Why look at 2001 as the starting point? During most of that year, the country was in a recession, when job loss would be expected. You’re extrapolating from too short a time period.
Umm, some background may help.
I am employed by a State Government.
Photo Lab Tech, in a specialized field, Mapping & Aerial Photography.
No formal training in photography, all I know I’ve learned “on the job”.
$20,000/year. Pension, 401k.
Liberal Arts Degree.
With the State 10 years.
42 years old.
In reality, the lower wages in India is due to a glut of available manpower. That lowers the salaries and throw in the fact that people are willing to accept low salaries in order to start making a living. In other parts of Asia and Latin America where manufacturing takes place, the desperation that poverty causes is exploited, plain and simple, through local thugs/agents and indirectly by corporations. In both scenarios, there is a degree of “exploitation”. I have used the word in quotation marks due to the baggage it carries. Bottomline, while an educated less desperate worker has some leverage to bargain, the desperate poor worker has none. While I’m strongly for capitalism, I cannot pretend it’s all good. In fact, in many parts of South Asia, workers don’t even get the low wage they are supposed to be paid.
Do you have a secret clearance? That can be useful with getting a job for the state or federal government. It can sometimes be difficult to find a person with a clearance, and it is something that many companies look for. Also, “on the job” experience can be far more useful than formal training. As for some free training, don’t discount the public library. I realize that sounds simplistic, but there is a lot available for those who are willing to put in the time to learn new things, and the best part is that it’s free.
Sadly, whatever job you get will most likely be a step down. This is as unfortunate as it is inevitable. But before long, as you put your hours in faithfully, there is a good chance you will be promoted and will reach your former salary and perhaps surpass it. This outlook may make me appear a bit naive, but I am a hopeless optimist.
I’m not sure now what the problem is. Are you just discontent with your job? I would think working for the government, even the state government, is job security in and of itself. I’ve been a contractor most of my life, and my impression is that unless you screw up royally, or unless you are just unhappy and want to make more money, there isn’t much thats more secure than working for the government. Certainly I don’t see outsourcing as being any kind of problem for you at all…they aren’t going to outsource the government after all. Is your department in danger of being discontinued or something? If so, have you inquired where you will be transfered too? Or if a transfer is possible? Have you considered applying to the federal government instead of the state? IIRC you should be about a GS-5 (or maybe 4) with that salary…you should not have too much trouble I wouldn’t think.
Do you have a clearance? As Psycho Pirate said, a clearance is like gold, especially if you are thinking of becoming a contractor. If you don’t have a clearance, then I’d ask your current boss if you could GET one. Come up with some pretense. Mumble something about ‘homeland security’. A Secret clearance is pretty easy to get and all you need is a sponsor (i.e. your department). Also, again IIRC, its pretty damn easy to get training and additional schooling when you are a government employee, at least with the government crowd I’m used too. They were constantly going off for all manner of training, seminars, boondogles and other such stuff…see what your options are for training classes or maybe extra college courses.
Anyway, could you explain why you are worried about globalization if you are a state government employee? Or why you are worried about your job? That might help in offering some advice to you.
-XT
Let’s try this another way: what are the odds I’m gonna wind up living in a cardboard box when I get too old to work?
BTW–my job is in no immediate danger, & I have no clearance.
Well, the answer to that is how well you save and invest. Don’t count on social security, God knows.
It has nothing to do with globalization or free markets.
And if you’re dead certain that globalization will ruin the US economy, as some in this thread seem to be, then invest in companies that operate in China or India.
Okay, push the window back to 1999. That gives you about a year and a half of solid “boom” to counteract a very brief recession.
In mid-1999, the Census estimates the population was 272,463,000.
In mid-2004, the Census estimates the population was 293,655,000.
So the growth in population was 21,192,000.
The nonfarm payroll survey showed an increase from 128,993,000 employed in 1999 to 131,480,000 in 2004, a gain of 2,487,000 jobs
So for every new job, 8.5 new people were added to the population. That does not appear to be compatible with long-term social stability.
Well, you work for the government. You can work for them as long as you want too, barring a major screw up on your part (or the end of the nation of course 
). You will never get rich, but you won’t ever be in a cardboard box or starving on the street either. Your raises will come at regular intervals, though they will generally be small. Hope for a Democrat in the WH…again, IIRC when Democrats are in the civil servant types generally get bigger raises. You’ll never have to worry about downsizing or having your job outsourced. Oh, from time to time the government makes noises about being more efficient, but I’ve never seen a civil servant lose his/her job for any other reason than pretty gross misconduct. And I’ve seen all manner of lazy, shiftless and generally worthless civil servant types. I could give you loads of anacedotes.
Retirement? Well, you say you have your 401K (I actually thought the government used another retirement system to be honest…I must be behind the times, or the federal employees use a different system). Put the max into it you can. In addition, IIRC, government employees also get some internal retirement benifits (I don’t recall exactly what they are atm but its based on time in service I think). So, even retired you should be fine if you put aside the money now…I seriously doubt the government will default on your retirement benifits.
Have you considered or looked into getting a transfer to another department or maybe a federal government position? Especially in the federal government there are usually more chances to advancement…at least to GS-11 level. After that its more political and the chances for advancement go down sharply. However, there are multiple ‘steps’ for each level, and you can make fairly decent money as a GS employee…and your retirement benifits go with you if you move from state to federal (again, IIRC). Personally, were I in your shoes I’d look at those type options (assuming they are available to you). Even if they aren’t, I think you are worrying over nothing really. You have job security, and your retirement should be ok as long as you watch your money and invest the max into your 401k. Between that and the governments retirement benifits you should be comfortable and cardboard box/dumpster diving free.
-XT
It isn’t globalization itself that is a threat - the threat is globalization at a time when developing countries hold a huge absolute advantage over the West in terms of underutilized labor.
The vast majority of people in the U.S. make a living by selling their labor. Those are the people who are being hurt by global labor arbitrage. These people do not have money available for investment.
Maybe that’s not your problem, but suppose a guy loses his job because his employer can’t compete with companies that produce overseas. He and his family go on welfare, your taxes go up, and the economy suffers. Or, the government decides it can’t afford to pay him welfare, so he starts stealing to feed his family, or he becomes radicalized and hitchhikes to Washington carrying a can of gasoline and a baseball bat. Are these scenarios better than a policy to restrain the flight of American capital in certain critical situations? So a car costs $300 more for a while. So what?
All these rosy predictions that globalization would lift all boats have not yet come true. Look at what happens within the United States, where capital has always been free to move. If you walk through inner-city Detroit, you see that when the capital leaves, the place falls apart. Mobile capital has been great for the national economy, because goods are produced where labor costs are cheaper, but it’s been bad for Detroit. The whole country is now like Detroit was in about 1975. The trouble is, when the factories are gone, you won’t be able to follow them to Atlanta or wherever. You’ll be stuck here.
I have no easy answers. Sure, some people will get rich off overseas investments. But I will claim that globalization is going to hurt the large majority of Americans who have to work for a living.
As stated, I work for a State, not Federal, Government.
Yes, I realize that. Thats why I tried to make my statements as generic as possible. Afaik, working for the state and federal government are very similar as far as the aspects I touched on (job security, retirement, etc). If I’m wrong about them I appologize…I am not very familiar with state government employees. Mainly I’ve worked at the federal level as a contractor.
I’ll withdraw though from the advice giving…maybe someone else wants to pick up and run with it.
-XT
You’ve given the best help I’ve had in this thread–my real issue isn’t Globalization, it’s lack of investment.
Open a Roth IRA. They are a great deal because you are allowed to invest money, let it grow over time through compounding interest, and then cash it in without paying taxes on it!
You can open a Roth IRA with a cheap discount brokerage like Ameritrade or any number of others. You are allowed to contribute $4,000 per year. Put the money in the IRA in index funds. They aren’t actively managed, and just track indexes like small cap stocks, bonds or foreign stocks.
Invest as much as you can save. You don’t need $4,000 to get an IRA, you can open it with $10 if you like. Put in as much as you can. Don’t worry about ups and downs in the market. Keep fully invested at all times.
Since you seem worried about the state of the US market because of globalization, I would suggest putting 25-40% of your money in an international index fund.
I thought of suggesting this as well. However, he claims to already be contributing to a 401K…and his annual salary is $20,000. Not a whole lot of extra funds for a Roth I don’t think unless he’s really living close to the bone. Were I to choose between a Roth and a 401K (in his situation, and assuming that there is some kind of matching going on), I would lean towards maximum contributions to the 401K. YMMV on this of course.
-XT
Max contributions to a 401K is $14,000 per year. I don’t think he’ll be able to get 70% of salary to max it out.
401K’s strength is that they defer taxes and lower income. At 20K per year, Bosda isn’t paying any income taxes at all. (He is paying payroll and other taxes though.) So, the big advantage of 401K’s isn’t really applicable here. I’d say a Roth is a better way to go.
Either way, the important thing is to start saving and invest as much as you can. 401K vs IRA isn’t nearly as important as just picking one and putting in as much money as you can.
Oh, I just realized by “max” you might mean the max amount of employer match of the 401K. This is certainly something to take advantage of. If the employer matches 2% of 401K contributions, than by all means contribute at least 2%. It’s best not to leave money on the table.
Right, sorry about the confusion. He obviously can’t do the maximum allowable contribution as that would be most of his anual salary. But he should do the maximum that his agency matches, as thats ‘free money’. My own company, for example, matches up to 5% dollar for dollar. No idea what his agency does, but mostly likely its something like that. And 5% is certainly affordable.
-XT
If I may make a suggestion: Don’t define yourself or your income by this job. You’ve got a nice, secure, presumably relatively easy job with a retirement plan. That’s your ‘base’. If you want to do something with your life, do it outside that job, and keep the job as your stable base of operations. Start a business on the side. You talked about wanting to become a programmer - do some contract web work. Set up a blog about something you’re interested in, do it professionally, and sell space with BlogAds. Want to paint? Take some art classes.
Too many people define their lives by the job they hold. But you only work 37.5 hours a week. The rest of the time is yours. Learn a new skill - if your problem is that you don’t make enough money, learn one that will pay you something. If your problem is that you don’t feel fulfilled, learn one that satisfies you.
I get into modes some times where I think, “Gah. I’m 42. This is about all there is for me, I guess.” Then other days I realize that, given the way health care is improving, it’s likely that I can stay fit, alert, and productive for at least another 35 years, and maybe much longer. You could go back to college and start a second career if you want. The world’s your oyster.