# How much luck would an average layman have swinging at MLB pitcher's pitches? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** baseball-mlb\ **Created:** [May 1, 2025, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774 "2025-05-01T22:33:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/41 "2025-05-03T14:16:40Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > No one is saying that Ryan routinely threw his fastball at 108. We know he did it once in 1974. We don’t KNOW he threw 108 without a measurement that says 108, which we do not have. The 108 comes from a number of assumptions about how to adjust the measurements of the time. I am confident he threw fastballs at least as high as 103-104. He may have thrown as hard as Chapman has gotten up to, though Chapman has the advantage of being a taller man with longer arms. Certainly Ryan threw as hard, on a regular basis, as anyone who has ever lived; he is likely the top end of how hard a human being can consistently throw a baseball. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/42 "2025-05-03T15:26:58Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > We don’t KNOW he threw 108 without a measurement that says 108, which we do not have. The 108 comes from a number of assumptions about how to adjust the measurements of the time. I’ve read about them using math and science to compute the speed. That’s a little more than assumptions. I don’t have the math or science ability to refute the conclusion. If you do then share it. What we do know is more than 20 years later and many thousands of pitches he was reaching the upper 90s right before he blew out his arm the final time. And it was 10 or so years after he first tore his UCL and didn’t get surgery. Looking at the injury rate of pitchers now he looks like Superman. Or maybe it’s the emphasis on spin rate or pushing arms beyond their natural abilities. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/43 "2025-05-03T15:37:31Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > Looking at the injury rate of pitchers now he looks like Superman. Or maybe it’s the emphasis on spin rate or pushing arms beyond their natural abilities. I think it’s just that some guys are healthier and more durable than others. Ryan had a very, very good motion for avoiding injury, of course, but there’s always gonna be someone on the extreme end of any bell curve. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/44 "2025-05-03T21:05:09Z")
A lot of experienced athletes can draw on years of experience. They would struggle to explain or measure the “knowledge” that is intrinsic to their “muscle memory”. Since their memory is based on lived experience, and most of the time the batter could view the pitcher, changing the release view or any other aspect will lower the batter’s success. You could easily climb down a flight of stairs, looking straight ahead, while carrying something. But if you had to think about every muscle that was engaging to do that, in sequence, it would be dramatically tougher. ---
**Author:** ![Jaycat.again](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jaycat.again/32/11525_2.png) [@Jaycat.again](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jaycat.again)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/45 "2025-05-03T22:05:02Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > Ryan … once threw 235 pitches in one game. Is that true? Or a typo? ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/46 "2025-05-03T22:10:40Z")
> [@Jaycat.again](#): > > Is that true? Or a typo? > **[The story behind Nolan Ryan's 235-pitch start](https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-ryan-threw-235-pitches-in-one-game)** > > It was 45 years ago Friday that Nolan Ryan pitched a game that, when compared to today’s baseball, feels more like it was from 100 years ago. > Taking the mound for the Angels on June 14, 1974, the future Hall of Famer struck out 19 Red Sox hitters... Things were different back then, and Ryan was doubly so. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/47 "2025-05-03T22:13:07Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If Kournikova is playing a fellow professional, that pro is not only quick as hell, but could tell from her setup and motion which side the serve would likely come at them. Or by studying their opponent’s tongue. [https://www.cbc.ca/radio/undertheinfluence/andre-agassi-beat-boris-becker-by-studying-his-tongue-1.7446007](https://www.cbc.ca/radio/undertheinfluence/andre-agassi-beat-boris-becker-by-studying-his-tongue-1.7446007) ---
**Author:** ![Jaycat.again](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jaycat.again/32/11525_2.png) [@Jaycat.again](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jaycat.again)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/48 "2025-05-03T22:14:20Z")
> [@Telemark](#): > > Things were different back then, and Ryan was doubly so. Amazing. I wonder how many pitches Loo-eee threw that day. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/49 "2025-05-03T22:16:55Z")
> [@Jaycat.again](#): > > Amazing. I wonder how many pitches Loo-eee threw that day. Estimate is 220. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/50 "2025-05-03T22:25:57Z")
If Ryan’s 100.9 MPH pitch was the fastest one he was ever recorded as throwing, then that probably means that everything went right for him for that pitch, including factors out of his control. In particular, I’d expect that he had a significant tailwind for that pitch, which would result in a lower than usual drop in velocity from the mound to the plate. Still damned impressive, no matter how you slice it, especially for someone with as much staying power as him. ---
**Author:** ![songsoflovetrouble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@songsoflovetrouble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/songsoflovetrouble)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/51 "2025-05-03T22:33:20Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > In an era when most pitchers were topping out at 95, 96 MPH, we’re supposed to believe that hitters were squaring up 108 MPH fastballs? Ryan gave up 321 homers over his career. Yes, you’re supposed to believe that both extremely good pitchers and extremely good hitters existed at any given time at the highest level of a major professional sport, and sometimes one had success, and sometimes the other did. Most pitchers who rely on triple-digit speed have control problems. You can either throw the ball at 108mph all over the place and walk people (something which Ryan did 2975 times, an MLB record for pitchers) or back off and lose some speed in exchange for more reliably hitting the strike zone, at the risk that a hitter who has correctly predicted this will sit on the pitch and hit the down-the-middle 91mph ball for a home run (which, as noted, Ryan also suffered a lot of). Not a big mystery. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2025, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/52 "2025-05-03T23:29:56Z")
The logical conclusion is that the measuring equipment 50 years ago was suspect and unreliable. None of the players at the time were like ‘holy shit, this guy’s fastball is 10 MPH faster than the other pitchers.’ I’m not buying the hagiography any time soon. ---
**Author:** ![Mark\_Finn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/34f0e0/32.png) [@Mark\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mark_Finn)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2025, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/53 "2025-05-04T00:20:24Z")
Tom Cheney threw 228 pitches in a 16 inning complete game in 1962 with the w Washington Senators. He also struck out 21 batters. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2025, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/54 "2025-05-04T00:30:37Z")
Something to remember. Robin Ventura is the only player to get 6 hits off Ryan in one game. Even better, it was in one inning. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2025, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/55 "2025-05-04T00:35:42Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > The logical conclusion is that the measuring equipment 50 years ago was suspect and unreliable. None of the players at the time were like ‘holy shit, this guy’s fastball is 10 MPH faster than the other pitchers.’ First of all that actually WAS what people said about Ryan. He was legendarily fast. MLB hitters found him scary. More importantly though, no one’s saying he always threw that hard. He certainly did not and the 321 homers he gave up (a low total given his innings pitched) didn’t come off his best pitches. Ryan specifically lost a lot of effectiveness when pitching out of the stretch. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2025, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/56 "2025-05-04T00:56:20Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > He certainly did not and the 321 homers he gave up (a low total given his innings pitched) didn’t come off his best pitches. Ryan averaged 16.77 innings per HR. Chapman averaged 14.82. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2025, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/57 "2025-05-04T01:07:00Z")
I run into this bullshit all the time in sports. Nobody jumped higher than Jordan, nobody hit the ball harder than Ruth, blah blah blah. And yet, when any record is measured, it’s always, without fail, incremental. Unless performance enhancing drugs are involved, a la the women’s 100m, 400m and 800m world records. And, come to think of it, baseball. Barry Bonds, for example. So if Ryan was throwing 105 year in and year out, guess what? He was probably roided up too. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2025, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/58 "2025-05-04T01:24:17Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The real added problem with returning Anna Kournikova’s serve isn’t the speed - by the time it gets to you it’s definitely much slower than an MLB fastball. The unique problem is that **it could be on either side of you.** I think someone mentioned that upthread in post 29… 😉 Watching those guys flail at, and have a hard time getting a racket on the pro’s serve? Not gonna say it is as hard or harder than hitting a baseball. But from the average layman’s perspective, it might as well be. We were watching a HS girls’ softball game the other day. DAMN, those pitches came in in a hurry. With the closer mound and underhand pitch, I wonder if it is harder to hit a pro baseball or pro fastpitch softball pitching? (I have no experience/opinion. Being a Chicago boy, I only play REAL softball - 16"! ;)) ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2025, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/59 "2025-05-04T01:56:47Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > I run into this bullshit all the time in sports. Nobody jumped higher than Jordan, nobody hit the ball harder than Ruth, blah blah blah. Ruth famously used a very heavy bat, even for its time. Someone documented all of his tape measure shots very meticulously and objectively (as possible given the data), and they were soaring quite a bit farther than today’s bombs. The author theorized that the heavier bat indeed imparted more velocity to the ball, but that even the Babe (despite his image of being overweight he was immensely strong) wouldn’t be able to catch up to today’s pitches with such a heavy implement. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2025, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774/60 "2025-05-04T02:00:17Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > We were watching a HS girls’ softball game the other day. DAMN, those pitches came in in a hurry. With the closer mound and underhand pitch, I wonder if it is harder to hit a pro baseball or pro fastpitch softball pitching? HS/college/pro softball pitching distance is 43 ft. Speeds up to 72-78 mph from the pros. The travel time of both MLB and softball pitches are roughly in the same range with softball having a bit of an advantage at the higher velocities. 60.5 vs 43 ft=71% 72-78mph/102mph=70.6-76.4% [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-luck-would-an-average-layman-have-swinging-at-mlb-pitchers-pitches/1017774.md?page=4)