Oh, you think she’s going to die and you’ll get to put another of yours on the court? Think again! Meet 21st century medicine and life support!” And it might actually be a political bonus for the Democrats, if they can accuse the Republicans of literally wanting to kill an old woman for political gain. It wouldn’t be meaningfully true, of course, but anyone opposed to Trump will need to get over their squeamishness about that if they’re going to win. Unless she dies relatively suddenly, there’s going to be a lot of dirty politics involved. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/43 "2019-01-09T01:20:18Z")
> [@Flyer](#): > > According to the SSA, her current life expectancy is 6.8 years. She may well fall below that aggregate. While reasonably active thus avoiding some other issues, she’s had three different kinds of cancer. The latest is cancer with poor long term prognosis. Even if she beats the odds on that one the loss of a chunk of her lung makes her potentially more at risk from non-cancer related causes of death. Making it another 6.8 years is probably optimistic. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/44 "2019-01-09T02:00:06Z")
Also, she faces considerably more stress and pressure than the average 86-year old. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/45 "2019-01-09T02:05:37Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Also, she faces considerably more stress and pressure than the average 86-year old. She also probably has better healthcare than the average 85 year old could even dream of getting. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/46 "2019-01-09T02:21:38Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > She also probably has better healthcare than the average 85 year old could even dream of getting. Federal judges, including Supreme Court justices, [fall under](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-does-federal-judges-health-insurance-stack-up/) the Federal Employee Health Benefits plan. It’s not something extra special. She’d also qualify for Medicare. Ginsburg might pay partial premiums for her employer insurance and fall under both with all the associated issues of which plan pays for what. Or she could just be covered by Medicare and any supplemental insurance like is typical for her age group. There’s not some extra special healthcare plan for SCOTUS. She’s an 85 year old that’s still eligible for an employer insurance plan and has a high paying job. It’s a better situation than average but not wildly so. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/47 "2019-01-09T02:58:16Z")
Lol, sure. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/48 "2019-01-09T02:58:57Z")
A GoFundMe account would raise enough money to get her the level of care Queen Elizabeth II or the Pope get in short order. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/49 "2019-01-09T03:04:31Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > I think the WaPo is whistling past the graveyard with that statement. LOL at the idea of giving an 85 year old systemic chemotherapy. It’s her choice though. I believe you misinterpreted the quote contained in the post: > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > The fact that they removed half of her left lung is actually a point in favor of her health, [according to WaPo](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-misses-supreme-court-arguments-for-first-time-as-she-recovers-from-cancer/2019/01/07/f49fa810-1283-11e9-b6ad-9cfd62dbb0a8_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.35f4d531d402): ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/50 "2019-01-09T06:41:27Z")
I don’t think I misinterpreted anything, Karl. The sentence in the cited article from the WaPo is in-artfully crafted, but I read it as saying that: doctors only performed a lobectomy because they didn’t think the cancer had reached anywhere else. If they did think it reached other places, they’d instead also perform a systemic therapy like chemo. I disagree with their premise that doctors would be subjecting an 85 year old to a rigorous course of systemic chemotherapy at all, no matter if the cancer had reached other places or not. I thought the idea was laughable, as—and I’m willing to be corrected by any oncologists in the crowd—the rigors of such a course would likely kill her before any metastasized cancer had a chance to do it instead. So therefore, I don’t think we can infer that the lack of systemic therapy implies that her cancer was only localized to the nodules on her lung, and the WaPo’s attempt to do so is wishful thinking. It would be interesting to know what kind of cancer was in the nodules in the piece of excised lung, as well as whether any further cancer cells were in the ribs that were damaged. From what I’ve read, lung cancer survival depends greatly on the type of cancer cells, with “small cell cancer” being one of the deadliest, along with the depth and number of tumors founds. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/51 "2019-01-09T06:46:00Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Lol, sure. I’m going to agree with this. AIUI, her first bout of pancreatic cancer was only discovered during a ‘regularly scheduled’ whole body CAT scan. Is this a type of diagnostic screen that federal employees can typically expect as part of their compensation? If so, no wonder people love getting federal government jobs. I mean, on paper, the Politburo members got the same care as the rest of the Party too. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/52 "2019-01-09T16:43:51Z")
**Sam Stone** , Kavanaugh’s record shows that he thinks it’s OK for employers to violate employee-protection laws, as long as they also broke the law by hiring them in the first place. And he’s also on record as saying that it should be illegal to investigate the President, which is of course the reason why Trump picked him. That’s not a “reasonable record”. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/53 "2019-01-09T17:46:46Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > **Sam Stone** , Kavanaugh’s record shows that he thinks it’s OK for employers to violate employee-protection laws, as long as they also broke the law by hiring them in the first place. And he’s also on record as saying that it should be illegal to investigate the President, which is of course the reason why Trump picked him. That’s not a “reasonable record”. Further, you could get into Kavanaugh’s views about the (according to him) very broad powers the Executive Branch has when dealing with matters such as wartime detention of enemy combatants or of the Executive’s power to conduct surveillance upon the domestic United States population. This post at ScotusBlog goes into Kavanaugh’s jurisprudence while on the D.C. Circuit in great detail, and I would think would be a much better reason for the left, or civil libertarians, to dislike the appointment of Kavanaugh to the Court. [Judge Kavanaugh’s record in national-security cases - SCOTUSblog](http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/08/judge-kavanaughs-record-in-national-security-cases/) ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/54 "2019-01-09T22:24:09Z")
My best guess from the publicly available material is that she had a 50/50 chance to make it to January 3rd 2021. I think making it to Halloween of 2020 would be long enough to prevent Trump from naming her replacement, assuming he loses. I also think she has almost no chance of making it to January of 2025. None the less, having had surgery is actually a sign in her favor. Most surgeons would hesitate to perform such a major operation on someone her age if they didn’t think she had at least a fair chance of recovering. Also, I agree with Sam Stone about Roberts, but not Gorsuch and Kavanaugh. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/55 "2019-01-09T23:05:35Z")
Kavanaugh is the big unknown, because we haven’t heard a lot from him on the Supreme Court yet. The history of Supreme Court appointments is that they often surprise people. Souter was supposed to be a solid conservative, as was Roberts. And other justices who were supposed to vote reliably left have sometimes joined the other side. There’s something about being on the highest court of the land, setting precedents that can change the country, which might cause otherwise partisan people to actually focus on the law and move more to the center. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/56 "2019-01-10T02:54:08Z")
What does it matter? Look at the Senate map in 2020, and it becomes obvious that the Democrats have practically no chance to take back the Senate. Even if she makes it that long, a hypothetical Dem president won’t be naming her replacement. Cocaine Mitch will just leave it vacant until there is a Republican president. Maybe after she dies 8 justices will just become the new norm. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/57 "2019-01-10T03:01:35Z")
> [@pjacks](#): > > . . . Maybe after she dies 8 justices will just become the new norm. That might work well, so long as Roberts is really the incubating liberal that some people here seem to believe. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/58 "2019-01-10T16:09:06Z")
> [@pjacks](#): > > What does it matter? Look at the Senate map in 2020, and it becomes obvious that the Democrats have practically no chance to take back the Senate. Even if she makes it that long, a hypothetical Dem president won’t be naming her replacement. Cocaine Mitch will just leave it vacant until there is a Republican president. Maybe after she dies 8 justices will just become the new norm. How do you figure that? I see only one likely R-to-D flip (AL), five R-held seats that look like plausible D pickups (CO, AZ, ME, IA, NC), and _seventeen_ other states where Rs are playing defense; while none of the others look particularly likely to flip right now, it’s a numbers game where the odds of _something_ weird happening _somewhere_ are fairly high when one party is defending that many seats. Basically, it’s the reverse of the 2018 Senate map, and with a Democratic vice-president, the Ds would only need to net three seats to have a majority. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/59 "2019-01-10T16:34:48Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > How do you figure that? I see only one likely R-to-D flip (AL), five R-held seats that look like plausible D pickups (CO, AZ, ME, IA, NC), and _seventeen_ other states where Rs are playing defense; while none of the others look particularly likely to flip right now, it’s a numbers game where the odds of _something_ weird happening _somewhere_ are fairly high when one party is defending that many seats. Basically, it’s the reverse of the 2018 Senate map, and with a Democratic vice-president, the Ds would only need to net three seats to have a majority. [The Senate Will Be Competitive Again In 2020, But Republicans Are Favored](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senate-will-be-competitive-again-in-2020-but-republicans-are-favored/) > [@](#): > > There will be at least 34 seats up for election in 2020,2 22 of which are currently held by Republicans and 12 of which are currently held by Democrats — a stark contrast to the 2018 cycle, when Democrats were on the hot seat. That said, to make the kind of gains they need, Democrats will have to overcome the partisan lean of some fairly red states, plus successfully defend two seats of their own in Republican territory. If you look at the chart, 19 of those 34 seats up for election are +9R or more. 4 of the seats the Dems are defending are competitive ranging from +1.7R to +2.1D ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/60 "2019-01-10T17:31:51Z")
Though “practically no chance” overstates it, you can see how difficult it will be. If we give the Dems a +8 advantage, which is about what the 2018 “blue wave” was and where the generic congressional polling is at, and apply it to that 538 list then the Dems would pick up 4 seats but still lose Alabama. That would tie the Senate and make the VP’s schedule a lot busier. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368.md?page=4)