# How much longer will we be in Iraq, Mr. President? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 15, 2004, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956 "2004-12-15T12:15:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/41 "2004-12-15T18:32:08Z")
**Mr. Moto** , I knew about the werewolves but didn’t really count them as insurgents, as they were mainly a uniformed military unit that by-and-large surrendered with the rest of the army after the fall of Berlin. The Iraqi insurgency, on the other hand, didn’t even get started till after the fall of Baghdad, and unlike the werewolves, seemed to have gained stength rather then lost it during the intervening period. ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/42 "2004-12-15T18:34:30Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Other than the part about red states/blue states (which is a media construct, not reality), I pretty much agree with you. And the sad fact is that Americans seem to have become more or less insensitive to the current death rate in Iraq-- both US servicemen and Iraqi civiliians. And the oil ain’t gonna run out for a long time. Which means that we’d have to see a dramatic increase in US servicemen deaths for there to be a political shift in the electorate. Or the media could (to employ the vernacular) grow some. Which would be a happier state of affairs all around. btw, quite prepared to accept your assurance on the red/blue construct. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/43 "2004-12-15T18:44:11Z")
> [@Maeglin](#): > > Spare us the “we don’t owe” twaddle. We _do_ owe. We owe big. Not to the tin horn tools we keep in power with our manifold generosity, but to the nations that this “aid” has ravaged, nations that certainly would have been better off if we had never been so “generous” in the first place. > > So yes, we are very, very stingy. The only problem here is that it’s notoriously difficult to give aid to countries ruled by violent dictatorships or engaged in civil war, and those are the countries that need it the most. If any given country’s leadership is amenable to receiving actual aid to their peoples, chances are the UN is already giving them sufficient aid. The only other two options are to either implement the aid on a “sanctions” basis, demanding rights to distribute the aid as we see fit or adding conditions to the aid, or invade the country to install a more friendly government or to ease the humanitarian situation ourselves. No matter the outcome, the U.S. gets no respect from the world and is seen either as “stingy” or “imperialistic”. I’d rather no aid go to countries that can’t get their political acts together than to give just to pat ourselves on the back to try to one-up other countries. That, or only give aid where we will be sure it will not be used to prop up a dictatorship. For instance, directly distribute food or directly build infrastructure (both of which, of course, _indirectly_ help dictatorships by letting them spend money elsewhere, but let’s ignore that for now.) ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/44 "2004-12-15T19:00:15Z")
Would it be useful to compare the situation in Iraq with the communist insurgency in Malaya? That took 9 years to quell. ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/45 "2004-12-15T19:02:30Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > The only problem here is that it’s notoriously difficult to give aid to countries ruled by violent dictatorships or engaged in civil war, and those are the countries that need it the most. We _have_ given ludicrous sums to countries ruled by violent dictatorships over and over again. The set of countries with violent dictatorships and brutal civil wars is a mere subset of the set of worthy recipients of US foreign aid. > [@](#): > > If any given country’s leadership is amenable to receiving actual aid to their peoples, chances are the UN is already giving them sufficient aid. Chances are? What does that mean? Perhaps you can demonstrate that this distributional assumption is borne out in the real world. > [@](#): > > The only other two options are to either implement the aid on a “sanctions” basis, demanding rights to distribute the aid as we see fit or adding conditions to the aid, or invade the country to install a more friendly government or to ease the humanitarian situation ourselves. No matter the outcome, the U.S. gets no respect from the world and is seen either as “stingy” or “imperialistic”. This is a false dilemma. There are many possibilities for foreign aid that are neither “stingy” nor “imperialistic”. > [@](#): > > I’d rather no aid go to countries that can’t get their political acts together than to give just to pat ourselves on the back to try to one-up other countries. I agree with your conclusion, not with your argument. I would prefer that the US does not pervert incentives for growth and national improvement by subsidizing the worst regimes on the planet. This has nothing to do with one-upmanship. I just dislike the fact that American citizens paid for Mobutu’s Swiss chalets and his death squads. > [@](#): > > That, or only give aid where we will be sure it will not be used to prop up a dictatorship. Naturally, this goes against twenty-five years of received wisdom. Alas. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/46 "2004-12-15T19:19:33Z")
> [@Malodorous](#): > > The Iraqi insurgency, on the other hand, didn’t even get started till after the fall of Baghdad, and unlike the werewolves, seemed to have gained stength rather then lost it during the intervening period. [A student of the Iraqi insurgency at Harvard lists and refutes the key myths about it:](http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2004/12/15/why_elections_wont_quell_iraq_resistance/) > [@](#): > > \*\*The resistance only began after months of America “botching” the occupation.\*\*The bulk of those involved decided within days of the end of the “ground war” on April 9 that they would fight > > **The resistance in Iraq is made up of Ba’athi dead enders, regime loyalists, common criminals, Islamic extremists, and driven by a vast number of foreigners with contacts to Al Qaeda.** I met no one who had recently been released from prison or who knew of any connections with Al Qaeda, and I only met one foreign fighter…The original impetus for almost all of the individuals I spoke to was a nationalistic one – the desire to defend their country from occupation, not to defend Saddam Hussein or his regime. > > **The Iraqi resistance is a monolithic, tightly organized structure with a leadership that can be obliterated and a fixed number of fighters who can be eliminated.** The rise in attacks over the past year has been attributed as reactions to the transfer of power to the Allawi government in July 2004, or to the elections in January. However, more likely, it is simply an indication of improved funding, coordination, and resources. > > **Nationwide elections will provide Iraq with a legitimate government, and the violence in the country will subside significantly**. There is no government that can emerge from the current process that will be viewed as legitimate in their eyes. The resistance will continue until American influence has disappeared from Iraq’s political system. Fuller discussion a click away. You can certainly say that anecdotes aren’t data, but there isn’t any credible data to the contrary, either, just assertions of faith - and Bingham was actually there and actually talked with a number of actual insurgents. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/47 "2004-12-15T21:46:55Z")
> [@Wrath](#): > > And then of course all the nation building that we’ve footed the bill for over the decades in Germany, Turkey, Iraq, et al. We are generous because we are “nation building” in Iraq?!?! This is almost as ridiculous as the letter-to-editor I read in the Wall Street Journal a few months ago commenting on the Iraqi Olympic athlete who said (in response to Bush’s comments) that if he wasn’t in the Olympics, he’d probably be part of the insurgency. The letter was sort of along the lines of “How dare they be so ungrateful!” The circular logic in this is just so mind-boggling that I am not sure what to say. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/48 "2004-12-15T22:22:16Z")
> [@Wrath](#): > > And then of course all the nation building that we’ve footed the bill for over the decades in Germany, Turkey, Iraq, et al. I see that **jshore** has already commented on the above, but I’d like to be a tad more direct than he was. Perhaps if you hadn’t destroyed the godammed place through an illegal, inmoral and murderous invasion to begin with, you wouldn’t have to be fuckin’ nation-building where you’re clearly despised – and for very good reason. Must be something to do with that American “moral superiority” I keep hearing about and I’ve yet to see. ---
**Author:** ![Ale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f19dbf/32.png) [@Ale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ale)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/49 "2004-12-15T22:28:55Z")
> [@Malodorous](#): > > …Most current Iraqi political parties, including the Al-Sistani endorsed shitte party which will probably win most of the posts in the elections, are running on an anti-US platform. That said, I’m fairly skeptical that whoever wins will send us packing, as they will find themselves dependent on American troops for protection and american money for reconstruction. If they want to stay in power, they will almost certainly resort to only symbolic anti-american gestures. And that would be different from Saddam in which way? ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/50 "2004-12-15T22:39:02Z")
> [@Ale](#): > > And that would be different from Saddam in which way? They wouldn’t start repressing and killing large sections of the countries population in order to keep the status quo, no matter how deformed it would turn out to be. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/51 "2004-12-15T22:48:11Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > [A student of the Iraqi insurgency at Harvard lists and refutes the key myths about it:](http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2004/12/15/why_elections_wont_quell_iraq_resistance/) > > Fuller discussion a click away. You can certainly say that anecdotes aren’t data, but there isn’t any credible data to the contrary, either, just assertions of faith - and Bingham was actually there and actually talked with a number of actual insurgents. This is has to be in comparison to a strengthening Iraqi state though. Compare and then see which side is doing badly. ---
**Author:** ![Ale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f19dbf/32.png) [@Ale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ale)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/52 "2004-12-15T22:48:39Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > They wouldn’t start repressing and killing large sections of the countries population in order to keep the status quo, no matter how deformed it would turn out to be. That´s yet to be seen, besides I´ve seen quite a bit of killing going around there lately. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/53 "2004-12-15T22:51:40Z")
> [@Ale](#): > > That´s yet to be seen, besides I´ve seen quite a bit of killing going around there lately. yes, but no massacres en masse,alot of pinpoint (don’t pun me) action against a protracted insurgency, not killing for the sake of killing or to instill fear into the populace, which is an aim the Insurgents actually want. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2004, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/54 "2004-12-15T23:47:27Z")
Gosh, there are so many who know what the insurgents think, know what their strategy is, their goals, all of that. Its a wonder we have any trouble with them, seeing as we have so many experts. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2004, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/55 "2004-12-16T00:45:18Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > This is has to be in comparison to a strengthening Iraqi state though. Compare and then see which side is doing badly. Go right ahead, then. How strong do \*you \* think the “Iraqi state” is, and how strong do you think it will be after 1/30/05? > [@Ryan Liam](#): > > They wouldn’t start repressing and killing large sections of the countries population in order to keep the status quo, no matter how deformed it would turn out to be. On what do you base that assessment? That they wouldn’t be Saddamists? Got news for ya, kiddo, that’s SOP for just about \*any \* dictatorship in a diverse country, including (perhaps especially including) the ones we’ve given the weapons to over the years. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2004, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/56 "2004-12-16T02:49:44Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > They wouldn’t start repressing and killing large sections of the countries population in order to keep the status quo, no matter how deformed it would turn out to be. That’s just what the US is doing right\* now\*. What makes so sure a US puppet – which is _exactly_ what Saddam was when he did most of his butchering – would be any different? ---
**Author:** ![Wake\_up\_call](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/dec6dc/32.png) [@Wake\_up\_call](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wake_up_call)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2004, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/57 "2004-12-16T06:07:17Z")
> [@Wrath](#): > > Sorry if I can’t customize a graph for you or find one in a timely manner. Well, here are a couple of them: [This chart](http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_eco_aid_don_cap) shows the US being at the bottom of the top 20 economic donor countries on per capita basis. [This chart](http://www.its.caltech.edu/~kai/foreignaid.html) not only shows the US being at the bottom, but also shows the US contribution was cut in half from 1992 to year 2000. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2004, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/58 "2004-12-16T06:25:30Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > … US puppet – which is _exactly_ what Saddam was when he did most of his butchering… With all due, _companero_… No question, the US supported him in a lot of ways, as a paricularly loathesome excercise in _realpolitik_…but _“puppet”_? He was seen as a useful counterbalance to Iran and as providing the sort of dependable stability that tyrants are good at. He didn’t do the butchering on _our_ behalf, he did it for his own benefit. We made the obligatory “tut-tut” noises, and he ignored them as we knew he would. He didn’t slaughter Kurds and Shia for our interests, we barely knew who they were, much less wanted them dead. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2004, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/59 "2004-12-16T13:16:00Z")
No problem with the distinction you’re making, **'luc**. I was simply making the historical point that having a US-backed government in place is not a _de facto_ guarantee of the safety of its citizens. It is, however, a guarantee that the US’s _interests_ will be protected. No more, no less. ---
**Author:** ![Wrath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ee7513/32.png) [@Wrath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrath)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2004, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956/60 "2004-12-16T13:49:02Z")
Generosity, **Wake** was never intended to mean charity alone. Consider the money we lend to other countries that never gets paid back. Consider the military contributions. Consider the naiton-building efforts of Germany, Turkey, et al. When I say we’re generous, I mean in all things. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-longer-will-we-be-in-iraq-mr-president/279956.md?page=4)