# How will the Israel and Iran conflict play out? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 13, 2024, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247 "2024-04-13T22:12:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2024, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/1 "2024-04-13T22:12:48Z")
I’m starting this thread so as not to hijack the MPSIMS thread. How do you all think this will play out? I don’t see any way this works out for Iran. In other times (before 2/2022) I’d say they could at least count on Russia to help against any retaliation from Israel and the US, and that threat would keep things from escalating. Now? I’m guessing at the very least air strikes against military targets within Iran proper. I’d guess there’s very little chance of any serious threat against Israel. What do you all think? ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2024, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/2 "2024-04-13T22:20:30Z")
I am pro Israel all the way. So is God, imho. Its odd that Iran announced it instead of by surprise. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2024, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/3 "2024-04-13T22:23:07Z")
> [@SuntanLotion](#): > > Its odd that Iran announced it instead of by surprise. I’m not sure that they had a choice. Any attack they launch will have to go across Iraq, and that’s going to take some time. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/4 "2024-04-16T22:05:40Z")
I’m reasonably sure that Benjamin Netanyahu does not want to launch a counterattack against Iran. The thing you have to understand about Bibi is that he’s a coward. Not in any physical sense, but rather that form of moral cowardice commonly found among politicians - the refusal to make any decision unless they absolutely have to. That man will never take any decisive action, any risk unless his back is against the wall. It’s why he hasn’t ordered the attack on Rafah, it’s why he refuses to form an exit strategy for Gaza, it’s why he avoided dealing with the Palestinians for over a decade, leading to the mess we’re in right now. The only times in his career as Prime Minister where he’s acted decisively was when he was dragged there by more people more extreme than him, and when his own political ass was on the line. So no, he doesn’t want to attack. He wants to bluster, he wants to threaten, he wants to rattle his saber - but he doesn’t want to _do_ anything. God I hate that man. Of course, that doesn’t mean that he won’t do anything. Not due to pressure from the far right (who are probably shitting their pants right now), but rather pressure from the more decisive men and women of action to his left, both in his coalition and in the opposition, as well as from the government and the military. More importantly, he’ll do what he feels he has to do to get votes. After running for 15 years on a “tough on Iran” platform, he can’t just ignore an attack like this, not if he wants more than an ice cube’s chance in hell of getting reelected. That pressure, those political realities may force him to take action; on the other hand, he may find a way to weasel out of me. Understand me: I’m not saying that Bibi should order a massive attack on Iran, or any attack at all. I’m just saying that if he decides not to, he should make that decision for valid strategic reasons, and not because he’s afraid to take the risk. In short, I have no idea what will happen. Sorry. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2024, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/5 "2024-04-16T22:54:05Z")
I don’t think Iran wants to escalate this fight and I think Biden understands that if the US is dragged into a war with Iran his chance of re-election will be in serious jeopardy. What Israel wants, I am not sure after all they were the ones who bombed the Iranian consulate apparently without informing the Americans in advance. If they do escalate the next rounds of ballistic missile attacks by Iran will cause a lot more damage and there are all sorts of ways Iran could escalate using its proxies. It could spin out of control very fast with multiple negative consequences for the world economy. If I had to guess I think Biden will be able to get it under some kind of control. He has handled this crisis poorly and the war has gone on for far too long but he or at least his advisers probably understand that he has very little rope left. A full fledged war with Iran will lead to a revolt by the progressive left and massive demonstrations. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/6 "2024-04-17T03:03:14Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > After running for 15 years on a “tough on Iran” platform, he can’t just ignore an attack like this, not if he wants more than an ice cube’s chance in hell of getting reelected Not necessarily. Bibi doesn’t want to ignore 74% of the voters. > **[Poll: 74% of Israelis oppose counterstrike on Iran if it harms security...](https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-74-of-israelis-oppose-counterstrike-on-iran-if-it-harms-security-alliances/)** > > Over half of Hebrew U. survey respondents see need to consider political, military demands from allies; say US aid in thwarting attack obligates Israel to coordinate future actions ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/7 "2024-04-17T04:08:47Z")
> [@Lantern2](#): > > A full fledged war with Iran will lead to a revolt by the progressive left Why, necessarily? They’re not reflexively supporters of any Muslim country or government just for the sake of being a certain religion or race. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/8 "2024-04-17T12:14:55Z")
No, but they are reflexively anti-war, regardless of who it’s against. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2024, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/9 "2024-04-17T15:02:31Z")
> [@SuntanLotion](#): > > I am pro Israel all the way. So is God, imho. Yeah, there are right wing Israeli politicians telling us to thank God for the missiles and drones that got shot down. Personally, I think they are saying that because they don’t want to give any credit to the pilots, who they previously described as “leftist traitors who forgot what it means to be Jewish” when they went against Netanyahu’s little judicial reform project. So I think we should give credit and credit is due, and celebrate those left wing traitors. HUZZAH! I’m not saying YOU said this, but it’s an issue that’s been on my mibd lately, and your post made me think of it. > [@Alessan](#): > > The thing you have to understand about Bibi is that he’s a coward. Not in any physical sense, but rather that form of moral cowardice commonly found among politicians - the refusal to make any decision unless they absolutely have to. That man will never take any decisive action, any risk unless his back is against the wall. It’s why he hasn’t ordered the attack on Rafah, it’s why he refuses to form an exit strategy for Gaza, it’s why he avoided dealing with the Palestinians for over a decade, leading to the mess we’re in right now. The only times in his career as Prime Minister where he’s acted decisively was when he was dragged there by more people more extreme than him, and when his own political ass was on the line. So no, he doesn’t want to attack. He wants to bluster, he wants to threaten, he wants to rattle his saber - but he doesn’t want to _do_ anything. God I hate that man. This is the best description of Netanyahu that I have ever read. Kudos. > [@Alessan](#): > > After running for 15 years on a “tough on Iran” platform, he can’t just ignore an attack like this, not if he wants more than an ice cube’s chance in hell of getting reelected. Netanyahu’s stance on Iran has literally been, “no one but me is strong enough to keep them from attacking us; and if they attack us, it will be horrificly costly, you don’t want to risk that - vote for me!”. For Iran to attack Israel despite “big, strong Bibi” being in office is a blow - his implicit promise was that if we would put him in power, they would not _dare_. (Sort of like how Oct 7 wasn’t supposed to happen on his watch…) > [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > No, but they are reflexively anti-war, regardless of who it’s against What could perhaps be ideal (especially because it would actually massively aid Ukraine as well) would be striking the factories that make the Shahed drones and the bases they’re stored at. The thing to consider is Iran’s response. They appear to be quite close to a breaking point in terms of domestic strife, but they’ve put the lid on the situation for now. These strikes on Israel were, at least in part, undoubtedly meant as a show of force for internal consumption. If they are hit, the question is how the population reacts, and what the regime feels they have to do because of this. It’s definitely a thorny situation, and I’m glad I don’t have to be involved with the decision making there. ---
**Author:** ![Kyomara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8edcca/32.png) [@Kyomara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kyomara)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2024, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/10 "2024-04-21T23:03:03Z")
I wonder what God thinks about Israel murdering thousands of innocent children. Heard anything? ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2024, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/11 "2024-04-21T23:09:39Z")
There’s a [Jewish holiday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passover) that celebrates God killing other people’s children so um… yeah. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2024, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/12 "2024-04-22T00:43:11Z")
For those interested in actual analysis rather than… whatever _that_ was, I can recommend Perun’s video on the topic. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/COBDSmx9QDw/maxresdefault.jpg "Iran's Missile Strike on Israel - The attack, defence & Israel's counter-strike") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COBDSmx9QDw) The key points he makes: 1. Iran’s attack was certainly not as big as it could have been, but it also isn’t likely to have been a total feint. Iran apparently used some of their newest, most advanced missiles. The most likely intention was to show that they can get through Israel’s air defense and cause significant damage to specific targets, without hitting anything sensitive enough to actually escalate matters. 2. Viewed through this lens, Iran achieved some of its aims - such as demonstrating that it is not deterred by Israel and is willing go take direct action - but it failed to demonstrate that it can defeat Israeli air defenses. 3. Israel’s response appears to have followed suit, striking a very sensitive target (an air defense platform at an Iranian airbase in the same province as key parts of their nuclear program) - demonstrating capacity and willingness to hit back but without escalsting matters further. The Israeli counter strike sends a very clear message, but caused so little damage that Iran can pretend nothing happened. It’s probably not the counter attack that Ukraine would have hoped for, but it does seem calibrated for deescalation. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2024, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/13 "2024-04-22T01:09:04Z")
Oh. And two more points. 1. Reports that up to 50% of Iran’s launched ballistic missiles failed on their own (and again, these aren’t old clankers, but some of their modern equipment). 2. At least one ballistic missile was intercepted above the atmosphere, unclear if by the US or Israel. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2024, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-israel-and-iran-conflict-play-out/1000247/14 "2024-04-22T07:45:30Z")
> [@Kyomara](#): > > I wonder what God thinks about Israel murdering thousands of innocent children. Heard anything? God checked out on October 7. I don’t know if He’s coming back.