# How worried about the election are you? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 1, 2020, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514 "2020-11-01T23:58:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/102 "2020-11-02T17:40:01Z")
I agree that it’s no fun for him - in fact I think he’s in his own self-made hell. He’s trapped. He’s trapped the same way Bernie Madoff was trapped: he has to tell even bigger and bolder lies to cover up the smaller ones. Or to use another analogy, he walked into the bank thinking of how to get away with a bank robbery. But the robbery went bad, he shot the teller and the security guard, and now he’s in it deep. He has to do even worse things to keep himself out of jail, where he might end up anyway, but he’s going to fight like hell to stay free, and it doesn’t matter how he does it. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/103 "2020-11-02T17:41:20Z")
It’s not about Trump. Trump is the “point man” for for a lot of my anger, but there are a lot of con artists and gangsters in the world (including Donald Trump pre-2015) that didn’t inspire any more than mild indignation. The problem isn’t Trump, it’s the people that are elevating him to power. He s the tool of the well-funded forces that are looking to dissolve the separation of church and state. I see this election as a referendum on that movement. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/104 "2020-11-02T17:42:42Z")
I would just like to go to sleep and wake up on Friday. But I am very very worried. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/105 "2020-11-02T17:44:53Z")
I think all of that is true BUT I don’t think he is aware that he has brought it all on himself. (Apologies for using the word " aware" in a sentence about him.) For him it’s always someone else’s fault, the system is rigged, people are out to get him. He is a paradoxical combo of telling himself he is supremely powerful and yet always the impotent victim of the malice of others. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/106 "2020-11-02T17:49:03Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > …Cuz people are going to get mad if he is reelected…? This is just a Fox-brain talking point. As usual, they’re hyping up fear of what the other side _might_ do, in order to preemptively justify what they are _planning_ to do. If you’re wondering where the violence is actually going to come from, you need to look no further than Trump’s wink-and-nod approach to white supremacists planning to intimidate voters. What was it he said to the Proud Boys… “stand down, stand by” ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/107 "2020-11-02T17:51:47Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > What was it he said to the Proud Boys… “stand down, stand by” Small but important correctification: He very much didn’t say “stand down”. He said “stand back and stand by”. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/108 "2020-11-02T17:54:33Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Was 2016 _ **that** _ horrifying to watch? I was indeed surprised and found it very surreal and weird, but people talk about Election Night 2016 as if they went into a doctor’s office for a routine checkup and got told “You have cancer.” Serious question… do you care at all about family separations, immigrant-bashing, children in cages and being forced to stand trial as young as age 2, and almost a quarter of a million Americans dying from COVID? If you’re not horrified by that, then your opinion is irrelevant. However, if you _are_ horrified by that, ask yourself this: wouldn’t you have been horrified to know those things were coming over the next 4 years? No, I’m not saying the rest of us predicted COVID or the exact events that unfolded. But it was clear enough that we’d just elected a man capable of such great evil, cowardice, and incompetence. Everyone without a partisan-warped brain saw it and was appropriately horrified. ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/109 "2020-11-02T18:02:31Z")
Just two comments after reading the posts since my last one: 1. Don’t take that 90% chance of a Biden win to mean he’s a shoe-in. His lead in PA is only about 5%, which as 538 points out, is within the margin of error. Indeed, Biden’s lead in battleground states is fairly slim. As [Nate Silver points out](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-can-still-win-but-the-polls-would-have-to-be-off-by-way-more-than-in-2016/): > The polls were off by more than 7 points in 1980, for instance, underestimating Ronald Reagan’s margin of victory. (That would likely be enough for Trump to win in an election where he trails in the most likely tipping-point state, Pennsylvania, by 5 points.) Harry Truman [beat the final Gallup poll in 1948 by 9 points](https://news.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx) in an upset victory. And the polls missed by 5 points in 1996, underestimating Bob Dole. [Also](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/) But while a roughly 8-point deficit in the popular vote is hard to overcome — as of this writing, at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 7.8 percentage points — a 5-point gap is a lot easier to close. And that’s our current forecast in Pennsylvania: [Biden wins by 4.7 points](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/). Note the roughly 3-point gap between the popular vote and the outcome in Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping-point state. That’s similar to 2016, when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by around 2 points but lost the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, by just a little under 1 point. Silver says a Trump victory is “plausible.” 1. I agree that the majority of Republicans are not prone to violence. However, there’s a sizable minority who are ginned up and gunned up and who have been put on High Alert by the ravings of Dear Leader and Fox. Most of them will probably be full of sound and fury signifying nothing, but think of it this way: About 29% of Americans identify as GOP. Even if only 5% of them take to the streets/commit violent acts, that’s still close to 5 million people. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/110 "2020-11-02T18:03:02Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > In 2016 he ran the perfect campaign against a candidate many people hated and who ran the worst campaign since Dewey. How do you figure that? If Trump ran “the perfect campaign” and Clinton ran “the worst campaign since Dewey” why did she get more votes than he did? Or more than Dewey did for that matter? Clinton ran a great campaign. Her problem was she was running it in a system that was rigged against her by the Republicans. Saying Clinton lost because she ran a bad campaign is like saying all those black people in the South weren’t able to vote because they were bad at registering. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/111 "2020-11-02T18:04:35Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > No, I’m not saying the rest of us predicted COVID or the exact events that unfolded. But it was clear enough that we’d just elected a man capable of such great evil, cowardice, and incompetence. Everyone without a partisan-warped brain saw it and was appropriately horrified. And he turned out to be much worse – in fact: more evil—than my wildest, most negative fantasies. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/112 "2020-11-02T18:05:17Z")
Yup, except you were told that your country has cancer and it very well might be fatal. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/113 "2020-11-02T18:05:26Z")
> [@solost](#): > > But…Biden’s lead has tightened up to around 5-6 points in most of those battleground states, so it’s getting within the margin of error. If trump manages to take AZ, FL, OH, GA, NC, etc. and it comes down to Pennsylvania, because of that state’s vote counting process it will take days or weeks to get a proper count. That’s my big worry, Pennsylvania. And Ohio. I think Trump _will_ take AZ, FL, GA, and NC. That’s Trump Country. I don’t think Biden has a realistic shot in any of those states. It’s going to come down to PA and OH. Whatever happens there, it’s going to be by very, very narrow margins. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/114 "2020-11-02T18:09:42Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > That’s my big worry, Pennsylvania. And Ohio. I think Trump _will_ take AZ, FL, GA, and NC. That’s Trump Country. I don’t think Biden has a realistic shot in any of those states. It’s going to come down to PA and OH. Whatever happens there, it’s going to be by very, very narrow margins. Looking at the latest, I will say that Trump will get GA, Florida is more like a tossup, but I do think that Trump will lose Arizona and NC. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/115 "2020-11-02T18:09:56Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > How do you figure that? If Trump ran “the perfect campaign” and Clinton ran “the worst campaign since Dewey” why did she get more votes than he did? Or more than Dewey did for that matter? Credit where it’s due, Republicans understand that thanks to structural flaws in our system, Democrats cannot just win, they have to win by 3% or more. The Clinton campaign got bogged down in the quant, tedious business of persuading voters nationwide that she was the better candidate. This caused them to take their eye off what was happening in the so-called “blue wall”. Working the refs to negate the will of the voters… it’s not a particularly virtuous or honorable skill, but Team Trump had it in 2016 and nobody was adequately prepared for it. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/116 "2020-11-02T18:11:21Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > How do you figure that? If Trump ran “the perfect campaign” and Clinton ran “the worst campaign since Dewey” why did she get more votes than he did? Or more than Dewey did for that matter? Because Trump realized the campaign was for _electoral_ votes not popular votes and picked off many Obama-blue and purple states with high EV. Clinton ran for most votes total so she got what 55% of California votes? And that counted the same as if she won the state by one vote. And not only that, there is something telling that there were 8 faithless electors that cast ballots for someone other than Clinton (3 were invalidated) as opposed to 2 for Trump. And the Dewey question? Seriously? You’re not considering the population growth in the US over the last 50 years? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/117 "2020-11-02T18:14:28Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > Yup, except you were told that your country has cancer and it very well might be fatal. Come on, let’s not exaggerate. It’s not like the entire country would be laid waste by some disease because of Trump… Wait, I was going somewhere with this… ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/118 "2020-11-02T18:22:34Z")
Yeah, it’s a hard time for hyperbole these days. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/119 "2020-11-02T18:23:50Z")
> [@kayaker](#): > > That’s exactly what it was like. Yep. Except that everyone you know got the same diagnosis. I know two people who couldn’t get out of bed for days. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/120 "2020-11-02T18:24:14Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Come on, let’s not exaggerate. It’s not like the entire country would be laid waste by some disease because of Trump… Normally I disagree with everything you say. I wish this was one of those times. 😀 ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514/121 "2020-11-02T18:28:55Z")
For me, 2016 confirmed what I’ve been saying here for years: that red and blue America have diverged to the point where we are no longer countrymen and that our values are diametrically posed. I was hoping 2016 would prove me wrong. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-about-the-election-are-you/924514.md?page=7)