# How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 29, 2020, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805 "2020-04-29T11:54:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/61 "2020-04-30T23:11:44Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > Would we really be worse off if instead of lifting restrictions we instead locked things down much tighter for a month? Say we’re given time to prepare and a serious concentrated effort is made to make sure everyone has a month of food/medication/toilet paper and then everyone is absolutely locked down for the month of June. No leaving the house at all, not even to take a walk, unless you are in healthcare, a cop, a fire fighter, or work in utilities. If farmers aren’t allowed outside the house, there are going to be a whole lot of people going hungry later in the year; not to mention a whole lot of dead livestock. Small farms may be able to manage with only household members as workers; but we can’t yank our entire overly-consolidated agricultural system over to farms of that size on a month’s notice. There would have to be enough other exceptions that I doubt we could kill it altogether that way. – DSeid, thanks for the more detailed reading, which is cautiously encouraging. I did take the study not as meaning that any particular frequency of reinfection was likely, but just as meaning that re-infection with the same coronavirus is at least possible, and that this is one of many things we can’t take for granted about covid-19 until we have further information; which I’m sure people are in the process of collecting, but this particular information will obviously take some time to collect. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2020, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/62 "2020-04-30T23:20:58Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > You don’t know. No one does. That’s his point. Also - huh? He specifically prefaces by saying “If this virus is like the various other coronaviruses …” _If this virus is like the various other coronaviruses_, like any of the other coronaviruses, _then_ there is no reason to expect a long period of dormancy and later flaring. Yes, no one knows whether or not this virus might not behave like the various other coronaviruses and instead somehow behave like some of the DNA viruses, like the herpes family ones, or HPV. It would be very odd for an RNA virus though. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/63 "2020-05-01T00:02:35Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > For most of the country it really hasn’t hit yet. Texas, since it is mentioned in the OP, has been averaging under 1 new death/d. The idea that it will never get significantly higher than that seems unbelievable to me. Per Worldometer, Texas has had 782 coronavirus deaths, including 33 in the past day. (The next state in alphabetical order is Utah, with only 46 deaths. Maybe you looked at its line by accident?) I think your conclusion is still true: most of the country hasn’t really been hit yet, and even Texas, with nearly 800 deaths, is just getting warmed up. This is another reason why the curve isn’t going to drop sharply here: there isn’t a national lockdown; there are 50 states and DC, and while there aren’t 51 policies wrt the coronavirus because, in the absence of Federal policy, there are at least three informal regional compacts of states that I know of, there are still widely diverging policies amongst the states right now, as Florida, Georgia, Texas, Missouri, and Iowa are getting ready to open up, while most states are saying, “are you fucking kidding me?!” And thousands more will die for that divergence alone. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/64 "2020-05-01T00:19:26Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > This is another reason why the curve isn’t going to drop sharply here: there isn’t a national lockdown And we’re just talking about a play-play lockdown in most states. Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Home Depot have been doing brisk business throughout all of this. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/65 "2020-05-01T00:22:54Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > And we’re just talking about a play-play lockdown in most states. Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Home Depot have been doing brisk business throughout all of this. In my Kroger (Ralphs), they have kept the instore Starbucks open which is still doing a brisk business. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/66 "2020-05-01T00:26:24Z")
Sorry. Death per million per day. Up to 1.3 now in Texas but averaging below 1. Shouldn’t be one size fits all but if leadership had been there and was trusted could be a cohesive set of guidelines followed by all. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/67 "2020-05-01T00:27:02Z")
Right. In China and a few other places, they would ticket you or haul you away if you broke the rules. Still, competing interests. People were already broke and can’t afford this. Perhaps not the wisest course, but I get it. ETA: @ monsto ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/68 "2020-05-01T02:14:49Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > This is another reason why the curve isn’t going to drop sharply here: there isn’t a national lockdown; There isn’t ANY lockdown anywhere so there’s no point in a discussion using such a term. What we have done is limit crowd size but we’re all free to roam about and shop as deemed “essential”. ---
**Author:** ![dorvann](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df705f/32.png) [@dorvann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dorvann)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/69 "2020-05-01T02:41:33Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > This is an important point. Even if they open the economy, no one can MAKE people go to bars, restaurants, movie theaters, gyms, etc. So if cases continue to flare up, people are going to freak out and not go to those businesses. Not to mention quite a few people aren’t going to be able to afford to go out to bars, restaurants and theaters particularly if they took advantage of the abeyance on paying mortage and rent. They still owe that money and what ever other bills have accumulated since then. And some might need money to move if they ended evicted or their mortgages defaulted. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/70 "2020-05-01T04:43:01Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > You don’t know. No one does. That’s his point. No, it wasn’t. He said coronaviruses - not ‘coronavirus’ or COVID-19. We actually do have some knowledge of the other coronaviruses that affect humans - there are six others, including SARS. To my knowledge, they do not lie dormant in the human body. I was going to ask for a cite, but based on DSeid’s post, I’m going to just file this one away as something Sam made up. ---
**Author:** ![sps49sd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@sps49sd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sps49sd)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/71 "2020-05-01T15:07:05Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Per Worldometer, Texas has had 782 coronavirus deaths, including 33 in the past day. (The next state in alphabetical order is Utah, with only 46 deaths. Maybe you looked at its line by accident?) > > I think your conclusion is still true: most of the country hasn’t really been hit yet, and even Texas, with nearly 800 deaths, is just getting warmed up. > > This is another reason why the curve isn’t going to drop sharply here: there isn’t a national lockdown; there are 50 states and DC, and while there aren’t 51 policies wrt the coronavirus because, in the absence of Federal policy, there are at least three informal regional compacts of states that I know of, there are still widely diverging policies amongst the states right now, as Florida, Georgia, Texas, Missouri, and Iowa are getting ready to open up, while most states are saying, “are you fucking kidding me?!” And thousands more will die for that divergence alone. Are you maybe exaggerating or looking too closely at the worst case? [Texas](https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas) is apparently just past its peak, not “getting warmed up”. The ‘divergence’ is appropriate because different states have different conditions; obviously there is the example of NYC vs. NYS, much less NYC vs. the rest of the nation. Wide open states are getting by fine with distancing and masks. I guess we’ll see how Sweden manages in a few weeks. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/72 "2020-05-01T15:20:33Z")
> [@sps49sd](#): > > {…} I guess we’ll see how Sweden manages in a few weeks. To be fair, once Sweden makes it’s resurrection vaccine available their numbers will improve greatly. CMC fnord! ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/73 "2020-05-01T15:30:56Z")
> [@sps49sd](#): > > Are you maybe exaggerating or looking too closely at the worst case? [Texas](https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas) is apparently just past its peak, not “getting warmed up”. Your cite’s projections assume Texas is going to continue their social distancing and business shutdowns; [they’re not](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/Texas-reports-most-deaths-in-a-day-from-COVID-19-15238205.php). ---
**Author:** ![lobotomyboy63](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobotomyboy63/32/2900_2.png) [@lobotomyboy63](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lobotomyboy63)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/74 "2020-05-01T15:41:06Z")
> [@sps49sd](#): > > Are you maybe exaggerating or looking too closely at the worst case? [Texas](https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas) is apparently just past its peak, not “getting warmed up”. I’m looking at the linked chart. The solid line peaks above all points prior. The dashed line is projected. I’m not sure why they think it’s going to fall to zero. Is that because X number of people have been reported dead (so far) today and they assume that’s the number we will end with, 11h20m from now? ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/75 "2020-05-01T15:44:39Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > Would we really be worse off if instead of lifting restrictions we instead locked things down much tighter for a month? Say we’re given time to prepare and a serious concentrated effort is made to make sure everyone has a month of food/medication/toilet paper and then everyone is absolutely locked down for the month of June. No leaving the house at all, not even to take a walk, unless you are in healthcare, a cop, a fire fighter, or work in utilities. After 4 weeks of 99% of people not mingling with people outside their household the virus would run out of new people to infect, would it not? > > Sure, international travel might bring it back, but hopefully we’ll be much better at testing and contact tracking by then so we could then sequester just those people immediately instead of allowing it to silently spread like during midwinter. All it takes is a single person having it and we’re back to square one. That’s what happened in the first place. And we wouldn’t have a single person on this plan, we would still have thousands, and over 3 million people still out and about if you’re literally talking about 99% of Americans. A 99% lockdown america for a month is absolutely impossible. Even if you accomplished it by martial law there would still be soldiers out there enforcing it. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/76 "2020-05-01T15:45:45Z")
I believe deaths per million is most likely the best indicator of how far a state is into the virus. each 100 deaths per million might check out to be about 6 or 7% infections over all. I would say Texas is not even getting warmed up yet. Once a state has been locked down peaks no longer have any meaning. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/77 "2020-05-01T15:51:55Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > There isn’t ANY lockdown anywhere so there’s no point in a discussion using such a term. What we have done is limit crowd size but we’re all free to roam about and shop as deemed “essential”. Fair enough, in most locations it is a lockdown only from the POV of businesses and activities deemed nonessential; AFAIK the only state/territory-wide curfew is Puerto Rico’s. It’s more of an “enforced distancing” because just asking nicely to do the sensible thing was not making enough people change their behavior. And heck, it’s even \*this, \*and a bunch of folk are loudly whingeing about needing to be “liberated” from the terrible opression… ---
**Author:** ![sps49sd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@sps49sd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sps49sd)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/78 "2020-05-01T17:41:11Z")
> [@slash2k](#): > > Your cite’s projections assume Texas is going to continue their social distancing and business shutdowns; [they’re not](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/Texas-reports-most-deaths-in-a-day-from-COVID-19-15238205.php). They are phasing in a return, if the numbers jump up they plan to step back. Step 1 doesn’t look like a big deal, but we will find out the results soon. > [@lobotomyboy63](#): > > I’m looking at the linked chart. The solid line peaks above all points prior. The dashed line is projected. I’m not sure why they think it’s going to fall to zero. Is that because X number of people have been reported dead (so far) today and they assume that’s the number we will end with, 11h20m from now? I’m not following some of your post, but yes, the curve will fall to near zero. The question is “when”. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/79 "2020-05-01T18:32:39Z")
> [@sps49sd](#): > > They are phasing in a return, if the numbers jump up they plan to step back. Step 1 doesn’t look like a big deal, but we will find out the results soon. … That’s true but not really the point. Your cite was a model that predicted Texas being past peak for the circumstance of continuing current restrictions. It is not a model of what happens under a circumstance of reducing controls and does not support your claim. It seems very reasonable to me to believe that different regions have different circumstances with different numbers of people exposed by others at baseline and different impacts of different changes. I do not believe that rural Texas will need the exact same controls at the exact same points as Houston let alone as Chicago. That acknowledged across the world, in various countries of various rural/urban mixes, all implementing some various sorts and degrees of social distancing control measures, have seen death rates from a low of Norways’ at 39 deaths/million (tight controls implemented early, biggest city 580K, healthy population) to roughly 400 to 500 for the group of Italy, Spain, France, U.K. … In that context to think that Texas, with Houston and San Antonio, with higher than the U.S. average for DM and obesity, is at 26 deaths per million, not “just getting warmed up”, seems unrealistic. The advantage they have is a younger population but that’s it. I’m not saying or not saying what will happen with any specific relaxation step or with what timing … but they cannot get to full release without getting through much bigger numbers along the way. ---
**Author:** ![lobotomyboy63](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobotomyboy63/32/2900_2.png) [@lobotomyboy63](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lobotomyboy63)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2020, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/80 "2020-05-01T18:54:52Z")
> [@sps49sd](#): > > I’m not following some of your post, but yes, the curve will fall to near zero. The question is “when”. I looked at the graph wrong. So they’re saying the peak was April 28 (I thought it was showing yesterday), but there’s a dotted line after that. After that, the number has an asterisk and it says \*projected, so those aren’t final counts? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805.md?page=5)