# How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 29, 2020, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805 "2020-04-29T11:54:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/141 "2020-05-10T22:11:42Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > According to this [article](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html?searchResultPosition=2), COVID infections/deaths will rise and fall over the next two to three years. > > My bold. > > At the link there are illustrations of the waves that represent these three scenarios. Not sure why anyone has been, knowing what we now know, even considering anything other than those prospects being in the cards at all. First comment - of the three prospects laid out in the Minnesota link there is ONE that is the worst, by FAR - that is the “Fall Peak” one … and one that is the least poor is the “Slow Burn”. Fall Peak not only has the largest peak (thus most able to exceed health system capacity) but is most likely to occur along with influenza. A double catastrophe. That would occur with Of the possibilities the one would most want to TRY to create is “Slow Burn” … which includes _having_ some level of cases over summer, a controlled burn allowed that is not allowed to get too hot by the degrees of mitigation measures in place in various areas. Second comment - critical inputs are still placeholder wild assed guesses. The _Science_ link, more rigorous in its modeling, accepts that the very fundamentals are just not known. > [@](#): > > The pandemic and post-pandemic transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 will depend on factors including the degree of seasonal variation in transmission, the duration of immunity, and the degree of cross-immunity between SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses, as well as the intensity and timing of control measures. … Interesting that they are raising the issue of degrees of cross-immunity with other coronaviruses. Not something that gets mentioned too often. They continue - > [@](#): > > The betacoronaviruses can induce immune responses against one another: SARS-CoV-1 infection can generate neutralizing antibodies against HCoV-OC43 (16) and HCoV-OC43 infection can generate cross-reactive antibodies against SARS-CoV-1 (17). While investigations into the spectrum of illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 are ongoing, recent evidence indicates the majority of cases experience mild to moderate illness with more limited occurrence of severe lower respiratory infection (18). Current COVID-19 case fatality rates are estimated to lie between 0.6% and 3.5% (19, 20), suggesting lower severity than SARS-CoV-1 and MERS but higher severity than HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. The high infectiousness near the start of often mild symptoms makes SARS-CoV-2 considerably harder to control with case-based interventions such as intensive testing, isolation and tracing, compared to SARS-CoV-1 and MERS coronaviruses (21). Then they go on to create some models that explore different scenarios of seasonal variation, cross-immunity, immunity duration, based off of various other placeholder assumptions. A variety of possibilities result. One would be “smaller peak incidence during the initial pandemic wave but larger recurrent wintertime outbreaks” with a lighter summer season. Again, the nightmare option, timed with influenza. Another - “If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is permanent, the virus could disappear for five or more years after causing a major outbreak” … of note in that scenario some of the common cold causing HCoVs could go away too “if SARS-CoV-2 induced 70% cross immunity against them, which is the same estimated level of cross-immunity that HCoV-OC43 induces against HCoV-HKU1.” Another - "Even if SARS-CoV-2 immunity only lasts for two years, mild (30%) cross-immunity from HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 could effectively eliminate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 for up to three years before a resurgence in 2024, as long as SARS-CoV-2 does not fully die out " They then modeled impacts of mitigation, both “one time” and “intermittent” under “the worst-case scenario” … that really needs to be emphasized, and is not mentioned in the NYT communication of the article. They also modeled variation in efficacy of mitigation as well and come up with results that might surprise some. > [@](#): > > longer and more stringent temporary social distancing did not always correlate with greater reductions in epidemic peak size. In the case of a 20-week period of social distancing with 60% reduction in R0, for example (Fig. 4D), the resurgence peak size was nearly the same as the peak size of the uncontrolled epidemic: the social distancing was so effective that virtually no population immunity was built. The greatest reductions in peak size come from social distancing intensity and duration that divide cases approximately equally between peaks Let’s really highlight that, even as we fully acknowledge the limits of the worst case assumptions they use. Achieving greater and longer initial suppression would, in their model of intermittent suppression, lead to bigger peaks later. From the discussion section: > [@](#): > > if establishment occurs in the autumn when the reproduction number is rising, which could occur in countries that maintain epidemic control by contact tracing and quarantine through the summer, or if SARS-CoV-2 is not subject to the same summertime decline in transmissibility as HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, then a high peak prevalence of infection is likely. One-time social distancing efforts may push the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic peak into the autumn, potentially exacerbating the load on critical care resources if there is increased wintertime transmissibility. Intermittent social distancing might maintain critical care demand within current thresholds, but widespread surveillance will be required to time the distancing measures correctly and avoid overshooting critical care capacity. Let’s maybe consider broadening from “intermittent” to “dynamically adjusted and graduated mitigation measures chose for most efficacy over least harms as the data as collected informs.” Note also that they do allow that if cases become low enough that “aggressive contact tracing and quarantine” become practical (current per them not) it "could alleviate’ the needs. Also from the discussion section: > [@](#): > > Our findings indicate key data required to know how the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak will unfold. Most crucially, serological studies could indicate the extent of population immunity, whether immunity wanes, and at what rate … if serological data reveals the existence of many undocumented asymptomatic infections that lead to immunity (50), less social distancing may be required. Serology could also indicate whether cross-immunity exists between SARS-CoV-2, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-HKU1, which could affect the post-pandemic transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We anticipate that such cross-immunity would lessen the intensity of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks … To implement intermittent social distancing, it will be necessary to carry out widespread viral testing for surveillance to monitor when the prevalence thresholds that trigger the beginning or end of distancing have been crossed. Without such surveillance, critical care bed availability might be used as a proxy for prevalence, but this metric is far from optimal … if there have been many undocumented immunizing infections, the herd immunity threshold may be reached sooner than our models suggest. …The model will have to be tailored to local conditions and updated as more accurate data become available. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently required to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and epidemiological surveillance should be maintained in the coming years to anticipate the possibility of resurgence. The take away to my read - IF one realistically believes with some surety and confidence that we _will_ be able to get new infection rates very low and then be able to get enough people cooperating with testing and quarantining in an ongoing basis for an indefinite future then one should try to push down to near zero. Note not “should” but real world “will”. The risk of trying for that and failing though is dramatic. That is the Fall Peak nightmare. Systems overrun with a high peak occurring timed with influenza. If one is not sure of being able to accomplish that then a controlled slow burn (in their model achieved by intermittent social distancing) may be the least poor choice. Again, my preferred variation is controlling it with “dynamically adjusted and graduated mitigation measures chose for most efficacy over least harms as the data as collected informs”, with special attention to doing MUCH better at protecting the most vulnerable than we have done do date. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/142 "2020-05-10T22:45:48Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > IF one realistically believes with some surety and confidence that we _will_ be able to get new infection rates very low and then be able to get enough people cooperating with testing and quarantining in an ongoing basis for an indefinite future then one should try to push down to near zero. Note not “should” but real world “will”. > > The risk of trying for that and failing though is dramatic. That is the Fall Peak nightmare. Systems overrun with a high peak occurring timed with influenza. > > If one is not sure of being able to accomplish that then a controlled slow burn (in their model achieved by intermittent social distancing) may be the least poor choice. > > Again, my preferred variation is controlling it with “dynamically adjusted and graduated mitigation measures chose for most efficacy over least harms as the data as collected informs”, with special attention to doing MUCH better at protecting the most vulnerable than we have done do date. The problem with trying to dynamically adjust and graduate distancing protocols is getting the public to actually participate when needed. The social dynamics of the contagion are the biggest unknown in a giant pot of unknowns, and we’ve seen already how defiant and obstructive many people have been to even minimally intrusive (and marginally effective) measures such as cloth face coverings in businesses or asking people to refrain from large social gatherings like parties and ceremonies, much less repeated actual stay-at-home isolation measures. Expecting enough people to ramp up and down their interactions not to mention the effect on businesses that cannot maintain consistent procedures is just probably not going to happen in most of the United States because the infectiousness of this virus and the often asymptomatic spread means that even a minority of violators will rapidly achieve epidemic levels of contagion. There are a lot of people pinning their hopes on a vaccine being ready for deployment by the end of the year, and one of the significant failings of the public health system from the top down has been a failure to discourage that kind of magical thinking. The “controlled burn” model combined with a heavy emphasis on developing pharmaceutical and procedural interventions to keep patients from getting to the point of having to be put on mechanical ventilation is the best, most realistic path to returning to something like a normal economy and social interactions, and even that is going to be on the timeframe of another two years. However, from what I’m seeing currently, the “Fall Peak Nightmare” seems all too likely, and there needs to be a concerted effort to get as many people inoculated against influenza to minimize the impact of co-morbidities in two potentially simultaneous epidemics. There also needs to be an emphasis on food security and good nutrition, including Vitamin C and D supplementation to boost immune system response for vulnerable people, and effective protection for all workers who are in customer-facing roles; not just doctors, nurses, and first responders, but cashiers, service people, et cetera, because these are the people who are most likely to be core spreaders if infected. I’ve seen a lot of emphasis on track & trace which would make sense to maintain marginal infection levels in the “slow burn” scenario but if the contagion returns to epidemic levels (and it seems that the unrestricted basic replication number is much higher than even the revised official estimates), then the effort for tracking and tracing in general society may be a waste of time (but still potentially useful in care facilities and other restricted situations) unless testing is frequent and pervasive, which would require a near-real time antigen test capability that just isn’t currently available. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/143 "2020-05-10T23:00:08Z")
> [@GreysonCarlisle](#): > > Seriously? > > Just those aged 65 or older make up one person in seven. One child in twelve has asthma. Almost one in three Americans has diabetes or prediabetes. Seriously. Millions and millions of people are being financially destroyed. Those over 65 are retired or can retire. That incomes requires that people work to generate money for taxes to pay that income. They can shelter in place. There’s an extremely low death rate among children and none of them are considered essential workers so they can shelter in place. People with type 1 diabetes need to take extra care monitoring their blood sugar level but your 1 in 3 statistic is just an emotional rant. Age is the overall marker for death from this disease just as it is for the flu. We don’t shut the country down for the flu and we’re not going to shut down the country indefinitely for this particular virus. It’s been 8 weeks. We’ve prevented the health care system from being overrun and it’s time to go back to work. There will be peaks and valleys going forward just as there will be improvements in treatments. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/144 "2020-05-10T23:04:35Z")
**[Key virus modeler says rise in mobility is driving up death projection](https://www.axios.com/ihme-coronavirus-model-mobility-85b6aa01-eb86-4c8b-bea3-521e0300e010.html)** > [@](#): > > Christopher Murray, director of University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said on CBS News’ “Face the Nation” Sunday that his coronavirus model projects that more than 137,000 people in the United States may die from the virus by August. > > … > > **What he’s saying:** “We’re seeing, in some states, a 20 percentage point increase in just 1o days in mobility, and that will translate into more human contact, more transmission,” Murray said. > > ``` > [ul] > > ``` > > [li]Murray explained that the rise in mobility is likely a result of states relaxing lockdown measures and of people simply growing tired of staying indoors.[/li][li] “The places that are taking off the social distancing mandates, the bump in mobility appears to be larger,” he said. “So somewhere like Georgia, which was one of the first, we’re seeing is in that category of a pretty big increase.”[/li][/ul] > The big picture: More than half the states in the U.S. have begun lifting some coronavirus restrictions or outlined plans to do so, despite few, if any, meeting the White House’s criteria for reopening economies. This has prompted concerns among many health experts that there could be another surge in cases. > … (Formatting in original) “Could be another surge in cases…” Huh? COULD BE?? That’s nuts. :smack: If they’re saying “could,” then they’re not _health experts_ in my book. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/145 "2020-05-10T23:13:39Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > **[Key virus modeler says rise in mobility is driving up death projection](https://www.axios.com/ihme-coronavirus-model-mobility-85b6aa01-eb86-4c8b-bea3-521e0300e010.html)**(Formatting in original) > > “Could be another surge in cases…” Huh? COULD BE?? That’s nuts. :smack: If they’re saying “could,” then they’re not _health experts_ in my book. To be fair, good scientists tend to hedge their language like this. I’m more wary of experts who speak confidently than those who don’t. I agree that a surge is definitely going to happen, though. But if I were called upon to give my expert opinion about this, I’d probably be a little wishy-washy too just out of habit. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/146 "2020-05-10T23:16:32Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > “Could be another surge in cases…” Huh? COULD BE?? That’s nuts. :smack: If they’re saying “could,” then they’re not _health experts_ in my book. For a scientist, everything has to be expressed in terms of conditional probability, especially when reference to model predictions in the aggregate. However, you can safely bet your mortgage that there will be a surge in cases and everybody who hasn’t run multiple waterfront casinos into the ground understands this to be an essential fact; it is just a question of how big those surges will be, and whether the measures in place can manage to keep them from peaking so sharply that people who could be saved with medical interventions (and others who require treatment for other non-related issues) will die because the health care system is overwhelmed or dysfunctional. I am not optimistic. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/147 "2020-05-10T23:53:44Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Seriously. Millions and millions of people are being financially destroyed. > > Those over 65 are retired or can retire. That incomes requires that people work to generate money for taxes to pay that income. They can shelter in place. > > There’s an extremely low death rate among children and none of them are considered essential workers so they can shelter in place. > > People with type 1 diabetes need to take extra care monitoring their blood sugar level but your 1 in 3 statistic is just an emotional rant. Age is the overall marker for death from this disease just as it is for the flu. We don’t shut the country down for the flu and we’re not going to shut down the country indefinitely for this particular virus. > > It’s been 8 weeks. We’ve prevented the health care system from being overrun and it’s time to go back to work. There will be peaks and valleys going forward just as there will be improvements in treatments. I prefer “financially destroyed” to “actually destroyed.” There’s something wrong with a system that assumes the elderly are less valuable than other members of society. But the main thing I came in to say is that you’re falsely assuming a binary outcome: either you die of COVID or you don’t. That’s not actually the case: detailed reportsare circulating about individuals with long-term consequences, from mildly debilitating to severe, following recovery. Whether those are for a couple of months or lifelong is impossible to know. I haven’t seen anything like a percentage, but if you recover from the flu, you’re fine. That’s not necessarily the case here, and I’d really like to know what the actual health costs would be of just letting it run through the population. How many of us would recover, only to be unable to work again? ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2020, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/148 "2020-05-10T23:57:43Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > We have the hospital situation under control. Now it’s time to get the financial crisis under control. They are not mutually exclusive of each other. We have the hospital problem under control because of the lockdown. Open things up too much, and it won’t be under control any more. Little Dutch boy has his fingers in the dike. Only a little bit of water is leaking out. Problem solved. He’s very very hungry - why not go and get lunch? What can go wrong? Careful reopening yes. But you’re assuming that careful people are going to expose themselves to risk, and idiots like the protesters standing next to each other without masks are going to respect the social distancing guidelines. Like in bars. People are real careful in bars. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/149 "2020-05-11T00:55:02Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Careful reopening yes. But you’re assuming that careful people are going to expose themselves to risk, and idiots like the protesters standing next to each other without masks are going to respect the social distancing guidelines. Like in bars. People are real careful in bars. Example: [_Reuters_: “South Korea tracks new coronavirus outbreak in Seoul nightclubs”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-idUSKBN22K0SK) Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/150 "2020-05-11T01:11:53Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > I prefer “financially destroyed” to “actually destroyed.” > > There’s something wrong with a system that assumes the elderly are less valuable than other members of society. tens of thousands die of the flu every year. Every year. We’ve lost more people to the flu than in any war. Shouldn’t we shelter in place for that? If you personally prefer financial destruction rather than risk death then God’s speed in your endeavors. Those who disagree with you with you prefer to survive financially and support the structured return to work the states are engaging in. ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/151 "2020-05-11T01:23:00Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Seriously. Millions and millions of people are being financially destroyed. “Financially destroyed” isn’t really a thing. Poverty is a thing. Millions of people are _entering poverty_. That’s an extremely bad thing, because poverty is terrible, and sucks. But it’s not the same as something being destroyed. The chief difference is that after something is destroyed, it’s permanently gone and you can’t get it back again. Framing the the bad economic consequences of quarantine/shutdown measures as a type of ‘destruction’ not only offers a false equivalence between losing money and actually dying, it makes a great avoidance strategy for the people who can actually do something about this (those with money). “Financially destroyed” implies an irreversible process that, once it happened, all you can do is live with it. Poverty can be alleviated. The people in power in the US right now have not historically been all that interested in alleviating poverty but it’s the sort of thing that governments are well-equipped to do, unlike bringing people back from the dead, which they’re not any better at than the rest of us. Governments should not be allowed to get away with any of this “oh, we can’t take such and such a measure because people would be _financially destroyed_”. They should acknowledge that some of the things that can be done to save lives are going to put people at risk of falling into poverty _and then do their actual job of alleviating that_ ---
**Author:** ![GreysonCarlisle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@GreysonCarlisle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreysonCarlisle)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/152 "2020-05-11T01:36:11Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Seriously. Millions and millions of people are being financially destroyed. > > Those over 65 are retired or can retire. That incomes requires that people work to generate money for taxes to pay that income. They can shelter in place. [You wish](https://www.fool.com/retirement/2020/01/19/millions-of-seniors-cant-even-afford-the-basics-in.aspx). Most people who might be able to retire could barely afford necessities, if that. > [@](#): > > There’s an extremely low death rate among children and none of them are considered essential workers so they can shelter in place. So kids’ actual job–education and becoming socialized–you’d just write off. And let’s not forget the kids who’ve recovered from COVID only to get sick or die from inflammation. > [@](#): > > People with type 1 diabetes need to take extra care monitoring their blood sugar level but your 1 in 3 statistic is just an emotional rant. Odd your definition of _rant_. I don’t think _extra care_ is going to keep them alive when their organs start failing. > [@](#): > > Age is the overall marker for death from this disease just as it is for the flu. We don’t shut the country down for the flu and we’re not going to shut down the country indefinitely for this particular virus. THIS. IS. NOT. THE. FUCK. ING. FLU. > [@Magiver](#): > > Those who disagree with you with you prefer to survive financially and support the structured return to work the states are engaging in. And fuck whoever those people happen to infect. Because they should have retired or monitored their blood sugar better or not had a heart or lung condition. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/153 "2020-05-11T01:41:24Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > We have the hospital problem under control because of the lockdown. Open things up too much, and it won’t be under control any more. > > Little Dutch boy has his fingers in the dike. Only a little bit of water is leaking out. Problem solved. He’s very very hungry - why not go and get lunch? What can go wrong? > Careful reopening yes. But you’re assuming that careful people are going to expose themselves to risk, and idiots like the protesters standing next to each other without masks are going to respect the social distancing guidelines. Like in bars. People are real careful in bars. Don’t go to bars. Stay at home. Wear a mask at work. Wash your hands. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/154 "2020-05-11T01:57:37Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > tens of thousands die of the flu every year. Every year. We’ve lost more people to the flu than in any war. Shouldn’t we shelter in place for that? :rolleyes: By this time, bringing again the dead horse argument that we should compare this to the flu, makes it a very asinine argument. > **[Do you still think coronavirus is just like the flu? Here’s why COVID-19 is...](https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/is-coronavirus-worse-than-flu-jefferson-mayo-penn-state-new-jersey-pennsylvania-cdc-20200408.html)** > > The diseases have much in common, but most numbers are worse for coronavirus. > [@](#): > > Gregory A. Poland, a Mayo Clinic infectious diseases specialist who acts as a spokesperson for the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said the question always comes up when he does radio talk shows: “Isn’t this just the flu or a ‘bad flu’?” > > John J. Zurlo, chief of the division of infectious diseases at Jefferson Health, thinks the answer is clear. Both diseases can kill, but the scale of the coronavirus problem, he said, is “much, much larger.” > [@](#): > > A huge difference is that there are vaccines for flu each fall. They’re not perfect, but when well-matched to the circulating strains of flu, which change every year, they reduce the number of cases and the amount of serious disease. There is no vaccine for the coronavirus, which can cause a disease that no one in the world had before it emerged in China in December. Unlike the flu, there are no proven antiviral treatments for coronavirus. > > “I hate to think of what flu seasons would be like if we had no vaccinations,” Zurlo said. That report was back from early April when more than 12,000 died in the USA, now we are over 80,000 dead and we are bound to see more that 100,000 way before the end of the year. > [@Magiver](#): > > If you personally prefer financial destruction rather than risk death then God’s speed in your endeavors. > > Those who disagree with you with you prefer to survive financially and support the structured return to work the states are engaging in. [It is more likely that we would see even people in the White house die and create more chaos.](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/us/politics/white-house-coronavirus-trump.html) What is happening in the administration is a good example of what would had taken place multiplied many times over in the financial world too. The ones that disagree are barking up the wrong tree; testing and masks for every one are needed before coming back to a resemblance of what it was before and the ones that are just fleecing states for medical and equipment and not ramping up efforts to get proper masks and testing for all need to explain why other nations where able to do so and not the USA. > **[The Four Men Responsible For America's COVID-19 Test Disaster](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/covid-19-test-trump-admin-failed-disaster-995930/)** > > White House’s inability to track the coronavirus as it spread led to the worst disaster United States has faced in nearly a century. > [@](#): > > The White House’s inability to track the disease as it spread across the nation crippled the government’s response and led to the worst disaster this country has faced in nearly a century [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/7rl4c-jr7g0/maxresdefault.jpg "Coronavirus VI: Testing: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rl4c-jr7g0) > [@](#): > > Experts are right, in managing a pandemic there is almost nothing more important than widespread effective testing, it is your only chance of tracking and containing the spread from the start. Unfortunately tests have been alarmingly scarce in this country despite the fact the president has repeatedly claimed that that is not the case even declaring in early March that anyone who wants a test can get a test. But that wasn’t true then and it still isn’t true now. > > As you probably know from seeing countless stories like this: > > Reporter: "Dawn Clements in Largo Florida, who has been sick since Friday; her daughter went through it two weeks ago, and she has all the symptoms, no flu, and can’t get tested. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/155 "2020-05-11T02:03:01Z")
[We shouldn’t be reopening until the people charged with taking care of us have masks, at a bare fucking minimum](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-nurse-without-an-n95-mask-raced-in-to-treat-a-code-blue-patient-she-died-14-days-later/ar-BB13ROGF) ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/156 "2020-05-11T02:11:12Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > It’s been 8 weeks. We’ve prevented the health care system from being overrun and it’s time to go back to work. We have experience now. Locales that shut down fastest and hardest recover fastest economically. The US administration did not react fast and furious enough and now we face the consequences of inept leadership. Opening up without restrictions guarantees further surges in infection and death rates, and slower financial recovery. Metaphor: Do not jump from moving train. > [@](#): > > There will be peaks and valleys going forward just as there will be improvements in treatments. “Peaks and valleys” means boxcar loads of corpses. Will you sacrifice your parents for the cause? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/157 "2020-05-11T02:13:40Z")
> [@GreysonCarlisle](#): > > THIS. IS. NOT. THE. FUCK. ING. FLU. dead is dead. If we’re going to shut the country down what’s the magic number of dead per capita? In other words, why don’t you care about large numbers of people who die because of the flu? > [@GreysonCarlisle](#): > > And fuck whoever those people happen to infect. Because they should have retired or monitored their blood sugar better or not had a heart or lung condition. Well we’re harming a 100 million people’s financial lives. Again, what’s the magic number to shut a country down and keep it shut down? Clearly 60,000 people don’t mean a thing to you because… flu? This is not about sheltering in place. We’ve already done that. It’s about the structured return to work. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/158 "2020-05-11T02:20:43Z")
Broke is broke. Dead is dead. They’re different. Broke can be recovered from; dead can’t. Can you cite a source showing that more deaths will improve the US economy? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/159 "2020-05-11T02:25:02Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > dead is dead. If we’re going to shut the country down what’s the magic number of dead per capita? In other words, why don’t you care about large numbers of people who die because of the flu? Read or watch the cites just posted please. > [@Magiver](#): > > Well we’re harming a 100 million people’s financial lives. Again, what’s the magic number to shut a country down and keep it shut down? Clearly 60,000 people don’t mean a thing to you because… flu? Speaking of the flu: > **[Flu numbers down thanks to COVID-19 - West Hawaii Today](https://www.westhawaiitoday.com/2020/04/18/hawaii-news/flu-numbers-down-thanks-to-covid-19/)** > > East Hawaii has had a marked drop in flu cases since measures to prevent COVID-19 have gone into effect. > [@](#): > > Chad Shibuya, director of infection control at Hilo Medical Center, said earlier this week that COVID-19 and the flu are both spread mainly through respiratory droplets when someone coughs or sneezes. > > Within three weeks of implementing COVID-19 prevention measures like increased hand-washing and not touching one’s face, and limiting opportunities for people to gather by shutting down schools and businesses, Shibuya said fewer flu cases are being seen in HMC’s emergency department. > [@Magiver](#): > > This is not about sheltering in place. We’ve already done that. It’s about the structured return to work. It would be convincing for a proposed way to proceed if there were good arguments for that rather than silly ones. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2020, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-people-react-if-covid-19-flares-up-when-the-lockdown-ends/852805/160 "2020-05-11T02:25:10Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > … And while the assumption has been that children who are not immunosuppressed do not suffer from severe COVID-19 symptoms, there is now growing evidence that some children do suffer from a Kawasaki-like illness causing them to experience severe vasculitis many weeks after contracting the virus; if this turns out to be more widespread than expected then schools may have to close again, and I have seen no plan to address that. … Let’s be clear, there is no assumption being made, it is an observation that children are at relatively very little risk of severe COVID-19. Very little is not the same as “do not”. It is just much much less than they do from influenza and the cases of “Pediatric Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome Temporally Associated with COVID-19” do not change that fact, even if they are an order of magnitude more widespread than expected. > [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > The problem with trying to dynamically adjust and graduate distancing protocols is getting the public to actually participate when needed. The social dynamics of the contagion are the biggest unknown in a giant pot of unknowns, and we’ve seen already how defiant and obstructive many people have been to even minimally intrusive (and marginally effective) measures such as cloth face coverings in businesses or asking people to refrain from large social gatherings like parties and ceremonies, much less repeated actual stay-at-home isolation measures. Expecting enough people to ramp up and down their interactions … I completely agree which is why I both think that it is unrealistic to think that the general public will cooperate with behaviors needed to get new infection rates very low and then with repetitive testing and quarantining in an ongoing basis for an indefinite future. And it is why I think intermittent approaches would not work. I think instead you open up gradually and slowly enough that the risk of having to reverse is low but fast enough that the risk of inadequate compliance is low as well. Parameters to be decided as discussed in the _Science_ article. > [@Dr.Drake](#): > > … There’s something wrong with a system that assumes the elderly are less valuable than other members of society. > > But the main thing I came in to say is that you’re falsely assuming a binary outcome: either you die of COVID or you don’t. That’s not actually the case: detailed reportsare circulating about individuals with long-term consequences, from mildly debilitating to severe, following recovery. Whether those are for a couple of months or lifelong is impossible to know. I haven’t seen anything like a percentage, but if you recover from the flu, you’re fine. That’s not necessarily the case here, and I’d really like to know what the actual health costs would be of just letting it run through the population. How many of us would recover, only to be unable to work again? Maybe there is something wrong with me then but I actually do think that a 28 year old entering parent of two entering the most productive working years of their life is “more valuable” than I would be at 84 and disabled. IF this was a trolley problem and you had to save one but let the other die, would you save that future me or the young adult? Who would you value more? That said it is not the choice being proposed even by **Magiver** (and I do not endorse his analysis). To some degree it is the opposite. Do an actual good job at protecting the vulnerable (which is not being done) while letting the lower risk people take the risks, in stages, if they wish. It is accepting the fact that some will die as more get exposed and that the way to minimize that number is to have more of those exposed be those at lower risk than higher risk. There is some rank order (that as of yet still has to be guessed at) of relaxation moves of least risk to increase numbers of hospitalizations and death over most benefit of decreasing deaths long term worldwide from economic collapse, as well as increasing quality of life and facilitating compliance. Figure that list out and go up it gradually as parameters allow. Opening up bars likely not first on the list. Crowded screaming sporting events not first either. Younger without other risk factors likely out and about first. You are very wrong by the way about influenza. Those who have ARDS from influenza are at substantial risk to have “consequences” for minimally months to even years afterwards. So far there is no evidence that those recovered from COVID-19 related ARDS are at any more risk of that than those with ARDS from influenza have been. It is not so always true that “if you recover from the flu, you’re fine” … But you are in good company thinking that influenza is a much less big deal each year than it is. It really is not as benign as many seem to think. That said, my initial hopes and even expectations that this would end up in a the range of a compressed very bad flu season have clearly been proven wrong. That would have been not “just” anything and would have been very very bad and avoiding that, trying to flatten it out so it would not be so compressed would have been worthwhile. This is worse but even more it is its own thing and requires its own response appropriate to what it is. 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