# How much will the final aggregated polls miss the actual results? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 12, 2016, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-will-the-final-aggregated-polls-miss-the-actual-results/768298 "2016-10-12T01:12:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 21
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-will-the-final-aggregated-polls-miss-the-actual-results/768298/21 "2016-10-12T16:25:25Z")
The poll numbers for Clinton and Trump are not quite as variable as the poll numbers \*\*not \*\*for Clinton and Trump. Right now, Johnson and Green are averaging about 9% in the polls. They will not get 9% of the actual votes. People want to support third parties in theory, which is what polls are, but when they actually get to the voting booth they vote for a major party. Additionally, about 8% are undecided. (RealClearPolitics four-way average as as now, noon on 10/12.) In October 2012, Obama and Romney were polling at about 92%. They actually gathered about 98%. The missing voters broke around 3 to 1 for Obama. Where will those 17% go this year? Johnson and Green will get half of their current numbers, say 4% and 1% to be generous. Of the remaining 12%, another 3 to 1 split makes it 9% for Clinton and 3% for Trump. That adds up to 53% Clinton, 42% Trump. Is a 3 to 1 split too high? Possible, since that was for a sitting President. A more even split makes it 50% Clinton, 45% Trump. I think that’s a bit low since that merely leaves the spread where it is today, and it will clearly be higher. I’m going with 52% Clinton, 43% Trump, 4% Johnson, 1% Green. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-will-the-final-aggregated-polls-miss-the-actual-results/768298)._