# How old are the oldest accurate murder statistics? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 6, 2013, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-old-are-the-oldest-accurate-murder-statistics/668150 "2013-09-06T03:53:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![sweeteviljesus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/898d66/32.png) [@sweeteviljesus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sweeteviljesus)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2013, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-old-are-the-oldest-accurate-murder-statistics/668150/1 "2013-09-06T03:53:26Z")
I have often heard that the murder rate in the ancient world, e.g. Rome, is estimated to be 30 times higher that what we currently have in the U.S. How does the present day compare with the 19th century? I would expect older cities like New York and San Francisco to have high rates due to the relative anonymity of city life combined with less sophisticated policing and crime detection techniques. When did we start gathering accurate data? Thanks, Rob ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2013, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-old-are-the-oldest-accurate-murder-statistics/668150/2 "2013-09-06T04:24:34Z")
In general social science statistics from before 1930 often involve some extrapolation and guesswork. Manuel Eisner has assembled a long run US homicide time series from ~1700 to the present day. It follows a long term declining pattern. > **[Long Term Trends in Homicide Rates - Marginal REVOLUTION](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/06/long-term-trend-in-homicide-rates.html)** > > Here is a graph of American homicide rates, the earlier results should be taken with a grain of salt of course, but the trend is clear. N.B. These rates are per 100,000. The American data is consistent with European data. Here is Table 2 from Manuel... More recently, homicide rates have generally declined since 1991: [United States Crime Rates 1960 t0 2019](http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm) Kevin Drum thinks declining lead in the environment explains the latter. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2013, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-old-are-the-oldest-accurate-murder-statistics/668150/3 "2013-09-06T06:46:50Z")
Another book making an argument about this subject is this one: > **[The Better Angels of Our Nature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature)** > > The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined is a 2011 book by Steven Pinker, in which the author argues that violence in the world has declined both in the long run and in the short run and suggests explanations as to why this has occurred. The book uses data simply documenting declining violence across time and geography. This paints a picture of massive declines in the violence of all forms, from war, to improved treatment of children. He highlights the role of nation-state mo Th... ---
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2013, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-old-are-the-oldest-accurate-murder-statistics/668150/4 "2013-09-06T16:03:50Z")
You hav to wonder, too, in the days before autopsies how much murder - especially domestic violence - went unreported? The guy on some farm would report “my wife got sick and died, she’s buried out in the side lawn beside grandpa and grandma.” A week later, who’s going to contradict him? Who could tell shaken baby from crib death or childhood sickness? ---
**Author:** ![janeslogin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/df788c/32.png) [@janeslogin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/janeslogin)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2013, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-old-are-the-oldest-accurate-murder-statistics/668150/5 "2013-09-06T22:11:17Z")
I thought Genesis 4 was widely held to be accurate. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-old-are-the-oldest-accurate-murder-statistics/668150/6 "2013-09-07T11:03:08Z")
I haven’t read it myself, but I’ve come across references to Lawrence Stone’s _Interpersonal Violence in English Society 1300-1980_ a couple of times. [Here](http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/arts/history/postgraduate/ma_studies/mamodules/hi971/topics/interpersonal/), you’ll find a few books and articles listed, all dealing with interpersonal violence in early modern Europe. I realize this is probably not super-duper-helpful, since I haven’t read the books and articles myself, and therefore can’t provice a summary, but perhaps it’s a step in the right direciton… ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2013, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-old-are-the-oldest-accurate-murder-statistics/668150/7 "2013-09-07T13:00:06Z")
> [@janeslogin](#): > > I thought Genesis 4 was widely held to be accurate. Of course. 25% of all people were murder victims. And 25% were murderers.