When the word “drone” encompasses hand held hobby quadcopters with cameras and missile-armed air machines the size of a DC-9, it becomes a useless word.
This is why I said that most people don’t really know how it’s going to play out, and possibly not even the militaries themselves.
I presume that all the parties are looking at the war in Ukraine with interest.
If Taiwan and Allies can build better anti-ship drones / missiles than the Chinese can defend their ships against, it’s going to be difficult to conquer.
However, if the Chinese can develop better drones / missiles they can do a lot more damage to Taiwan’s infrastructure and defense capabilities.
I don’t know the relative importance of aircraft carriers vs swarms of drones / missiles.
The key value of drones, particularly in the Ukraine and nearby areas of Russia, is they are cheap, expendable, and hard to catch with regular air assets. I saw a video of someone talking about fibre optic cannisters that attach to a drone, and unwind a spool of fine fibre optic wire for control to avoid jamming. Apparenly the battlefields of Ukraine are crisscrossed with these “use once” fibres.
I’ll believe anything Russian defense related when I see it in action and successful.
They’ve got a 70 year pattern of secrecy, propaganda, overblown specs and general bullshit that makes me automatically skeptical when it comes to any new “super” weapons announced by Moscow of any sort.
As far as naval drone warfare is concerned, especially with China, I’d wonder if the ranges involved would make any drones tend toward being the size of antiship missiles and therefore vulnerable to anti aircraft/anti missile defenses.
In other words, if we look at the Ukrainian war, what seems to have made drones viable is that the technology to make cheap, small, and easily guided drones became readily available. That doesn’t scale upward without effectively becoming antiship missiles.
The whole plot of Le Carre’s The Russia House is [Spoiler] a whistleblower who provides a sheaf of documents proving the USSR’s great missile defense does not have close to the claimed accuracy. But the end result is, without any way to verify, it’s business as usual. Assume worst case, they do work.
I don’t think you’ve been following naval drone warfare in Ukraine. We’re not talking about flying drones. We’re talking unmanned suicide boats.
Ukraine’s Magura Naval Drones: Black Sea Equalizers | Proceedings - September 2025 Vol. 151/9/1,471
In February 2024, Magura V5s became the first naval drones to sink an enemy warship in combat, destroying the Russian Tarantul-III–class guided-missile corvette Ivanovets and the 4,000-ton Ropucha-class (Project 775) tank landing ship Tsezar Kunikov . Within the first year of becoming public, Magura V5 USVs operating in one-way attack mode reportedly destroyed eight Russian warships and damaged six more, causing more than $500 million in damages to the Russian fleet. Models of the Magura have since been displayed at numerous Western defense exhibitions, offering a glimpse into their capabilities.
The USVs are challenging to detect, incorporating a low-profile V-shaped carbon-fiber hull with a waterline height of only 1.6 feet and a low thermal signature. They are powered by waterjet propulsion and have a range of more than 400 nautical miles, a cruising speed of roughly 22 knots, and top speed of 42 knots, although burst speeds of up to 54 knots have been claimed. The USVs are thought to possess GPS, inertial, and first-person-view camera guidance via two electro-optic cameras, and Mesh radio with aerial repeater or satellite communications to provide jam-resistant multichannel communication. Payload capacity is up to 705 pounds, and impact fuses to trigger explosives can typically be seen extending from the bow. Alternative payloads can include machine guns, antitank guided missiles, or even surface-to-air missiles (SAMs).
A multipurpose Magura V6 design exists, and a larger V7 variant was made public in spring 2025. Armed with AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles, Magura V7 drones shot down two Russian Su-30 strike fighters in May. It displaces 1.3 tons light and up to 3.7 tons fully loaded. At 24 feet long, the Magura V7 features significantly enhanced seakeeping capabilities and an operational range of around 800 nm. It can operate with a maximum payload of around 1,400 pounds and is frequently pictured carrying two SAMs on launch rails.
Intersting article on this topic - may be paywalled:
Basically, serious concerns about corruption and loyalty and dedication in the Chinese forces, particularly the rocket forces, even 10 years after Xi first started tackling the problem.
Corruption is a real problem throughout China. But oddly enough many of the “corruption” purges that occurred as Xi was settling in were aimed at proteges of Xi’s competitors. While a much smaller percentage of his own proteges were purged. Odd that.
Those same two possibilities exist today. He’s purging what he sees as people loyal to power centers other than himself, OR he’s purging people who’re unreliable crooks regardless of their in-service politics.
It’s a good question how effective these would be or if China can come up with effective countermeasures.
Neat trick!
You gotta admit it saves a lot of lives versus the more traditional forms of suicide. 
That’s just the kind of thinking-outside-the-box that the Pentagon needs these days!
Fundamentally, isn’t a drone boat just a torpedo?
Except that, on the one hand, the torpedo is submerged and higher-performance, but on the other hand, the drone boat is a lot cheaper.
Kinda sorta.
I’d say a drone boat vs a torpedo is like the difference between a missile and a cruise missile. More range, less speed, much cheaper for the range.
And the “much cheaper” part affords the possibility of swarming to saturate the target’s defensive systems. If you can present more incomers than they can possibly prosecute, some will get through for sure. Even if, taken individually, each would have no chance against the defensive systems.
That’s how a quantitative difference turns into a qualitative difference.
Joking aside, manned suicide boats and suicide torpedoes have been used in the past.
I would also say that the drone can go much, much farther and remain in communication with, and under control of, the launching entity.
Drone boats are also not just explosive. Some have been armed with SAMs or quadcopter drones. Also have cameras for surveillance.