# How will the GOP establishment try to kill the Trump nomination? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 11, 2016, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812 "2016-02-11T13:39:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/141 "2016-03-03T20:46:31Z")
It’s interesting that the Republican Party since at least Reagan is the real architect of their own fiasco. They’ve been preaching for decades that government wasn’t to be trusted, and they’ve gotten that message across quite effectively. But somehow, the Party seemed to think that their message would only apply to Democratic candidates and elected officials. Instead, their base has embraced it for candidates of both parties, and the Republican establishment is left twisting in the wind. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/142 "2016-03-03T20:52:55Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > How will the GOP establishment try to kill the Trump nomination? [They’ll invent a new branch of mathematics: > [@](#): > > In an effort to counter the real estate magnate’s rapidly growing lead in the delegate count, GOP statisticians announced Wednesday they had successfully developed an entirely new branch of mathematics for formulating scenarios in which Donald Trump does not win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. “By expanding on pioneering work in the fields of applied statistics, higher-order logic, and number theory, we’ve arrived at a new branch of mathematics that provides for a multitude of feasible outcomes in which Donald Trump is not the 2016 GOP nominee,” said Dr. Jeffrey Larson, who has led a team of more than 30 statisticians who have been working around the clock at RNC headquarters to establish new mathematical properties since the wealthy businessman won the New Hampshire primary by a 20-point margin. “The new field required several breakthroughs on the manipulation of Boole’s inequality principle, and some of our models are still only predictive within certain artificial stochastic conditions. However, this new discipline of Nonlinear Computational Probability finally establishes a practicable methodology by which there exist possible paths to the nomination for Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz.” At press time, Larson announced the team had devised a new method of abstraction and mathematical induction in which lower numbers have a greater numerical value than their higher counterparts. ]([http://www.theonion.com/article/gop-statisticians-develop-new-branch-math-formulat-52463](http://www.theonion.com/article/gop-statisticians-develop-new-branch-math-formulat-52463)) ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/143 "2016-03-03T20:57:29Z")
This clearly indicates to me that #nevertrump is for real. They will do whatever it takes first to try to deny him the nomination, then to deny him the presidency if that fails. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/144 "2016-03-03T21:03:43Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > This clearly indicates to me that #nevertrump is for real. They will do whatever it takes first to try to deny him the nomination, then to deny him the presidency if that fails. No they won’t. If he wins the nomination they will support him in the election. What other choice do they have – to officially concede that the Democratic candidate is better and ask Republicans to vote for the Democrat? To tell their base to stay home, and conceded the election by default? Nope, won’t happen. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/145 "2016-03-03T21:12:16Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > No they won’t. If he wins the nomination they will support him in the election. What other choice do they have – to officially concede that the Democratic candidate is better and ask Republicans to vote for the Democrat? To tell their base to stay home, and conceded the election by default? Nope, won’t happen. No, they will mount a third party effort a la John Anderson in 1980 but with more teeth behind it. They will insist that this is the “real” GOP. It won’t be with an eye to actually winning, of course, but to giving mainstream Republicans someone to vote for rather than Hillary, and then wiping the slate and starting over in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![kurtisokc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/bbce88/32.png) [@kurtisokc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kurtisokc)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/146 "2016-03-03T21:13:42Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > No they won’t. If he wins the nomination they will support him in the election. What other choice do they have – to officially concede that the Democratic candidate is better and ask Republicans to vote for the Democrat? To tell their base to stay home, and conceded the election by default? Nope, won’t happen. I can only speak for myself, but this particular republican (who has voted for every republican nominee in the general election since 1996) will definitely NOT be voting for Trump in November. I might vote for Hillary as the lesser of two evils, or for a 3rd party candidate, but it will not be for Donald. I know of at least one other self-identified Republican who has said that he would vote for ANY other candidate in the race (including Bernie!) rather than Trump. Believe me, there are a LOT of republicans out there who will absolutely refuse to vote for Trump. Many of them may just stay home rather than voting for Hillary, but they will not vote for Donald. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/147 "2016-03-03T21:17:58Z")
> [@kurtisokc](#): > > I can only speak for myself, but this particular republican (who has voted for every republican nominee in the general election since 1996) will definitely NOT be voting for Trump in November. I might vote for Hillary as the lesser of two evils, or for a 3rd party candidate, but it will not be for Donald. I know of at least one other self-identified Republican who has said that he would vote for ANY other candidate in the race (including Bernie!) rather than Trump. Believe me, there are a LOT of republicans out there who will absolutely refuse to vote for Trump. Many of them may just stay home rather than voting for Hillary, but they will not vote for Donald. I certainly won’t dispute many individuals will do this, but sitting it out or endorsing the Democrat won’t be something the Republican Party endorses. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/148 "2016-03-03T21:20:38Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > No they won’t. If he wins the nomination they will support him in the election. What other choice do they have – to officially concede that the Democratic candidate is better and ask Republicans to vote for the Democrat? To tell their base to stay home, and conceded the election by default? Nope, won’t happen. Yup, I can’t see it, either…particularly not the “stay home” idea, as it would cede not only the presidential race to the Democrats, but also many other contested races. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/149 "2016-03-03T21:21:40Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > No, they will mount a third party effort a la John Anderson in 1980 but with more teeth behind it. They will insist that this is the “real” GOP. It won’t be with an eye to actually winning, of course, but to giving mainstream Republicans someone to vote for rather than Hillary, and then wiping the slate and starting over in 2020. IMO there is zero chance of this. If Trump wins the nomination, he IS by definition the Republican candidate. The Party as an institution won’t just cast off the results and declare that everybody at the convention who voted for Trump are now some kind of renegades and are no longer Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/150 "2016-03-03T21:22:38Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > I certainly won’t dispute many individuals will do this, but sitting it out or endorsing the Democrat won’t be something the Republican Party endorses. I’m not saying the actual official GOP will do it “on the record”. They are doing it by having people like Romney, McCain, etc., as their proxies. If Drumpf earns the majority of delegates, the official party machinery will give him whatever their rules say they have to, and not an iota more. They will give him their official “support” in the most unenthusiastic, lifeless manner possible. Oh, and that’s right: the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader have also denounced him. What more proof do you need? ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/151 "2016-03-03T21:29:10Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I’m not saying the actual official GOP will do it “on the record”. They are doing it by having people like Romney, McCain, etc., as their proxies. If Drumpf earns the majority of delegates, the official party machinery will give him whatever their rules say they have to, and not an iota more. They will give him their official “support” in the most unenthusiastic, lifeless manner possible. > > Oh, and that’s right: the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader have also denounced him. What more proof do you need? They will endorse him after the convention. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/152 "2016-03-03T21:32:34Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > No, they will mount a third party effort a la John Anderson in 1980 but with more teeth behind it. They will insist that this is the “real” GOP. It won’t be with an eye to actually winning, of course, but to giving mainstream Republicans someone to vote for rather than Hillary, and then wiping the slate and starting over in 2020. But, what would be the point? If they don’t do what you’re describing, the worst thing that can happen from the Pub Establishment’s POV is that Trump loses, and the second-worst thing is that he wins. But if they do take the unprecedented step of mounting a third-party effort, the Republican brand-name is muddled, which is much worse; they’d run the risk of causing a fracture that can’t be healed and watching **both** “Republican” parties running their own candidates in future elections – thereby splitting opposition to the Dems, and neither party ever winning anything outside solid-red counties. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/153 "2016-03-03T21:44:12Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But, what would be the point? If they don’t do what you’re describing, the worst thing that can happen from the Pub Establishment’s POV is that Trump loses, and the second-worst thing is that he wins. But if they do take the unprecedented step of mounting a third-party effort, the Republican brand-name is muddled, which is much worse; they’d run the risk of causing a fracture that can’t be healed and watching **both** “Republican” parties running their own candidates in future elections – thereby splitting opposition to the Dems, and neither party ever winning anything outside solid-red counties. I believe they first of all don’t see any good options if they can’t stop him from being nominated. But I think they see the party’s brand name being “muddled” as being worse than having it be taken over by Drumpf. I further don’t think (and I agree with them) that Drumpf is going to mount any kind of ongoing third party, any more than Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose Party had any lasting legs. But I don’t see how you can watch the biggest names in the party attack Drumpf in no uncertain terms, and think they are going to then take it back and make nice in a couple months. It’s one thing if your opponents in the primary do this: even though it has been awkward with Christie, people do understand the idea that you’re running against each other, and then come together later. But for the last two GOP nominees, and the Speaker of the House, along with at least one sitting senator, to denounce him like this when they did not run against him in the primaries…that’s unprecedented and it’s not something you can just take back in the summer. They would look ridiculous to do that. You may think it was foolish of them to put themselves in that corner, but they did it. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/154 "2016-03-03T21:53:10Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > … But I don’t see how you can watch the biggest names in the party attack Drumpf in no uncertain terms, and think they are going to then take it back and make nice in a couple months. … Of course they will. It’s a no brainer. They are smart enough to know that either Trump or Hilary will win, and they would rather have Trump than Hilary, especially since throwing the election to her will mean an open civil war within their party. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/155 "2016-03-03T21:58:35Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Oh, and that’s right: the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader have also denounced him. What more proof do you need? Ryan denounced Trump? When did that happen? [This is the only mention of the two that I’ve seen today: > [@](#): > > House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) on Thursday said he “laughed out loud” when Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump warned on Tuesday that Ryan will get along with him or “pay a big price.” > > The new Speaker, just four months on the job, told reporters at the Capitol that he was watching Trump’s Super Tuesday victory speech live on TV in his office when he heard the real estate mogul and reality TV star issue a vague threat. > “I just laughed out loud, I think,” Ryan said. “Sometimes reality is stranger than fiction these days.” > > Still, Ryan predicted he could get along with Trump, whom he’s met only once before. > > “I’m a good-natured guy,” Ryan said. ]([http://thehill.com/homenews/house/271646-ryan-on-trumps-threat-i-just-laughed-out-loud](http://thehill.com/homenews/house/271646-ryan-on-trumps-threat-i-just-laughed-out-loud))That doesn’t sound like much of a denunciation to me. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/156 "2016-03-03T21:59:03Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > … I further don’t think (and I agree with them) that Drumpf is going to mount any kind of ongoing third party, any more than Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose Party had any lasting legs. > … Even if Trump loses in Nov he’ll have given a big leg up to the idea that there’s a big rejectionist voter base out there free for the taking. You’re probably right that Trump isn’t the guy who runs that ball forward in 2018 & 2020 & beyond. But \*somebody \*will see the Rs have fumbled the ball; they’ll pick it up & start running it downfield. [aside] IMO only, but misstating the guy’s name does nothing to enhance your argument’s credibility. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/157 "2016-03-03T22:35:45Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But, what would be the point? If they don’t do what you’re describing, the worst thing that can happen from the Pub Establishment’s POV is that Trump loses, and the second-worst thing is that he wins. You may have that order reversed. I’m not sure what the establishment will do. I do think that I know: 1. The establishment is incompetent. They started seriously gearing up against Trump about 4 days before Super Tuesday. No exaggeration. Jeb’s Super-Pac spent about the same attacking Trump as Kasich. Trump has yet to receive a Super-Pac ad-bomb. 2. The players in the establishment will proceed as follows: a. Trump is going to lose anyway this November (unless/until the economy goes south). b. How will my support or lack of it affect my career? Usually mid and high level operatives get brownie points for supporting a losing candidate. Not clear that will happen this year. 1. The electronic right wing media and wingnut welfare are [elephants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elephant_in_the_room) residing in the back of the room. So we have a number of moving parts. And our gut intuitions really don’t apply this year, as we are experiencing a once per 50 year re-alignment of some kind. (Could get a repeat in 2020 though. In fact we probably will: WWII occurred because of unresolved issues from WWI.) Also, BG: we need to dust off our voting reform advocacy. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/158 "2016-03-03T23:13:42Z")
Ryan denounced him over the KKK thing and the anti-Muslim thing, according to [this article](http://thehill.com/homenews/house/271267-ryan-denounces-trump-over-kkk-controversy-there-can-be-no-evasion-and-no-games) I saw when googling “ryan denounce trump.” ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/159 "2016-03-03T23:48:06Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Ryan denounced him over the KKK thing and the anti-Muslim thing, according to [this article](http://thehill.com/homenews/house/271267-ryan-denounces-trump-over-kkk-controversy-there-can-be-no-evasion-and-no-games) I saw when googling “ryan denounce trump.” And if you read the articles that say that, it’s clearly a fiction. Here’s some quotes from the article you linked (bolding mine): > [@](#): > > “I try to stay out of the ups and downs of the primary, but I’ve also said when I see something that runs counter to who we are as a party and a country, I will speak up,” **Ryan said Tuesday, without mentioning Trump by name**. "If **a person** wants to be the nominee of the party, there can be no evasion and no games. **They** must reject any group or cause that is built on bigotry. > [@](#): > > Just weeks after his election as Speaker, **Ryan condemned Trump’s proposal** to ban all Muslims from entering the U.S. — a plan Ryan said was unconstitutional because it violates the freedom of religion. > > "This is not conservatism,” Ryan, the GOP’s 2012 vice presidential nominee, said at the time. “What was proposed yesterday is not what this party stands for and, more importantly, it’s not what this country stands for.” He never denounces Trump; he denounces the things that Trump said. There’s a huge difference there, and as your link notes, it isn’t an accident: > [@](#): > > Trump, a political outsider riding a wave of anti-establishment anger, appears unconcerned about offending minorities and other groups. But both Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) are aware they need support from many of those voters to protect Republican incumbents running in swing districts and swing states. ETA: Also, as I noted above, just today Ryan said he could get along with Trump should Trump win the election. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812/160 "2016-03-03T23:59:50Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > …IMO only, but misstating the guy’s name does nothing to enhance your argument’s credibility. Don’t need it, may as well rock 'n roll. Anybody not convinced by the bleeding obvious isn’t going to be persuaded by civility. (You _do_ know, right, that its a John Oliver bit that’s bled into the memeshphere?) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-gop-establishment-try-to-kill-the-trump-nomination/745812.md?page=9)