# How Much Longer Does Ginsburg Have? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 7, 2019, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368 "2019-01-07T19:17:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2019, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/81 "2019-01-11T17:46:42Z")
> [@Arcite](#): > > …1) begins falling, or 2) begins experiencing one medical problem after another in quick succession, that is usually a sign of the beginning of the end. . What “quick succession”? The previous time she had a serious medical issue was 5 years ago when she had a coronary stent put in. And the cancer in her lung was discovered _because_ she fractured a rib, otherwise it may not have been discovered for a while. 2 medical procedures in 5 years + cracked ribs is hardly a sign of imminent death. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2019, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/82 "2019-01-11T19:17:11Z")
One thing that has yet to be mentioned (AFAIK) is that lung cancer in a woman without a significant smoking history is not the death sentence it used to be (assuming that RBG’s primary is in the lung). The most common lung cancer nowadays is what’s called adenocarcinoma and, in about 70 to 80 percent of non-smoking women who get it, relatively benign ‘chemotherapy’ effects a complete remission if not cure. I am referring to treatments such as described (in some detail) [here](https://www.verywellhealth.com/lung-cancer-with-an-egfr-mutation-4097338). ---
**Author:** ![postpic200](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/54ee81/32.png) [@postpic200](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/postpic200)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2019, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/83 "2019-01-12T14:23:18Z")
First let me say I hope she recovers. How much time, I think she was holding out for a Democrat president before she retires, with Trump in the office, she’ll try to hold out until the election with the hopes the Democrats will take over the WH. That said even at her age and with her health problems, she could stay on the bench for years. In my family the women generally get into their very late 90’s or early 100’s so without knowing her family history we could say 0 to 15 years. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2019, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/84 "2019-01-12T16:35:29Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > There’s a difference between the questions, “How long can Justice Ginsburg fulfill her duties as a Justice,” and “How long before Justice Ginsburg’s seat is vacant.” AIUI, the answer to the first question is, “Now,” so long as she cannot participate in the closed-session conferences with the other Justices. From her home, she may be able to listen to transcripts of oral argument, read the briefs, and draft opinions. It’s not the first time a Supreme Court Justice has worked from home. [**Chief** Justice Rehnquist](https://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/27/politics/chief-justice-wont-return-to-the-court-this-year.html?module=inline) missed a bunch during cancer treatment in 2004 and 2005. ---
**Author:** ![LAZombie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/b38774/32.png) [@LAZombie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LAZombie)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2019, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/85 "2019-01-13T16:15:30Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > It’s not the first time a Supreme Court Justice has worked from home. [**Chief** Justice Rehnquist](https://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/27/politics/chief-justice-wont-return-to-the-court-this-year.html?module=inline) missed a bunch during cancer treatment in 2004 and 2005. Doesn’t mean it is right. Is it fair to the parties who appear in front of the Supreme Court that Ginsberg isn’t there to hear their oral arguments or does she already have her mind made up anyway? ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2019, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/86 "2019-01-13T16:34:26Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > It’s not the first time a Supreme Court Justice has worked from home. [**Chief** Justice Rehnquist](https://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/27/politics/chief-justice-wont-return-to-the-court-this-year.html?module=inline) missed a bunch during cancer treatment in 2004 and 2005. And croaked pretty quickly after… ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2019, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/87 "2019-01-13T18:53:32Z")
> [@LAZombie](#): > > Doesn’t mean it is right. > > Is it fair to the parties who appear in front of the Supreme Court that Ginsberg isn’t there to hear their oral arguments or does she already have her mind made up anyway? You mean, it’s not fair that the lawyer’s piercing blue eyes are not part of the decision when RBG merely reads their oral arguments at home? ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Erudite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Ancient\_Erudite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Erudite)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/88 "2019-01-14T21:19:06Z")
> [@postpic200](#): > > First let me say I hope she recovers. > > How much time, I think she was holding out for a Democrat president before she retires, with Trump in the office, she’ll try to hold out until the election with the hopes the Democrats will take over the WH. > > That said even at her age and with her health problems, she could stay on the bench for years. In my family the women generally get into their very late 90’s or early 100’s so without knowing her family history we could say 0 to 15 years. 15 years would be a long shot. If I had to guess I’d say 1-5 years. Would she be better off retiring or dying in office? Public service is a calling and if a doctor gives a patient just a few weeks or month to live the person in service should step down. The Supreme Court has become too politized, and with RGB passing, the waters will reach a boil, which is why I think she should step down if she knows she won’t live to 2020. Older people only have a certain amount of comebacks in them, and the older you are, the less chance you have of beating an illness. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/89 "2019-01-14T22:08:32Z")
> [@LAZombie](#): > > Is it fair to the parties who appear in front of the Supreme Court that Ginsberg isn’t there to hear their oral arguments or does she already have her mind made up anyway? (post shortened) The oral arguments before the Supremes is one of the final stages of reaching a decision. All Supremes have access to the original trial transcript, any appellate court decisions, amicus curiae (friend of the court) briefs, research done by the Supremes’s clerks, as well as having had numerous closed door discussions with the other Supremes. Questions asked during the limited time allowed for oral arguments may simply be made to satisfy a justice’s curiosity, or may be instrumental in making a final decision. How much the Supremes actually rely on the oral arguments to make their decision is one of the great mysteries of life. They ain’t talkin’ but there are plenty of pundits who will gladly tell everyone what they think the Supremes are thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/90 "2019-01-18T05:04:51Z")
[Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg cancels 2 upcoming events](https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/16/politics/ruth-bader-ginsburg/index.html) Not necessarily surprising considering she’s still recovering from major surgery and her age. But still another data point. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/91 "2019-01-18T10:29:32Z")
> [@LAZombie](#): > > Is it fair to the parties who appear in front of the Supreme Court that Ginsberg isn’t there to hear their oral arguments Surely all she has to do in such cases is to recuse herself and not vote? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/92 "2019-01-18T13:56:20Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Surely all she has to do in such cases is to recuse herself and not vote? She doesn’t have to recuse herself. She is supposedly reading transcripts of oral arguments from home, and no doubt her clerks are doing the same research they always would. She’s gonna hang onto her seat until [list=A][li]Trump is no longer President, or [\*]she dies.[/list]Whichever comes first.[/li] As long as she doesn’t appear in public, it becomes easier to maintain that she is still a functioning member of the Court, and doesn’t need to be removed and replaced. The other Justices are likely to play along - they don’t want to embarrass a colleague. If some abortion case or the equivalent comes before the Court, everybody knows how she will rule. Her senior clerk will write the opinion, she will review and sign it, and it ultimately won’t make that much difference. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Erudite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Ancient\_Erudite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Erudite)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/93 "2019-01-18T21:12:04Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Please let the poor women spend her last days in peace. She has earned it. > Start worrying about Breyer’s ticker. He’s 80. Ginsberg is 85 with three cancers treatments in different areas. If RBG can’t serve to her standards, should retire. Often the worst thing for an older and sick person to do is to over commit to work shortly after surgery. In this case, they took out a piece of her lung ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/94 "2019-01-18T21:13:17Z")
I’m sure she appreciates the advice. ---
**Author:** ![LAZombie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/b38774/32.png) [@LAZombie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LAZombie)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/95 "2019-01-18T21:55:33Z")
The latest rumor is that Ginsburg has contracted pneumonia. No major news outlet has confirmed it, but it wouldn’t be a surprise either. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2019, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/96 "2019-01-18T23:04:38Z")
This website claims that her pneumonia will cause her to retire before the end of this month. (warning, super right-wing website) > **[Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's Office Announces She Has Pancreatic Cancer. US...](https://www.smobserved.com/story/2019/01/15/politics/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-will-retire-from-the-us-supreme-court-in-january-2019/3658.html)** > > Update: Stricken with Pancreatic cancer, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg seems set to retire from the Supreme Court. Editor's Note; We first posted this story in September, 2018. Sadly we were correct, as Justice Ginsburg underwent surgery on December... ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2019, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/97 "2019-01-19T07:12:30Z")
> [@LAZombie](#): > > Is it fair to the parties who appear in front of the Supreme Court that Ginsberg isn’t there to hear their oral arguments or does she already have her mind made up anyway? Justice Thomas famously never asks questions questions during oral arguments. He could do the same exact job he’s doing now by reading everything after the fact since he’s not going to contribute. I don’t think that’s any more or less “unfair” just because he’s warming a chair. ---
**Author:** ![Napier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ce73a5/32.png) [@Napier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Napier)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2019, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/98 "2019-01-21T15:21:40Z")
I’m optimistic. As Flyer points out she has a statistically average 6.8 years left. However, that average includes very sick 85 year olds. Setting aside the cancer, she is unusually healthy for an 85 year old. Plus, as CarnalK points out, she has unusually good access to health care. She also has an unusually big motive to stay healthy and survive, which I think is known to tend to extend life. So, what about the cancer? She is currently not known to have any. Obviously she is in some kind of higher risk category, but she appeared to have had slow cancers. It’s easy to anticipate that her overall cancer story may have a dim outlook for 10, 20 or 30 years from now. But it’s not all that common for somebody who is being closely studied for cancer and not known to currently have it to die from it in two years, or even six. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2019, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/99 "2019-01-21T16:14:53Z")
Fox got antsy: [https://thehill.com/homenews/media/426276-fox-friends-accidentally-shows-graphic-saying-ruth-bader-ginsburg-is-dead](https://thehill.com/homenews/media/426276-fox-friends-accidentally-shows-graphic-saying-ruth-bader-ginsburg-is-dead) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2019, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368/100 "2019-01-21T16:41:11Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Fox got antsy: [https://thehill.com/homenews/media/426276-fox-friends-accidentally-shows-graphic-saying-ruth-bader-ginsburg-is-dead](https://thehill.com/homenews/media/426276-fox-friends-accidentally-shows-graphic-saying-ruth-bader-ginsburg-is-dead) Obviously any news org has prepackaged obits of prominent people that are basically ready to go at a moment’s notice. Fox follows this practice as well. It’s probably easy to goof up and put it on the air momentarily. It’s more amusing when Fox does it with someone like Ginsburg because it comes across as wishful thinking. 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-does-ginsburg-have/827368.md?page=6)