# How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 29, 2020, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805 "2020-04-29T11:54:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/121 "2020-05-06T13:54:04Z")
I think you’re both right. People’s anxieties over mass shootings goes up every time they are covered in the media. And this coverage (and the fear it elicits) occurs even when there isn’t an uptick in mass shootings. People naturally get scared whenever their attention is drawn to something scary. Conversely, they aren’t afraid of things that aren’t in their awareness. But it is also true the higher the body count, the more attention something will get. The more dead bodies, the more media coverage it will get, and thus the more fearful the populace will be. For example, we rarely hear about mass shootings with low body counts anymore. To get lasting national coverage nowadays, it seems like the body count has to be five or more. Lower than that = no big deal. Eventually ~2,000 corona deaths per day = no big deal. The media won’t cover it. People will stop reacting to it. But let that number go up substantially and the media spotlight will swing back, reactivating the public’s fear response. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/122 "2020-05-06T20:36:07Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > I think you’re both right. > > People’s anxieties over mass shootings goes up every time they are covered in the media. And this coverage (and the fear it elicits) occurs even when there isn’t an uptick in mass shootings. People naturally get scared whenever their attention is drawn to something scary. Conversely, they aren’t afraid of things that aren’t in their awareness. > > But it is also true the higher the body count, the more attention something will get. The more dead bodies, the more media coverage it will get, and thus the more fearful the populace will be. For example, we rarely hear about mass shootings with low body counts anymore. To get lasting national coverage nowadays, it seems like the body count has to be five or more. Lower than that = no big deal. … The analogy with gun deaths is cogent precisely because of where you last point seems incorrect. Hundreds of poor urban young adult Blacks dead in a day gets a collective ho hum. Four white suburbanites especially kids? Big news still that scares millions who demand action. To the degree that deaths and other problems (from COVID-19 and from the impact of our interventions both) are concentrated in lower SES groups, especially those of color, I suspect they will be less an ongoing sense of anxiety to society at large. Pretty sure you agree. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/123 "2020-05-06T21:15:30Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > To the degree that deaths and other problems (from COVID-19 and from the impact of our interventions both) are concentrated in lower SES groups, especially those of color, I suspect they will be less an ongoing sense of anxiety to society at large. > > Pretty sure you agree. I agree that people aren’t taking this seriously because they incorrectly perceive this to be a black thing (50% of the casualties are estimated to be non-Hispanic white folk and in some places, [white casualities are occurring disproportionately](https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race)). I do not agree that this perception or apathetic attitude will continue to be held as the infection spreads and starts impacting more privileged communities. ---
**Author:** ![Grim\_Render](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@Grim\_Render](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grim_Render)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/124 "2020-05-07T00:12:00Z")
A certain percentage of people dying each year from disease, plague, dysentry or epidemic has been the default condition of most of humanitys urban timespan. Smallpox used to kill half a million people in Europe each year a couple of hundred years back. Measles yearly toll worldwide only dropped below a hundred thousand children recently. In that sense, it’ll be a return to normal conditions. However, a disease that disproportionately affects the elderly, sick and people not mentally equipped to take basic precautions… The “elderly” bit means that its going to be disproportionately dangerous to the privileged and rich, who tend to average older and male. I am not sure if that is an acceptable status quo. Also a situation where the virus is endemic in the US and eradicated elsewhere is going to be awkward to say the least for US trade and dealmaking. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/125 "2020-05-07T01:07:48Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > I agree that people aren’t taking this seriously because they incorrectly perceive this to be a black thing (50% of the casualties are estimated to be non-Hispanic white folk and in some places, [white casualities are occurring disproportionately](https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race)). > > I do not agree that this perception or apathetic attitude will continue to be held as the infection spreads and starts impacting more privileged communities. It is not “a Black thing” but, as discussed [in another thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=895410), the racial and socioeconomic disparities are striking. Of course privileged communities will also be impacted … but less, in terms of all of morbidity and mortality, and in the impacts of the interventions on jobs, and housing and food insecurity. [Just look in NYC](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200429134011.htm). > [@](#): > > Researchers found that COVID-19 hospitalization and death rates varied across New York City boroughs. The Bronx – with the highest proportion of racial/ethnic minorities, the most poverty, and lowest educational attainment – had higher rates of hospitalization and death related to COVID-19 than all other boroughs. These rates were lowest in affluent Manhattan, composed of a predominantly white population. COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 persons was nearly two times greater in the Bronx than in Manhattan. It will spread through whiter rural America heavily as well, and there too rest assured the poorest of the group will be hit hardest medically. Higher up the SES, educational, power ladder you go the more likely you have a job that can be done remotely, or at least the resources to weather the shut down economic storm, and buy food even when prices go up. Lower SES of all demographics, not so much so. And aspects of structural racism amplify those impacts. **Grim Render** there should be no realistic expectation that this will be eradicated anywhere. Oddly it is [hitting high income countries much more than low-income and lower-middle income countries](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/05/05/the-unreal-dichotomy-in-covid-19-mortality-between-high-income-and-developing-countries/) … so far. But even if it never hits developing countries so hard, they will bear the brunt of hunger and non-COVID-19 infectious pandemics that COVID-19 and the responses to it are in the process of causing … but those many hundreds of thousands of deaths, heavily weighted to children, will never be of huge Western concern. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/126 "2020-05-07T03:31:04Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > Hell, when I was working service jobs, I can remember being told that if I didn’t come in for my shift, don’t bother coming in ever again. And that was in a job handling prepared food. You can expect this even now that there’s a pandemic because lots of businesses will be desperate to serve the public - they’ll tell an employee to get lost if they think they can hire someone else. The whole thing is a mess. Reopening is a potential\* disaster because we’re not going to have a good testing and tracing system for at least another 2-3 months, and in the meantime, and a lot of people who get sick will simply avoid the healthcare system and just get sick or even die at home, or in their cars trying to drive to the hospital. I say potential because we might actually get lucky and this could mutate into something less dangerous - highly unlikely yes, but not impossible. Not all mutations make a virus more dangerous. But yeah, slash was absolutely correct (if I’m reading him correctly). People are talking about the low death rate - so what? Plenty of young people are getting shockingly ill. And when you’re ill with COVID, you’re down for weeks, potentially. For the thousandth time, this is _not_ the flu. It’s clearly deadlier no matter how people try to spin the death rate, and those it doesn’t kill, it knocks them right on their ass for a few weeks. Many, of course, are asymptomatic - and spreading the disease at lightning speed. We need to accept reality. The “best healthcare system in the world” clearly isn’t. It’s got a lot of high-tech toys and innovation, but it’s terrible at spreading the benefits of its innovation evenly, and now it’s showing - even worse now that we’ve got a bunch of clowns running the federal health response. ---
**Author:** ![Grim\_Render](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@Grim\_Render](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grim_Render)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2020, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/127 "2020-05-09T19:29:48Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > **Grim Render** there should be no realistic expectation that this will be eradicated anywhere. Oddly it is [hitting high income countries much more than low-income and lower-middle income countries](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/05/05/the-unreal-dichotomy-in-covid-19-mortality-between-high-income-and-developing-countries/) … so far. But even if it never hits developing countries so hard, they will bear the brunt of hunger and non-COVID-19 infectious pandemics that COVID-19 and the responses to it are in the process of causing … but those many hundreds of thousands of deaths, heavily weighted to children, will never be of huge Western concern. New Zealand and the Faroes have eradicated it already. South Korea and Taiwan are close. In Norway we have an opening schedule now, as do Denmark. Eastern Europe in General seem to have done well. Eradication seem to be on the cards for a number of nations. The issue is, who is going to trade with nations that can’t? ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/128 "2020-05-10T15:09:45Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Oddly it is hitting high income countries much more than low-income and lower-middle income countries[ … so far. . Reading further down that article, I think it’s not actually saying that; what it’s saying is that the statistics we’re seeing about it are “unreal” in the sense of not being accurate information. From the article linked: > [@](#): > > it is surprising that the distribution of the reported mortality burden is so unevenly tilted towards HICs. There are various reasons why we believe this is unreal. One culprit is data quality. [. . .] > > Data quality—accuracy, completeness, consistence, timeliness, and validity—is likely the main culprit why the true death toll is not reflected in the statistics. [. . .] > > We argue that the dichotomy in the mortality stats between high-income and developing countries is likely very significantly overrepresented. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/129 "2020-05-10T16:15:48Z")
> [@Grim\_Render](#): > > New Zealand and the Faroes have eradicated it already. South Korea and Taiwan are close. In Norway we have an opening schedule now, as do Denmark. Eastern Europe in General seem to have done well. Eradication seem to be on the cards for a number of nations. > > The issue is, who is going to trade with nations that can’t? I hate to be the Debbie Downer but none of those countries have actually eradicated it. They have stalled it and can maintain that stall only so long as they stay fairly isolated from the rest of the world. South Korea loosened only a bit pulled back right away. Can they, any of them, maintain that degree of isolation and control until and if a safe effective enough vaccine is developed and widely applied how ever long it takes? This germ is NOT going to be eradicated from the face of the planet. There have been woefully few widespread germs we’ve achieved that for, and not for lack of trying _and_ with very effective vaccines available. None of those countries are at the end of their stories with this germ. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/130 "2020-05-10T16:29:57Z")
**\< How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends? \>** They will: 1. Blame Obama 2. Blame Hillary 3. Blame China 4. Blame someone else 5. Deny deaths are happening - the dead people are “actors” or the media are making it up ANYthing, other than take responsibility. They will NEVER admit they were wrong. The Covidiots are ignorant fools, buyers of snake-oil and lies. They are fucking stupid. And they don’t know that they are fucking stupid. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/131 "2020-05-10T16:36:13Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > Reading further down that article, I think it’s not actually saying that; what it’s saying is that the statistics we’re seeing about it are “unreal” in the sense of not being accurate information. > > From the article linked: To be more precise they are saying they seem unreal and they suspect that some of the explanation for the huge disparity is inaccurate information. That said they then claim that > [@](#): > > Death may be better measured than infection, especially in HICs, but even so there is ample evidence that COVID-19 deaths are being misattributed to different causes. By some estimates, reported death rates in selected countries could be underestimated by 60 percent. Accept that. Triple the death rates in these countries even. Deaths per million in Indonesia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan would still only be 9. In Bangladesh and India 3 … so on. Few that using that correction factor come close to the numbers of the wealthier nations of Europe and the United States. Inaccurate and incomplete data is likely part of the huge disparity but it is an insufficient explanation in and of itself. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/132 "2020-05-10T17:56:08Z")
Here’s dateline Berlin: > [@](#): > > **[New virus clusters show risks of 2nd wave as protests flare](https://nbc16.com/news/new-virus-clusters-show-risks-of-2nd-wave-as-protests-flare?fbclid=IwAR24-ynZ0LODwGy-9FN0GIQnftvfk2onLkuGmZCoaOr4PFZE1Up2I540uAc)** > > German officials have expressed concerns about the growing number of large demonstrations, including one in the southwestern city of Stuttgart that drew thousands of participants. Police in Berlin had to step in Saturday after hundreds of people failed to respect social distancing measures at anti-lockdown rallies. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/133 "2020-05-10T18:08:44Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > ANYthing, other than take responsibility. They will NEVER admit they were wrong. The Covidiots are ignorant fools, buyers of snake-oil and lies. They are fucking stupid. > > And they don’t know that they are fucking stupid. Uh huh. Millions of people were put of a job. They’ve been sheltering for 2 months. Most of them can survive the virus without any long term effect but they can’t survive the financial destruction. For those few who are vulnerable they have the ability to mitigate the disease through the use of masks, good hygiene and sheltering. You’re under a mistaken idea that we’re doing all this for the few that are vulnerable. We’re doing this so the medical system doesn’t implode. Because that would make it harder on everybody and even more so on the vulnerable. You can already see how that worked when NY sent people with the virus to [del]death camps[/del] nursing homes. We have the hospital situation under control. Now it’s time to get the financial crisis under control. They are not mutually exclusive of each other. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/134 "2020-05-10T18:19:58Z")
Of course the virus will flare up and of course it will get very ugly, mother nature does these things on occasion. And then it will be over and life will go on. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/135 "2020-05-10T19:26:29Z")
According to this [article](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html?searchResultPosition=2), COVID infections/deaths will rise and fall over the next two to three years. > [@](#): > > By now we know — contrary to false predictions — that the novel coronavirus will be with us for a rather long time. > > “Exactly how long remains to be seen,” said Marc Lipsitch, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “It’s going to be a matter of managing it over months to a couple of years. It’s not a matter of getting past the peak, as some people seem to believe.” > > A single round of social distancing — closing schools and workplaces, limiting the sizes of gatherings, lockdowns of varying intensities and durations — will not be sufficient in the long term. > > In the interest of managing our expectations and governing ourselves accordingly, it might be helpful, for our pandemic state of mind, to envision this predicament — existentially, at least — as a soliton wave: a wave that just keeps rolling and rolling, carrying on under its own power for a great distance. > … > > **The pandemic wave, similarly, will be with us for the foreseeable future before it diminishes.** But, depending on one’s geographic location and the policies in place, it will exhibit variegated dimensions and dynamics traveling through time and space. > … > > Scenario No. 1 depicts an initial wave of cases — the current one — followed by a consistently bumpy ride of “peaks and valleys” that will gradually diminish over a year or two. > > Scenario No. 2 supposes that the current wave will be followed by a larger “fall peak,” or perhaps a winter peak, with subsequent smaller waves thereafter, similar to what transpired during the 1918-1919 flu pandemic. > > Scenario No. 3 shows an intense spring peak followed by a “slow burn” with less-pronounced ups and downs. > Sign up to receive an email when we publish a new story about the coronavirus outbreak. > > The authors conclude that whichever reality materializes (assuming ongoing mitigation measures, as we await a vaccine), “we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas.” > … > > …once we lift the social distancing measures, the virus will quite possibly spread again as easily as it did before the lockdowns.” > > So, lacking a vaccine, our pandemic state of mind may persist well into 2021 or 2022 — which surprised even the experts. > > “We anticipated a prolonged period of social distancing would be necessary, but didn’t initially realize that it could be this long,” Dr. Kissler said. > … My bold. At the link there are illustrations of the waves that represent these three scenarios. ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/136 "2020-05-10T20:09:45Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > For those few who are vulnerable > … > the few that are vulnerable Seriously? Just those aged 65 or older make up one person in seven. One child in twelve has asthma. Almost one in three Americans has diabetes or prediabetes. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/137 "2020-05-10T20:22:14Z")
Here’s a related question I’ve been pondering for a while and not sure if it deserved it’s own thread: I’ve seen many folks bemoan that if a second wave does it, everything we’re doing right now would have been “all for nothing.” Is that so? Does it depend on how severe the aftermath actually is? Because it sort of feels like the “all for nothing” argument is unintentionally one step away from “ah, hell with it, let’s reopen.” ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/138 "2020-05-10T20:33:20Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Here’s a related question I’ve been pondering for a while and not sure if it deserved it’s own thread: I’ve seen many folks bemoan that if a second wave does it, everything we’re doing right now would have been “all for nothing.” Is that so? Does it depend on how severe the aftermath actually is? Because it sort of feels like the “all for nothing” argument is unintentionally one step away from “ah, hell with it, let’s reopen.” I don’t think it’s all for nothing. We’ve learned a lot in the past couple of months. We know how to stay home, even if we don’t much like it. We’ve learned how to be relatively safe from the virus. We know to test nursing homes frequently and regularly. We know that we need to watch our kids for inflammation even after they’ve recovered. Companies have learned how to let employees work from home when necessary. Manufacturing and distribution networks have been refined to cope with the virus. We know that there’s a problem in the meat industry that is (we hope) being addressed. So we know the drill now. We can be in full-on lockdown in a couple of days instead of in weeks or months. And, hopefully, there’s now some level of protection against reinfection for those who got sick in the first wave. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/139 "2020-05-10T20:38:07Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Here’s a related question I’ve been pondering for a while and not sure if it deserved it’s own thread: I’ve seen many folks bemoan that if a second wave does it, everything we’re doing right now would have been “all for nothing.” Is that so? Does it depend on how severe the aftermath actually is? Because it sort of feels like the “all for nothing” argument is unintentionally one step away from “ah, hell with it, let’s reopen.” Personally, I don’t see evidence that the lockdown period was used wisely. We should have used this time period to ensure hospitals, EMTs, nursing homes, etc. have adequate stocks of PPE, ventilators, and whatever else they need. We should have used this time period to ramp up testing such that anyone with symptoms–regardless of severity–can get a test result within a matter of hours. I don’t see evidence that either of these things has have happened. There’s going to be a second wave. There is no “if”. I don’t think a second wave all by itself will render this lockdown pointless. But I think if we face the second wave with the same degree of preparation we had back in February, then yeah, all of this will have been for nothing. If we truly go back to normal when we reopen, then we’re all stupid and deserve whatever tragedy awaits us. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/140 "2020-05-10T22:05:31Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > Personally, I don’t see evidence that the lockdown period was used wisely. We should have used this time period to ensure hospitals, EMTs, nursing homes, etc. have adequate stocks of PPE, ventilators, and whatever else they need. We should have used this time period to ramp up testing such that anyone with symptoms–regardless of severity–can get a test result within a matter of hours. I don’t see evidence that either of these things has have happened. > > There’s going to be a second wave. There is no “if”. I don’t think a second wave all by itself will render this lockdown pointless. But I think if we face the second wave with the same degree of preparation we had back in February, then yeah, all of this will have been for nothing. All of this is true but there are some even more fundamental problems with our food and essential resource supply chains that have not been addressed. There is still sufficient food “in the pipeline” that shortages have not yet become severe but with meat packing plants closing, serious consideration about curtailing the wild salmon harvest in Alaska, and the lack of immigrant labor to pick fruit and vegetable crops leading to these crops literally left to rot, we can expect some significant shortages and price increases in the coming season even while pressure on food banks is at historic levels. Then there is the assumption of the “V-shaped recovery” that is not going to happen because even if we turned on all economic activity today there are millions of people whose jobs are not coming back it the foreseeable future, and the gross uncertainty in real estate and mortgage markets. There is a lot of emphasis on getting students back into schools–which is a necessity–but no uniform guidelines for distancing or surveillance or any attempts at test cases to see what will and will not work in practice. And while the assumption has been that children who are not immunosuppressed do not suffer from severe COVID-19 symptoms, there is now growing evidence that some children do suffer from a Kawasaki-like illness causing them to experience severe vasculitis many weeks after contracting the virus; if this turns out to be more widespread than expected then schools may have to close again, and I have seen no plan to address that. So, quite aside from preparing for the direct effects of another epidemic wave, we aren’t even preparing for the secondary effects on the economy, food security, and education systems, all of which already had significant structural problems prior to the pandemic. Stranger [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805.md?page=8)