How/when will the US era as superpower end?

Great Debates
41

Another way of looking at things - conflict in the military or economic sphere places a good deal of strain on the societies involved in that conflict. People are subjected to hardships because of the actions of their governments.
Stable, well-integrated societies can bear a great deal of strain if the majority of the population believe that the conflict is justified. As we have already seen US, Chinese, Indian and other societies are capable of generating formidable outbursts of patriotism and xenophobia given sufficient stimulus from external events and government propaganda. The question is, how long can they sustain their ‘enthusiasm’ when things get sticky? Despite much discussion of the ‘wussification’ of America, I find it hard to believe that American society will fracture more easily than that of the rivals in this hypothetical wrestling match.
China is, and will remain for the next 40 years or so, a third-world country struggling to eradicate poverty while suppressing the centrifugal tendencies generated by the enormous differences between its regions. The dictatorship which makes it so threatening is also its weakness inasmuch as it has no real legitimacy in its rule - unless it can maintain improvements in living standards it will have to face a billion citizens demanding accountability, and starting WW3 is not the way to generate prosperity.
India is, without wishing to be disrespectful to its citizens, nothing more than a paper boogy-man conjured by the paranoid. Despite all the talk of high-tech, offshoring and so on, the single biggest determinant of its economy is rainfall-dependent agriculture. One bad monsoon is enough to push India into recession and threaten millions with famine. Two bad monsoons in a row would topple it into depression and risk total breakdown. I can’t see India becoming a serious strategic power within the next couple of generations.
Europe and, as far as I can tell, Japan, have no appetite for world-straddling geopolitical might (tried it, didn’t like it, prefer to stay at home). The rest of the planet is and will remain split into small squabbling polities that won’t be able to mount an effective challenge to any major power.
So over the next half-century or so, I would expect to see the US maintain its leadership position, but with China and the EU rising to the status of secondary powers based mainly on economic clout. This would result in the US being Primus Inter Pares rather than leading by an order of magnitude, but still well clear of the pack.

My having written his is, of course, the cue for Muad’dib to arise and unite Africa, Poland and Patagonia in a global uprising agains capitalism, or for someone to discover a way of making self-aware military nanobots out of Pad Thai, and thereby prove that pontificating on the future is on a par with tap-dancing in a minefield…

42

With a HUMONGOUS BAANG!

Although I obviously hope I am wrong. 'cause if I am not, Einstein’s quote comes to mind – from memory, please correct if I misrecollect.

“World World IV will be fought with stick and stones”

Of course, that sorts of leaves open the question if the extermination of most of humanity as we know it would necessarily be such a bad thing. Me? I often wonder if a new start might be just what the Doctor ordered. Then I ask myself, just who the fuck is this “Doctor” and hope I’ll live to see another day.

Wouldn’t be surprised to learn I’m hardly the only one who feels that way.

One more day.

43

So, China will be willing to shoot itself in the head in 30 years, ehe? And you seriously think they will have a military comparable to the US’s military in 30 years. Do you expect the US to go backwards perhaps?

I’m just not seeing China as a serious threat to the US now or in 30 years…certainly not a military threat. Militarily China is a regional power and I don’t think thats likely to change in only 3 decades…they aren’t even close to the Europeans of today in the ability to project their military globally. And they will catch the US in a mere 30 years?? I think people really don’t understand at a fundamental level just how far ahead the US is militarily…and how rapidly we are moving forward militarily…or just how much the US spends on keeping that advantage (and spends it easily with no strain).

From an economic perspective China is certainly moving up…but they have some hard hurdles to overcome, the most urgent is…will they be able to dump the last vestiges of their communist government and make the complete transition to a capitalist power. IF they can why do folks figure they will WANT to become a global military power? I’d say that they will probably go the Europeans route…a decent defense force and leave it to the US to play global policeman (and foot the bill).

Culturally China is even further behind as far as projecting its culture on the world stage. I’m not even seeing the beginnings of inroads being made on this front. The Europeans are lightyears ahead of the Chinese or Indians on having their culture impact globally.

I think the US when it finally gives up its place as THE global hyperpower and just becomes one of many superpowers will do so because it rots from within, not due to outside forces. It will be because more and more US citizens feel entitled, and in their entitlement sap the strength of the US. That and when the US is no longer the place where immigrants, especially the more talented immigrants, choose as the place they want to come to to live and work. I already see the stirrings of both of these factors at work, though I figure it will be decades yet (or maybe even more) before the rot becomes appearent. And IMO it will be a long, slow decline while the US loses its pre-emminient place economically, technologically, culturally and finally militarily. I don’t see the US sinking too far though…I figure us to become the Britian of today, still a scrappy superpower, still contributing, but no longer THE world power…just one among many.

Or, maybe the US will become re-vitalized and re-energized while the decadent Europeans ( :wink: ) fall back, while the promise of nations like China and India remains largely unfulfilled, and eventually the US will form the core of a larger entity…a United Nations in truth. :stuck_out_tongue: It could happen.

Reguardless I doubt I will be alive to see either case. My guess is that in my lifetime (and I expect to live quite long) the US will still remain THE worlds hyperpower. So, its gona be a problem for my children or maybe theirs.

-XT

44

If the US continues to have Fun 'n Exciting Overseas Adventures In The Middle East™, who knows?

45

Worse comes to worse, we’ll be merging with Mexico sooner then you think. We already have the blueprints for everything. And for the most part, they like us, and we like them. It will be a whole new kind of power to contend with.

46

If, by “welfare,” you’re talking about governmental pork and subsidies to farmers and agro-conglomerates (such as paying people not to grow food), then we are in agreement.

If you actually are referring to programs such as Aid to Families with Dependent Children and Head Start, you’re sadly (intentionally?) mistaken: it’s not the po’ folk who are squandering your tax dollars, it’s the people in expensive suits.

47

China doesn’t need to be in a position to defeat us militarily, they just need to build up a defense that protects itself from the US walking all over them in the event that they lash out ala Japan in the forties when their economic rug was pulled out from under them. I doubt China has any interest in invading any Western nations in the next century or so, but they sure would be happy to be rid of our meddling. And since they hold the purse strings, they have that capability.

48

As far as china goes, I’m still worried about their ‘one child’ program biting them in the tail. You know, Little Emperor Syndrome, many men, one woman. So, yeah, twenty years from now, they may be shooting themselves in the head.

49

I don’t think you understand what I’m getting at. I doubt the US will invade a western country either, though we are certainly powerful enough to defeat any power in the world right now (which isn’t to say we could OCCUPY any nation…just defeat its military). The thing is, China can’t project its military much beyond its borders…and I don’t see that as changing. If your point is merely that China can defend itself from attack, hell, it can do that now…but defending ones country does from attack does not make one a hyperpower or even a military superpower. Its all about force projection…and China don’t got it.

Its not just a matter of money but of technology too. The US is lightyears ahead of China from a military perspective…it would take the Chinese decades to catch up to where the US military is today. This isn’t boastfulness but reality. In addition, at least for the forseeable future, the US SPENDS more on its military in absolute terms than the Chinese do…or probably can. I dont see any indications that this trend is about to abruptly stop, so figure that in the medium term the US will continue to widen the gap between them and everyone else.

Actually, thats true. However, I think that after this bloody nose in Iraq our excitement for 'Fun ‘n Exciting Overseas Adventures In The Middle East™’ will be greatly reduced. Its pretty appearent that the US military can easily defeat any country in the ME from a straightup military engagement. However, occupying one of these countries is a whole other kettle of fish…and I think the US people (and even the Republicans who wanted to attempt projecting the US power in the region) realize that its just not worth the pain. At least I HOPE that most folks see this now.

-XT

50

And here’s our ace in the hole. I know a lot of people who have adopted unwanted Chinese girls. In twenty years, China may have all of our money, but we’ll have all of their women!!!

51

Let the breeding commence!

52

xtisme, not everything has to be about the military. All I’m trying to say is that China will be in a position to pull the rug out from us as a global business competitor. No need for force projection. All they need is a certain amount of defense in case the US reacts as Japan did in the forties. It’s a stupid position for any country to be in, and we’re allowing it.

53

Ummm, because naturally the Chinese government are just itching to cause a global economic meltdown in order to errr… profit from…

No, I still don’t get what you are on about here. I’m no whiz at macroeconomics, but this isn’t like the staff of two rival piazza joints planning to firebomb one another in order to monopolise the local trade. Any downturn in the US economy has substantial negative impact on every other economy. Any downturn in the EU economy has substantial negative impact on every other economy. Any downturn in the Chinese economy has a etc. etc.

I don’t know where the hell people get this concept that the Chinese are all sitting around plotting how to impoverish the US overnight, when a huge number of their own citizens rely on selling stuff to the US (and/or other countries heavily integrated with the US economy) in order to scrape a living. “Hurrah! We have stopped selling stuff to America! Those decadent westerners will soon run out of TVs, clothes, PCs and all the other accoutrements of a consumer society and be reduced to poverty. I will celebrate as the rest of the world economy implodes, everyone cuts back on discretionary spending/investment, all the export-oriented factories close and a hundred million of my fellow citizens are reduced to begging for a living.”
:rolleyes: It’s the same paranod mercantilist scaremongering that has been going on as long as there has been international trade.

And how are China and the US global business competitors exactly? I was under the impression that the US and China have two radically different economies which are complementary, if anything. Or in other words, since the US has lots of capital, technology and resources, while china has little of that but lots of cheap underemployed labour, they would be better of teamiing up than scrapping with one another.

54

The military is one piece in an integrated whole of being THE world superpower/hyperpower. Its one of the reasons the US is the pre-eminient superpower in the world today, and if China has such aspirations they will have to walk that path as well. The US economy is another reason. The US cultural impact (gods help us all) is another. If you read through all I wrote in this thread it wasn’t all about the military…I was just addressing briefly how far China would have to come in order just to get to where the US is today. China will not be THE world superpower without more than a regional/defensive military…because they will be completely unable to project power on the military front, which is a necessary piece in the hyperpower game. Today, NO ONE can project that kind of power anywhere close to the US.

As to the rest I don’t think the Chinese will want to ‘pull the rug’ out from under us…nor do I believe they will be able too without shooting themselves in the head to do it. For the life of me I don’t know where people get the concept that it would be a GOOD idea to fuck over your number one trading partner…or why they figure China could do this without fucking themselves (and everyone else in the world) as well. Sort of cutting off ones arm to spite their face (not sure what that means really but have heard my anglo friends say it so it must make sense :)). I think China’s economy is being grossly overstated.

They have certainly come a long way in a short time…but they are no where close to being in a position to dominate the world through their economy. There are some real stumbling blocks just up their rose strewn road as well…blocks that could see their current house of cards come tumbling down. Some issues I can see is China’s casual disreguard for other nations patents. Their currently split brain economy where they have some ‘capitalist’ type industries and some of the old school communist fief (usually run by the military IIRC). China’s continued stubornness in wanting to keep a tight reign on their currency and not allowing its price to be set by the world market (i.e. their deliberate undervalueing of their currency). China’s unwillingness to trade fair and their practice of product dumping.

We’ll see. I don’t think China or any other nation is going to be responsible for bringing the US reign as THE global superpower to an end. It will come from within not from without…we’ll essentially do it to ourselves. Just MHO of course.

-XT

55

Re: China.

I base this on the June issue of The Atlantic which is only available online to subscribers, so you’ll have to trust me on what I write.

China might not be plotting to crush the U.S. economy, but they are certainly working and building towards being able to handle a U.S. attack on Chinese soil; Moving military installations far inland, out of range of the U.S. naval forces; moving as many installations as possible underground, building nuclear subs. They are fully aware of the capability the U.S. has for force projection, and while they are in no position to compete within the next few decades, they are certainly tyrying to make it harder for the U.S. to use its 24 aircraft carriers effectively against China.

Another thing to consider is the way the Chinese Powers that Be have been moving since Tianamen square. People who make money and increase their standard of living are less likely to become dissidents. The growth of the GDP per capita is very high and while it will take some time where the median income will match that of the U.S. or EU, when they get there, China will start competing for resources. 500 million SUVs in China will do things to the oil market.

I don’t think China is any immediate threat to the U.S. but watch out when they seem to be catching up.