# How will the Ukrainian election crisis be resolved?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [November 24, 2004, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539 "2004-11-24T22:09:24Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 24, 2004, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/1 "2004-11-24T22:09:24Z")
The Ukrainian election commission has declared the pro-Russian candidate, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the winner of Sunday’s presidential runoff election, defeating pro-Western opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko by 49.46% of the vote to 46.61%. But Yushchenko isn’t rolling over. Exit polls show him the winner, and he’s accusing the Yanukovych campaign of massive fraud. Most foreign observers, including Colin Powell, agree Yanukovych did not win, at least not honestly. Yushchenko has publicly claimed victory, taken a symbolic oath of office, and is calling for a nationwide strike in protest. See [http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/UKRAINE\_ELECTIONS?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=HOME](http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/UKRAINE_ELECTIONS?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=HOME), [http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/11/24/ukraine/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/11/24/ukraine/index.html).
What next? Can this be resolved without civil war?
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 24, 2004, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/2 "2004-11-24T23:35:02Z")
According to this cite – [http://www.pbs.org/newshour/extra/features/july-dec04/ukraine\_11-24.html](http://www.pbs.org/newshour/extra/features/july-dec04/ukraine_11-24.html) – exit polls showed Yushchenko beating Yanukovych by as much as 11 percentage points.
I find myself wondering if this situation adds support to the theories Samuel P. Huntington expounded in his 1996 book _Clash of Civilization._ He asserted that, with the end of the bipolar world of the Cold War, international conflicts and alliances will henceforth follow the lines of “civilizations” or cultural zones. And Ukraine, in his analysis, is split down the middle: Eastern Ukraine, historically dominated by Russia, is part of the “Orthodox” civilization, while western Ukraine, mostly Roman Catholic and at times ruled by Poland or by Austria-Hungary, is within the “Christian” civilization. And Ukraine has been politically split between pro-Russian and pro-Western forces ever since the USSR broke up. He sees the exact same division at the root of the conflict between Orthodox Serbia and Catholic Croatia. See [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clash\_of\_civilizations](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clash_of_civilizations).
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### Author:  [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/3 "2004-11-25T00:01:42Z")
I was mulling over a thread on this subject myself, so thanks for starting one. I refrained from doing so because I just don’t know enough about the situation, but I certainly do look forward to hearing from those who do.
One nit-pick: I think you mean the dichotomy between the Orthodoc east, and the \*\*Catholic \*\*west, not the “Christian” west, since the Eastern Orthodox Church is most certainly a Chrsitian church.
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### Author:  [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/4 "2004-11-25T00:17:11Z")
I didn’t know that the west was catholic and the east orthodox. But indeed, the way the country was split in two half on the political map was striking. I wondered about what could be the cause of such a divide.
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### Author:  [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/5 "2004-11-25T00:26:06Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Most foreign observers, including Colin Powell, agree Yanukovych did not win, at least not honestly.
I was rather startled to see Powell’s announcement that, in effect, it is the official view of the United States government to have no faith in the official announcement of the election’s winner. This puts the Bush administration directly at odds with the Russian government of Vladimir Putin, which backed the establishment candidate who is now being accused of fraud. This is a position the Bush team can’t have decided to take lightly.
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/6 "2004-11-25T00:28:22Z")
Partly that’s from Stalin’s redrawing the USSR’s internal boundaries to reward his supporters in the Ukraine (granting them previously-Russian Crimea and much of Russia proper). Part is also from the redrawing of the external borders in 1945 at Germany’s expense, taking in much of what had been Polish territory. There’s an ethnic divide too, but not in the same place as the religious one - very roughly, the east and Crimea are Russian Orthodox, the center Ukrainian Orthodox, the west Ukrainian and Polish Catholic.
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### Author:  [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/7 "2004-11-25T00:29:01Z")
> [@clairobscur](#):
>
> I didn’t know that the west was catholic and the east orthodox. But indeed, the way the country was split in two half on the political map was striking. I wondered about what could be the cause of such a divide.
The border between Poland and Ukraine has not been a constant. After WWII it was shifted westward, so that some of what we call Ukraine today was part of Poland before WWII. This might explain some of the Catholic/Orthodox division, since Poland has traditionally been a Catholic country.
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### Author:  [@Bromley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bromley)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/8 "2004-11-25T00:42:42Z")
When will people learn. If only there were American _and_ French observers, then if both said the election was rigged everyone would believe it.
Seriously, were there French observers present?
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### Author:  [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/9 "2004-11-25T00:55:47Z")
> [@Bromley](#):
>
> When will people learn. If only there were American _and_ French observers, then if both said the election was rigged everyone would believe it.
>
> Seriously, were there French observers present?
I don’t now if there were french observers, but the EU also denounced the elections.
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### Author:  [@gazpacho](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gazpacho)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/10 "2004-11-25T00:57:18Z")
> [@Bromley](#):
>
> When will people learn. If only there were American _and_ French observers, then if both said the election was rigged everyone would believe it.
>
> Seriously, were there French observers present?
The EU observers have pretty much said the same thing the the US observers have said.
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### Author:  [@Scruloose](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scruloose)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/11 "2004-11-25T00:57:48Z")
> [@Bromley](#):
>
> When will people learn. If only there were American _and_ French observers, then if both said the election was rigged everyone would believe it.
>
> Seriously, were there French observers present?
I believe they were:[Головна | Українське радіо](http://nrcu.gov.ua/index.php?id=148&listid=7277)
In looking around news sites, it seems that everyone is casting doubts on these election results. Shortly after the US made her statement, [Canada](http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1527&u=/afp/20041124/wl_canada_afp/canada_ukraine_041124201654&printer=1) followed suit. I also read that EU reps have made similar statements.
[http://www.adetocqueville.com/200411231713.ianhdsg16215.htm](http://www.adetocqueville.com/200411231713.ianhdsg16215.htm)
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/12 "2004-11-25T02:08:28Z")
> [@John Mace](#):
>
> One nit-pick: I think you mean the dichotomy between the Orthodoc east, and the \*\*Catholic \*\*west, not the “Christian” west, since the Eastern Orthodox Church is most certainly a Chrsitian church.
My mistake, not Huntington’s; he uses the term “Western,” not “Christian,” to describe the Catholic and Protestant nations of Europe, plus the U.S., Canada and New Zealand.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/13 "2004-11-25T02:26:44Z")
From [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine:](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine:)
> [@](#):
>
> Ethnic Ukrainians make up about 75% of the total population, ethnic Russians number about 20%. The industrial regions in the east and southeast are the most heavily populated, and about 70% of the population live in an urban environment. Ukrainian (the official state language) and Russian are the principal languages and although Russian is very widely spoken most of the population identifies Ukrainian as their native language. Other minorities include small groups of Romanians (with Moldovans, 0.8%), Belarusians (0.6%), Crimean Tatars (0.5%), Bulgarians (0.4%), Hungarians, Poles (0.4%) and Jews (0.3%).
>
> The dominant religions are the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, an Eastern Orthodox church, and the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, which practices eastern Christian rites but recognises the Roman Pope as head of the church. Most of the authority and property of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church belongs to the Moscow Patriarchy, while a separate Kiev Patriarchy declared independence from Moscow (after Ukraine declared independence) and attracted the most believers. In addition to these, there also is a Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church, as well as smaller Roman Catholic, Protestant, Jewish and Muslim communities.
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### Author:  [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/14 "2004-11-25T02:29:50Z")
> [@Scruloose](#):
>
> I believe they were:[Головна | Українське радіо](http://nrcu.gov.ua/index.php?id=148&listid=7277)
> ]
Just to point out that the following statement : “they believe that some technical mistakes are organizational drawbacks, rather than attempts to falsify the elections”, in your link, refers to the first “round” of the elections, not to the vote that took place sunday and has been allegedly rigged.
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### Author:  [@Scruloose](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scruloose)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/15 "2004-11-25T02:37:26Z")
Ah. I thought they were perhaps referring to pre-election procedures or set ups, or some such.
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### Author:  [@kingpengvin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kingpengvin)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/16 "2004-11-25T14:21:35Z")
So is this a sign of the reawakening of Bear? It seems more and more Putin is flexing his muscles and trying to regain control over former soviet states. This blatant tampering with the electorial process is just another move by Russia to exert its control over its former sphere of influence. I think we should be worried.
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### Author:  [@Capt\_B.Phart](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt_B.Phart)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2004, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/17 "2004-11-25T23:26:56Z")
Dirty tricks really are dirty in this election, Viktor Yuschenko was allegedly [poisoned](http://www.brama.com/news/press/2004/09/040923kaptur-yushchenko.html) (you can still see the effects in marks on his face in the TV pictures) it seems there were previous victims (if it really was a deliberate act) who weren’t so lucky and died.
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### Author:  [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapioca_Dextrin)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2004, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/18 "2004-11-26T14:22:40Z")
Just to supply an update on the situation, most (or at least some) of the Ukranian State run media has [switched sides](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4044791.stm). Previously, virtually no one in the Eastern half of the country was even aware that there were any problems.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2004, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/19 "2004-11-26T21:42:26Z")
Another update: the police and security services have announced that they will defend the Constitution and support the protestesters. Here’s a link to an interesting article from a Ukrainian-Canadian academic who’s currently in Ukraine: [It’s over. The Orange Revolution has won in Ukraine.](http://communications.uwo.ca/western_news/story.html?listing_id=16596)
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### Author:  [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2004, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-the-ukrainian-election-crisis-be-resolved/276539/20 "2004-11-26T22:47:19Z")
Could this be a repeat of what happened in Czechoslovakia-- ie, the Velvet Revolution? We can only hope…
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