# How should/will Ireland vote on the new EU treaty? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 8, 2008, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253 "2008-06-08T19:18:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Rodgers01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b19c9b/32.png) [@Rodgers01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rodgers01)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2008, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/1 "2008-06-08T19:18:47Z")
Looks like Ireland will be voting this week on whether or not to approve the new EU treaty (the follow up to the failed “constitution” in 2005). A little bit of background reading [here](http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1025009/EU-vote-close-No-group-gain-ground-Ireland.html). I’m not terribly informed on the matter, but from what I’ve read, I hope Ireland votes a resounding NO to the treaty, if for no other reason than sheer contrariness at the other member states that waved the treaty through without consulting their electorates. Seems like the democratic deficit they talk about in the EU is widening. Am I wrong? How should/will Ireland vote this week? ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2008, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/2 "2008-06-08T22:15:59Z")
[QUOTE=Rodgers01] How should/will Ireland vote this week? [/QUOTE] Of the people ,by the people, for the people. However I am not confident that if the peoples of the Republic vote no , that sometime in the future the referendum will be called again under new name ,not accepting the will of the populace. Declan ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2008, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/3 "2008-06-09T15:38:51Z")
I live in Ireland, I reckon there’s gonna be a No but for no good reason. It is bizarre that a country of 4.2 million can decide how 500 million people are governed. We voted no on the Nice Treaty a number of years ago and our government just pushed through another referendum for the right answer so even if we vote no I’m sure they’ll figure a way of getting it through. The major parties here except for Sinn Féin support the treaty, most of the opposition to it comes from shady groups. However, the Yes campaigners haven’t given any good reason to vote yes other than using scare tactics, nor have they been able to explain precisely what a yes vote entails and how that is superior to a no vote. The no campaign has on its side the status quo, things are okay now so why change them? One compelling no argument I saw in the city here was “Don’t vote yes to a treaty you don’t understand.” France and the Nederlands voted against the new EU constitution but primarily as a protest against their governments. I don’t think there was any great opposition to the body of the constitution in those countries. I started a thread about it the other week. [Euro-Dopers - What do you think of the Lisbon Treaty? - In My Humble Opinion - Straight Dope Message Board](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=468845) ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2008, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/4 "2008-06-09T15:46:26Z")
Bush is on his way to Europe this morning. I’m sure he would advise Ireland that if it doesn’t stop pursuing weapons of mass destruction, the US will unilateraly revoke its EU membership. I think he favors the Irish Sunnis over the Irish Shiites. McCain, in distancing himself from Bush, favors it the other way around. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2008, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/5 "2008-06-09T16:06:01Z")
[QUOTE=Liberal] Bush is on his way to Europe this morning. I’m sure he would advise Ireland that if it doesn’t stop pursuing weapons of mass destruction, the US will unilateraly revoke its EU membership. I think he favors the Irish Sunnis over the Irish Shiites. McCain, in distancing himself from Bush, favors it the other way around. [/QUOTE] 😕 ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2008, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/6 "2008-06-09T16:26:37Z")
[http://www.rte.ie/news/features/lisbontreaty/](http://www.rte.ie/news/features/lisbontreaty/) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2008, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/7 "2008-06-09T18:29:09Z")
[QUOTE=Declan] Of the people ,by the people, for the people. However I am not confident that if the peoples of the Republic vote no , that sometime in the future the referendum will be called again under new name ,not accepting the will of the populace. Declan [/QUOTE] Well, why not? How often is a referendum expected or intended to settle the question posed once and for all time? ---
**Author:** ![yojimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yojimbo/32/232_2.png) [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2008, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/8 "2008-06-09T18:45:31Z")
I’ll be voting NO. I’ve been very unimpressed with the Yes campaign. It has basically been Vote Yes as Europe has been good to us and you don’t want to fuck it up. No depth, no real analysis just scare tactics. The No campaign has it share of scare tactics as well but at least they are arguing for the status quo not a major change. Two countries have already voted no to the constitution and it looked like a lot more would follow so the pols went back changed a few words and called it a Treaty rather than a constitution. This meant that all except Ireland could just run it through their parliaments. The Irish politicians would have loved to do this but they are forced into a referendum due to the nature of our constitution. I was at a debate in my job a few weeks ago attended by Gay Mitchell a major Irish MEP for Fine Geal (Irish political party) during the debate he said that we should be glad that Germany doesn’t have a referendum as this was the same country that voted for the 3rd Reich :eek: Voting No means that nothing changes and the pols have to go back and resolve the issues that a lot of people have. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2008, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/9 "2008-06-09T19:11:51Z")
My sister and her husband just moved to Ireland (I can’t WAIT to go visit!!) and at least the folks who work with my brother-in-law seem to think Ireland will vote no. Nearly everyone he’s talked to (gods know how representative they are though since they are all chiropractors and such) say they will be voting no anyway. What SHOULD Ireland do? Gods know…I have no idea myself. I guess they should do what they think is best and screw what anyone else thinks…that would be my advice. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2008, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/10 "2008-06-10T07:35:52Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Well, why not? How often is a referendum expected or intended to settle the question posed once and for all time? [/QUOTE] Perferably at least a decade in between referendums, just a few years wont resolve any doubts that the individual voters might have. I believe that Europe will have a more confederation like govt, but the way they are going about it after the nice treaty is slimy. It would be far simpler for them to have stated outright that this is when Ireland gets to buy into the new Europe, say no and this is not garunteed when the Irish peoples do want in. Another thing that I dont like about the treaty is that there is no mechanism for seceding currently planned. Lets face it , a bail out provision would go along way towards giving the populace more control over their destiney. This is not the USA with a homegenous population but a hybrid confederation that looks alot more like the Canadian model with at least fifteen separate diverse cultures. People get paranoid over the G7 (with china tagging along like someones little brother) meetings , and then they pull this facade of a referendum, at least the Germans had the decency to send in tanks when they screwed someone over. Bottom line , at least if the populace votes yes and gets a bad deal, then its been done with the consent of the population , vote no and it gets in through the backdoor , then you have effectively screwed Europeans from getting a more unified govt for the next twenty or more years. Declan ---
**Author:** ![PaulParkhead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@PaulParkhead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PaulParkhead)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2008, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/11 "2008-06-10T12:58:44Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Well, why not? How often is a referendum expected or intended to settle the question posed once and for all time? [/QUOTE] The problem is that governments in Europe have a tendency to simply keep posing identical, or nearly identical, questions to the population until the ignorant proles finally get it “right”. Some European people including, I imagine, in Ireland, resent this behaviour somewhat 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2008, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/12 "2008-06-10T13:25:21Z")
Europe would do very well to learn from the USA: ‘We the people…’ ---
**Author:** ![kellner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/c2a13f/32.png) [@kellner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kellner)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2008, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/13 "2008-06-10T13:43:34Z")
[QUOTE=Declan] Another thing that I dont like about the treaty is that there is no mechanism for seceding currently planned. Lets face it , a bail out provision would go along way towards giving the populace more control over their destiney. This is not the USA with a homegenous population but a hybrid confederation that looks alot more like the Canadian model with at least fifteen separate diverse cultures. [/QUOTE] If you read the [consolidated Treaty on European Union [PDF]](http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:C:2008:115:0013:0045:EN:PDF) (i.e. incorporating all the amendments made by the Treaty of Lisbon) you will find the following: > [@](#): > > ``` > Article 50 > > ``` > > 1. > > ``` > Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own > > ``` > > constitutional requirements. > > 1. > > ``` > A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. > > ``` > > In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude > an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the > framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance > with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on > behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the > European Parliament. > > 1. > > ``` > The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the > > ``` > > withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless > the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend > this period. > > 1. > > ``` > For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council > > ``` > > representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European > Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. > A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the > Functioning of the European Union. > > 1. > > ``` > If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the > > ``` > > procedure referred to in Article 49. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2008, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/14 "2008-06-10T16:12:40Z")
[QUOTE=kellner] If you read the [consolidated Treaty on European Union [PDF]](http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:C:2008:115:0013:0045:EN:PDF) (i.e. incorporating all the amendments made by the Treaty of Lisbon) you will find the following: [/QUOTE] Well loookie there, when I checked out the irish website a couple of days ago, after one of the dopers posted it. It stated that there was currently no method of seccession. Must have been a work in progress. Thanks Declan ---
**Author:** ![yojimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yojimbo/32/232_2.png) [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2008, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/15 "2008-06-10T16:31:23Z")
[QUOTE=Quartz] Europe would do very well to learn from the USA: ‘We the people…’ [/QUOTE] Not Europe. Each individual nation decided on wether to have a ref or not. That’s not a call the European Parliament can make. Irish politicans didn’t have a choice. Yours did and the decided that a ref wasn’t needed or wanted i.e. they knew they couldn’t get it past the people. ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2008, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/16 "2008-06-10T16:41:36Z")
By the way, do these treaties always get passed by a referendum in every member state? Did the Maastricht treaty really get passed that way? It was a pretty big deal, so I wonder exactly how it got done. It sort of “made” the EU in my mind. Regardless, Europe needs to decide how far it’s going to go. You can only go as far as the lowest common denominator as far as integration, and there’s a hell of a lot of denominators these days. I think I’d be pro-Europe, because I believe the eventual benefits from a United Europe would outweigh the sovereignty that you’d have to cede. I don’t think doing it the shady way would be that bad. People will judge the treaty based on how it affects them, not on how it was passed. There will be a bit of ill will, for sure, but that might not matter. The point is though, that you guys are going to have to decide where you want to go. And if the answer to that question is “More Federal” then at some point you’re going to have to cede some important power. Maybe you don’t want to go all the way to USA levels of federal-ness. Maybe you’d just like what you have now, but just a bit tidied up, and solidified. That seems like that is what the latest treaty is meant to do, but Europe’s ever-increasing Mission creep is built-in to those expectations. I think a nice long break from the advance would do wonders. It’d let people relax a bit and get used to the status quo of the EU for a while. The EU is ever-changing. Maybe it needs to sit still for a while? But there needs to be a way for the populace to say, “Look we just need to think for a bit…It’s not to say we don’t like the EU, or that we want to get rid of it, just get off our backs for a minute” Rejecting the treaty doesn’t really allow that kind of answer. There is no way to approve of the status quo. A sort of integration interim could be used to sort of get a feeling of how people feel about the EU and where exactly its boundaries are. The idea of where its boundaries are needs to be explored completely and understood completely. This is obviously going to change, but it needs to be understood at least in the meantime. If the consensus is more federalism then things need to change. Make it possible to back out at any stage, but only offer complete secession as an answer. I realize this is a hard ball tactic, but you can’t continue to make it allowing the Denmark / Sweden / UK’s to pick and choose what they want. This of course has to be coupled with higher democratic accountability. Let there be higher accountability to those who decide what the course will be, yet at the same time make their choices a bit more binding. But the only way this sort of approach would be successful is if the EU can decide as a group that it wants to go more federal. If it can do that, and actually agree on some kind of model, then this would be the way to do it, I think. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2008, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/17 "2008-06-10T16:45:46Z")
[QUOTE=yojimbo] Not Europe. Each individual nation decided on wether to have a ref or not. That’s not a call the European Parliament can make. Irish politicans didn’t have a choice. Yours did and the decided that a ref wasn’t needed or wanted i.e. they knew they couldn’t get it past the people. [/QUOTE] Were you replying to a different post? I don’t see how yours follows on from mine. ---
**Author:** ![yojimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yojimbo/32/232_2.png) [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2008, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/18 "2008-06-10T17:19:34Z")
[QUOTE=Quartz] Were you replying to a different post? I don’t see how yours follows on from mine. [/QUOTE] Well if your post wasn’t so cryptic it may have been easier. You seemed to be saying that Europe should listen to it’s people more. > [@](#): > > Europe would do very well to learn from the USA: ‘We the people…’ Since this is a thread about a referendum about a EU treaty I assumed you were talking about that and how the people aren’t actually been directly asked, except for in Ireland. ---
**Author:** ![yojimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yojimbo/32/232_2.png) [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2008, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/19 "2008-06-10T17:23:02Z")
[QUOTE=Merkwurdigliebe] By the way, do these treaties always get passed by a referendum in every member state? Did the Maastricht treaty really get passed that way? It was a pretty big deal, so I wonder exactly how it got done. It sort of “made” the EU in my mind. [/QUOTE] Depends on the country. The UK for example does not like ref’s at all and very rarely holds them. They generally just push the treaties through parliament. Ireland has been said before is forced to have one due to the nature of its constitution. ---
**Author:** ![williambaskerville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f14d63/32.png) [@williambaskerville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/williambaskerville)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2008, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253/20 "2008-06-10T18:19:43Z")
[QUOTE=yojimbo] Depends on the country. The UK for example does not like ref’s at all and very rarely holds them. They generally just push the treaties through parliament. Ireland has been said before is forced to have one due to the nature of its constitution. [/QUOTE] And specifically due to a decision of the Irish Supreme Court, the Crotty Judgement [Crotty v An Taoiseach - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crotty_v._An_Taoiseach) . On the OP,should we pass it ? I’ve actually read it from cover to cover :- this puts me ahead of the Irish EU Commissioner, and several Irish cabinet ministers. It contains such stirring constructs as :- Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union shall be amended as follows: (a) throughout the Article, the word “assent” shall be replaced by “consent”, the reference to breach “of principles mentioned in Article 6(1)” shall be replaced by a reference to breach “of the values referred to in Article 1a”, the words “of this Treaty” shall be replaced by “of the Treaties” and the word “Commission” shall be replaced by “European Commission”; (b) at the end of the first sentence of the first subparagraph of paragraph 1, the words “and address appropriate recommendations to that State” shall be deleted; at the end of the last sentence, the words “and, acting in accordance with the same procedure, may call on independent persons to submit within a reasonable time limit a report on the situation in the Member State in question” shall be replaced by “and may address recommendations to it, acting in accordance with the same procedure.”; In other words, it’s a very technical series of amendments to previous EU treaties, and really nothing for anyone to get excited about. It’s probably not perfect, but it will streamline EU administration, assist further expansion, it was agreed by all the existing member states, and it doesn’t do anything significantly evil or stupid.So I’m voting yes. Will it pass ? Depends on turnout. If turnout reaches 60%, I’d expect something around a 55% Yes, 45% No vote. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-should-will-ireland-vote-on-the-new-eu-treaty/452253.md?page=2)