# How well would modern society handle the dinosaur killing meteor if it happened today? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [February 27, 2021, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856 "2021-02-27T00:30:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/241 "2021-03-09T11:37:46Z")
In the period after the winter? I’ve asked and gotten no answers but from what can gather during impact winter lots of water vapor is stored in the heated up stratosphere which cools down as the soot falls out, then dropping out the water. The CO2 would remain causing rapid warming with ice melt. So should be lots of water as the impact winter resolves. Don’t know if making them functional would be possible though. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/242 "2021-03-09T11:46:41Z")
Sure, some debris will make it up as far as the GPS orbits, or even to geosynchronous, but satellites are very small targets in a very big space, and unlike on the ground, almost isn’t good enough: A satellite would be destroyed by any hit, but wouldn’t even notice a bit of debris that missed it by a centimeter. It’d be an extreme fluke if even one satellite got hit, and you’re not going to see two get taken out. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/243 "2021-03-09T12:00:43Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > How many cars in Iceland are diesel, versus the much less platinum-rich petrol ones? > And the Bosch research facility _in Iceland_ , where they can get the details for all this tech from, is where, exactly? > Or are our subsistence sheep farmers going to be supporting a state-of-the-art research facility, as well? Right now quite a few cars and trucks there are diesel over petrol (although that may change within a few decades to EVs and or … fuel cell vehicles). The goal would not be to make as many exploration vehicles as cars anyway. A few will do. Even with a short warning before impact sharing of information needed for survival might occur. The hypothetical (supported by some modeling it seems) was that the region is relatively spared. Have their geothermal power. Have ability to survive the several years of impact winter. No the hypothetical is not that only subsistence level sheep farmers survive. Although indeed the first job is creating new food supplies as the winter abates and the rains fall. Yeah some safety and environmental health standards might need to be relaxed. Ya think that’s going to be politically possible? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/244 "2021-03-09T12:28:38Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > It’d be an extreme fluke if even one satellite got hit, and you’re not going to see two get taken out. Just how little volume of ejecta do you think we’re talking about, here? > [@DSeid](#): > > Even with a short warning before impact sharing of information needed for survival might occur. I’ve been assuming, for the Iceland discussion, a zero-warning scenario. Things change quite a bit if there’s any effort to purposefully stock Iceland up with information (and materials). Although I personally would not choose it, or _any_ island, if I knew in advance a 15km impactor was on its way. > [@DSeid](#): > > No the hypothetical is not that only subsistence level sheep farmers survive. I’m not saying only subsistence sheep farmers will survive the impact. I’m saying in order to _continue_ surviving, _everyone_ will have to become subsistence sheep (or cattle) farmers. > [@DSeid](#): > > Yeah some safety and environmental health standards might need to be relaxed. Ya think that’s going to be politically possible? Politics isn’t the issue. It’s survival. When a cloud of toxic, explosive silane gas wipes out everyone at the tyre recycling plant, “I wish I hadn’t voted for it” isn’t going to be the concern. it’s “Oh, no, we’ve killed a hundred of our tiny population.” Granted, politics is _then_ going to come into it with “… including all those engineers we slaved to keep fed. Why are we building an airship, again?” ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/245 "2021-03-09T13:01:34Z")
Got a brand spanking new carbonaceous chondrite on the ground. Some interesting shots of how pieces turned to dust when they strike a hard surface. That class of asteroid is basically just dried mud. > **[Meteorite found in the Cotswolds is the first in the UK for 30 years](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-stunned-as-incredibly-rare-meteorite-is-found-in-the-cotswolds-12240466)** > > The meteorites are the first to be found in the UK since 1991 and the first carbonaceous chondrite meteorites in Britain ever. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/246 "2021-03-09T14:05:33Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > … a zero-warning scenario. Ah. So Romulan (or Martian at least if you know the reference) cloaking/stealth technology! 😀 ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/247 "2021-03-09T14:12:28Z")
I’m familiar with the reference. But no, I’m referring to the fact that we only detect half of these things _after_ they’ve missed us. And of the rest, the _average_ warning time is 14 hours. Of course, that time improves as they get bigger. And improves as our tech gets better. But we’re still well in the “sudden impactor” era. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/248 "2021-03-09T14:59:23Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > we only detect half of these things _after_ they’ve missed us. These things? 15 km wide planet killer rock things? Yeah not seeing ones a hundred meters or so wide coming has happened. Cite that we miss half of the ones even that size though would be appreciated. My understanding is that missing car sized ones makes the news. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/249 "2021-03-09T15:56:58Z")
There haven’t been _any_ 15km ones, missed or not. But there’s nothing about ones of that size that make them unmissable. Especially if they come from our current blindside. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/250 "2021-03-09T16:51:39Z")
So no cite that we even miss half of the football field sized ones? Okay. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/251 "2021-03-09T17:07:19Z")
Sorry, I was replying to the first part of your post and completely skipped the rest. By “these things” I mean near-miss asteroids as a whole that we’ve detected. That should have been obvious from context, I’d think, as a 15km-sized near miss _would_ be world news, detected early or not. But sure, [here’s your cite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_impact_prediction#Effectiveness_of_the_current_system) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/252 "2021-03-09T17:41:53Z")
So looking up a conversation app on line the largest group in that citation, which have more than half detected and rapidly increasing, are a few dozen meters large. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/253 "2021-03-09T17:47:36Z")
Yes, and your point is? _Mine_ is that we miss these things all the time. We could miss a bigger one just the same way. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/254 "2021-03-09T18:57:51Z")
That missing ones 25 meters wide, even 100 meters wide, is different than not seeing [Chthon](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2021/03/03/asteroid-apophis-huge-god-of-chaos-rock-will-this-weekend-flyby-earth-but-what-happens-next-time/amp/) let alone one kilometers wide. And that assuming such is not a reasonable assumption. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/255 "2021-03-09T19:05:09Z")
Of course it’s reasonable, given that there’s a giant blind spot in our current detection capability. Doesn’t matter what size it is, if it’s coming at us from sunside, we won’t see it (until we have decent space-borne detection) ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/256 "2021-03-09T20:55:34Z")
As far as large (15km or larger) rocks coming from our blind side (i.e. towards the Sun), those will be discovered at some other point of their orbit when they are not between Earth and the Sun. Actually, probably all of them or that size or larger already have been discovered. Ditto for most that are somewhat smaller. The ones that are only discovered when they zip past us are usually in the 100 meter or smaller range. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/257 "2021-03-09T20:57:35Z")
We haven’t detected all the large (defined as 1km or bigger) ones ([link](https://www.space.com/40239-near-earth-asteroid-detection-space-telescope.html)). The goal is to detect better than 90% of them, since we have a reasonable but not precise idea of how many there are. We’re not to 90% yet. Just in the last couple years, an amateur [found a 1km asteroid](http://spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=56243). We’re still at the stage where amateur astronomers can find massive asteroids by searching random bits of sky. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/258 "2021-03-09T21:18:18Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > We haven’t detected all the large (defined as 1km or bigger) ones ([link](https://www.space.com/40239-near-earth-asteroid-detection-space-telescope.html)). > > The goal is to detect better than 90% of them, since we have a reasonable but not precise idea of how many there are. We’re not to 90% yet. Your link says otherwise. > [@](#): > > … in the 1990s, Congress directed NASA to find 90 percent of the NEOs that are at least 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) in diameter — a mandate the space agency fulfilled in 2010. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/259 "2021-03-09T21:22:11Z")
Oops, you are correct. They amended it to find 90% of NEOs above 140m by 2020, which hasn’t been done yet. But the point still stands that at beyond 90% there are still big ones we are finding and others we may never find. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856/260 "2021-03-10T00:37:51Z")
Certainly agreed that it is a big deal that there may still be 1 km plus ones out there unidentified. And your other citation puts the need to identify the larger number of smaller ones as an even bigger deal, and discusses the belated attempts to address the need - > [@](#): > > A more pressing need is the detection of smaller asteroids that can still cause regional-scale devastation. … > > … A new NASA space telescope called the NEO Surveillance Mission, or NEOSM, could meet that goal in 10 years, but funding has been difficult to secure. Although it could launch as early as 2025, current funding levels would push the mission into at least the late 2020s … None of which however supports the statement that there’s an undetected 15 km wide one would sneak up and slam in with literally “zero-warning”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-well-would-modern-society-handle-the-dinosaur-killing-meteor-if-it-happened-today/933856.md?page=14)