How Will the United States End?

[bigpappadiaz]

It’s not that unlikely they go “tits up” if the dollar fails. OoooOOo, so many possibilities in our future. Why would the dollar fail? Because the money supply is going through the roof and people are losing their jobs and America is worth less every day.

[gooftroopag]

@xtisme

And of course none of this touches on how unlikely it is that Microsoft AND several other fortune 500 companies are suddenly going to go tits up this way. Hell, its unlikely in the extreme that MICROSOFT is going to go belly up Enron style.

I can agree that at the present time it would appear unlikely, but the future is uncertain and I will not concede on future events regardless how unlikely it seems today.

[XT]

I hesitate to ask but…what does the ‘dollar fails’ mean to you exactly? That the defacto standard that everyone pegs their currency too will no longer be the dollar? I would agree, thats bound to happen at some point. Whether this is a bad thing or not though is debatable (I think it would be a GOOD thing over all). Or does it mean something else to you?

What does ‘money supply is going through the roof’ mean to you exactly? Why do you have the impression that ‘people are losing their jobs and America’ (by which I take it to mean at some extraordinary rate…not simply that, as in every country on earth for all time people from time to time lose their job for various reasons)? Finally, what gives you the impression that ‘America is worth less every day’? What do you base this on? There actually is a perspective where this is a (quasi) valid observation…but I want to understand what YOU are getting at here.

I figure my questions are in vain from my experience in the 9/11 thread…but I have to ask.

-XT

[XT]

Sorry, my previous post was directed at bigpappadiaz for this:

@bigpappadiaz

It’s not that unlikely they go “tits up” if the dollar fails. OoooOOo, so many possibilities in our future. Why would the dollar fail? Because the money supply is going through the roof and people are losing their jobs and America is worth less every day.

@gooftroopag

I can agree that at the present time it would appear unlikely, but the future is uncertain and I will not concede on future events regardless how unlikely it seems today.

Fair enough. I was just trying to give you a feel for how unlikely what you were getting at is. There are plenty of more likely scenerios where by the US would lose its hyperpower status and just become another superpower among others.

-XT

[Lemur866]

OK, the dollar “fails”. I assume that means we go through a period of hyperinflation such that dollars are now worthless, businesses refuse to accept payment in dollars, and suchlike. A huge, wrenching, disasterous economic catastrophe. An economic depression, breadlines, soup kitchens, civil unrest, companies failing, CEOs jumping out of windows, draconian governmental attempts to restore order, the whole deal.

Thing is, countries have been been through such things. As I’ve said before. Chile. Argentina. China. The US. Germany. Russia. Japan. Why didn’t those countries cease to exist? Why would the US disintegrate, when other countries that have economic meltdowns, dictatorship, foreign occupation, civil war, and genocide manage to stagger back to normality?

What makes the US unique? We aren’t a conglomerate empire of different ethnic groups speaking different languages that can easily fracture into independant states when the hegemonic ethnicity can no longer dominate the others, like the Ottoman Empire, or the Austria-Hungarian Empire, or even the British or Spanish or Portuguese empires. OK, maybe we’d lose some of our overseas possessions in this economic collapse, Guam declares independence! It’s the end of America! Or something.

[BMalion]

@Lemur866

OK, the dollar “fails”. I assume that means we go through a period of hyperinflation such that dollars are now worthless, businesses refuse to accept payment in dollars, and suchlike. A huge, wrenching, disasterous economic catastrophe. An economic depression, breadlines, soup kitchens, civil unrest, companies failing, CEOs jumping out of windows, draconian governmental attempts to restore order, the whole deal.

[Bill Murray]

Dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!

[/Bill Murray]

[bitwise]

@gooftroopag

Ever been to Seattle? Any idea what kind of influence Microsoft has on Seattle? It’s huge, take out one of the largest employers and it’s easy to imagine what would happen. Think of the influence Microsoft has on the entire computer industry and how many companies use Microsoft products. Dell, located here in Austin, uses Microsoft in all their products. Take out their supplier and there goes support for Dell Diamond, the Dell Jewish Campus and let alone how many jobs would be lost just in the transition to another product (the Dell campus is HUGE, like a small university campus). Think of how many industries would have to transfer their systems over to other products, think of the cost.

Take a few more companies that have the kind of impact that Microsoft does and allow the same to happen. Not only would it erode consumer confidence in large companies it would erode investor confidence… and you don’t think that could have a huge impact?

You realize that Microsoft software would continue to function, even if Microsoft, as a company, collapsed. So they run a few years on expired licenses without official tech support from Microsoft, while they migrate to other non-Microsoft software. There is enough expertise to both maintain existing Microsoft systems (all those people taking those exams) and to make the transition to other software.

So the Seattle economy takes a hit, Silicon Valley sees a bump in the IT labor supply, and few dozen new start-ups appear in the Seattle area.

[gooftroopag]

@bitwise

You realize that Microsoft software would continue to function, even if Microsoft, as a company, collapsed. So they run a few years on expired licenses without official tech support from Microsoft, while they migrate to other non-Microsoft software. There is enough expertise to both maintain existing Microsoft systems (all those people taking those exams) and to make the transition to other software.

So the Seattle economy takes a hit, Silicon Valley sees a bump in the IT labor supply, and few dozen new start-ups appear in the Seattle area.

And what of people purchasing new computers? Places like Dell that have an agreement with Microsoft would suffer during their transition.

[mazinger_z]

@gooftroopag

And what of people purchasing new computers? Places like Dell that have an agreement with Microsoft would suffer during their transition.

Going the stictly legal route, many, many, many, companies have escrow agreements for the source code of the Software. Despite any bizzarre media misconception, software engineers in the US are still a pretty smart bunch of people. With access to the source code, they will run and maintain, and make updates, mods, etc. themselves.

The loss of M$ will mean a huge initial loss of tax revenue, but it will all shortly go back to a new status quo as other companies go to fill the void.