How powerful is the Chinese Military?

[Dissonance]

Related to how powerful the Chinese military is, the US Navy cancelled the Constellation-class frigate and is only going to complete the first two.

Navy Cancels Constellation-class Frigate Program - USNI News

For a breakdown on how exactly the USN has reached the point where it is now leaning on a nearly four-decade old destroyer design in the Arleigh Burke class to fill the role intended for smaller and cheaper designs because it hasn’t come up with a small surface combatant design that hasn’t turned into a failure in those four decades, Perun has a video on that. Because of course he does.

(Another) U.S. Shipbuilding Disaster - The Constellation Class & U.S. Fleet Modernisation

[TokyoBayer]

@Babale

The issue is that China claims that Taiwan is a rightful part of China, and they lack de facto control over Taiwan, which is to someone like Xi Jinping a national embarrassment of the highest order.

Among other things, Xi Jinxing focuses things such as expanding China’s power as a means of distracting the masses from any dissatisfaction with the CCP and domestic issues.

But once you make a claim XYZ, you’ve forced your own hand. You can’t back off or you will appear weak.

@Babale

You’d hope they’d not be so stupid as to repeat the Empire of Japan’s disastrous mistake.

There is a huge debate whether the United States would have entered the Pacific War even if they weren’t directly attacked.

The debate would be a hijack, so let’s not go there. However, Japan believed once they started the way, they needed to remove the threat from the US.

If the States were to have entered the war regardless, then it was better for Japan to have chosen the time and place for the attack. Had Japan gone after the British and Dutch colonies and left the US and the Philippines alone, but then had the US and Japan wound up going to war, it would have been much, much harder for Japan.

A lot of scenarios have China placing a quarantine on Taiwan or a blockade and anticipating that Taiwan surrenders before the US comes to Taiwan’s aid.

But the problem is that the US may get involved anyway. Of course, they may not.

Of China invades and the US enters anyway, China would certainly be much better off attacking America first. But it’s a dangerous gamble because they wouldn’t know what the US would have done.

Japan considers any forceful steps by China to subdue Taiwan as a threat to its sovereignty because China would control the shipping lanes to Japan for oil and other resource. They may get in and if they do, what will the US do?

The problem is no one knows what may happen.

It’s these kind of unknowns that drive leaders crazy

[LSLGuy]

@TokyoBayer

It’s these kind of unknowns that drive leaders crazy

I’d rather say

It’s these kind of unknowns that drive responsible leaders crazy

But for megalomaniacs and narcissists in leadership positions, their generals and admirals and advisors might worry about this stuff, but they are unperturbed. For they can do no wrong.

Lucky us to live at a time when both countries have non-responsible leaders. Yeah, some luck.

[Dissonance]

Regarding the continuing evolution of naval drones, apparently the first combat use of an underwater drone happened yesterday with the sinking at anchor of another Kilo-class submarine by Ukraine:

Russia Loses Submarine to Ukrainian Underwater Drone in Unprecedented Attack

[TokyoBayer]

The US is getting into the inexpensive drone systems.

Navy launches suicide drone from ship at sea for first time

The U.S. Navy launched a one-way attack drone this week from a littoral combat ship, marking the first time a suicide drone was deployed from a U.S. vessel at sea.

A Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System drone, known as a LUCAS drone, was launched from the flight deck of the USS Santa Barbara, an Independence-class littoral combat ship currently operating in the Arabian Gulf.

LUCAS drones draw their basic design from a captured Iranian Shahed drone and are manufactured by U.S.-based SpektreWorks. No-frills and hardy, they can be launched from a variety of different platforms including catapults and can easily deploy in swarms over long ranges.

Looking around online,estimated unit costs are around $35,000.

With all the parties in a potential China vs. Taiwan, China vs. Taiwan and the US, China vs. Taiwan, the US, and Japan, etc., all looking at various inexpensive drones, I don’t know who will have the advantage.

[Der_Trihs]

@Johanna

That’s the sort of thing they call “exception that proves (i.e. challenges) the rule.”

Nitpik: It doesn’t challenge the rule, it demonstrates that the rule exists. You can’t have an exception to a rule, unless the rule exists. The saying likely originated in ancient Rome, where Cicero used that argument to demonstrate that “barbarians” were by default allowed to become citizens because certain specific groups were excluded.

Cicero was defending one Bilbo. (No relation to Frodo.) Bilbo was a non-Roman who was accused of having been illegally granted Roman citizenship. The prosecutor argued that treaties with some non-Roman peoples explicitly prohibited them from becoming Roman citizens. The treaty with Bilbo’s homeboys had no such clause, but the prosecutor suggested one should be inferred.

Nonsense, said Cicero. “Quod si exceptio facit ne liceat, ubi non sit exceptum …” Oops, I keep forgetting how rusty folks are on subjunctives. Cicero said, if you prohibit something in certain cases, you imply that the rest of the time it’s permitted. To put it another way, the explicit statement of an exception proves that a rule to the contrary prevails otherwise.

(I probably wouldn’t have mentioned it if there wasn’t a Straight Dope column on the issue)

[md-2000]

@Der_Trihs

(I probably wouldn’t have mentioned it if there wasn’t a Straight Dope column on the issue)

I’ve learned my one thing for the day, and this early!

[Chefguy]

It’s more powerful than in the past, when malnutrition was a huge issue. Today’s Chinese army is well-fed, as opposed to the North Korean army, which suffers from chronic malnutrition.

[Dissonance]

@TokyoBayer

With all the parties in a potential China vs. Taiwan, China vs. Taiwan and the US, China vs. Taiwan, the US, and Japan, etc., all looking at various inexpensive drones, I don’t know who will have the advantage.

It’s a brave new world, there’s also going to be the factor of who has absorbed the lessons of drone warfare properly and how they integrate lessons doctrinally. Ukraine and Russia are the ones with the most firsthand experience with drones in modern warfare now. And when it comes to navalised drones, that experience has been Ukraine on the dealing end and Russia being on the receiving end.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

A old paraphrase of Cicero, taken a little bit further:

In a democracy, what is not prohibited is permitted.
In a dictatorship, what is not prohibited is compulsory.

[TokyoBayer]

One of the big unknowns is how well the Taiwanese military is learning the lessons as well.

The popular belief on this board is that the plucky Taiwanese will be another Ukraine but I’ve got real concern about their military capabilities.

One of my best Taiwanese friends served as a junior officer in the 90s for his conscription period and is really critical of the Taiwanese army. I don’t know how much things have changed since then.

The question concerning military power is relative to the potentential enemies.

[Johanna]

@Elendil_s_Heir

In a democracy, what is not prohibited is permitted.
In a dictatorship, what is not prohibited is compulsory.

T. H. White took that as the motto for an ant farm imaged as the original proto-Fascist society in The Sword in the Stone.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

Aha, thanks - didn’t know that!