The pro-war segment of the SDMB seems to think that without big guns pointing at every country, the world’s tyrants will rise up and take over
The problem with that is that global domination isn’t like a robber going through an unguarded house. You have to live there and most likely, you’re not going to be able to kill or evict everyone that disagrees with you
The US doesn’t need to be protecting a bunch of random countries because nothing will happen to them if our protection is taken away. Right now there are dozens of tiny countries located in places like Africa that have little friends and allies and no power beyond a bunch of thugs with AK-47’s. If Russia or Iran wants to expand, why not take over Somalia? Wipe out that country and install the country of New Russia or something? They don’t because war is expensive
The US should withdraw our forces from the likes of Asian and Europe and a bunch of tiny little countries that don’t need it. They are not going to get attacked or taken over by bigger bullies on the block, this isn’t middle school. They don’t need our protection. China has had the ability to wipe out and take over Taiwan for decades and I doubt its the US that’s stopping them. There simply isn’t enough of a tangible benefit to do so. In the 21st century, fewer countries are taken over by guns; more will fall or be influenced by trade and economic matters. There’s no way China’s going to put any soldiers on the border to in northern Mexico because seriously, what are they going to gain from it? And how much would it take for them to actually take over the US? Its simply not worth it
I’ll believe in such a need for defense when Antarctica flies a Communist flag and Eastern Island statues are recarved into Stalin heads
Why hasn’t Russia conquered Somalia yet? Seriously? Well, has it occurred to you that they are fortressing their troops in Kamchatka to get their 7 army continental bonus each turn, rather than risking the dangerous move from Southern Europe through Egypt to Eastern Africa? No, of course not.
Oh, wait. Real life isn’t a game of Risk, which you seem to look to in order to understand modern international relations.
But then, I’m just one of those SDMB war-mongers who opposed the Iraq war and who doesn’t want to see an arms race in East Asia.
That’s an incredible statement to make. Because the United States is exactly what has been stopping China from taking over Taiwan for the last sixty years.
Not to mention that, as a matter of fact, China has not had the logistical capability to mount a massive amphibious assault for the last several decades. There are news accounts over the last few years that that is changing, or has changed, depending on who you listen to.
But I have the feeling that anybody who knows anything about military matters is part of the “pro-war segment of the SDMB.”
I don’t know. XT and I once got into a debate over this very issue. My position was if it was just China vs Taiwan, China does have sufficient resources to invade and conquer Taiwan. It would be a sloppy and half-assed invasion but it would be big enough to work despite its flaws.
People forget the Chinese invaded Hainan in 1950 and they planned on invading Taiwan in 1954. You can argue that Taiwan is a lot farther from the mainland than Hainan is but we’re talking a difference of ten miles versus a hundred miles. What matters is the first hundred yards or so - after that you’ve either figured out a way to cross the water or you’ve drowned.
The Chinese armed forces of the 1950s were a formidable power, as the Americans found out in Korea. If they had invaded Taiwan in 1954 without American intervention then they may have succeeded, especially since at this point the Soviets were still largely on side to provide technical assistance. The problem is that by the 1960s and 70s this force had been reduced to a shadow of its former self. The generals and leaders from WW2 and the civil war ( Deng Xiao Ping, for example) had all been purged if not outright killed by Mao during his many paranoid outbursts and the Cultural Revolution, the economy was largely in tatters and there was widespread famine in the countryside. Soviet technical help was long gone, the air force and navy would have been purged especially thouroughly as they were the powerbase of Lin Biao and were basically useless.
In 1960s and 70s it was just as likely that the Taiwanese would have launched a reconquista of the mainland, especially if the Americans were there to help (well, aside from the nukes). Taiwan has a huge army and were regularly launching sea and air raids on the Chinese east coast. They had all the American weapons they wanted while the Chinese were scrambling to gear up for some massive war with the USSR on their Northern border.
China is doing better today but this is because China is now an integrated part of the world economy including Taiwan and the US, something the USSR never was. Most of the Taiwanese economy now revolved around trade and investment in China. So how will a shooting war happen? The Chinese could devastate Taiwan by simply nationalizing all those Taiwanese factories in China, or (worst case) disrupting Taiwanese shipping with missiles and submarines, but this would hurt everyone including China so unless Taiwan elects a Kim Jung Il for president it’s hard to see why anyone would go there.
I have to feel that’s a little bit optimistic. As Stalin once observed, quantity has a quality all its own in military matters. 15,000,000 Taiwanese were not going to conquer 900,000,000 mainland Chinese.
Have you lived there or have close relatives there? China and Taiwan aren’t two different worlds, as much as some would have others believe. There are so much similarities between the two that China attacking Taiwan would be like you stabbing your hand for misbehaving. No matter the missile lobbing exercises or disputes, these are two sides of the same coin. China doesn’t want to attack Taiwan and would probably be the first to offer its protection should the US pull out. There was a time, right after their civil war, that your statement would have been true but it hasn’t been for a long time. Taiwan has nothing to fear from China and this is coming from the Taiwan perspective
Do you understand what the term “take over” means? I know China doesn’t want to destroy Taiwan but it definitely wants to take over Taiwan. It doesn’t even claim otherwise; that’s China official policy towards Taiwan. Hell yes, I believe China would offer Taiwan its “protection” and regards Taiwan as its own “hand”. But there are numerous Taiwanese who don’t want to be part of the People’s Republic and their fears about that possibility aren’t nothing.
I’m talking about a military takeover because this thread is about defense. If you want to talk about economic takeovers or influence, that’s a completely different issue.