Update on Project Better Place for anyone interested. It doesn’t look like they are too worried about kids unplugging them.
If they were deaf, then it wouldn’t matter if the cars were quiet or loud, as they wouldn’t hear them anyway. But for a sight-impaired person, the difference between a loud car and a quiet car might be the difference between a car they detect and one they don’t.
Is it “FUD” to not blindly accept the promises made by people who’ve not deployed the technology widely yet? I’ve dealt with enough “Alpha” techonologies being deployed too soon to buy the idea that the people in charge of them have thought of all the significant problems. The automakers have poured billions into fuel cell research, because they were certain they’d be able to develop those faster than they could develop practical battery technology. Now, they’re switching to batteries, because they can’t get the costs of fuel cells down to where they need them to be. This is not as simple as going to the Moon, simply because people won’t tolerate the kinds of things in their daily lives that a test pilot will. Not to mention, cost was a minor consideration in Apollo. What good does a technology do you, if it is beyond the means of 95% of people?
As I pointed out upthread, estimates have battery technology being, at best, 10 years away from where it needs to be. Its entirely possible that a breakthrough will happen before that point in time, but, of course, we have no way of predicting it. The history of technology is littered with ideas that took a long time to take off, and studies have shown that the easiest way for a new technology to get adopted is for it to closely match the technology it is replacing in terms of user experience. Until electric cars seem little different than conventionally powered cars, they will remain, at best, a niche item, if not a simple curiousity.
I have never said it can’t be done, only that it is going to take a long time before it happens. Yes, it can be done, but there are a lot of stumbling blocks along the way, and there are aspects of the technology which I don’t think have been properly examined. I am not a “nattering naysayer of negativism” on this, as I’m sure we’ll make a shift away from the ICE completely within my lifetime. I don’t know if it’ll be battery technology, fuel cells, or something else entirely. It is too early to tell. Right now, we’re at about the same point we were when cars were first developed, with a number of technologies all vying to become dominant. We don’t know exactly how, when, or what will cause the shift to what will replace the ICE.
At the dawn of the 20th Century, it was a combination of seemingly unrelated factors which helped this. One was the outbreak of hoof and mouth disease in NYC. The city did two things in response to this, they sealed the watering troughs in the city, and banned horses from the city. Because Stanely Steamers hadn’t changed their designs in ages and failed to install a simple condensor on their cars so you could recapture the steam, they became utterly useless in NYC. Henry Ford was marketing his Model T at this time, and the electric starter was starting to show up on some vehicles. This killed steam cars in NYC, as well as electric cars (Why buy an electric car when for less money you could get a car which offered so much more?). Had that simple event not happened, we might have wound up with all three technologies competing against one another for a longer period of time.
You do realize that the US car makers (assuming they survive) are planning on having things like the batteries built in China, don’t you? Many of the electronics are made there as well, so don’t expect the adoption of the electric car to mean that we won’t be sending large amounts of US currency overseas, as we most certainly will. IMHO, we’re going to find that China’s a bigger concern than terrorists within a decade or two.
There’s serious concern amongst the blind and hard of hearing that silent cars are a big danger to people. Fortunately, this is a relatively easy matter to solve.
IME, its the things you don’t worry about, that bite you. MS wasn’t worried about things like computer security when they released Win95, 98, and XP. It wasn’t until after XP was released that they woke up to the fact that computer security was a big deal, despite a number of highly qualified individuals telling them that they needed to worry about it. 95 and 98, you can understand, since when those OSs were developed, the internet wasn’t on too many people’s radar. XP, OTOH, was an entirely different matter. They should have been much better prepared when they put that out. Every company, in every industry makes that sort of mistake, sooner or later.
Just to be clear, Tuckerfan, I passed that on without passing judgment on their judgment. That said I have not been aware of hooligans unplugging cars from the charging stations that have been extant. So I am a bit agnostic about how big of an issue that may be. Israel will go first in a big way and I know that Israeli youth are as obnoxious as any others. We’ll find that much out there.
And more to the issue of clarity: when you say “estimates have battery technology being, at best, 10 years away from where it needs to be” you are talking about the “where” being batteries large enough to go 300 miles plus on a single charge at a reasonable price point, yes? Because of course where exactly they need to be is an issue of some debate.
One thing is clear: gas prices over the next decade are likely to be moderately high or higher, the current drop notwithstanding, unless demand stays decreased. And if the world’s economy does recover soon then few have any expectation other than a rapid rise in gas prices as demand picks back up and beyond. Battery technology is likely to continue to improve and significant decreases in price are expected with economies of scale in production alone. Minimally plug-in cars with batteries large enough to handle most daily commutes with range extenders that run of off liquid fuel (be it diesel, biodiesel, ethanol, gas, blends, or designer biofuels; be it with an ICE, a Stirling engine, or whatever) are very close to being a cost-effective option at merely moderately high gas prices and do everything that any other car can do. Those cars alone have the potential to decrease gas demand significantly. Especially if they become the vehicle of choice as emerging economies adopt the car culture (yes China, I’m talking to you.)
Remember the Tylenol poisonings? For decades nobody thought about sealing packages against tampering, then one idiot got the “bright idea” that he could poison lots of people by putting products on store shelves (copycat criminals soon followed) and now just about everything is sealed up. If locks aren’t installed on charging stations, sooner or later people will start yanking cords just for sport.
This issue can be quibbled with endlessly. I’m going by what one of the ecoblogs stated in regards to Tesla. Ideally, the price point for the batteries would be on par with a conventional ICE, could be quickly recharged, and give a vehicle a 300 (or better) range without the use of expensive materials in the construction. (Note that I’m allowing for some flexibility here, the cost of things like carbon fibre could drop to that of steel/aluminum, or battery capacity could increase such that its practical to fit them a conventionally engineered car.)
We really don’t know what gas prices are going to be doing in the coming years, though I think we should bet on them being higher. Folks are pushing the development of alternative fuels pretty hard, and if the stories about thermal depolymerization are right about the costs, then we might see a long term stabilization in fuel prices even if demand goes up. I would hope that under such conditions we’d continue to push for more fuel efficient vehicles at the very least.
Getting China to adopt hybrid vehicle technology enmasse is going to be difficult, I think. They don’t have the necessary support infrastructure to deal with the complexities of hybrid vehicles, and its going to be difficult for them to build that up, while they’re building up the rest of their country. Right now, one of the big problems they’re having is that people are building unauthorized electrical plants (these plants have little to no pollution controls on them) and while technically illegal, nobody in China is willing to do much about it because they need the power. In that kind of environment, I can see the Chinese government not paying much attention to a factory pumping out bunches of conventionally powered vehicles for domestic consumption, instead of producing all hybrid vehicles.
China was supposed to running all their cars off of CNG after a certain date, but I haven’t heard any more about that, so I don’t know what’s happened with that policy.
If hybrid cars were more advanced, I wonder if this might actually be less of a problem precisely because there is less existing infrastructure - less to replace?
In the case of not having entrenched things like gas stations, yes. In the case of things like parts distribution channels, trained service personnel, etc. no.
Why not just “blue sky” it a bit with concurrent technologies being developed? Run out of juice - no problem, key your destination into the computer, a car that is nearby and going to the same neighbourhood stops, pugs in atuomatically and then takes over control using its own batteries and driving system to contro; your car.
Unrealistic now? SUre - but in 10 or 15 years, as control systems develop, electricity for cars close to free (instead you pay a charge based on distance travelled) - then who knows?
There will be heaps of developments in areas we haven’t even thought of - one thing that will be required, (an yes I am US bashing) is the removal of the current “incentives” in the US for big vehicles - start a punitive tax regime for higher capacity vehicles, CBD vehicle charging and some of the punitive systems that other countries use and see how quickly people start to switch to electric as a REAL option.
The US, has a real opportunity to lead - they are both the wealthiest nation and also the most “spread out” making cars the most convenient option - it will take policy initiatives to change this, and as the US changes so will the rest of the world follow.
Remember that the electric part of the car requires much less maintenance than the ICE part, really virtually none. That’s one of the attractions of pure BEVs. I do not see why you think that building a parts and service infrastructure for EREVs or PHEV is more daunting than building one for other cars.
I never heard that bit about China planning to go to all CNG but their current plan includes this:
China has large lithium reserves and some of the world’s largest battery makers (CBAK, BYD, ABAT, among others).
Of course, you have the problem that the added load will significantly shorten the range. Then, you have to work out how to pay the person for the use of energy. Assuming, of course, that this doesn’t violate warranties, or that an electric vehicle is capable of towing. Of course, there’s always the possibility that someone could use this as a method of robbing people.
Wonder how long it’ll be after these new computer controlled wonders appear on the roads that someone starts writing malware for them?
But a large vehicle doesn’t have to be a fuel hog. There are a number of features which can be added for low costs, to a conventionally powered vehicle to improve fuel economy. Additionally, many of the materials used in building an electric car can be used in conventionally powered cars to boost fuel economy. A large car is comfortable when you have to spend long periods of time in one. Not to mention, people like me, who have to haul large things (in my case a big, rolling toolbox) can’t exactly fit that into a small car, and shipping it via UPS or other service is expensive and time consuming.
Putting everyone in small cars also transfers costs to corporations like Home Depot and Lowes, because they have to buy more trucks and hire more drivers to deliver goods that people purchase because they don’t have a pickup to haul the stuff they’ve bought back home. This raises the costs of goods for everyone and makes life difficult for people who live outside the delivery area.
We have a very narrow window of opportunity. Projections have China being the largest consumer of cars within a decade or so.
The servicing of a new ICE powered car is not exactly onerous, and much of it, is covered under the warranty. Some dealers even including oil changes in the purchase price of the car.
Building infrastructure for a PHEV/BEV is more complicated because so little of it exists. Lets take a not too terribly unrealistic scenerio for a moment. Scientists have recently discovered a fungus which produces small amounts of diesel (there is also a tree which produces almost pure kerosene, BTW) and lets say that there’s a genetic engineering breakthrough which allows them to easily splice the genes for producing the fuel into other plants, say a fast growing grass. The harvesting of the grass and the extraction of the fuel can be done with conventional machinery, with a few minor modifications, if any. The resultant fuel can then be processed and delivered with existing infrastructure. If the total cost of the fuel is relatively cheap (say it compares with current fuel costs where oil is less than $50 a barrel) then there’s not much incentive to push beyond this. You have some environmental issues to put pressure on things to change, and its conceivable that demand could stress supply to the point where prices start to rise, but who knows how long that will take?
With an electric car infrastructure, taking any level of technology (be it ultracapacitors, current technology, or what have you), you’ve got to build recharging stations, provide power to those energy stations, train personnel, develop proceedures, sell the public on the technology, and build up the electrical grid at some point. That’s a lot more work than dealing with a relatively simple fuel change for ICEs. Note that you’ll have similar problems with using an uncommon fuel like hydrogen or CNG. In those cases, however, it could be argued that they’d be slightly cheaper since there is an already existing infrastructure for much of what would be needed, it would only have to be expanded. I’d imagine that a gas pump which provides CNG is cheaper than a recharging unit for an electric car.
In a place like China, its a bit more daunting of a task. Lots of guys learn about engines tinkering with small engines on lawn motors and the like. This guy can then make a living repairing all kinds of conventional ICEs, since the principles remain the same. With simple tools, he can make replacement parts using whatever he happens to have handy. The vehicle may never run as well as it did when it was new, but at least it can still serve a purpose. Cuba is an excellent model of how this works, with cars from the 1950s still on the road, being powered by a variety of jerry rigged means.
With a high tech electric vehicle, there’s not much the self taught mechanic can do to fix the thing. He may not even be able to bypass bad components to keep the vehicle running. This can turn an electric vehicle with a minor problem into a lawn ornament (especially if its going to be operated in an area without good roads, which will put a lot of wear and tear on the vehicle). Nor is this a “hypothetical” problem, as things like this have already occured. Aid agencies have shown up in a distressed area and given the locals a modern tractor built in a developed nation. Their reasons for doing this are well meant. The tractor is better than anything that could be found locally, and enables the locals to grow more food than they otherwise be able to, which allows them to sell the surplus and improve the local economy. All goes well until the tractor breaks. Then, nobody in the villiage can fix the tractor because they either lack the skills or the means to get the necessary parts. Had they been provided with a domestically produced tractor, they’d have been better off, since they could have been able to get parts for the thing when it broke.
Well, they said that somewhere around 10 years ago, so its entirely possible that they’ve abandoned the idea.
I should also add that in remote places, its often alot easier to truck fuel in, than it is to supply electricity. Sooner or later, solar cells will reach a point where its practical to put them up in remote places to provide lots of power, so that folks in those areas can have electric vehicles. We’re not there yet, and I won’t hazard a guess as to when that will happen. Until then, however, you can expect people to continue to use ICEs in those areas, because they can get the fuel cheaper and easier than they can other methods (be it by truck, or by making alcohol or other fuel).
Nor is this strictly a Third World problem. In places like Alaska, large stretches of the state get their fuel delivered by air! Solar cells aren’t exactly practical in place like that.
Tuckerfan, once again, no one, not even the most ardent BEV supporter, is trying to claim that pure BEVs are the answer for all situations. This particular location so remote as to be off-grid scenario is really a bit bizarre as an argument against the technology having wide enough usefulness as to be a meaningful part of the solution.
Meanwhile Better Place keeps chugging along.
The concept will be fully tested any way, my doubtfulness as to its likelihood of broad success notwithstanding.
Its not that uncommon in places like China and India, however. Those areas will be the growth areas for automobiles in the coming years, not the US and Europe.
Off grid entirely? Common in wide areas of China or India? I don’t think so. Oh some individual homes do not have electricity and some infrastructure would need to be created for those individuals just like it would need to be built for apartment dwellers, but there is a grid. Generating capacity needs to be created but from China’s POV any way those are domestic jobs and domestic resources (as opposed to resources from Russia or the ME). China is, for example, doubling its wind power capacity every year. And there are many cutting edge solar power companies in China as well. Distributed power generation may even actually make sense there. And the biggest growth for auto purchases in those countries are not likely in those rural districts with little electricity but in urban centers.
BTW your cite doesn’t really seem to be an environmentalist expressing doubts: it is a complaint that Agassi is being bit less than completely accurate in aspects of his sales pitch. Which might be true but is no critique of the concept.
Yes. Common. China and India are both desperately trying to keep up with the demand for electricity. In the case of China this means allowing people to build unregulated plants, because they see the economic opportunities provided by having power generation as being greater than concern for the environment.
One that is not unified, like it is in the US.
In many areas that do have power, its either unreliable (available for only a few hours a day) or limited to industry and not available for residential dwellings.
Right now, China’s industrial demands for energy are taking priority over residential needs. Its the factory owners putting up many of the powerplants, not the government, and they generally don’t have to make concessions to things like supplying power for the locals to use, since folks in China are so desperate for work, they’re willing to put up with almost anything to get a job.
Not necessarily. China’s cities are already so crammed with cars that its difficult to drive, and simply having a vehicle in a remote part of the country can be a powerful economic boost for an individual, much the same way cellphones are in some parts of the world.
Its a critique of the concept as expressed by Agassi. If he flames out, its going to be that much harder for someone else to come along and make it work, simply because people will be so mistrustful of the idea.
Actually China is investing mightily in building a charging infrastructure.
Many experts believe that EVs are very likely to predominate in China. (And India too.)
You are correct that China does not currently have a unified grid, and that they indeed desire to have one, yet a unified grid is not a prerequisite nor even desirable. Distributed power generation may be a better fit for China after all.
And as to your claim that being totally off-grid is common in China, it just isn’t so.
They have problems keeping up with increasing demand and in quality control and regulation but you exaggerate greatly.
Also, no, it wasn’t “a critique of the concept as expressed by Agassi”; it was a critique of how Agassi expressed the concept. Quite a different thing.
Which is not to say that there is not a lot to critique about his concept. As we have covered I am also a bit skeptical of its being appropriate for all but a few of the American market segments and do not see pure BEV becoming the dominant car form here any time soon. And yes, if Project Better Place flames out, then it would be very hard to get anyone else to invest that kind of money in a similar project again. It is a big bet.
But as the full article shows, they won’t have many electric cars.
That’s a drop in the bucket compared to the number of cars they have now, and we’ve yet to see if such a thing can work on a wide scale.
If by “many” you mean the head of Johnson Controls, who is not exactly what one would call unbiased on the matter of electric vehicles.
From your own cite, we get this tidbit:
I note that your cite fails to define what it means by “access to electricity.” Technically, if I have five minutes of electricity, I have “access” to it. Some would even say that if there was a power line running by your house, you have “access,” if your house isn’t wired up, yet, simply because there’s a line which you can, at some point, connect up to. China’s not exactly known for their honesty when it comes to many things.
Not really.
Very big.
Here’s a question for you, one that I don’t know the answer to: In the case of hybrid vehicles does one have operate them periodically in order to keep the batteries in order? I’ve heard an account of a guy who bought a Prius, and had to have someone start the car periodically, while he was away on a business trip. Kind of inconvenient if you have figure out who’s going to take care of your car if you’re going to be out of town for a couple of days.