# How will the GOP establishment try to kill the Trump nomination? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 11, 2016, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812 "2016-02-11T13:39:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2016, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/121 "2016-02-23T22:50:55Z")
I’ll also say this, delegate wise there is little difference between Rubio and Kasich. Rubio did really well in South Carolina and got 0 delegates. There’s a debate on 2/25, and if Rubio doesn’t do well in Nevada that may be all the justification that Kasich needs to stay in and make a big pitch on 2/25 that he should be the guy everyone is getting behind, not Rubio. Anyway, we’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/122 "2016-02-24T15:46:16Z")
I think now that we’re starting to see evidence that Trump is going to get at least some of the supporters of anyone who drops out, it isn’t enough for the other candidates to just coalesce into a “not Trump” camp. To be honest, and I’m guilty of this, I think a lot of people significantly **underestimated** the fact that Trump was going to get at least some portion of the supporters of anyone who dropped out. I assumed most of the establishment lane for example would have a very low percentage of voters who had Trump as their second pick, but polling on this shows that while he’s not the “first 2nd pick” for any establishment lane candidate, he is \> 10% for several of them (including Bush who has dropped out.) He’s a huge favorite among Carson and Cruz supporters as a second pick, the two guys likely to get weaker in the coming weeks. So basically it’s not enough for Rubio to just scream that “he’s the one” and the party to lean on Kasich and beg Carson to go home. I think they need to find a way to reduce Trump’s vote share base, because that really attacks the problem. If you can’t do that, I think the idea of getting “100% of all votes from other candidates as they drop out” is actually pie in the sky, that to me seems more unlikely than directly attacking Trump and trying to find a way to reduce his vote base. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/123 "2016-02-24T16:01:44Z")
The real question is whether any other candidate will be able to pick up Trump voters if he eventually loses. Those guys seem to be fully committed at this point and unlikely to be anywhere as excited for anyone else. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/124 "2016-02-24T16:31:46Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > There have been many stories about establishment Republicans being mortified of the idea and talking with each other about killing his campaign. Can you link to some stories that aren’t from Democrat-oriented sites? Or sites that support his Republican opponents? Have any of the GOP establishment who aren’t supporting Trump’s opponents actually come out and said that they’re against Trump? ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/125 "2016-02-24T16:41:47Z")
I was surprised to hear Larry Sabato say on NPR this morning that the only way to stop Trump is if everyone but Cruz drops out and all the other candidates and the establishment get behind Cruz (as if). I wondered why he didn’t say Rubio could alternately be the beneficiary; but I suppose it’s what **Martin Hyde** says: Cruz’s voters tend to have Trump as their second choice while Rubio’s do not. If his analysis is correct, people are pricing it all wrong at Betfair, where Rubio is given about a 40% chance at the nomination, Trump 50%, and Kasich and Cruz get between two and three percent each. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/126 "2016-02-24T16:49:53Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Does the Republican nomination process involve superdelegates? Some states have three superdelegates (the state’s two Republican National Committee members and the head of the state’s Republican Party); others have none. ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/127 "2016-02-24T16:51:13Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > The real question is whether any other candidate will be able to pick up Trump voters if he eventually loses. Those guys seem to be fully committed at this point and unlikely to be anywhere as excited for anyone else. We have a Trump Voter holding forth in the Pit right now. It seems doubtful that he would support any other candidate. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/128 "2016-02-24T17:12:29Z")
There’s no way they can topple Trump without trying to force an open convention. If either Rubio or Cruz drops out to help the other, Trump will eat up a good bit of both of their support. Many Rubio people may simply not vote in the primary when the options are Cruz and Trump. The best strategy for the establishment is leaving everyone in (except maybe Carson). Both Cruz and Rubio must significantly step up their game. First Cruz must win in Texas. If Trump wins, it’s over. Then Kasich must win Ohio, where he trails by a bit. Also Rubio must win Florida. If they lose any of those states, it’s probably over, but if they win its a possibility they force an open convention where the hacks will try to nominate Rubio or Paul Ryan or Romney (just throwing names out). The problem will be the Trump maniacs at the convention. They would simply walk out if anyone but Trump gets the nomination. I’m sure the Trump campaign has a contingency for that situation. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/129 "2016-02-24T17:19:44Z")
> [@Bridget\_Burke](#): > > We have a Trump Voter holding forth in the Pit right now. It seems doubtful that he would support any other candidate. It maybe all comes down to whether Trump would agree to play kingmaker. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/130 "2016-02-26T11:41:46Z")
It appears they have enlisted Romney. His last few Tweets, [like this one](https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/702914516338798592), have been pretty scathing toward The Donald. Perusing his timeline, it doesn’t look to me like he normally does this kind of thing. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/131 "2016-02-26T14:23:52Z")
The long knives came out last night. Romney has just shown us the country made the right decision 4 years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/132 "2016-02-26T14:32:24Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > It appears they have enlisted Romney. His last few Tweets, [like this one](https://twitter.com/MittRomney/status/702914516338798592), have been pretty scathing toward The Donald. Perusing his timeline, it doesn’t look to me like he normally does this kind of thing. Who cares what Romney has to say except for the establishment Republican types that Trump is running against? Rubio and Romney can high-five each other and say “Sick burn!” while everyone else remembers Romney as the guy who had to be trolled into giving up his taxes, thinks half of America is a bunch of parasites and overwhelmingly lost the last election. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/133 "2016-02-26T14:33:33Z")
I think at this point, it comes down to a question of what the party’s goals are. _Why_ do they want to stop Trump? Is it because they want to maximize their chances of winning this election, or do they want to keep the party stronger in the long term? Because a brokered convention that does not choose Trump, despite him having a 40something plurality, might possibly salvage the party’s chances this year, it would absolutely destroy the party in the process. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/134 "2016-02-26T14:34:01Z")
I think within the GOP primary electorate, his word carries more weight than you might think. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2016, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/135 "2016-02-26T14:47:05Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I think within the GOP primary electorate, his word carries more weight than you might think. I think this is a far different GOP primary electorate than usual as evidenced by the very high turnout rates compared to 2012. But maybe Romney will be more influential than George W Bush, Fox News or the Pope. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2016, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/136 "2016-02-27T00:26:27Z")
[Looks](http://www.gunsmokenet.com/GunsmokeTGAW/Marks-Stuff/Gunsmoke/collectables/TVGuide/TVG-641024/original.jpg)like they just sent [Mitt Romne](http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/270650-romney-theres-a-bombshell-in-trumps-tax-returns)y to be the enforcer. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2016, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/137 "2016-02-27T03:36:55Z")
Epic landslide in the making: [https://twitter.com/JonahNRO/status/703403950154842112](https://twitter.com/JonahNRO/status/703403950154842112) ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2016, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/138 "2016-02-27T21:16:45Z")
To answer the OP: nothing much: [Inside the Republican Party’s Desperate Mission to Stop Donald Trump](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party.html?_r=0): > [@](#): > > In public, there were calls for the party to unite behind a single candidate. In dozens of interviews, elected officials, political strategists and donors described a frantic, last-ditch campaign to block Mr. Trump — and the agonizing reasons that many of them have become convinced it will fail. Behind the scenes, a desperate mission to save the party sputtered and stalled at every turn. > > Efforts to unite warring candidates behind one failed spectacularly: An overture from Senator Marco Rubio to Mr. Christie angered and insulted the governor. An unsubtle appeal from Mitt Romney to John Kasich, about the party’s need to consolidate behind one rival to Mr. Trump, fell on deaf ears. At least two campaigns have drafted plans to overtake Mr. Trump in a brokered convention, and the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has laid out a plan that would have lawmakers break with Mr. Trump explicitly in a general election. > > Despite all the forces arrayed against Mr. Trump, the interviews show, the party has been gripped by a nearly incapacitating leadership vacuum and a paralytic sense of indecision and despair, as he has won smashing victories in South Carolina and Nevada. Donors have dreaded the consequences of clashing with Mr. Trump directly. Elected officials have balked at attacking him out of concern that they might unintentionally fuel his populist revolt. And Republicans have lacked someone from outside the presidential race who could help set the terms of debate from afar. > > … > > Should Mr. Trump clinch the presidential nomination, it would represent a rout of historic proportions for the institutional Republican Party, and could set off an internal rift unseen in either party for a half-century, since white Southerners abandoned the Democratic Party en masse during the civil rights movement. > > Former Gov. Michael O. Leavitt of Utah, a top adviser to Mr. Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, said the party was unable to come up with a united front to quash Mr. Trump’s campaign. > > “There is no mechanism,” Mr. Leavitt said. “There is no smoke-filled room. If there is, I’ve never seen it, nor do I know anyone who has. This is going to play out in the way that it will.” Really, the “establishment” does not have much authority within the party. Their problems were compounded by indecisiveness. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/139 "2016-03-03T20:37:18Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > [Looks](http://www.gunsmokenet.com/GunsmokeTGAW/Marks-Stuff/Gunsmoke/collectables/TVGuide/TVG-641024/original.jpg)like they just sent [Mitt Romne](http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/270650-romney-theres-a-bombshell-in-trumps-tax-returns)y to be the enforcer. Right [here](http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/03/03/mitt-romney-donald-trump/). ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/140 "2016-03-03T20:39:24Z")
Wow, that is getting serious. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812.md?page=8)