# How should Kerry react to the October Surprise
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [August 19, 2004, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585 "2004-08-19T18:12:11Z")
**Posts on this page:** 13
**Page:** 2
### Author:  [@lissener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lissener)
#### Post date: [August 21, 2004, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/21 "2004-08-21T03:31:34Z")
> [@ArchiveGuy](#):
>
> [Salon](http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2004/08/20/galbraith_bush_carter/index.html) has a good article on how Bush is beginning to resemble Carter, who the Republicans were also expecting might pull a “surprise” re: the hostages, though any political gain from such a move would be small-to-nil.
Yeah but the engineered surprise in that case was Reagan’s; this kind of thing helps repubs more than it does dems.
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [August 21, 2004, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/22 "2004-08-21T20:54:25Z")
> [@blowero](#):
>
> ???
You asked about the acronym for The War Against Terror.
> [@](#):
>
> One wouldn’t have thought Saddam’s capture would have made a blip in the polls…Yet it _did_ make a blip.
A “blip” is a few points that don’t last. One would have expected that, and it did happen, and would happen if Osama is captured.
> [@](#):
>
> Where did I use the word “stupidity”?
That’s what I thought you meant by “people will gobble it up like candy”.
> [@](#):
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> Huh? How could one be “fooled” and “defoolable”? If the latter is true, the former must be false. I’m not getting your meaning.
Serves me right for getting cute in an attempt to maintain parallel grammatical structure, and avoid saying the inappropriate “unfoolable”. I meant that there seem to be few people left who are both still fooled and yet still capable of wising up in the remaining time.
> [@](#):
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> And yes, I have no doubt that there are plenty of people out there who _still_ believe that Saddam collaborated with OBL to plot 9/11, and that we _found_ the WMDs.
I have no doubt that there will still be, even after Bush is confronted by the question in an unweaselable situation in the debates. They’re going to be entertaining.
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### Author:  [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)
#### Post date: [August 22, 2004, 7:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/23 "2004-08-22T07:26:49Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> You asked about the acronym for The War Against Terror.
Ah! That’s cute.
> [@](#):
>
> A “blip” is a few points that don’t last. One would have expected that, and it did happen, and would happen if Osama is captured.
I shouldn’t mention this, because I sense I’m not gonna get anywhere with you on this subject, but you specifically said, and I quote, “Won’t happen again”, in reference to the Osama blip. And just now, you said it _would_ happen again. I’m sure you didn’t mean to contradict yourself, did you?
> [@](#):
>
> That’s what I thought you meant by “people will gobble it up like candy”.
I don’t know that believing lies necessarily makes one stupid. That’s _your_ word, not mine.
> [@](#):
>
> Serves me right for getting cute in an attempt to maintain parallel grammatical structure, and avoid saying the inappropriate “unfoolable”. I meant that there seem to be few people left who are both still fooled and yet still capable of wising up in the remaining time.
Ah ha! I get it now. Isn’t that pretty much what _I_ said though?
> [@](#):
>
> Blowero:
> If Bush can still be as high in the polls as he is, after so many statements he made about Iraq turned out to be utterly false, and given the fact that he is still spreading those falsehoods to this day, I sadly would have to conclude that that would make very little difference. He would just double-talk his way out of it, like he always does, and people will gobble it up like candy.
See? I’m saying that if people believe all this stuff, they aren’t likely to wise up in the remaining time. We’re saying the same thing, right?
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### Author:  [@Shade](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shade)
#### Post date: [August 22, 2004, 9:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/24 "2004-08-22T09:52:17Z")
Well, I don’t know about _reacting_ to it, but if he truly thought it was likely to happen he should predict it a week before 🆒😃 If he gives a couple of big speeches saying “I expect Bin Laden will be captured in the next two weeks. Can that timing be coincidence? If so, how do I know it in advance? It just goes to show that Bush cares more about re-election than the saftey of the American people, if he’s willing to let the man loose for his own political gain,” it can take the wind out of Bush’s sails.
Of course, he’d have to think this was a likely possibility and tone it done a bit so he doesn’t look bad if it doesn’t happen. And I don’t think OBL really is on ice anyway.
OTOH, could someone fake a capture convincingly? Find a dead bearded arab with the right sort of face and do a spot of photoshopping, trumptet it, and plant a couple of news articles about a lookalike trying to take over from OBL just in case.
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### Author:  [@Seven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seven)
#### Post date: [August 22, 2004, 10:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/25 "2004-08-22T10:42:08Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> 1. Bush would have to explain why he said _it didn’t matter_ if Osama were captured.
Why? He never bothered to explain how it was first “dead or alive” and then later “he’s not really on our radar”
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### Author:  [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)
#### Post date: [August 22, 2004, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/26 "2004-08-22T12:10:39Z")
[Kerry Impersonation]
This is great news, and President Bush is to be congratulated for finally capturing the former al-Qaeda leader. And I want to say to the American people, if you are content with this modest rate of success, then say so with your vote. But if you want someone who will lead the world in swiftly capturing the new wave of terrorist leaders who have taken Bin Laden’s place, make me your Commander in Chief.
[/Kerry Impersonation]
Talking points:
[ul]
[li] When you go it alone, it takes a long time.[/li][li] Unfortunately, while we were mired down in Bagdad, al-Qaeda was regrouping all over the world.[/li][li] Capturing Bin Laden now is like finding the dead bee that stung you.[/li][li] Kerry’s military experience will make him a superior Commander in Chief[/li][/ul]
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [August 22, 2004, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/27 "2004-08-22T13:54:16Z")
> [@blowero](#):
>
> you specifically said, and I quote, “Won’t happen again”, in reference to the Osama blip. And just now, you said it _would_ happen again. I’m sure you didn’t mean to contradict yourself, did you?
I meant that Bush shouldn’t expect any lasting effect, the way he expected it last time, and it will be slight and short-lived even by comparison.
> [@](#):
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> I don’t know that believing lies necessarily makes one stupid. That’s _your_ word, not mine.
:shrug: How about “gullible”, then? Still gotta be careful about those broad brushes, though.
> [@](#):
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> We’re saying the same thing, right?
Essentially.
**Seven** , Bush never got pressed to explain himself on that, since he has only given interviews or even allowed press-conference questions to “tame” journalists. He won’t have that protection in the debates.
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### Author:  [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)
#### Post date: [August 23, 2004, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/28 "2004-08-23T18:00:13Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> I meant that Bush shouldn’t expect any lasting effect, the way he expected it last time, and it will be slight and short-lived even by comparison.
Still doesn’t jibe. If you say “Won’t happen again”, does that not imply that it _did_ happen the first time? And you clearly weren’t talking about Bush’s expectations, as you are claiming now. This is what you said:
> [@](#):
>
> The Saddam capture made a blip in the polls, but not for long, IIRC. Won’t happen again…
Clearly referring to the polls, not to Bush’s expectations - right?
> [@](#):
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> :shrug: How about “gullible”, then?
How about we just stick to what _I_ wrote, and lose the strawmen, huh?
> [@](#):
>
> Still gotta be careful about those broad brushes, though.
Dunno, you still haven’t addressed what _I_ said, only your strawmen.
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [August 23, 2004, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/29 "2004-08-23T18:07:35Z")
There’s no need to be like that, **blowero**. It’s simple English. A poll blip of similar size and duration to the Saddam-capture one “won’t happen again” with a hypothetical Osama capture, IMHO. You’re most certainly welcome to disagree if you like, since I also noted that the capture would happen between now and the election only by happenstance, not because it’s already happened.
Maybe, instead of complaining about being misunderstood or distorted, you’d like to explain yourself how broad a brush you meant to use when you said “people will gobble it up like candy” - which, despite your pouty contention, I did already address if you’ll scroll up a little.
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### Author:  [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)
#### Post date: [August 23, 2004, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/30 "2004-08-23T20:54:22Z")
> [@](#):
>
> This is great news, and President Bush is to be congratulated for finally capturing the former al-Qaeda leader. And I want to say to the American people, if you are content with this modest rate of success, then say so with your vote. But if you want someone who will lead the world in swiftly capturing the new wave of terrorist leaders who have taken Bin Laden’s place, make me your Commander in Chief.
I have to disagree. There are several bad points made here. A skilled candidate has to anticipate how his opponent will counter-attack anything he says.
**"This is great news, and President Bush is to be congratulated for finally capturing the former al-Qaeda leader."**
Kerry shouldn’t mention Bush at all if possible - either positively or negatively. Positive praise, no matter how faint, will lifted be out of context and rerun by the Bush campaign. Negative comments will also be held against him as partisan attacks. This is why most candidates go out of their way to never mention their opponent by name.
What Kerry should do is emphasize as much as possible that the armed forces (presumedly) were the ones who deserve credit. It’ll be popular and Bush can’t dispute it without looking like he’s disparaging the military or trying to steal their glory.
**"And I want to say to the American people, if you are content with this modest rate of success, then say so with your vote."**
Kerry might as well endorse Bush as use this line. Bush will respond, _“My opponent said that the people who liked Osama’s capture should vote for me. I think that’s a great idea. And in return I think anyone who didn’t want Osama captured to vote for my opponent.”_
Kerry should never say or even imply that capturing bin Laden isn’t a great thing. It would be hugely popular and no candidate would want to be on the other side.
**"But if you want someone who will lead the world in swiftly capturing the new wave of terrorist leaders who have taken Bin Laden’s place, make me your Commander in Chief."**
First, there’d be the standard _“It’s too bad my opponent couldn’t resist using this moment that should have brought all Americans together to make a naked partisan plea for votes.”_ Always bad.
But going beyond that, you’ll get: _“Senator Kerry said himself that a ‘new wave of terrorist leaders’ is waiting to take bin Laden’s place. Tragically we know this is true. So the American people need to ask themselves if now is the time to take a chance on changing from a leader who has once again proven his ability to confront and defeat this terrorist leaders to a untried candidate.”_
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### Author:  [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)
#### Post date: [August 23, 2004, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/31 "2004-08-23T21:11:48Z")
Wow. Excellent analysis, Little Nemo. You’ve convinced me.
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### Author:  [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)
#### Post date: [August 23, 2004, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/32 "2004-08-23T21:13:39Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> There’s no need to be like that, **blowero**. It’s simple English. A poll blip of similar size and duration to the Saddam-capture one “won’t happen again” with a hypothetical Osama capture, IMHO.
I’m not being like _anything_. You contradicted yourself, and doggedly refuse to admit it. After saying, “won’t happen again”, you said:
> [@](#):
>
> A “blip” is a few points that don’t last. One would have expected that, and it did happen, and **would happen** if Osama is captured.
You DO understand that “won’t happen” and “would happen” are mutually-contradictory statements, right? See, the problem with you changing your arguments whenever it’s convenient, is that it makes it near impossible to discuss anything with you, since you’ll just change your story any time you want.
> [@](#):
>
> Maybe, instead of complaining about being misunderstood or distorted, you’d like to explain yourself how broad a brush you meant to use when you said “people will gobble it up like candy” - which, despite your pouty contention, I did already address if you’ll scroll up a little.
I hardly think it’s “pouty” to ask you to refrain from attributing strawman arguments to me. I could just as easily ask YOU why you think the voters are “stupid”, since you already acknowledged that we’re in agreement on this issue.
> [@](#):
>
> Quote:
> We’re saying the same thing, right?
>
> Essentially.
You said it right there - you agree with me. So, how about it ElvisL1ves, why do you think the American voters are so stupid? I think you’re over-generalizing. Stop saying they’re stupid. How dare you call the American voters idiots. I can’t believe that you think _every single_ last voter in America is an idiotic, stupid moron. I just can’t believe you would say that. Why do you say such things?
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### Author:  [@initech](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/initech)
#### Post date: [August 24, 2004, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-kerry-react-to-the-october-surprise/260585/33 "2004-08-24T05:19:13Z")
I’d suggest that a fun strategy could be for Kerry to _command_ Bush to capture Osama. Right now.
Talking points:
- It can’t wait for the new administration
- The threat posed by having OBL at large is too immediate to delay prioritizing his capture
If Bush succeeds, he looks like Kerry goaded him into finally doing his job. If he fails, well, he fails.
Just an evil thought I had…
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