# How much oil is in there, anyway? (If we can't stop the flow\] Edited title **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 26, 2010, 7:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804 "2010-05-26T07:53:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Rusalka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecd19e/32.png) [@Rusalka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rusalka)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 7:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/1 "2010-05-26T07:53:56Z")
I’ve been wondering how long that well in the Gulf would leak oil if nothing was done. Has a natural event ever caused such a leak? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/2 "2010-05-26T11:02:26Z")
Oil coming emerging from the ground, even underwater, is commonplace - it’s called seepage and the locations are called seeps. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 11:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/3 "2010-05-26T11:20:58Z")
since no one else has jumped in, the macondo prospect is listed as 50 million barrels by Wiki but I suspect BP isn’t telling anyone if they have a better estimate. > **[Macondo Prospect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macondo_Prospect)** > > The Macondo Prospect (Mississippi Canyon Block 252, abbreviated MC252) is an oil and gas prospect in the United States Exclusive Economic Zone of the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Louisiana. The prospect was the site of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig explosion in April 2010 that led to a major oil spill in the region from the first exploration well, named itself MC252-1 (nicknamed also Macondo-1), which had been designed to investigate the existence of the prospect. > Oil companies routin... ---
**Author:** ![toadspittle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c0e974/32.png) [@toadspittle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toadspittle)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/4 "2010-05-26T15:40:23Z")
I understand that there is likely to be great pressure underground that is forcing some of the oil out, but don’t most oil wells need to be **pumped**? If left unattended, is the entire underground reservoir going to empty itself out into the ocean, or will it blow off some pent-up pressure and then subside? ---
**Author:** ![Rusalka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecd19e/32.png) [@Rusalka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rusalka)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/5 "2010-05-26T16:24:58Z")
Toadspittle, good question. Any oil well experts out there? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/6 "2010-05-26T17:18:10Z")
I’m no expert, but my brother is, and the short answer is that some do need to be pumped and some don’t. Where you do, you generally pump in water to push the oil up and out, because oil - at least the bits that most interest us - floats. I’m not sufficiently knowledgeable to explain further. ---
**Author:** ![mozchron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@mozchron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mozchron)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/7 "2010-05-26T17:23:46Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > since no one else has jumped in, the macondo prospect is listed as 50 million barrels by Wiki but I suspect BP isn’t telling anyone if they have a better estimate. > > [Macondo Prospect - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macondo_Prospect) As a back 'o the envelope calculation, its trivial to estimate this. Assuming the 5,000 barrels per day leak, and 50,000,000 barrels in the prospect, that is 10,000 days, or a little over 27 years. Now, the leak flow is probably greater than 5,000 barrels per day. And the size of the prospect might be bigger or smaller. So put some slop factor into this. Does somewhere between 10 and 50 years sound reasonable to everyone? ---
**Author:** ![Colophon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f05b48/32.png) [@Colophon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colophon)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/8 "2010-05-26T17:30:35Z")
As a side question, are there any estimates about what proportion of the leaked oil has been and/or can be collected and refined? ---
**Author:** ![NinetyWt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/cc9497/32.png) [@NinetyWt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NinetyWt)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/9 "2010-05-26T17:43:09Z")
Some discussion on this at The Oil Drum in [this thread](http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6501#more). [QUOTE=The Oil Drum] To assess the possible size of the total flow one might consider the flows from existing wells in the Gulf, and as Euan Mearns has pointed out, if you look at the Thunder Horse platform after it had four wells in production (with their construction designed to ease fluid flow out of the formation to the well and production lines) it was averaging 50,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent per well. This well is not in such a productive zone. Also, the well is producing through a badly damaged cement liner, and a complex path to the well head, and from a shallower depth, so that the differential pressure will likely be less. The constraint from the damaged BOP will probably add additional resistance to the flow, and thus it is hard to see how the flow could get near 50,000 barrels per day. [/QUOTE] I’ve been doing a lot of reading over there since the accident happened, and it’s just about the best place I’ve found to get good solid information on it. They also have estimated the total volume of the formation, one could look through the various threads and find it. ---
**Author:** ![Hampshire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hampshire/32/4887_2.png) [@Hampshire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hampshire)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/10 "2010-05-26T18:14:20Z")
I’ve never heard of this place before: [Coal Oil Point](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_Oil_Point_seep_field) , but it sounds like a naturally occuring oil leak not unlike the current gulf spill. Not a pretty thing and wildlife around it seems pretty non-exsistant but nobody seems overly concerned about it. Of course you don’t want another area like it to exsist especially due to human carelessness but it seems like it can be dealt with being there. ---
**Author:** ![mozchron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@mozchron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mozchron)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/11 "2010-05-26T18:20:31Z")
> [@Hampshire](#): > > I’ve never heard of this place before: [Coal Oil Point](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_Oil_Point_seep_field) > , but it sounds like a naturally occuring oil leak not unlike the current gulf spill. > Not a pretty thing and wildlife around it seems pretty non-exsistant but nobody seems overly concerned about it. > Of course you don’t want another area like it to exsist especially due to human carelessness but it seems like it can be dealt with being there. Its quite unlike the gulf spill. This natural seep produces about 100 barrels of crude a day. The gulf leak is, at minimum, 50 times larger (and probably much more). ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/12 "2010-05-26T18:30:04Z")
And in fact that one is the _world’s largest_ natural seep. ---
**Author:** ![NinetyWt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/cc9497/32.png) [@NinetyWt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NinetyWt)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/13 "2010-05-26T20:28:53Z")
I read an anectdote on the Oil Drum from a fellow who had worked on a rig which was near a natural seep. The oil company put a containment dome over the natural seep and captured the oil coming from it. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/14 "2010-05-26T21:06:11Z")
> [@mozchron](#): > > As a back 'o the envelope calculation, its trivial to estimate this. > > Assuming the 5,000 barrels per day leak, and 50,000,000 barrels in the prospect, that is 10,000 days, or a little over 27 years. > > Now, the leak flow is probably greater than 5,000 barrels per day. And the size of the prospect might be bigger or smaller. So put some slop factor into this. > > Does somewhere between 10 and 50 years sound reasonable to everyone? You’re also assuming a constant rate of seepage. The rate of seepage should decrease as the reservoir is depleted. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/15 "2010-05-26T23:14:06Z")
Let’s suppose (and hope it’s just supposition) that the BP oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico turned out to be unstoppable; nobody on earth could devise a way to prevent it. How much oil would this thing end up spewing into the Gulf? I presume it’d keep doing it until the pressure in the oil reserve was too weak to keep spewing. How much is that? Given how much oil it would be, just how big could the disaster get? Could it cover the entire Gulf? The entire Atlantic? Destroy the world? ---
**Author:** ![Blake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a9a28c/32.png) [@Blake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blake)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/16 "2010-05-26T23:45:02Z")
[Identical thread from yesterday.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=564621), with a less enlightening title. You might want to get a Mod to merge the or something. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2010, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/17 "2010-05-26T23:49:28Z")
BP estimated a reservoir of 50 million barrels -\> 2 billion gallons. 200 gallons per square mile, on the surface, [is enough to produce a bright rainbow sheen](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_spill). Some estimates put the current spill volume at 39 million gallons. That’s enough to cover 195000 square miles with a rainbow. That figure represents about 32% of the total surface area of the gulf of Mexico( 615,000 mi²). If all 2 billion gallons is released, the resulting sheen could cover 10 million square miles, or about 24% of the combined [north and south Atlantic](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Ocean). ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2010, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/18 "2010-05-27T00:04:23Z")
> [@Colophon](#): > > what proportion of the leaked oil has been and/or can be collected and refined? Collected and refined? None. You aren’t going to put into a refinery a petrochemical feedstock that’s high in salt water and the volatile fractions have already evapourated off. ---
**Author:** ![ChrisBooth12](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e95f7d/32.png) [@ChrisBooth12](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChrisBooth12)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2010, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/19 "2010-05-27T01:38:13Z")
We would nuke it ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2010, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804/20 "2010-05-27T01:49:18Z")
> [@ChrisBooth12](#): > > We would nuke it What would that do? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-oil-is-in-there-anyway-if-we-cant-stop-the-flow-edited-title/540804.md?page=2)