How much luck would an average layman have swinging at MLB pitcher's pitches?

We don’t KNOW he threw 108 without a measurement that says 108, which we do not have. The 108 comes from a number of assumptions about how to adjust the measurements of the time.

I am confident he threw fastballs at least as high as 103-104. He may have thrown as hard as Chapman has gotten up to, though Chapman has the advantage of being a taller man with longer arms. Certainly Ryan threw as hard, on a regular basis, as anyone who has ever lived; he is likely the top end of how hard a human being can consistently throw a baseball.

I’ve read about them using math and science to compute the speed. That’s a little more than assumptions. I don’t have the math or science ability to refute the conclusion. If you do then share it.

What we do know is more than 20 years later and many thousands of pitches he was reaching the upper 90s right before he blew out his arm the final time. And it was 10 or so years after he first tore his UCL and didn’t get surgery. Looking at the injury rate of pitchers now he looks like Superman. Or maybe it’s the emphasis on spin rate or pushing arms beyond their natural abilities.

I think it’s just that some guys are healthier and more durable than others. Ryan had a very, very good motion for avoiding injury, of course, but there’s always gonna be someone on the extreme end of any bell curve.

A lot of experienced athletes can draw on years of experience. They would struggle to explain or measure the “knowledge” that is intrinsic to their “muscle memory”. Since their memory is based on lived experience, and most of the time the batter could view the pitcher, changing the release view or any other aspect will lower the batter’s success.

You could easily climb down a flight of stairs, looking straight ahead, while carrying something. But if you had to think about every muscle that was engaging to do that, in sequence, it would be dramatically tougher.

Is that true? Or a typo?

Things were different back then, and Ryan was doubly so.

Or by studying their opponent’s tongue.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/undertheinfluence/andre-agassi-beat-boris-becker-by-studying-his-tongue-1.7446007

Amazing. I wonder how many pitches Loo-eee threw that day.

Estimate is 220.

If Ryan’s 100.9 MPH pitch was the fastest one he was ever recorded as throwing, then that probably means that everything went right for him for that pitch, including factors out of his control. In particular, I’d expect that he had a significant tailwind for that pitch, which would result in a lower than usual drop in velocity from the mound to the plate.

Still damned impressive, no matter how you slice it, especially for someone with as much staying power as him.

Yes, you’re supposed to believe that both extremely good pitchers and extremely good hitters existed at any given time at the highest level of a major professional sport, and sometimes one had success, and sometimes the other did.

Most pitchers who rely on triple-digit speed have control problems. You can either throw the ball at 108mph all over the place and walk people (something which Ryan did 2975 times, an MLB record for pitchers) or back off and lose some speed in exchange for more reliably hitting the strike zone, at the risk that a hitter who has correctly predicted this will sit on the pitch and hit the down-the-middle 91mph ball for a home run (which, as noted, Ryan also suffered a lot of). Not a big mystery.

The logical conclusion is that the measuring equipment 50 years ago was suspect and unreliable. None of the players at the time were like ‘holy shit, this guy’s fastball is 10 MPH faster than the other pitchers.’

I’m not buying the hagiography any time soon.

Tom Cheney threw 228 pitches in a 16 inning complete game in 1962 with the w
Washington Senators. He also struck out 21 batters.

Something to remember. Robin Ventura is the only player to get 6 hits off Ryan in one game. Even better, it was in one inning.

First of all that actually WAS what people said about Ryan. He was legendarily fast. MLB hitters found him scary.

More importantly though, no one’s saying he always threw that hard. He certainly did not and the 321 homers he gave up (a low total given his innings pitched) didn’t come off his best pitches. Ryan specifically lost a lot of effectiveness when pitching out of the stretch.

Ryan averaged 16.77 innings per HR. Chapman averaged 14.82.

I run into this bullshit all the time in sports. Nobody jumped higher than Jordan, nobody hit the ball harder than Ruth, blah blah blah.

And yet, when any record is measured, it’s always, without fail, incremental. Unless performance enhancing drugs are involved, a la the women’s 100m, 400m and 800m world records.

And, come to think of it, baseball. Barry Bonds, for example. So if Ryan was throwing 105 year in and year out, guess what? He was probably roided up too.

I think someone mentioned that upthread in post 29… :wink:

Watching those guys flail at, and have a hard time getting a racket on the pro’s serve? Not gonna say it is as hard or harder than hitting a baseball. But from the average layman’s perspective, it might as well be.

We were watching a HS girls’ softball game the other day. DAMN, those pitches came in in a hurry. With the closer mound and underhand pitch, I wonder if it is harder to hit a pro baseball or pro fastpitch softball pitching? (I have no experience/opinion. Being a Chicago boy, I only play REAL softball - 16"! ;))

Ruth famously used a very heavy bat, even for its time. Someone documented all of his tape measure shots very meticulously and objectively (as possible given the data), and they were soaring quite a bit farther than today’s bombs. The author theorized that the heavier bat indeed imparted more velocity to the ball, but that even the Babe (despite his image of being overweight he was immensely strong) wouldn’t be able to catch up to today’s pitches with such a heavy implement.

HS/college/pro softball pitching distance is 43 ft. Speeds up to 72-78 mph from the pros.
The travel time of both MLB and softball pitches are roughly in the same range with softball having a bit of an advantage at the higher velocities.
60.5 vs 43 ft=71%
72-78mph/102mph=70.6-76.4%