# How much safer are modern cars compared to cars from 20 years ago **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [December 11, 2018, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921 "2018-12-11T00:50:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/21 "2018-12-11T16:14:52Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Moreover, the table shows an INCREASE over the most recent 3 years, and no apparent consistent reduction since 09. What’s up with that? My personal thought is that at least some of the safety alerts and buzzers are a distraction, and may cause drivers to pay less attention, figuring the car is looking out for them. Smartphones and an aging population. It’s not the safety alert buzzer that’s the distraction, it’s the incoming message alert that’s the distraction. In 2010 about 20% of the US population had a smartphone. In 2018 it was 70%. Distracted driving was already an issue with people talking and texting on dumb phones, and it has just gotten worse as the phones have gotten more addicting. Driver aides and automation will help pull back some of this increase, just in time for nationwide legalized marijuana. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/22 "2018-12-11T16:41:25Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > Smartphones and an aging population. > > It’s not the safety alert buzzer that’s the distraction, it’s the incoming message alert that’s the distraction. … So - you suggest that there have actually been MORE SIGNIFICANT gains in safety over the past decade or so than the stats seem to indicate, but that those gains were in part offset by phones/age? Sounds reasonable. I do not have any “driver assist” notifications on my car, and have only driven/ridden in such cars infrequently. Since I’m unfamiliar with them, I’m not a good example. But I have occasionally found it mildly “startling” to have a light flash and/or a buzzer sound - “alerting” me to some non-issue that I was already aware of. And the 2 guys I have spoken with about such alerts have said that they turned the majority of them off, as they went off in what the drivers considered normal driving conditions. I DO use/enjoy my rearview camera for parking. And the one alert I would like is for cross traffic in parking lots when backing out of a space. But both of those would likely concern body damage rather than fatalities/serious injuries. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/23 "2018-12-11T16:59:31Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Where on that list do you perceive the reduction in fatalities related to improved crumple zones and airbags? I’m not arguing, I’m merely asking when you think those improvements occurred - and then interested in seeing if a reduction in fatalities corresponded. Airbags became a common option on cars in the late 1980s and early 1990s; the last car I bought that didn’t have an airbag was a 1991 Mazda Protege (it was an option on higher-level trim packages, but not on the trim level that I’d bought). And, IIRC, in that era, sometimes only the driver had an airbag. In the U.S., the law began requiring a “passive restraint system” in new cars in 1989. However, that law allowed the system to be either an airbag, or an automatic seatbelt (which was what my Mazda had). The law didn’t start to require airbags (for both the driver and front seat passenger) until 1998, so my guess is that you would start really seeing the impact of airbags on the stats in the 1990s and 2000s, as they became more widespread in service. ---
**Author:** ![mixdenny](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mixdenny/32/2962_2.png) [@mixdenny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mixdenny)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/24 "2018-12-11T17:07:28Z")
I have one small data point. One of our cars is a 2011 Kia Sorento. A couple of years ago I came across an index that showed how many people had been killed in various models of cars after each had been on the market so many years (I forget, but I think 2 or 3 years). For the first time ever in their survey, no one had been killed in a vehicle, actually two different cars made it. The 2011 Sorento was one of them. And it was a very popular model, we used to see them all over the place after we bought one of the first ones. It was just a simple list, no attempt to correlate mileage or anything else. And the Kia only has like 4 or 6 airbags. Our 2014 Buick Encore has 14. Dennis Dennis ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/25 "2018-12-11T17:18:02Z")
> [@kopek](#): > > For major crashes like that, give me a modern car. But since I’m one of those fatalists who feels when my time is up, my time is up you think you can decide that for your passengers too? ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/26 "2018-12-11T17:22:34Z")
[According to this](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/22/new-report-shows-how-many-accidents-injuries-collision-avoidance-systems-prevent.html), the various lane/brake assist features do help, but aren’t that common yet. > [@](#): > > She found the rate of single-vehicle, sideswipe and head-on crashes was 11 percent lower in vehicles with the warning systems. More importantly, the collision avoidance technology cut the rates of injury crashes of the same type by 21 percent, according to the study. > [@](#): > > Despite the fact there were approximately 6 million vehicles crashes in the U.S. in 2015, the adoption of collision avoidance systems has been slow. Cicchino said just 6 percent of the new vehicles for sale in 2017 include lane departure warning systems as standard equipment. Blind spot alerts are standard in just 9 percent of the vehicles in showrooms. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/27 "2018-12-11T17:43:37Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > [According to this](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/22/new-report-shows-how-many-accidents-injuries-collision-avoidance-systems-prevent.html), the various lane/brake assist features do help, but aren’t that common yet. yeah, they’re starting at the high end and trickling down. up until now, the only cars I’ve driven with the full suite of ADAS features have been Lincoln, Cadillac, Mercedes, Audi, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/28 "2018-12-11T17:57:00Z")
> [@kopek](#): > > For major crashes like that, give me a modern car. But since I’m one of those fatalists who feels when my time is up, my time is up The problem is that your time is up much sooner in an old car. Some pretty catastrophic looking accidents are survivable in a modern car. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/29 "2018-12-11T18:21:22Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > Smartphones and an aging population. > > Driver aides and automation will help pull back some of this increase, just in time for nationwide legalized marijuana. Right I mentioned phones but change in demographics is probably another one. More old people lately. And fewer people in prime young idiot driving age range is probably also buried somewhere in the fatality rate reductions of previous decades, along with car improvements and other things. And again the clear effect of substance abuse on life expectancy directly from drug overdose (though opiod rather than marijuana) lately probably points to more car fatalities from drug abuse also. Again if look at the IIHS stats by car type, if you have a fairly big luxury car/SUV _and drive like the typical driver of those vehicles_, your personal fatality risk in a car accident is probably close to the zero level several models have recorded in recent years. The absolute zeroes are statistical anomalies, similar models usually have some very low non-zero death rate. But it really depends enormously how you drive, then put on top of that a high level of protection from accidents that are completely not your fault and it’s largely gone as a real risk in life. If you really are a safe driver (maybe most people think they are safer than average but obviously can’t all be, but some people really are). ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/30 "2018-12-11T18:30:53Z")
> [@bump](#): > > If you look at the deaths per 100k population, it’s pretty clear that there were major improvements in roughly 1970, and that there have been periodic drops ever since. If you graph it and apply a polynomial trendline (4th order) in Excel, the slope is pretty consistent over time. So it looks more or less like the changes since 1998 are about as dramatic as from 1978-1998. I chose to look at the deaths per miles driven, since there has been some discussion that safer cars lead to more driving and thus an increase in the accident and death rate, relative to what it would have been if there were constant miles per person. (Not an increase in absolute terms, of course.) I haven’t plotted those numbers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they looked the same. The improvements from air bags, for instance, only involve those who would have been killed even if they were using seat belts. ---
**Author:** ![Kropotkin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kropotkin/32/18045_2.png) [@Kropotkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kropotkin)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/31 "2018-12-11T18:33:38Z")
Using the dubious hypothesis that 2 WAGs will equal knowledge, if as I think I heard, pickup trucks are less safe than cars, and if, as I think I heard, pickup truck sales are increasing, does this shed any light on the slower rate of safety of late? ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/32 "2018-12-11T18:35:03Z")
> [@jz78817](#): > > you think you can decide that for your passengers too? “When I go, I’d like to die peacefully in my sleep, like my uncle. Not screaming in terror, like his passengers.” ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/33 "2018-12-11T18:50:48Z")
[Here](https://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/overview-of-fatality-facts) is a detailed breakdown of highway fatalities, including by seat belt use and due to speeding. Not drunk driving, though. [Here](https://www.businessinsider.com/traffic-fatalities-historical-trend-us-2016-4) is a site with the deaths for 100M VPM graphed. It also covers the increase in deaths in 2015 > [@](#): > > Still, it’s worth noting that motor vehicle deaths increased by 8% — or the largest percent increase in 50 years — in 2015, according to preliminary estimates from the National Safety Council. An estimated 38,300 people were killed on US roads. > > “While many factors likely contributed to the fatality increase, a stronger economy and lower unemployment rates are likely at the core of the trend,” suggested the NSC report. Which is interesting. As for drunk driving, I found this > [@](#): > > Between 1991 and 2017, the rate of drunk driving fatalities per 100,000 population has decreased 47% nationally, and 68% among those under 21. … Among the people killed in these drunk driving crashes, 67% (7,052) were in crashes in which at least one driver in the crash had a BAC of .15 or higher. I haven’t found any good charts yet. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/34 "2018-12-11T18:52:49Z")
> [@Kropotkin](#): > > Using the dubious hypothesis that 2 WAGs will equal knowledge, if as I think I heard, pickup trucks are less safe than cars, and if, as I think I heard, pickup truck sales are increasing, does this shed any light on the slower rate of safety of late? I remember that when heavy vans and SUVs were introduced, drivers in them were safer but drivers in the cars they hit were less safe. Might be true for pickup trucks also. But see above for the real reason for the increase. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/35 "2018-12-11T18:54:05Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > Right I mentioned phones but change in demographics is probably another one. More old people lately. And fewer people in prime young idiot driving age range is probably also buried somewhere in the fatality rate reductions of previous decades, along with car improvements and other things. > > And again the clear effect of substance abuse on life expectancy directly from drug overdose (though opiod rather than marijuana) lately probably points to more car fatalities from drug abuse also. I saw something saying that there are more deaths due to driving while drugged than driving while drunk now. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/36 "2018-12-11T18:59:09Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > …Moreover, the table shows an INCREASE over the most recent 3 years, and no apparent consistent reduction since 09. What’s up with that? My personal thought is that at least some of the safety alerts and buzzers are a distraction, and may cause drivers to pay less attention, figuring the car is looking out for them… This is not well understood, but is probably mostly due to cell phone use. Poke around the site of the insurance institute of highway safety web site. They have studied all sorts of specific features, drilling down to VIN data so they can compare the same vehicle with and without various features. Most of the newer crash avoidance systems do, in fact, reduce the number of incidents (although they sometimes increase the average cost, since they feature expensive sensors on the perimeter of the car) with the notable exception of the lane departure warning, which might actually increase the number of fender-benders. (Probably because it startles drivers.) But vehicle stability control, automatic braking, blind-spot warnings, and many other newer features appear to be winners. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/37 "2018-12-11T19:36:07Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > I chose to look at the deaths per miles driven, since there has been some discussion that safer cars lead to more driving and thus an increase in the accident and death rate, relative to what it would have been if there were constant miles per person. (Not an increase in absolute terms, of course.) > I haven’t plotted those numbers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they looked the same. The improvements from air bags, for instance, only involve those who would have been killed even if they were using seat belts. I graphed that too, but the problem was that the differences were pretty small- it looked mostly like an exponential decrease, in that it started really high early on (lots of deaths, not many miles driven), and tapered/leveled out fairly fast. Doing it by population let the differences show more prominently. For example, you can see a precipitous drop between 1972 and 1973 (seat belts?), another between 1979-1982 (?), a third in 1987-1991(mandatory seat belt laws?), a fourth in 2004-2010 (?). More interestingly, there’s a huge rise between 1960 and 1965. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/38 "2018-12-11T19:44:25Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > I’m surprised no one posted this yet, but [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year) is automobile death rates over time. > Fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled fell from 1.64 in 1997 to 1.16 in 2018. And this fall was from a low number - it was 5.19 in 1968 when I began to drive and from 7.19 in 1951 when I was born. > . And it would have fallen even more except more accidents due to distracted driving. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/39 "2018-12-11T19:50:04Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > I remember that when heavy vans and SUVs were introduced, drivers in them were safer but drivers in the cars they hit were less safe. Might be true for pickup trucks also. But see above for the real reason for the increase. That wasn’t really true. Altho it was true for a head on collision, those big SUV got into more fatal accidents as they had a tendency to roll over. So, overall they were less safe than a family sedan. ---
**Author:** ![NanaMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e5b9ba/32.png) [@NanaMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NanaMan)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2018, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921/40 "2018-12-11T19:51:11Z")
I think it is the difference between night and day. Cars these days have the airbags and even lane control and backup cameras. No comparison! Of course, it is still the idiot behind the wheel (not you of course) that is the biggest safety hazard. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-safer-are-modern-cars-compared-to-cars-from-20-years-ago/825921.md?page=3)