# How worried should we be about Swine Flu? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 25, 2009, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359 "2009-04-25T23:07:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![C3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/c3/32/3108_2.png) [@C3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C3)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/201 "2009-04-30T18:47:06Z")
> [@Alex\_Dubinsky](#): > > In an epidemic, the vast majority get the virus. A fraction of them actually show any symptoms. A fraction of those are at risk, etc. Infection does NOT equal “runny nose, and symptoms.” That’s a very common misconception. You could have the flu right now for all you know. Ah, okay, that makes sense. I’m trying very hard to keep thinking about this rationally and unemotionally. ---
**Author:** ![Freudian\_Slit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/5daacb/32.png) [@Freudian\_Slit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freudian_Slit)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/202 "2009-04-30T19:07:03Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Okay, here. I’m holding up the newspaper for you. 😃 I found some cute glow in the dark piggies, so I’m happy! ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/203 "2009-04-30T22:31:42Z")
Here’s a cite for cute pigs in the news, and also a fantastic way to catch swine flu! [http://sz0057.ev.mail.comcast.net/service/home/~/image001.jpg?auth=co&loc=en\_US&id=41060&part=2](http://sz0057.ev.mail.comcast.net/service/home/~/image001.jpg?auth=co&loc=en_US&id=41060&part=2) ---
**Author:** ![uglybeech](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/82dd89/32.png) [@uglybeech](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/uglybeech)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/204 "2009-04-30T23:13:38Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > It is odd that the government and medical authorities are making it sound more severe than most civilians think it will be. That must make us all nervous. We see 90 cases and think so what. They start closing schools and pounding the airwaves with PSAs. I just think they’re showing a better grasp of the implications of the phrase “we don’t know” than the public. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/205 "2009-05-01T02:09:53Z")
Meanwhile some [reassuring statements.](http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,3606923.story) > [@](#): > > As the World Health Organization raised its infectious disease alert level Wednesday and health officials confirmed the first death linked to swine flu inside U.S. borders, scientists studying the virus are coming to the consensus that this hybrid strain of influenza – at least in its current form – isn’t shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics. > > In fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare. … > > … Flu viruses are known to be notoriously unpredictable, and this strain could mutate at any point – becoming either more benign or dangerously severe. But mounting preliminary evidence from genetics labs, epidemiology models and simple mathematics suggests that the worst-case scenarios are likely to be avoided in the current outbreak. > > “This virus doesn’t have anywhere near the capacity to kill like the 1918 virus,” which claimed an estimated 50 million victims worldwide, said Richard Webby, a leading influenza virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn. > > When the current virus was first identified, the similarities between it and the 1918 flu seemed ominous. > > Both arose in the spring at the tail end of the flu season. Both seemed to strike people who were young and healthy instead of the elderly and infants. Both were H1N1 strains, so called because they had the same types of two key proteins that are largely responsible for a virus’ ability to infect and spread. > > The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health published genetic sequence data Monday morning of flu samples isolated from patients in California and Texas, and thousands of scientists immediately began downloading the information. Comparisons to known killers – such as the 1918 strain and the highly lethal H5N1 avian virus – have since provided welcome news. > > “There are certain characteristics, molecular signatures, which this virus lacks,” said Peter Palese, a microbiologist and influenza expert at Mt. Sinai Medical Center in New York. In particular, the swine flu lacks an amino acid that appears to increase the number of virus particles in the lungs and make the disease more deadly. I am not resting easy yet but this is good news. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/206 "2009-05-02T00:33:03Z")
Of course, it’s a total coincidence that a **secret Muslim** President would come to power just before a **swine** flu outbreak. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![j666](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de0a6/32.png) [@j666](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/j666)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/207 "2009-05-02T00:55:05Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Meanwhile some [reassuring statements.](http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,3606923.story)I am not resting easy yet but this is good news. Do you know which amino acid it is? Still, most people won’t praise authorities for handling a crisis well - and I do think this was handled very well. People are being kept informed; they are being encouraged to take reasonable precautions; research is progressing on the virus; I suspect lots of disaster plans have been dusted off and polished. If the flu is especially virulent, these early steps will have helped; if it is not, lots of municipalities will at least have updated plans that called for three ambulances that were sold last year, and we will all have been reminded to wash our hands. (But coughing into your elbow? Gross. Use a tissue.) ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/208 "2009-05-02T01:44:58Z")
> [@j666](#): > > I do think this was handled very well. People are being kept informed; they are being encouraged to take reasonable precautions; research is progressing on the virus; I suspect lots of disaster plans have been dusted off and polished. I agree. So far it looks like it is petering out. Before it was studied no one knew what it was capable of doing- it had (still has?) the potential to be 1000 Katrinas and worse. I’m glad the authorities are freaked out by it. Of course I take that back if this is all a part of some dastardly conspiracy :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![j666](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de0a6/32.png) [@j666](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/j666)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/209 "2009-05-02T02:10:37Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > I agree. So far it looks like it is petering out. Before it was studied no one knew what it was capable of doing- it had (still has?) the potential to be 1000 Katrinas and worse. I’m glad the authorities are freaked out by it. > > Of course I take that back if this is all a part of some dastardly conspiracy :dubious: You are the second person who referred to a conspiracy today. I don’t get it, what conspiracy could it be? Please share. I love a good Conspiracy Theory, but I do insist on the Theory part. ---
**Author:** ![DaphneBlack](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daphneblack/32/5389_2.png) [@DaphneBlack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DaphneBlack)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/210 "2009-05-02T02:35:33Z")
Is it even possible for there to be a ‘news event’ anymore which does not immediately come pre-loaded with its own Conspiracy Theory ™? ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/211 "2009-05-02T02:45:47Z")
> [@DaphneBlack](#): > > Is it even possible for there to be a ‘news event’ anymore which does not immediately come pre-loaded with its own Conspiracy Theory ™? Not since the Jews passed the “auto-conspiracy” rule at their Secret World Control meeting in 1991. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/212 "2009-05-02T03:11:07Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Not since the Jews passed the “auto-conspiracy” rule at their Secret World Control meeting in 1991. Say what? Dammit, I hate it when I miss staff meetings. ---
**Author:** ![newcrasher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/b3f665/32.png) [@newcrasher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newcrasher)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/213 "2009-05-02T03:16:34Z")
m-o-o-n, that spells flu! ---
**Author:** ![DaphneBlack](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daphneblack/32/5389_2.png) [@DaphneBlack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DaphneBlack)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/214 "2009-05-02T03:37:12Z")
Guys, you weren’t supposed to tell about the 1991 SWC! At least not until after the 2012 events are in motion! Now look what you’ve done. I’m going to have to inform the Rabbit-Kook. Have I said too much? ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/215 "2009-05-02T03:43:56Z")
FTR, I have regretted since the 1960s that I wasn’t born Jewish. Specifically, a New York Jew. Same with my wife. You guys raised snark to an artform. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/216 "2009-05-02T14:49:23Z")
> [@j666](#): > > You are the second person who referred to a conspiracy today. I don’t get it, what conspiracy could it be? Please share. > > I love a good Conspiracy Theory, but I do insist on the Theory part. I’m just playing games, sorry if I’m not remaining serious enough- there is a swine flu pandemic after all. Look- one post I say, 'This is no big deal… unless of course it’s _The Stand_. Then I say, ‘It’s a great response… unless of course it’s _a conspiracy_’. I’m just being a dork! But of course with any news story we can play the game, ‘What’s the conspiracy?’ where you immediately try to guess what conspiracy is behind it. This is lots of fun for some people until it gets confused with ‘There really is a conspiracy’- which I’m not saying. Is there one? ---
**Author:** ![Vlad\_Igor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/7feea3/32.png) [@Vlad\_Igor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Vlad_Igor)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/217 "2009-05-02T23:02:06Z")
I really like that [NCBI](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genomes/FLU/FLU.html) has the sequences for anyone to see. A few years ago when I was working up a new point mutation, I discovered the Poor Man’s analyzer: copy and paste the sequence of interest and the reference sequence below it into MS Word or MS Notepad; set the font to Lucida Console; use the spacebar to align and the text search to find a motif. I’ve done this with the nucleocapsid protein sequence for one of the California cases and compared it to the PR/8/34 H1N1 strain that was running around earlier this year. I found perhaps 20 amino acid changes, but I haven’t finished evaluating the amino acid changes (hydrophobic for polar or ionic and v.v.). Vlad/Igor, armchair molecular sleuth. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2009, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/218 "2009-05-03T01:38:55Z")
Works best if you use a monospace font. Open the two different windows and glance from one to the other real fast. Differences will stand out like a sore thumb. A poor man’s tachistoscope. No, I haven’t done it with DNA, but it works great when comparing drawings. But you don’t want to use Notepad for that, since it doesn’t do pictures. Except [ASCII Art.](http://www.chris.com/ascii/) Note: Some pictures NSFW under the “two click” rule. ---
**Author:** ![Zabali\_Clawbane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/ecd19e/32.png) [@Zabali\_Clawbane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zabali_Clawbane)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2009, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/219 "2009-05-03T02:20:15Z")
[Canada: 1st pigs found with new swine flu virus](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090503/ap_on_re_ca/cn_canada_swine_flu). What does this mean with regards to the virus mutating to be more virulent? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![DaphneBlack](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daphneblack/32/5389_2.png) [@DaphneBlack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DaphneBlack)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2009, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/220 "2009-05-03T02:55:15Z")
> [@Zabali\_Clawbane](#): > > [Canada: 1st pigs found with new swine flu virus](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090503/ap_on_re_ca/cn_canada_swine_flu). What does this mean with regards to the virus mutating to be more virulent? 😕 > [@article posted](#): > > ‘The new virus has shown no signs of mutation when passing from human to pig, Evans said.’ So it doesn’t look like any mutation is implied by this. It is swine flu, after all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359.md?page=12)