# How will we pay for the Syria quagmire? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 4, 2013, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972 "2013-09-04T05:26:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/41 "2013-09-04T23:33:31Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > If you want to start a debate about how many civilians died in the Vietnam War, please do so. In this thread I will simply say: > > 1. I am speaking only about this particular conflict-- Syria. > 2. I don’t accept your 4M number for Vietnam. [**Civilian deaths in Vietnam war**](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_casualties) Accept what makes you feel better. It’s only natural. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/42 "2013-09-04T23:35:26Z")
Well, Red DID try and cherry pick the dates and probably doesn’t accept Chinese deaths since it was their own people that killed them, as opposed to Evil Americans™. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/43 "2013-09-04T23:47:24Z")
I had a longer post about chemical weapons, their use since 1925, and deterrence, which promptly got eaten. I’ll just ask this question: if the U.S. bombs Syria, and Syria (or[the rebels](http://www.globalresearch.ca/did-the-white-house-help-plan-the-syrian-chemical-attack/5347542)) uses chemical weapons again, now what? (FWIW, the author of the previous link, [Yossef Bodansky](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yossef_Bodansky), claims to be the Director of the Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare for the U.S. House of Representatives from 1988-2004. IOW, not a “Mom’s basement” neckbeard Truther. A 1998 [article](http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/congress/house1.htm) from him about Iraqi WMDs on US Gov’t letterhead and stored at an USAF website. Not proof he’s right, but maybe more worth your time than listening to Alex Jones would be.) Returning to my question, does the U.S. bomb them again? If so, where? And is the U.S. prepared to face an “accidental” chemical agent release from a bombed stockpile? (That presumably will wipe out several busloads of nuns holding puppies.) Does the U.S. move towards actually raiding the stockpiles? Which’ll take much more bombing to degrade air defenses to where you can get assets in and out without killing them. What if the Russians say that’s enough? There are a lot of pitfalls waiting to trap the U.S, if it chooses to get involved in this civil war. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/44 "2013-09-04T23:54:01Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > [**Civilian deaths in Vietnam war**](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_casualties) > > Accept what makes you feel better. It’s only natural. There’s no mention of your beloved four million number in the article (which even if true would encompass all Vietnam War casualties-that is those inflicted by both sides). Such numbers are as exaggerated as those who claim seventy million died under Mao. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/45 "2013-09-05T00:10:27Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > I had a longer post about chemical weapons, their use since 1925, and deterrence, which promptly got eaten. I’ll just ask this question: if the U.S. bombs Syria, and Syria (or[the rebels](http://www.globalresearch.ca/did-the-white-house-help-plan-the-syrian-chemical-attack/5347542)) uses chemical weapons again, now what? (FWIW, the author of the previous link, [Yossef Bodansky](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yossef_Bodansky), claims to be the Director of the Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare for the U.S. House of Representatives from 1988-2004. IOW, not a “Mom’s basement” neckbeard Truther. A 1998 [article](http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/congress/house1.htm) from him about Iraqi WMDs on US Gov’t letterhead and stored at an USAF website. Not proof he’s right, but maybe more worth your time than listening to Alex Jones would be.) > > Returning to my question, does the U.S. bomb them again? If so, where? And is the U.S. prepared to face an “accidental” chemical agent release from a bombed stockpile? (That presumably will wipe out several busloads of nuns holding puppies.) Does the U.S. move towards actually raiding the stockpiles? Which’ll take much more bombing to degrade air defenses to where you can get assets in and out without killing them. What if the Russians say that’s enough? > > There are a lot of pitfalls waiting to trap the U.S, if it chooses to get involved in this civil war. Is it a viable option for the US (and the world community I suppose, such as it is) to simply ignore Assad using chemical weapons on his populace? We did with Saddam (and in a few other cases IIRC), so I guess we could with Assad as well. Should we always simply ignore it when a nation state, ruler or dictator does so? If so, then what are the prohibitions against the use of chemical weapons actually worth, if anything? Was it EVER worth anything, or was it always mere words on a paper? Those are really the only questions worth exploring if we are talking about cost. SHOULD we involve ourselves in the internal affairs of a nation state when the ruler of such a state uses WMD against his own citizens, or should we simply allow him to do what he wills? Should we continue to honor a prohibition against the use of chemical weapons by nation states or simply toss it on the trash bin and carry on, allowing countries to do whatever they want if they have the power to do so? ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/46 "2013-09-05T00:14:20Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > …Such numbers are as exaggerated as those who claim seventy million died under Mao. Take it up with [R.J. Rummel](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolph_Rummel). I lack the background to able to critically evaluate his research. The following quoted [discussion at necometrics](http://necrometrics.com/20c5m.htm#Mao) mirrors my feelings on the validity of the various cited death tolls: > [@](#): > > …Keep in mind, however, that official Chinese records are hidden from scrutiny, so most of these numbers are only slightly better that pure guesses. It’s pointless to get attached to any one of them, because the real number could easily be half or twice any number here…[and] > > …Notice that many early body counts (such as Walker) completely miss the famine during the Great Leap Forward, which was largely unknown in the west until around 1980. There are two contradictory ways to assess those early estimates which ignore the famine: > “If these are the numbers that they came up with without the famine, imagine how high the true number will be once you add the famine deaths.” > “Can we trust any of these numbers? After all, if they missed such a huge famine, they can’t have known very much about what was going on inside China.” > … so this line of reasoning will get us nowhere. In fact, the median of the 7 estimate that predate 1980 is 45.7M, which is almost the same as the median of the 7 estimates that post-date 1980 – 58M. (At this scale, a 12M difference counts as “almost the same”.) FWIW, 58 million is quite a bit less than 70 million, but the error bars are going to be so large on this statistic, I don’t consider the larger number greatly exaggerated. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/47 "2013-09-05T00:23:39Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Is it a viable option for the US (and the world community I suppose, such as it is) to simply ignore Assad using chemical weapons on his populace? We did with Saddam (and in a few other cases IIRC), so I guess we could with Assad as well. Should we always simply ignore it when a nation state, ruler or dictator does so? If so, then what are the prohibitions against the use of chemical weapons actually worth, if anything? Was it EVER worth anything, or was it always mere words on a paper? > > Those are really the only questions worth exploring if we are talking about cost. SHOULD we involve ourselves in the internal affairs of a nation state when the ruler of such a state uses WMD against his own citizens, or should we simply allow him to do what he wills? Should we continue to honor a prohibition against the use of chemical weapons by nation states or simply toss it on the trash bin and carry on, allowing countries to do whatever they want if they have the power to do so? To your question of is ignoring Syria viable? Yes. It has been the rule for every previous use of chemical weapons since WW1, not that there have been very many. Syria is not a signatory to the Convention and the U.N. has not issued a formal resolution authorizing military force. The U.S. is a signatory to the U.N. Charter, which bars the initiation of military force by a signatory, absent self-defense, or a U.N. resolution. Accordingly, I don’t see a pressing reason for the U.S. to shoot missiles at Syria. If the U.S. wishes to sanction Syria any more than they currently are, have at it. If private American citizens wish to go and help the FSA lift the yoke of Baathist tyranny, then they should go. They’d be joining an honorable tradition, including the Spanish Civil War and volunteers with the Royal Air Force during World War 2. As to what a treaty is worth, what are the enforcement mechanisms within the treaty? Again, Syria didn’t sign it. Should other nations attack the U.S. because the U.S. has used land mines in contravention of a very wide spread treaty banning them? Or should military force only be used where there is a compelling state interest such as self-defense or defense of a allied state? Finally, “allowing countries to do whatever they want if they have the power to do so” is the essence of international law, and is, frankly, what the U.S. would be doing here with a missile strike. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/48 "2013-09-05T00:38:34Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > [**Civilian deaths in Vietnam war**](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_casualties) > > Accept what makes you feel better. It’s only natural. The only number that makes me “feel better” is the true number. Your cite lists numbers about 100x lower than your claim. I am and was against the Vietnam war, but that doesn’t mean I will casually accept anything bad that someone posts about it. It was bad enough-- no need to exaggerate. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/49 "2013-09-05T03:09:40Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Borrow the money: interest rates are low. Also, deficit reduction is counterproductive when the economy is weak. > [@XT](#): > > Pure speculation here, but my WAG is the money will come from…taxes. You don’t get it. Our taxes don’t pay for our expenditures at it is. Last I heard, we have an annual budget deficit of ~$650 billion? So any new expenditure is really a new debt. Hitting the debt ceiling next month limits our ability to issue scads of debt in the absence of new revenues, no? > [@Smapti](#): > > How did we pay for the Libya quagmire? This isn’t the same thing. I thought the US was successful in Libya- we took out Khadafi’s military hardware from the air in time to prevent the rebels getting squished, and instead helped them claim victory. But there weren’t any WMDs Once we start bombing, the military action won’t seem to make sense unless it ends with seizing the WMDs. I think it’ll cost ~$1 trillion and kill ~1 million people. > [@ralph124c](#): > > Nobody has even hit on the real issue here: once we bomb Syria, we are now a belligerent. Right. It is like a diode- we’ll be in a state of war with Syria, and won’t just be able to step out of it. Right now it looks like Congress is debating authorizing air strikes for 90 days. McCain has suggested destroying Syria’s (formidable) anti-aircraft capabilities so we can really bomb the shit out of them. That ain’t cheap, but in the long run it still leaves the WMDs on the ground. > [@Rune](#): > > By sending the bill to the “Arab countries.” ([Kerry: Arab countries offered to pay for invasion](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics-live/liveblog/the-houses-syria-hearing-live-updates/?id=e68f139f-e012-476c-876e-2467ba30e5e3)) Presumable Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Like with Gulf War I, which may even have turned a small profit. > [@](#): > > Arab counties have offered to pay for the entirety of unseating President Bashar al-Assad if the United States took the lead militarily. That’s a much better answer. I wonder what they will actually pay for though. The article notes unseating Assad. I don’t think that would be the end of it, and getting to the end of it would probably cost [see above]. If critics disagree, well then let’s add my PAYGO funding mechanism to the bill. The costs of the Syrian engagement (and any further engagements fomented by it) shall be paid by an income tax surcharge on earners above $250k/yr. If the total costs amount to less than $1 billion, the PAYGO rules are waived and the bill is paid through the Defense Dept. Budget (or Arab states, in all cases). ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/50 "2013-09-05T04:08:28Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > The only number that makes me “feel better” is the true number. Your cite lists numbers about 100x lower than your claim. > > I am and was against the Vietnam war, but that doesn’t mean I will casually accept anything bad that someone posts about it. It was bad enough-- no need to exaggerate. No problem. Care to “casually\*” add most of the death toll in [Cambodia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambodian_Civil_War) and [Laos](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laotian_Civil_War)? All the happened “casually”: as in lobbing a football in your backyard, right? ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/51 "2013-09-05T04:12:21Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Well, Red DID try and cherry pick the dates and probably doesn’t accept Chinese deaths since it was their own people that killed them, as opposed to Evil Americans™. Best ever first generation American. Is there a prize? If so, I’d surely vote for you. That said, don’t forget why you are alive today. Or ask your Grandfather. [**U.S. military, a growing Latino army**](http://nbclatino.com/2013/01/01/u-s-military-a-growing-latino-army/) ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/52 "2013-09-05T04:12:44Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > No problem. Care to “casually\*” add most of the death toll in [Cambodia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambodian_Civil_War) and [Laos](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laotian_Civil_War)? > > All the happened “casually”: as in lobbing a football in your backyard, right? So in other words blame the US for everything bad that happened in Indochina. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/53 "2013-09-05T04:18:03Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > So in other words blame the US for everything bad that happened in Indochina. Add France. [AID FOR FRANCE IN INDOCHINA, 1950-1954](https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/pentagon/pent9.htm) warning. Pdf and a long read. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/54 "2013-09-05T05:02:49Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > No problem. Care to “casually\*” add most of the death toll in [Cambodia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambodian_Civil_War) and [Laos](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laotian_Civil_War)? > > All the happened “casually”: as in lobbing a football in your backyard, right? Hey, all you have to do is quote the section that supports your claim of 4M and we’re good. It was your claim, so quit posting links without quotes. Confucius say; he who links without a quote is hoping no one checks. Quote away, _mi amigo_. Quote away. n.b.: You and I are on the same side on this issue. I don’t know why you feel the need to push it beyond the point of factual information where I can no longer agree with you. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/55 "2013-09-05T05:12:50Z")
Just came across [this short article.](http://www.humanevents.com/2013/09/04/community-organizer-goes-to-war/) A very good point is made, which might cause some heads to explode. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/56 "2013-09-05T05:32:09Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > Just came across [this short article.](http://www.humanevents.com/2013/09/04/community-organizer-goes-to-war/) Just want to point out it was Reagan who allied with Saddam. W, of course, was staunchly against. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/57 "2013-09-05T05:34:30Z")
> [@](#): > > Al-Qaida not only did not take over Iraq, but got its butt handed to it in Iraq, where the U.S. and its allies killed thousands of al-Qaida fighters, including the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Who of course only stepped in the vacuum after Saddam’s regime had fallen. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/58 "2013-09-05T05:56:54Z")
Red Fury: _Ok, maybe we can evaluate Iraq in 500,000 years._ … I was making a wisecrack: I agree with your response. And I think an expert could provide a decent take on the effects of this hypothetical Syrian action in a decade and possibly quite a bit sooner. > [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > You don’t get it. Our taxes don’t pay for our expenditures at it is. Last I heard, we have an annual budget deficit of ~$650 billion? So any new expenditure is really a new debt. Hitting the debt ceiling next month limits our ability to issue scads of debt in the absence of new revenues, no? Not really. If we hit the default ceiling, we’ll have another political crisis which will affect matters across the board. I’m assuming it will be resolved. If it’s not, we’ll have worse worries than the failure to replace a few dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles next year. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/59 "2013-09-05T06:03:43Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Hey, all you have to do is quote the section that supports your claim of 4M and we’re good. It was your claim, so quit posting links without quotes. Confucius say; he who links without a quote is hoping no one checks. Quote away, _mi amigo_. Quote away. > > n.b.: You and I are on the same side on this issue. I don’t know why you feel the need to push it beyond the point of factual information where I can no longer agree with you. Meh! You are right. I’m no fan of Confusio_ **n** _. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2013, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972/60 "2013-09-05T06:10:23Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Red Fury: _Ok, maybe we can evaluate Iraq in 500,000 years._ … I was making a wisecrack: I agree with your response. And I think an expert could provide a decent take on the effects of this hypothetical Syrian action in a decade and possibly quite a bit sooner… Possibly. Never claimed to be infallible. Though on Iraq I was actually Omnipotent without trying too hard 😉 Hope it won’t happen again – I think the stakes are raised and hope to be wrong. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-will-we-pay-for-the-syria-quagmire/667972.md?page=4)