# How much of a problem is overpopulation for the planet? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 28, 2009, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100 "2009-03-28T16:36:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/1 "2009-03-28T16:36:27Z")
In [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=511292) **Chief Pendent** makes (over several posts) the following argument: > [@](#): > > I almost never see any real concern expressed about over-population, which I consider to be hugely more destructive and invasive. > > My sense is that it has become politically incorrect to complain about over-population, because most population expansion is occurring in the developing world. In the developed world, the population is pretty level, but the overall world population is not likely to level out until we reach 9Billion–and even those projections are simply assumptions. … > > … overpopulation of the earth is a much larger net destroyer of nature than is AGW. … over-population is being ignored as a problem. Now the ploy of saying that there-is-this-other-problem-that I-think-is-bigger-so-caring-about-the-one-we-are-discussing-is-hypocritical aside, the issue of overpopulation is a real one and, I think, deserving of its own thread: \*\*Is overpopulation indeed the single major threat to our planet? Has it been ignored as a problem?\*\* [Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population) gives us a good starting point. > [@](#): > > In the 20th century, the world saw the biggest increase in its population in human history due to lessening of the mortality rate in many countries due to medical advances and massive increase in agricultural productivity attributed to the Green Revolution.[19][20][21] > > In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world’s population was growing at the rate of 1.14% (or about 75 million people) per year,[22] down from a peak of 88 million per year in 1989. In the last few centuries, the number of people living on Earth has increased many times over. By the year 2000, there were 10 times as many people on Earth as there were 300 years ago. According to data from the CIA’s 2005–2006 World Factbooks, the world human population increased by 203,800 every day.[23] The CIA Factbook increased this to 211,090 people every day in 2007, and again to 220,980 people every day in 2009. > > Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19% in 1963, but growth remains high in Latin America, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.[24] > > In some countries there is negative population growth (i.e. net decrease in population over time), especially in Central and Eastern Europe (mainly due to low fertility rates) and Southern Africa (due to the high number of HIV-related deaths). Within the next decade, Japan and some countries in Western Europe are also expected to encounter negative population growth due to sub-replacement fertility rates. > > The United Nations states that population growth is rapidly declining due to the demographic transition. The world population is expected to peak at 9.2 billion in 2050. And [this](http://www.pregnantpause.org/numbers/fertility.htm) illustrates regional differences in fertility rates. (Albeit the site itself has a very particular POV.) A [U.N. Report](http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/migration/migration.htm) (click thru for the pdf) notes that most developed countries are going have decreasing populations and that those populations are going to be older. This senior skewed demographic is likely to cause significant strains on these economies and even significant migration from high population areas come up short to replace the losses in the working age population. Meanwhile the current [UN Population Division Policy Brief](http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm) (again, click thru for the pdf; it’s the first link) emphasizes that the least developed countries continue to have fertility rates of 5 or more and poorly met family planning needs. Not only do women there have lots of kids, they have particularly high adolescent birth rates. They argue that investment in family planning in these undeveloped countries pays on itself two to six times over in other avoided costs. My take: overpopulation is neither an ignored problem nor is it the single major problem to the planet or even close. Which is not say that it is not a problem that deserves attention, perhaps more than it gets. High birth rates in the underdeveloped world makes it hard to achieve goals in education (especially of women) or economic objectives and failure to achieve those makes impacting birth rates much more difficult. Unevenly distributed population and age demographics will cause regional difficulties. But so long as we plan ahead for climate changes with agricultural technologies and practices appropriate for the world in which we will exist within we should be able to feed the peak of 9 billion in a sustainable manner that does not destroy the planet. Thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/2 "2009-03-28T17:06:25Z")
[Paul Ehrlich’s](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb) predictions have failed to materialize as yet. Apocalypse-by-overpopulation [makes for good SF,](http://davidszondy.com/future/Dystopias/overpopulation.htm) but the idea is based on straight-line extrapolations and ignores the tendency of industrialization to reduce the birthrate. Which does not mean it’s not a problem, of course; it’s just not a problems that threatens imminent doom. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/3 "2009-03-28T17:20:50Z")
I don’t think overpopulation really is a problem. Overconsumption and thoughtless consumption are the real problems. If a permaculture mentality were to be inculcated worldwide we could support our population quite easily and make the world even greener than it is today. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/4 "2009-03-28T17:34:51Z")
Overpopulation is not a problem - the low range estimate from the U.N. actually has the global population declining quite dramatically. The mid-range estimate, quoted by DSeid above, is perfectly sustainable. The problems with population change come more from changing patterns of population, which will cause significant stress. Japan is facing a potential population meltdown. Europe’s population is increasingly being supported by immigration, which will over time change the nature of Europe. But overpopulation in general doesn’t seem to be something we need to worry about. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/5 "2009-03-28T17:42:38Z")
If overpopulation is a problem - and it can be a localized problem at the very least, plus the implications of population shifts and collapses Sam refers to - it certainly would not be the single major threat to our planet. There’s all kinds of wrong in that statement, but here’s one factoid to chew on: **If you got rid of half the world’s population, we’d still have just as many nuclear weapons.** A serious nuclear war is still a possibility, much as we’d like to believe the threat went away circa 1989, and a mid-level nuclear exchange would make overpopulation as an environmental problemn a very fond memory. Nuclear weapons frighten me a lot more than people screwing. ---
**Author:** ![DrCube](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a3d4f5/32.png) [@DrCube](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrCube)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/6 "2009-03-28T17:46:34Z")
Overpopulation definitely _is_ a problem, it just isn’t a catastrophic, armageddon-type problem. War, crime, disease, famine, poverty – almost all of the ills of society stem from the fact that there are too many people. It is probably never going to be a doomsday scenario because the population tends to stabilize itself with the above mentioned famine, disease, war, etc acting as a sort of negative feedback. Technology just raises the level of sustainability. But just because it isn’t the end of the world doesn’t mean that the world wouldn’t be a vastly better place in almost every way if there were far fewer people. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/7 "2009-03-28T17:58:04Z")
> [@DrCube](#): > > Overpopulation definitely _is_ a problem, it just isn’t a catastrophic, armageddon-type problem. War, crime, disease, famine, poverty – almost all of the ills of society stem from the fact that there are too many people. It is probably never going to be a doomsday scenario because the population tends to stabilize itself with the above mentioned famine, disease, war, etc acting as a sort of negative feedback. Technology just raises the level of sustainability. But just because it isn’t the end of the world doesn’t mean that the world wouldn’t be a vastly better place in almost every way if there were far fewer people. But the world WASN’T a better place when there were vastly fewer people. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/8 "2009-03-28T17:58:58Z")
**DrCube** It’s not that there are too many people it’s that the resources are used inefficiently. War, crime, disease, famine and poverty all existed when the population was 1/1000th of what it is today. Your statement is simply factually incorrect. Overpopulation is not the cause of these things. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/9 "2009-03-28T18:04:26Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > But the world WASN’T a better place when there were vastly fewer people. That’s because there was also vastly inferior science, technology and industrial infrastructure. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/10 "2009-03-28T18:05:38Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > That’s because there was also vastly inferior science, technology and industrial infrastructure. And thus **DrCube** is incorrect and **RickJay** is correct. Overpopulation has nothing to do with the cause of those things. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/11 "2009-03-28T18:09:52Z")
North America has a population half the size of Europe spread out over a landmass that is twice as large. Other pockets of the world have similar population/size disparities. Because of this, overpopulation will never be a major problem for the planet, just certain parts of it. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/12 "2009-03-28T18:23:18Z")
> **[Europe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe)** > > Europe is a continent\[a\] comprising the westernmost peninsulas of Eurasia, located entirely in the Northern Hemisphere and mostly in the Eastern Hemisphere. It shares the continental landmass of Afro-Eurasia with both Africa and Asia. It is bordered by the Arctic Ocean to the north, the Atlantic Ocean to the west, the Mediterranean Sea to the south, and Asia to the east. Europe is commonly considered to be separated from Asia by the watershed of the Ural Mountains, the Ural River, the Cas Eur... Area 10,180,000 km² (3,930,000 sq mi)o[›] Population 731,000,000o[›] > **[United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_states)** > > The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country primarily located in North America and consisting of 50 states, a federal district, five major unincorporated territories, nine Minor Outlying Islands,\[i\] and 326 Indian reservations. It is the world's third-largest country by both land and total area.\[c\] It shares land borders with Canada to its north and with Mexico to its south and has maritime borders with the Bahamas, C... Area Total 9,826,630 km2 1 3,794,066 sq mi Density 70/km² (181/sq mi) Population - ``` 2009 estimate 306,101,000[2] (3rd4) ``` - ``` 2000 census 281,421,906[3] ``` - ``` Density 31/km2 (180th) 80/sq mi ``` And yet both Europe and North America are some of the most prosperous, cleanest and safest places to live in the entire world. > **[Sudan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudan)** > > Sudan (English: /suːˈdɑːn/ ⓘ soo-DAHN or /suːˈdæn/ soo-DAN; Arabic: السودان, romanized: Sūdān), officially the Republic of the Sudan (Arabic: جمهورية السودان, romanized: Jumhūriyyat as-Sūdān), is a country in Northeast Africa. It borders the Central African Republic to the southwest, Chad to the west, Egypt to the north, Eritrea to the northeast, Ethiopia to the southeast, Libya to the northwest, South Sudan to the south, and the Red Sea. It has a population of 45.7 million people as of 2022 His... Area - ``` Total 2,505,813 km2 (10th) ``` 967,495 sq mi - ``` Water (%) 6 ``` Population - ``` July 2007 estimate 39,379,358 (33rd) ``` - ``` 1993 census 24,940,683 ``` - ``` Density 14/km2 (194th) ``` 36/sq mi > **[Zimbabwe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwe)** > > Zimbabwe (/zɪmˈbɑːbweɪ, -wi/), officially the Republic of Zimbabwe, is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, between the Zambezi and Limpopo Rivers, bordered by South Africa to the south, Botswana to the southwest, Zambia to the north, and Mozambique to the east. The capital and largest city is Harare, and the second largest is Bulawayo. > A country of roughly 15 million people, Zimbabwe's largest ethnic group are the Shona, who make up 80% of the population, followed by the Northern Ndebe... Area - ``` Total 390,757 km2 (60th) ``` 150,871 sq mi - ``` Water (%) 1 ``` Population - ``` January 2008 estimate 13,349,0001 (68th) ``` - ``` Density 33/km2 (170th) ``` 85/sq mi > **[Ethiopia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopia)** > > Ethiopia,\[a\] officially the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, is a landlocked country located in the Horn of Africa region of East Africa. It shares borders with Eritrea to the north, Djibouti to the northeast, Somalia to the east and southeast, Kenya to the south, South Sudan to the west, and Sudan to the northwest.\[b\] Ethiopia covers a land area of 1,112,000 square kilometres (472,000 sq. miles). As of 2023\[update\], it is home to around 116.5 million inhabitants, making it th Anatomicall... Area - ``` Total 1,104,300 km2 (27th) ``` 426,371 sq mi - ``` Water (%) 0.7 ``` Population - ``` 2008 estimate 73,500,000 (15th²) ``` - ``` 1994 census 53,477,265 ``` - ``` Density 70/km2 (123rd) ``` 181/sq mi > **[Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan)** > > Japan (Japanese: 日本, \[ɲihoɴ\] ⓘ, Nippon or Nihon,\[nb 1\] and formally 日本国, Nippon-koku or Nihon-koku)\[nb 2\] is an island country in East Asia. It is situated in the northwest Pacific Ocean and is bordered on the west by the Sea of Japan, extending from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north toward the East China Sea, Philippine Sea, and Taiwan in the south. Japan is a part of the Ring of Fire, and spans an archipelago of 14,125 islands, with the five main islands being Hokkaido, Honshu (the "mainland... Area - ``` Total 377,873 km2 (62nd) ``` 145,883 sq mi - ``` Water (%) 0.8 ``` Population - ``` 2007 estimate 127,433,494 (10th) ``` - ``` 2004 census 127,333,002 ``` - ``` Density 337/km2 (30th) ``` 872.8/sq mi > **[India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India)** > > India, officially the Republic of India (ISO: Bhārat Gaṇarājya), is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by area; the most populous country as of June 2023; and from the time of its independence in 1947, the world's most populous democracy. Bounded by the Indian Ocean on the south, the Arabian Sea on the southwest, and the Bay of Bengal on the southeast, it shares land borders with Pakistan to the west;\[j\] China, Nepal, and Bhutan to the north; and B Modern humans arri... Area - ``` Total 3,287,240‡ km2 (7th) ``` 1,269,210 sq mi - ``` Water (%) 9.56 ``` Population - ``` 2008 estimate 1,147,995,904[9] (2nd) ``` - ``` 2001 census 1,028,610,328[10] ``` - ``` Density 349/km2 (32nd) ``` 904/sq mi So as you can see, population density has little to do with quality of life in most cases. The US and Zimbabwe have a similar density. Europe and Ethiopia are similar. Japan and India are similar and Sudan has less than all of them and yet is one of the shittiest places to live on Earth. It has less to do with population and more to do with allocation of resources. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/13 "2009-03-28T18:23:23Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > And thus **DrCube** is incorrect and **RickJay** is correct. Overpopulation has nothing to do with the cause of those things. But it does allow for the possibility that the world would be a better place with fewer people, if they also got to keep our modern technology, etc. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/14 "2009-03-28T18:25:07Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But it does allow for the possibility that the world would be a better place with fewer people, if they also got to keep our modern technology, etc. And it also might be a better place with more people depending on other factors. ---
**Author:** ![threemae](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5f9b8f/32.png) [@threemae](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/threemae)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/15 "2009-03-28T18:25:46Z")
Problem for whom? Human endeavor, intellect and accomplishment so far exceeds anything else on this planet that I have a hard time becoming overly concerned about the environmental impact of human existence compared to the net value of human life. Obviously, environmental concerns are important and we should consider how we can preserve the natural environment, but not at any cost. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/16 "2009-03-28T18:27:00Z")
> [@threemae](#): > > Problem for whom? > > Human endeavor, intellect and accomplishment so far exceeds anything else on this planet that I have a hard time becoming overly concerned about the environmental impact of human existence compared to the net value of human life. Obviously, environmental concerns are important and we should consider how we can preserve the natural environment, but not at any cost. The question is whether we should regard the natural environment as having value and in and of itself, independent of its usefulness to humans. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/17 "2009-03-28T18:28:47Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > The question is whether we should regard the natural environment as having value and in and of itself, independent of its usefulness to humans. Why should we? Does the environment view us as having value independent of our usefulness to it? There are reasons to value the environment that don’t have anything to do with a sentimental mushy-headed romanticism that requires a level of selflessness no human being has ever actually displayed. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/18 "2009-03-28T19:24:08Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > The question is whether we should regard the natural environment as having value and in and of itself, independent of its usefulness to humans. A question which is not, I think, seriously pondered very often. Most people’s reaction would be either, “Of course! What a stupid question!” or “Of course not! What a stupid question!” ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/19 "2009-03-28T19:36:05Z")
I believe the human brain is by far the most important resource we have. Many, if not most, of the problems caused by higher population density can be solved by human ingenuity. As has already been pointed out the US and Europe have higher densities than other countries that have much greater problems. Population density becomes more of a problem when people don’t have a chance to cultivate their own ingenuity. I don’t think overpopulation can be written off as inconsequential but I don’t believe it is our biggest problem. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2009, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100/20 "2009-03-28T20:00:19Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > A question which is not, I think, seriously pondered very often. Most people’s reaction would be either, “Of course! What a stupid question!” or “Of course not! What a stupid question!” Well maybe it’s because it presupposes that we are separate and distinct from the environment, which is well, not true. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-of-a-problem-is-overpopulation-for-the-planet/491100.md?page=2)