# How serious is gerrymandering in the US if at all? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 13, 2017, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060 "2017-03-13T03:56:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/21 "2017-03-14T04:50:50Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > Explain how the manner in which districts are drawn specifically makes it harder for third parties to arise. Because those lines are drawn to maximize the chance that a specific party will win, and the choices of where to draw the lines are being made by members of two specific parties. > [@](#): > > I think the reality is more simple, while first past the post and single member districts _dissuade_ third parties in Westminster systems like Canada and Britain (which both, despite having more minor party involvement than the United States, have largely always been ruled by one of two major parties of their day), in a _Presidential_ first past the post single member district system, that dissuasion is far, far stronger. Maybe, but what you’re describing only exists in Nebraska and Maine. Interestingly, the 2016 election was the first time one of these state split their electoral votes, though no third-party congressional candidate came close to winning. For states that don’t stage presidential elections by district, gerrymandering is irrelevant because the state borders don’t change. Hence I’m okay with regarding gerrymandering as irrelevant to the presidential election, and I’m not clear what distinction between Westminster vs presidential you’re trying to establish. > [@](#): > > The goal of any national political party would be to win not only Congress but also the Presidency, and there’s no coalitions in the Presidency, one candidate must win. Fracturing votes on your “side of the political spectrum” just makes it more likely the other side wins in a landslide in the electoral college even if they’re only to get about 40% of the popular vote. Fracturing from both sides would just lead to the House deciding every Presidential election, which likely would enshrine the motivation to have two parties as much if not moreso than the current Presidential election norm. Sure, a political party is going to want to get the presidency _and_ congress, but the people drawing district lines can really only influence the elections for the latter. I seriously doubt “fracturing” in an issue to them. > [@](#): > > If you’re going to coalesce into two coalitions for the purposes of Presidential elections Yeah… I don’t care. The Presidential elections are outside the scope of the gerrymandering issue, except for the minor influence of Nebraska’s and Maine’s district systems. > [@](#): > > Absent any actual mechanistic explanation as to how gerrymandering inhibits third parties, I’ll conclude that claim is without merit. And you would not be remiss in doing so, but I maintain my view has merit. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/22 "2017-03-14T05:04:06Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > I think the biggest difference is the primary system, which allows more local variation within a party. Now that _is_ interesting and I admit a factor I’d not considered. If American congressional districts didn’t have primaries, would the local competition and contention force the creation of local third parties, which would start to coalesce into statewide and possible national third parties? If a sufficiently ambitious local Democrat (say) realized he had little chance of convincing the local Democratic machine to dump their incumbent Democrat congressman, could he be moved to form (or join) a third party and hope to address enough discontent among local Democrat voters to convince to vote for him in the general? As it is, the existing primary mechanism looks somewhat self-destructive to me: 1. The people who are going to bother to vote in a congressional primary are likely to include a disproportionate number of those who have more extreme views than the general population, therefore 2. If an incumbent gets dumped, it will probably be for someone who appeals to those extreme views, hence 3. Over time, the party’s congressional candidates get more and more extreme. Of course, that opinion is informed by the Tea Party successes of 2010 and such. ---
**Author:** ![Jelf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9f8e36/32.png) [@Jelf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jelf)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/23 "2017-03-14T12:40:04Z")
Here is a Google + GIS map I produced that shows all congressional districts. > **[GISsurfer General Purpose Web Map and GIS Viewer | Surf GIS DATA](https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer.php?t=h&congress=all%3fgmap4=true)** > > GISsurfer lets you surf a nearly endless amount of GIS data. Click a layer in the GIS server's table of contents and that data appears on the map. If you click “Map Tips” in the upper left corner that you will see a web page with several large buttons. Please click the button labeled “Bizarre District Maps.” You now see 21 map links. Each map link is for a different state and highlights one congressional district with an extremely weird shape. @OP, if you believe that these super weird shapes were not the result of gerrymandering then what alternate explanation do you offer? ---
**Author:** ![igor\_frankensteen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/839c29/32.png) [@igor\_frankensteen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/igor_frankensteen)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/24 "2017-03-14T14:51:35Z")
The main reason for few so-called third parties in the US, is that as soon as one of them gets big enough to have any effect, the two main parties shift their platform to start stealing supporters away from them. The only reason why the Tea Party still has any significant members at all, is that they sold out to the Republicans, while keeping their official name. ---
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/25 "2017-03-14T15:41:03Z")
Gerrymandering is not that influential in American politics. The Senate can not be gerrymandered, nor can the presidential election. The House races can but the effect is very small. Political scientists Jowei Chen, of the University of Michigan, and Jonathan Rodden, of Stanford University, did a study that estimated that gerrymandering costs Democrats about six to eight seats in the House. That is 1.6% of the entire House. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/26 "2017-03-14T16:26:43Z")
Six to eight seats is significant when you’re figuring out majorities. That’s a turnaround of 12 to 16 votes, or between 2.23 and 2.97%, which makes things quite a bit closer currently in terms of elections in the House. Funny how it always seems to favor Republicans, huh? ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/27 "2017-03-14T17:14:43Z")
In the [2012 Congressional election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012), the Republicans won 234 seats vs. Democrats 201. But if you look at the popular vote (i.e. number of voters who voted for each party’s candidate), the Democrats won by 1.2%. At least some of the discrepancy is likely due to gerrymandering. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/28 "2017-03-14T17:17:08Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Six to eight seats is significant when you’re figuring out majorities. That’s a turnaround of 12 to 16 votes, or between 2.23 and 2.97%, which makes things quite a bit closer currently in terms of elections in the House. The House currently has 237 Republicans and 193 Democrats. How would six or eight (or 12 or 16) seats change the majority? > **[115th United States Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/115th_United_States_Congress)** > > The 115th United States Congress was a meeting of the legislative branch of the United States of America federal government, composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives. It met in Washington, D.C., from January 3, 2017, to January 3, 2019, during the final weeks of Barack Obama's presidency and the first two years of Donald Trump's presidency. The seats in the House were apportioned based on the 2010 United States census. > The Republican Party retained their majority in both the Ho... ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/29 "2017-03-14T17:20:50Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Imagine a law was passed banning all political parties other than the Republicans and Democrats. Problematic? > > Gerrymandering has this effect without the need for a law. No, that’s not caused by Gerrymandering. But it _is_ caused by the same thing that allows Gerrymandering to happen: the use of single-member district plurality voting system. Which means if the Green Party had 20% support in every district, it still wouldn’t get _any_ seats in Congress. Many (most?) other countries include at least some sort of proportional representation system, so that minority parties have some representation in the legislature. E.g. Japan’s congress has 35 members from the Japan Communist Party, which wouldn’t win a plurality in any district. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/30 "2017-03-14T17:46:50Z")
> [@igor\_frankensteen](#): > > I would suggest that there is no reason to support the idea that “like-minded areas” should be grouped together because they are so, nor is there any valid reason to group economic units together. Isn’t the Voting Rights Act the reason minorities are grouped into districts together? ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/31 "2017-03-14T17:51:33Z")
Gerrymandering isn’t that big a problem in Congress, but it is a **major** disaster at the state level. The drawing of assembly district boundaries within a state can effectively disenfranchise half the population. Look at North Carolina. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/32 "2017-03-14T18:21:34Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > Gerrymandering isn’t that big a problem in Congress, but it is a **major** disaster at the state level. The drawing of assembly district boundaries within a state can effectively disenfranchise half the population. Look at North Carolina. Does North Carolina have any sort of a referendum mechanism in which half the voters could alter the state government and force redistricting to be done by judges or a non-partisan commission? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/33 "2017-03-14T18:43:25Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Does North Carolina have any sort of a referendum mechanism in which half the voters could alter the state government and force redistricting to be done by judges or a non-partisan commission? On a quick look, it seems not really. At least not without the state government’s permission: > [@](#): > > North Carolina does not allow any form of citizen initiated ballot measures, so all ballot measures must be referred by the legislature. > **[North Carolina 2016 ballot measures](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina_2016_ballot_measures)** > > Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/34 "2017-03-14T20:42:57Z")
> [@davidmich](#): > > How serious is gerrymandering in the US if at all? > > Hi > I don’t have any reliable information of whether gerrymandering is in fact a problem. I’d really welcome some hard facts on the matter. IO look forward to your feedback. > > [http://nypost.com/2017/03/12/arnold-schwarzenegger-says-he-wont-run-for-senate/](http://nypost.com/2017/03/12/arnold-schwarzenegger-says-he-wont-run-for-senate/) > > “Gerrymandering has completely broken our political system and I believe my best platform to help repair it is from the outside, by campaigning for independent redistricting commissions. Thank you for your kind messages and all of the support and I hope you’ll join me in my battle against gerrymandering with the same enthusiasm,” he added." (Arnold Schwarzenegger) Either Schwarzenegger doesn’t understand how the votes are actually counted for U.S. Senate seats, doesn’t know what “gerrymandering” actually is, or he is using “gerrymandering” as an excuse not to run against the incumbent U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein. ---
**Author:** ![BeeGee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b5a626/32.png) [@BeeGee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeeGee)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/35 "2017-03-14T21:51:23Z")
> [@Nobody](#): > > [Court says Texas congressional districts gerrymandered to hurt minorities](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/court-says-texas-congressional-districts-gerrymandered-to-hurt-minorities/2017/03/11/97b6ab0a-0685-11e7-b9fa-ed727b644a0b_story.html) > > I would call that a problem. They split Austin REAL good. > **[Texas Senators, Representatives, and Congressional District Maps - GovTrack.us](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/TX)** > > Find your U.S. Congress senators and representative in Texas using a map. I live in the 25th. The 21st is two blocks south of me. Four blocks to the north, you’re in the 10th. A straight shot to work (7 miles) means crossing through four different districts and crossing lines 7 times. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2017, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/36 "2017-03-14T22:20:51Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > The House currently has 237 Republicans and 193 Democrats. How would six or eight (or 12 or 16) seats change the majority? > > [115th United States Congress - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/115th_United_States_Congress) In a couple of years, it could make a helluva lot of difference. But for the present, it would make it even more difficult for the Orange Orangutan to get support for his policies, which he’s already having trouble with. You seem to think that the Republicans are an all-out solid voting bloc, but they’re not anymore, especially when they don’t have a clear adversary like Obama. Now it’s on them to get things done, and they’re out of excuses (at least with independents…Republicans could turn the country into a fascist dictatorship and a substantial part of their base would suck it right up without complaint and praising them all the way.) ---
**Author:** ![HumbleThinker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/5daacb/32.png) [@HumbleThinker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HumbleThinker)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/37 "2017-03-15T10:44:25Z")
> [@davidmich](#): > > Hi > I don’t have any reliable information of whether gerrymandering is in fact a problem. I’d really welcome some hard facts on the matter. IO look forward to your feedback. > > [http://nypost.com/2017/03/12/arnold-schwarzenegger-says-he-wont-run-for-senate/](http://nypost.com/2017/03/12/arnold-schwarzenegger-says-he-wont-run-for-senate/) > > “Gerrymandering has completely broken our political system and I believe my best platform to help repair it is from the outside, by campaigning for independent redistricting commissions. Thank you for your kind messages and all of the support and I hope you’ll join me in my battle against gerrymandering with the same enthusiasm,” he added." (Arnold Schwarzenegger) I think gerrymandering is a huge problem in many if not all states in the Union. It divides areas of states into nonsensical shapes with the clear purpose of increasing the majority party’s power at the time of a census in future elections. Some cities in my state are cut up into four or more districts. That said, there is an issue with how to actually ensure that minority power is not minimized. On the one hand, if you spread them out in districts, they are not in the majority in any district and thus would effectively have no power while we continue our zero-sum political climate. On the other hand, if you pack them into a few districts, you give them a majority in a few districts while giving them even less voice in others. Given how we are demographically segregating in many parts of the country, even drawing sensible districts can lead to the latter result. This may arguably be a false dichotomy, but these are the two prevailing thoughts right now among politicians as far as I understand. The latter position was largely used in response to laws against the former position IIRC. This is why some argue for at-large districts instead of strictly using our current system. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/38 "2017-03-15T15:18:22Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Either Schwarzenegger doesn’t understand how the votes are actually counted for U.S. Senate seats, doesn’t know what “gerrymandering” actually is, or he is using “gerrymandering” as an excuse not to run against the incumbent U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein. You’re conflating two separate issues. He was contemplating a run for the Senate, and later said that instead he’d campaign for redistricting reform. He never said that gerrymandering affects Senate races. In fact, considering that he was involved with the very same thing when governor, I’d expect that he has a pretty clear concept of it. ---
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/39 "2017-03-15T16:18:55Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > In the [2012 Congressional election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012), the Republicans won 234 seats vs. Democrats 201. But if you look at the popular vote (i.e. number of voters who voted for each party’s candidate), the Democrats won by 1.2%. At least some of the discrepancy is likely due to gerrymandering. Very little of it. Democrats tend to be highly clustered in urban areas whereas Republicans are spread out more. Thus the only way to prevent it would be to purposely draw districts to be competitive which would be illegal under the voting rights act. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2017, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060/40 "2017-03-15T17:41:00Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > In a couple of years, it could make a helluva lot of difference. But for the present, it would make it even more difficult for the Orange Orangutan to get support for his policies, which he’s already having trouble with. > > You seem to think that the Republicans are an all-out solid voting bloc, but they’re not anymore, especially when they don’t have a clear adversary like Obama. Now it’s on them to get things done, and they’re out of excuses (at least with independents…Republicans could turn the country into a fascist dictatorship and a substantial part of their base would suck it right up without complaint and praising them all the way.) Were you troubled, at all, during the 111th Congress, when the margins were 256-178 in favor of the Democrats? Or is this concern new, because Trump? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-serious-is-gerrymandering-in-the-us-if-at-all/782060.md?page=3)